- The addition of Speights, Ellington, and Livingston has bolstered the bench and helped the team enjoy some recent success. How many of these players will play for the 2013 – 2014 Cavaliers?
Tyler, we are patiently waiting for you to do more things better. Work on that in the off-season.
Tom: At least Ellington. They will extend him the 3 million dollar qualifying offer. I assume Boobie will sign with a contender if he’s not traded before then and they will not extend a qualifying to Casspi. So it would seem they could use Livingston but he might want not want to play for 1 season which I am assuming is the only contract the Cavs would offer him to maintain the 2014 flexibility. Speights is under contract and is more valuable right now than his contract so he could actually be moved to a cash strapped team looking to win next year. I secretly hope Chris Grant makes a long-term offer to Speights similar to the deal Ferry gave Varejao. But I think Speights is gonna get paid. So I’ll go with at least 1, and probably not all 3.
Dani: Three. Speights has shown that he really enjoys playing with the Cavs, and playing with Kyrie Irving. He’ll cost around $6 million, but a big man with his offensive skills is well worth it. Ellington has a quick trigger from deep and solid defensive instincts, and he’s cheap as hell. Livingston has been a revelation off the bench. He can defend three positions, and facilitates intelligently from the point. I’m probably his biggest fan. The Cavs should do whatever necessary to hold onto Livingston for the next couple of years, within reason.
Mallory: My hope? All of them. My guess? Livingston for SURE – Livingston has become the leader of the second unit and one of our best defenders. While he can’t really shoot from long range, he’s great at attacking the rim from both sides and has excellent court vision for pushing the ball., (again, well documented that I’m obsessed with him, so I’m biased) Speights should also almost definitely be resigned – it’s pretty clear he has skills none of our other bigs have, plus an tougher attitude that this team BADLY needs. I’m not quite as sold on Ellington – spot up shooters are easier to find – but he comes cheap, so why not?
Nate: Speights will exercise his opt out and test the free agency waters. I’m not sure that he is a player that the Cavaliers should invest a lot of money in. If they can get him at $4-7 million per year, then he might be a good 3rd big, but if it’s more than that, it’s worth looking at some better players who can play center, like Tiago Splitter, Nikola Pekovic, Zaza Pachulia, or Al Jefferson. The advantage of Speights (and also Splitter) is that he can play both big man positions. If Speights’ price tag goes up around $8+ Mil, he’s not worth the money unless he can prove that his effort will remain consistent from night to night (always his biggest problem) and that he will post a decent field goal percentage. He ends up somewhere else, IMO – maybe by next week.
Livingston would be a nice fit as a veteran glue guy. He’s actually the Cavs best small forward right now, but it all comes down to salary. With his injury history and inability to shoot consistently, he’s a player who shouldn’t make more than $2 million a year. Given that he got waived twice this year, I think he’ll stick with the Cavs for a couple years.
Ellington is certainly worth a qualifying offer, and seems like a very solid rotation player on a good team due to his high three point shooting percentage and above average defense. I think he’ll be in Cleveland next year, possibly in lieu of Miles.
Kevin: I think Livingston is around for one more year. He is cheap, seems to be having fun, is playing well and makes the second unit look much more cohesive…I don’t know how many other teams he makes more sense for than the Cavs. Ellington and Speights are harder; the former is a restricted free agent, and the latter has a player option. What is their market value and is it worth it to the Cavs? (Side Bar: I get NBA salary data from hoopshype. They show Speights as not an option next year. Any ideas on this? Website error?)
2. Any more trades before the deadline? If not for the Cavs, who else is moving around the League?
Tom: If they can flip Speights into a 2014 top 15 pick they will do it. I imagine there will be at least 1 more trade where the Cavs are not the primary team, but that 3rd team that helps get the deal done. Basically playing middleman and reaping a small reward for the price of a bloated contract with 1 more year.
