On LeBron James’ Shot Selection

LeBron James is having one of the most efficient scoring seasons a high-volume scorer has ever enjoyed. This much is statistical fact. He has also made me lose at least a year of my life due to his shot selection, which has been widely maligned. This much is medical opinion. There are two schools of thought on LeBron’s shot selection: “LeBron takes way too many bad shots and is hurting his team by doing so,” and “LeBron’s True Shooting is 61.1%. Haters to the left.” Rather than put things in black-and-white terms, let’s take a look at LeBron’s shot selection.

Why LeBron James Has Damaged My Life Expectancy In a Number of Ways:

It’s not that LeBron James takes too many long jumpers. It’s that LeBron James takes too many obviously and predictably terrible long jumpers. Some of this is because of perception. When players like Kobe Bryant pull up for a 22-footer, it doesn’t look nearly as bad as when LeBron pulls up for a jumper. Most guys are quick and decisive with their long jumpers. They see a small opening, identify it, and pull up for the jumper. Even if they leave time on the shot clock and may have left a better shot later in the possession on the table, the shot generally looks like a good idea given the location of defenders in their immediate vicinity. Also, guys like Kobe make perfect mistakes. Even when they’re taking low-percentage shots, they’re going away from the defense like they’re supposed to be, their elbow is in, their shoulders are squared to the target, and their one-on-one fundamentals are picture-perfect.

LeBron’s mistakes aren’t like that. LeBron will sit down on his jumpers, go up off-balance, and will sometimes let his elbow flare out. What makes things even worse is how he sets up his jumper. LeBron rarely makes a quick catch-and-shoot off one dribble or a curl. Instead, he slowly sets up his deep jumpers, so that Cavs fans have time to recognize what he’s going to do and start wincing. When Kobe shoots a jumper, it’s catch, make the move, shoot, and the thought is “hey, that could well go in.” When LeBron shoots, it’s catch, set up, evaluate, and “I hope he doesn’t shoot this jumper. Don’t shoot this jumper. Oh lord, he’s going to shoot this jumper. WHY DID YOU SHOOT THAT JUMPER?” On some level, this is understandable. Because LeBron is so good at driving to the basket and making passes, he should never catch the ball looking to shoot it immediately unless he’s wide-open from beyond the arc. This means he will always take some time to evaluate his driving and passing lanes when he gets the ball instead of coming off a curl and pulling up for a smooth 18-footer. If LeBron did more of that, it would help his outside shooting game, but damage his passing and driving games, which are his bread and butter. However, this tendency makes LeBron’s long jumpers horrifyingly and miserably predictable. Here are a few of the situations where LeBron takes long jumpers that make me crazy:

1. The hold-and-shoot from the wing:

The most defensible. LeBron will catch the ball on the wing, face his man up, jab-step and look for a lane, and pull up for a jumper out of the triple-threat to keep his man honest. A necessary evil, perhaps, but annoying.

2. The stutter-dribble launch:

LeBron gets the ball at the top of the three-point line. With 6-11 seconds left on the shot clock, LeBron puts the ball on the floor and starts feinting towards the basket. As the shot clock winds down, it becomes obvious that LeBron is looking to get some space for a step-back three or a deep two. As the shot clock winds down, he launches it. Goes in a fair amount of the time, but still very frustrating to watch.

3. The heat-check:

I’ve written about this before. The point of making long jumpers is to make the defense cheat up so that you can get easier shots. All to often, LeBron will make one or two long jumpers in a row and start taking more difficult shots. When it works, it’s awesome, but it misses the point to some degree.

4. The attempted dagger:

If the Cavs are up by 2-5 points with less than two minutes remaining, LeBron is going to go for that highlight dagger. It does occasionally produce the desired highlight and has rarely cost the Cavs a game, but I’d really like to see LeBron TCB and go for the win in that situation, even if it has to be done with ugly, ugly free throws.

In Which I Defend LeBron’s Love of The Long Jumper:

For all the flak LeBron takes for his long jump shots, they’re effective. LeBron has the shooting range and ballhandling ability to get a decent look at a three whenever he wants it, which is a very valuable skill. LeBron’s eFG% on three-pointers is 52.1%, which is amazing when you consider that less than a third of LeBron’s threes are assisted. (Only Steve Nash and Dwyane Wade take a higher proportion of their threes off the dribble than LeBron.) Most NBA players aren’t able to get good looks at threes without an assist, and LeBron’s ability to do so is a major asset.

Most players can only get midrange looks off the dribble, and midrange looks are almost universally more inefficient than three-pointers. Almost no high-volume scorers are as efficient from 16-23 feet as LeBron is from three, or from the 10-15 foot range. LeBron is a league-average shooter on deep twos, which is impressive considering that almost none of his deep twos are assisted. One of the issues with threes is that they are a separate statistic on the box score; If LeBron goes 1-8 from beyond the arc, it seems obvious he settled for too many jump shots. If LeBron goes 1-9 on 20-foot jumpers, only the diehard fans searching through the shot charts know how many outside shots he settled for. While LeBron isn’t nearly as efficient taking deep jumpers as he is going to the basket, he’s turned himself into a threat from outside.

Here’s the question nobody seems to be asking. If LeBron shouldn’t be taking so many long jump shots, what should he be doing instead? Let’s look at the possible alternatives.