Dani: I think the Cavs already completed their big trade for the year. I know a Speights-for-pick deal has been floated as a possibility, but I’m not a proponent of the idea. Speights is a good fit in Cleveland, and the Cavs own plenty of draft picks this year. As for the rest of the league…Timofey Mozgov is on the way out. Andrea Bargnani is a possibility as well, but I doubt anyone will take him off of Colangelo’s hands. Every contender in the league should be trying to get their hands on J.J. Redick. I think he would make the Grizzlies in particular a serious threat to any team in the playoffs. The Bulls as well, for that matter.
Mallory: I don’t really like to go bonkers thinking about potential trades because it almost NEVER happens the way you’d expect. That being said, I’d be VERY surprised if the Cavs didn’t make a move. They have far too many picks/expiring contracts to sit, particularly in a year when a lot of teams seem to be in transition.
Nate: Speights will possibly be moved for a draft pick/young player to a team that needs help in the front court. Look for Grant to ask for 2014 draft picks for Speights. Boston, Dallas, Portland, and the Clippers could all use him for a playoff push. Of course, if they trade him to Portland and the Blazers beat out the Lakers for the 8th seed , it’s a counterproductive trade. Miles would be an intriguing option for a team that needs shooting.
The big question is, “will Ainge blow up Boston?” I think no. KG’s no trade clause will make it tough, and the Clippers or Houston will be the only options. I’d LOVE to see KG in Houston, and Houston upset the power structure in the West.
There will be a few more minor moves, and there will be more sellers than buyers. Bad teams with bloated contracts are going to float those players. Guys like Bargnani will be available for a song. Also, everyone on Phoenix will be available. Minnesota will be trying to dump contracts too.
Kevin: Between Boobie’s expiring contract and current non-rotation status and Walton’s big final-year deal, the Cavs could certainly still be players. I don’t want to prognosticate too much on that though…in Grant I trust. I still think that Philly and Portland should consider trades, even if they don’t. Both are outside-looking-in for the playoffs, have large future payroll commitments, have jettisoned upcoming draft picks, etc…a slight change of course seems reasonable.
3. Cleveland won 6 of their last 9 and has five straight home games. How many more victories this season, and how many ping-pong balls?
Tom: Start with 32 wins (no significant injuries) and start walking backwards. I’ll just guess 26 wins good for 5th worst = 88 ping pong balls.
Dani: As many as are needed to make the playoffs. Just kidding, of course. I’m not going to predict exact win totals, but I think the Cavaliers will win enough to land in the 3-5 range.
Mallory: I’m not sure how many games The Cavs have left and against who (alright, they have 34 left). My guess is they win another 10-12 games. I’d like to think higher than that, but my gut keeps telling me to check myself, so I’ll go ahead and trust it. I bet the Cavs end up with the 7th pick in this draft (with one or two teams jumping higher than us in the lottery.)
Nate: 15 more wins to get to 29 for the season, if Speights isn’t traded. 11 more wins if he is traded. Cleveland will get out of the cellar and finish with a better record than Sacramento, Phoenix, New Orleans, Charlotte, Washington, and Orlando in the lottery just to lower the qualifying offers down the line. We’ll end up picking 3rd in the draft.
Kevin: I’ll say 18 more wins and 33 for the season. While likely a best-case scenario, I guessed that many at the beginning of the season – might as well roll with consistency. Cleveland picks 9th in the draft.
4. Pick any player on the team and make some random predictions about the rest of their season.
Tom: Tristan Thompson will have a 20-15 game this season. It will be awesome. And people will take to twitter and the blogs to ensure that one day he could average 20-15.
Dani: From here on out, Kyrie Irving averages 27 points and 6 assists a game on 50% shooting. He hits two more game-winners and breaks seventeen pairs of ankles. Kyrie ends the season with a PER over 25.00, and the pundits declare him a no-question top-10 player in the NBA.
Mallory: I think Speights ends up averaging 15/8 for the rest of the year, off the bench. The guy is clearly a baller who was criminally misused on his previous teams – now he’s being given more playing time on a team where he doesn’t really have to worry about sharing shots or minutes. That’ll bode well for a guy whose career MPG is well under 20.
Nate: Tristan Thompson pushes keeps his FG% up over .500 by till the end of the year, and raises his Free Throw percentage up to 66% (a shocking 11% improvement over last year). 13 and 10 will end up being his final totals. He’ll push his assists up past his turnovers, too. (Editors Note: After this was written, the Charlotte Game pushed TT up over .500. Let’s hope he keeps it there).
Kevin: Jon Leuer averages a double-double.
Just kidding. Dion raises his seasonal PER to 13.3 and his offensive rating to 100 while maintaining 25 usage.
5. The Cavs recent top-five picks receive a lot of press; what do you think about Tyler Zeller? What does his future hold?
Tom: I’m underwhelmed by Zeller. He doesn’t shoot as well as I anticipated and he doesn’t play like a “legit” 7 footer. If he wants to be a solid rotation player he’s going to have to become a load in the post or automatic from 18 feet. Right now he’s neither. He fires lots of long 2s and only makes about a 1/3 of them.
Dani: I’m a little disappointed in Tyler Zeller. The skinny frame and weak defense were expected. But the poor shooting and ridiculous frequency of traveling violations were not. In a few games he has shown real tenacity rebounding the ball, but he shouldn’t be playing as much as he does. Of course, that’s by necessity so I can’t complain much. But do you remember Jae Crowder? He was one of the picks we traded away. Think the Cavs could use him? I do.
Mallory: Zeller is difficult to read. So far he hasn’t really delivered on any of the skills he was billed as having – he hasn’t run the floor particularly well, he can’t really shoot the midrange, and he hasn’t played with the smarts we’ve really expected. In addition, he’s generally a liability against bigger, stronger centers (especially since he can’t really stretch the floor on O) and hasn’t really rebounded well. Still, I actually like a lot of what I’ve seen. His shot may not be falling, but eventually it will – he was too consistent in college to continue missing wide open jumpers. He’s never going to be a big time defender, but he’s already shown a penchant for being pesky and getting into opposing centers heads. Furthermore, he’s a good O rebounder who’s shown flashes of the smarts we’ve expected. As he continues to adjust to the NBA game I expect to see him greatly improve. Maybe not to the extent of a great starter, but definitely enough to be considered a good rotation player.
Nate: Zeller has hit the rookie wall. He can’t get his legs into his shot, and he can’t keep weight on. Developing and using upper and lower body strength, and maintaining that muscle mass will be his biggest NBA challenges. He’s a smart enough player that he’ll figure this stuff out, but I’m not sure he’ll ever be an NBA starter. He needs to do a lot of work in the off season, both with a trainer and nutritionist, and with shooting and defensive coaches. By the second half of next year, I am hopeful his field goal percentage goes over 46% and that he’s a more confident one on one defender. I hope he can be a quality big man who can play both positions off the bench.
Kevin: I liked Zeller this summer. Some of the skills that I liked, he has shown; his team defense occasionally shines, exhibited by fairly prodigious charge drawing and a decent blocked shot rate. Don’t get me wrong, his defense still needs plenty of work, both from a team perspective, but certainly as a man-to-man defender. He just turned 23 and is a rookie, so I am maintaining hope.
On offense, almost everything needs to go better. Last year, he posted the fourth-best offensive rebound rate in the ACC; in the NBA, he is well below average for a center and only makes 46% of his field goal attempts once he grabs a board. Touted for soft touch, he shoots below average inside of ten feet. Buoyed at North Carolina by frequent and successful transition opportunities, he only has 26 chances this year, and converted only twelve (the team needs to get stops to get transition opportunities). He’s only had 13 post-up attempts, but hasn’t deserved more anyways, as he made only three. He misses two-thirds of his jumpers…at least there’s the 77% free throws?
Keep you head up, Tyler. I know you have some skills to show.
Good questions. Nice responses. Good work guys.
Fellow writers –
I would be SHOCKED if we could flip Speights for a top 15 pick. I doubt that happens
Semi-unrelated trade talk… I’m wondering if the Cavs are involved in the supposed trade talks between Toronto and Chicago in the Boozer trade talks? They don’t really have the pieces to make a fair swap for both sides it seems?