1. Drive to the basket more:

This would always be preferable. LeBron is the best player in the league at driving to the basket, and maybe the most unstoppable player of all time when he decides to take it to the rack. But at some point, we have to ask just how much LeBron can drive in a single game. LeBron is just about the league leader in shots made at the basket per game. He’s .1 FTA per game from the league lead in that category. He makes 75% of his shots at the basket. Some people take more shots at the rim per game than LeBron, but you have to figure that his 75% efficiency mark at the rim is due to how he chooses when to drive the ball. It’s hard to say that the player who takes the ball to the rim more than any other player in the NBA should take the ball to the rim more often. LeBron isn’t dumb. He knows that taking the ball to the rim is his best play, and he does it a lot. I don’t think he forgets that at any point during the game.

2. Post up more:

Okay, I’m a pretty big proponent of LeBron posting up more. Even so, LeBron going to the post more often isn’t a panacea. Yes, LeBron aggressively taking the ball into the post, using good footwork, and getting an easy finish makes me much happier than any gigantic dunk by LeBron. But making LeBron a post player makes it easier for the defense to prevent the ball from getting to LeBron, which isn’t what you want at all. And beyond that, making LeBron a post-up player limits the areas on the floor that he can work from. As good of a scorer as LeBron is, he’s almost as effective passing the ball. Most of his passes come from him feeding the paint from the perimeter or on a drive-and-kick — limiting LeBron’s area of operations to 15 feet and in could help his scoring game, but it would ultimately hurt the offense.

3. Utilize the in-between game:

To put it simply: LeBron doesn’t use his mid-range game more because LeBron’s mid-range game sucks.

In Which I Elaborate on why LeBron’s mid-range game sucks:

First off, LeBron’s mid-range game sucks. It does. LeBron makes 32% of his jumpers from 10-15 feet, which is well below league average and significantly well below LeBron’s percentages from every other area.

Here’s the tricky thing about LeBron’s scoring game. LeBron’s great at driving to the basket. He’s very good at making deep jump shots. That’s what his game is built around. In theory, an in-between game that uses his ability to drive to the basket to set up a jump shot would be wonderful. LeBron could look to drive to the basket, and go to the rack if the defense cut him off. If they managed to get in between him and the basket, LeBron could pull up and drain an in-between shot.

As it turns out, that hasn’t been the case. If you watch Cavs games, one counter-intuitive conclusion is obvious: LeBron is much more comfortable taking deep jumpers than he is taking shots from true mid-range. When he’s shooting from beyond the arc or a dribble or two inside of it, LeBron can rise up, use his natural shooting range, and get a good look. When he goes inside and has to pull up over a helping big, he fades way too much, loses his balance, double-clutches, and puts up an ugly shot that generally doesn’t go in.

As much as I’d like to say that LeBron’s bad footwork on pull-up jumpers is something that he needs to fix, the truth may be simpler and more horrifying. I’ve always maintained one thing about LeBron: if it can’t be taught, LeBron James is really good at it. Size, speed, strength, court vision, shooting range, creativity, off-hand finishing, the ability to move with the ball, moving off the ball, shot-block timing, I could go on.

However, there’s one skill that LeBron wasn’t born with: balance. Again, this makes sense. LeBron is very big and very fast. Very big and very fast things are not great at changing directions, or stopping on a dime. LeBron is often compared to a freight train. In case you don’t know, freight trains aren’t great at stopping.

Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant are among the best pull-up players in the league. They also aren’t very fast. Kobe’s a freak of nature who can tuck his elbow and square his shoulders from absolutely any angle on the court in any situation. Some of that is hard work, but that’s also a talent Kobe was born with that few others can ever hope to possess. Durant is methodical with the ball, and has multiple options every time he makes a move. Kobe and Durant, along with Steve Nash, an amazing midrange player, have one other thing in common: they’re not fast. Kobe once was, but he’s not anymore. Put them in a sprint, and you’d be surprised how many lesser players could beat them. What they are is quick. They can accelerate, they have great first steps, they can go either way easily, and they’re masters of changing speeds on the fly. They’re basketball fast, and it works for them.

LeBron James is not basketball fast. LeBron James is fast, and plays basketball. Before LeBron’s rookie year, nikebasketball.com put up a series of videos about LeBron that I watched approximately 3,000 times when I was 14. During one of the testimonials, LeBron said the following, as I recall: “My first step ain’t never been that great. It’s my second step, that’s where I’ll get you.”

This seems like an odd statement at first, as LeBron’s first step is feared by everyone who tries to guard him. But the more you think about it, the more you realize that LeBron was correct in his assessment of his own skills. LeBron’s not quick like Chris Paul, who has an absolutely phenomenal midrange game. Paul can change directions in the blink of an eye, move from right to left effortlessly, and stop on a dime for an easy mid-range jumper or floater from any spot on the floor. LeBron’s different. He’s quick with his first step, but it’s when he gets the shoulder past and starts going in a straight line towards the basket that he really becomes unstoppable. When LeBron makes that second step towards the basket and hits the afterburners, he is not going to get stopped or slow down. It’s bad news for the defense, but it also means LeBron doesn’t have much of a pull-up game.

LeBron’s game is what it is. Either he’s pulling up from outside, or he’s damning the torpedoes and going to the rack. It would be lovely if he had the Spider-Man reflexes to recognize when he doesn’t have a lane to the basket once he starts going and could pull up cleanly from 12 while going a million miles an hour, but that’s the one skill he doesn’t have right now. He makes his decision when he’s around the three-point line, and goes from there. That’s what suits his strengths, and it’s worked for him so far.

Maybe someday he’ll figure out how to use his driving acumen to set up his mid-range jumper, but maybe it’s impossible for a body that big going that fast to stop on a dime and be smooth from the 10-15 foot range. Until that time comes, we should probably accept LeBron’s powerful combination of drives to the basket and deep jumpers for what it is: the most efficient high-volume offensive game in the NBA.