Also, looks like a good opportunity to get another 1st rounder. Toronto will be in cap trouble soon if they bring in Boozer without moving another one of their larger contracts. Maybe Grant takes back a future Toronto unprotected (or top-3 protected?) for taking Fields’ albatross of a contract (2 more years @ $6.25 mil/year)? Tossing back Cassipi and Gibson’s expiring contracts in return. It helps make the money work, otherwise Toronto will have to give up Amir or Ross in the deal to make Chicago really consider it.
What do you guys think of overpaying Speights a bit if we have to, with the idea that we can trade him down the line if he doesn’t work out or we need another piece? Kind of like what Denver did with Nene (though he wouldn’t get paid THAT much). It seems like there are always contenders who are one quality big short, or weird teams like Washington who like to handicap their long-term flexibility.
Yes, I’m using the first person plural pronoun.
Pete -
I actually like Landry – he might be overpaid, but we have money. I’d be down with that trade. He’d probably end up starting at SF for us.
and by US I meant the Cavs. Ha.
Jon – I’m completely fine with paying Speights. I HIGHLY doubt we’re going to pay him any dollar amount that would somehow handcuff us – What’s the difference between 4 mil and 6 mil a year when our owner doesn’t care? Nothing. If Speights keeps up his current pace, he better end up a long-term member of this team.
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=a7rn3en I forgot to mention San Antonio as a team that could desperately use Speights. This trade gets us a backup point guard prospect and a top 5 protected 2014 draft pick. Maybe we throw in one of our second rounders to even it out. The Spurs are trying to get Al jefferson right now, but I don’t think it happens. This would be a nice backup plan for them.
Remember, The Cavs can trade Speights to a contender and STILL try to sign him in the summer.
Pete: Landry Fields has a terrible PER, but he’s a really underrated defender. So he’s not as bad of a contract as you might think.
I don’t understand why Speights has suddenly become the new untradeable guy. If we can get decent value for him, of course we should trade him. He’s a FA soon enough and probably not good enough that we care if he leaves or stays.
As far as Zeller, of course he will improve.
I don’t know what you read Cols, but nobody said Speights was untradeable. Tom and Nate both think he might be moved and they didn’t seem to be distraught over it.
1. Probably only Ellington, although I could see Ellington and Livingston
2. There will probably be more trades, but I don’t really have an idea of what they would be. If we can make a decent trade we will. It’s a real shame that Andy got injured again otherwise we could ship him out.
3. 26 wins
4. Waiters has a 30 point game
5. Zeller will get better over the summer and be a good rotation big man next year.
Just for contract issue clarity, the Cavs will have to decide whether or not to offer him the $3million tender. If they don’t, he is an unrestricted free agent. If they do, he is a restricted free agent. I could definitely see a team offering him him a guaranteed three year deal worth around $10-12 million, and then the Cavs have a decision on their hands.
Speights has a player option for next season that he will likely turn down, and become an unrestricted free agent. Dani’s guess at $6 mil sounds about right, but I could see it getting to a three year, $21 mil deal too. SO many teams have cap space.
I feel like Livingston would be restricted, just from our experience with Gee, but I don’t really know. Good stuff here, guys
Great questions and thoughtful answers. I personally would love to see all three guys back with the team next year. If it ain’t broke… There’s no denying the instant cohesion and chemistry that has come from Livingston, Speights and Ellington. Now, I want lottery picks as much as the next fan, but at a certain point creating a culture of winning to show the young guys (KI, TT, Dion, Zell) that this is a place they can win and thrive becomes more important. None of these three guys seems like hired guns playing for the next contract. They actually look like they genuinely enjoy being here. I’ll admit to being slightly baffled by the idea of flipping Speights for yet another first round pick this year. The man can play, is only 25, is very likely affordable and loves being in Cleveland. Yes, he’s the kind of piece that playoff bound teams covet, but aren’t the Cavs on the verge of being a playoff bound team in the next year or two? Wouldn’t they covet a player like that very soon? Just keep the man. Neither Ellington or Livingston should cost much either and they’re more than worth the price to keep.
The only trade I see them still swinging is something with Boobie or CJ to a contender. This summer or next year, they’ll have a decision to make with AV (especially if TT continues to evolve at a rapid clip and they keep Speights).
With the remaining schedule and the way the team is clicking, barring injury or trade, 30 wins shouldn’t be out of the question.
Agree with Nate that Zeller has hit the rookie wall. But given that he’s been thrown in as a starting C for half the season as an underweight, wide-eyed rook, he’s not been too bad. He seemed to have a lot better games before AV went down. Coming off the bench against second unit bigs seemed to come with better results (at least on his mid range shot). At least he’ll be battle-tested next year regardless, and should be even better off the bench.
Fields may be a good defender, and at one time could hit the 3, but $6.25/year is WAY too much for what he brings to a team. I think he would be a sneaky-good pickup for the Cavs, but even if he returned to his rookie output he’d still be relatively overpaid. Plus for Toronto, he’s going to be getting even less playing time now that they brought in Gay and have DeRozan/Ross to fill out the 2 guard spot.
Bottom line is that 3 years @ $6.25mil for a guy who will be playing 15-20 minutes a night is terrible when getting rid of him means you won’t be paying elevated luxury taxes, and the other alternative would be getting rid of Amir Johnson after already giving up Ed Davis to bring in Gay. It would be good for Toronto in a money sense, and better than giving Johnson back to the Bulls (as having Deng and Butler, Chicago wouldn’t want Fields). With some $30+ million in cap space eaten up by Gay/Boozer, there isn’t a ton of cap space left to be paying out $6mil contracts.
Mallory
I agree. Let Speights play out the year. If he keeps up his current production, pay the man. Given the Cavs cap situation, it would be tough for them to handcuff themselves with one contract.
I don’t see the Cavs trading him, not with Andy being a question mark. In fact, I wonder if having Speights makes Andy more tradable. I don’t like saying that because I like Andy and appreciate how he plays with a non-stop motor. But he is 30 and Speights is 25. It’s something to consider.
BTW, excellent article.
Completely agree with EvilGenius on every one of those points. Eventually you have to start saying the future is now – All three of these guys have value to our team – we’re not in tank mode anymore, right? We’re winning games and all? You really want to forego that for ANOTHER pick?
Making too many small moves, especially RE: players who could actually be a part of the future, is how shrewd GMs out-smart themselves. We have an actual bench now – add a good starting SF and a tough center (doesn’t even have to be a star – just someone who is intimidating) and we’ll have ourselves an really competitive team. Why mess with that?
“Tristan Thompson pushes his FG% up over 50 by the end of the year”
Nate, its not a prediction when its already happened.
Mallory
No, this not how you build a team. You build a team by getting value for your assets when you make a move. If Speights doesn’t want to play for what the Cavs are offering him, it would be better to trade him. Considering that they aren’t going to win the title next year, it’s OK to think a couple of years down the road here.
Same with Andy, we should probably try to trade him this off-season or at next year’s deadline. Considering they are probably going to be contending for a playoff spot next year, I think the time to trade him will be this summer.
I think if Mallory was in charge, we’d end up overpaying every free agent around just so we could maybe make the playoffs. Patience is what you need.
@ EvilGenius
“I personally would love to see all three guys back with the team next year. If it ain’t broke… There’s no denying the instant cohesion and chemistry that has come from Livingston, Speights and Ellington. ”
Well said. Why disrupt things to take a chance that you might get a player that’s more productive than Speights. Not to mention, he would probably take a few seasons to develop. It’s time to move the to the next step.
…It’s time to move the rebuilding to the next step.
Chris Grant will not overpay to keep marginal guys like Speights and Ellington. If they want to come back at decent prices, then sure. If not, there are always more guys like that out there.
Remember, we got those guys for next to nothing. There is no reason to act like we couldn’t find those types of players again once the current rotational type of players get expensive.
Kyle: Responses were written before the Charlotte game, where Tristan’s 7-8 pushed him up over the .500 mark. I hope he can maintain this FG% till the end of the year. I made an update to reflect this. Thanks for noticing.
Good stuff guys. I would like to keep all three of our new bench additions, but how about this for facilitating the Toronto – Chicago trade? Obviously Cavs would need to get some draft picks in this deal.
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ad2h7fb
That’s a hefty price for 2014 draft picks, Bonus.
I think Speights, Thompson, Waiters, Ellington, and Anderson are all pieces. Speights was most definitely underestimated by his prior teams. The CAVS have plenty of draft picks, no need for them (it would be ideal to get into the top 4 again this year). Draft work ethic versus developmental talent. All they have to do is get better and make this an ideal destination for Lebron.
Speights is 25 years old. He is getting better. Trading him for a young big man would be a huge mistake. If the CAVS want another young big man (like Demarcus Cousins), trade the draft picks. I am keeping Speights.
Cols714
In the last five games, Speights has shot .525%. That ranks 7th among PFs. He currently ranks 5th in rebounds per 48 minutes.
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/rebounds/sort/avg48Rebounds/position/power-forwards
IMO he’s playing better than marginal. We’ll see if those numbers hold up over the rest of the season. But if they do, they would be wise to keep him.
@Cols
Is there something you don’t like about Speights’ game? He’s the first big off the bench and could easily be a starter (although i’d hate to see them mess with the bench chemistry at this point). Even though the last five games is a small sample size, he’s been terrific so far. Does a marginal player have a 21/10 game against OKC and their formidable front line? Granted, this could all change over the last 34 games, but even though he has been underutilized by his previous teams, it’s not like he hasn’t shown flashes of his capability in the past. What do you see about him that doesn’t seem appealing?
@Mallory-
“we’ll have ourselves an really competitive team. Why mess with that?”
We mess with that because having a really competitive team is not the goal. Their stated goal is to be a championship level team. I’m not saying make moves for the sake of making moves, but if a trade is available that makes us worse this year, but improves our long term picture, absolutely do it.
I do hope we keep all three bench guys though. If we draft a high usage SF or sign Lebron, Ellington seems like the PERFECT 3 and D SG to play between Kyrie and a high usuage SF while letting Waiters come off the bench. An even better version of Sefalosha.
It is a hefty price, I’d prefer the Cavs keep Spagett, I would assume Cavs would want unprotected lottery pics in that scenario. I would move him for Demarcus Cousins in an instant though, Cousins is a beast.
My dream trade would be this:
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=d2ptr8r
Give Sacramento their pick back and some other 1st rounders we have. We take Salmons albatross contract back and boom they now have Cap Space. No way this happens though. Maybe if we give them Gee and Gibson instead of Walton? http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=bfptor8 they would do it. Probably would have to send them Speights in this deal though. http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=bj846rw
I’d love to see Pick and Roll 2 man game with Kyrie and Cousins.
I have no problem with Speights’ game. When you find a guy for cheap, you use that guy while he is cheap and when he starts to get expensive you get rid of him. This is what you should do with all non-essential players on the team.
If they can sign Speights for cheap, then sure no problem. But you don’t overpay for guys like that. Especially when it seems like Grant is very good at this talent evaulation thing.
Josh -
I agree if there is a chance to make a move that alters this team greatly and changes the landscape of our future greatly, do it. But trading Speights for bench fodder and some future picks probably doesn’t make us any more competitive, unless they’re unprotected picks from teams likely to fall HARD. Speights has a ton of value to us – he’s big man who can outright score, from basically anywhere. I don’t think that’s worth getting rid of for the 18th pick in 2016.
Mallory, wasn’t Speights picked 18th in his draft? Just sayin…
Josh
They run the risk of having that backfire. Especially with a draft pick. What the Cavs have now is working. The bench was a weakness, now it’s a strength (hope I’m not jumping the gun with that statement). Unless they know for certain that they can’t keep this unit together past this season, no changes please.
This could be one of those cases where you wonder why his previous team didn’t keep him. Danny Green, anyone? It’s nice to be on the receiving end of one of those trades for a change.
A little off subject here, but has anyone kept tabs on Josh Selby? How has he looked so far?
Also, a new podcast by Brian Windhorst. Someone let Tom know…lol
http://www.stationcaster.com/player_skinned.php?s=70&c=476&f=1052251
Thanks Cody! Listening now.
Windhorst talking about Kevin Love on the Cavs. Gotta love that
Cavs planning to offer Greg Oden a deal!
http://sulia.com/channel/cleveland-cavaliers/f/c092c776-78bb-4a72-a8e8-b4630aa60851/?source=twitter
No faith that Oden ever plays any actual meaningful minutes in the NBA but I don’t mind this at all. The upside to this could be huge, and it does nothing to hurt the team no matter how low the chances are that it ever pays off.
Mallory,
I agree that Speights is more valuable than a mid round pick. I mean if you are picking outside of the top eight or so, You are really just praying the players will someday be as good as Speights already is, right? I agree with keeping Speights unless a significant offer comes along.
nice look at TT’s production improvement.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BCnLwUeCUAER8jp.jpg:large
Kj
Exactly. These guys can be found. No need to lose sleep over them.
It’s cool about Oden, I guess. But I wouldn’t expect him to ever play meaningful minutes in Cleveland or anywhere at this point.
If they sign Oden, they should have Dr. Parker at the Cleveland Clinic (who found a way to finally fix Big Z’s feet) take a look at his knees.
Thanks for the link on the TT chart Tom. Really shows how radical the change has been
KJ – Speights was the 16th pick – take a look at all the other #16 picks over the years – not pretty.
Actually, strangely, the 18th pick has yielded a LOT of decent players. Weird.
Anyway, the point is for every Speights (half decent player) drafted in the middle of the draft, there are 3 or 4 massive busts. Don’t count on those picks being even close to Speights, let alone at a level of a guy like Rondo. The generally don’t get there.
This fits into my whole shtick about over-valuing the unknown vs the known – the prospect of picking is typically more valuable than the pick itself turns out to being. If the T-Wolves have traded the #2 pick in 2011 don’t you think they could’ve ended up with a better playing than Derek Williams right now? Same with the Jazz and Kantor?
Tom
Thanks for the link on Oden. I guess there isn’t much to lose by signing him. Although if he ever does take the court, I’m going to hold my breath every time he jumps…lol.
I found it interesting when Brian compared the Cavs to the Rockets of last year, as far as accumulating assets to pull in an all star. Although, I’d be a little surprised if they actually didn’t have a player targeted.
I love that we’re pursuing Oden. Honestly, there’s no downside. Especially if he agrees to a short term contract with a year or two of team options. I think a two year with a team option is good…two year with two team options would be amazing. I’m not on the “resign LeBron” bandwagon, but if we can have the flexibility to either keep a guy or release him for 2014, we’re in good shape.
His upside is phenomenal if he returns fully, and I really doubt he’s in a position to ask more than a couple million a year to sponsor his rehab. Win-win for whoever signs him. Hope it’s us.
Also, I’m a little curious what you guys thing about working some kind of deal with Orlando or Charlotte. They’re bad teams, and have pretty large contracts to deal with. Getting an unprotected draft pick and Hedo Turkoglu for Luke Walton and Boobie Gibson could be a coups on par with getting Kyrie and Davis for Mo Williams. Sure, we’d have Hedo’s awful contract for a year, but it would expire in 2014, and we’d have a solid draft pick for it. And we’ve definitely shown a willingness to spend to win.
Something like this, maybe:
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=bfwwpk4
Where we can get a top 5 protected pick for 2013 from Orlando and a top 5 protected pick from Charlotte in 2014. It’s ugly and we wouldn’t be getting better from it immediately, but the draft picks for expiring contracts could be very useful.
JoshV – Tyrus Thomas too? that doesn’t expire until the year after.
I like where you’re going – but much like what Houston did in netting James harden – the Cavs can use their assets to try to acquire a core player as well.
What’s better – getting more 1st round picks, or landing someone like Kevin Love?
Sure, if Love is acquirable, we should do everything we can to get him. But is Minnesota willing to part with him in exchange for saving some money? I doubt it. If we can bundle a bunch of stuff for him, or someone like him, I’m all for it. Just doesn’t seem likely to me.