There has been a lot of talk over the last several weeks over whether the Cavs have been the victim of biased officiating, especially when it comes to foul calls. It is worth looking at the shooting numbers to determine whether this is the case. Hoopdata helps out here. A few numbers jump out immediately.
The Cavs average 21.8 free throw attempts per game for a 25.9% free throw rate, or free throws/field goal attempts. This is tied with three teams for 17th in the league. Not a great number, but certainly not conspiracy theory level.
Breaking down the Cavs’ shooting by shot location tells a different story. Most fouls come at the rim or within 3-9 feet from the basket. If you’re going to get to the line, attacking the basket is the best way to do it (further discussion of this correlation and its relevancy is warranted, but a subject for another article).
• At the rim: Attempts, 26.3 (9th), FG% 57.7 (30th), Assist% 45.3 (30th)
• 3-9 feet: Attempts, 8.3 (21st), FG% 30.3 (30th), Assist% 45.8 (12th)
• 10-15 feet: Attempts, 6 .0 (16th), FG% 41.9 (12th), Assist% 32.6 (25th)
• 16-23 feet: Attempts, 18.4 (15th), FG% 37.2 (17th), Assist% 57.3 (23rd)
• 3 Pointers: Attempts, 21.7 (10th), FG% 35.6 (12th), Assist% 86.4 (8th)
Conclusion: The Cavs are really bad around the basket. Despite being 9th in attempts, they are last in field goal percentage. One might think that perhaps they are getting jobbed by the refs until one looks at their assist% which is dead last in the league. There is a correlation between assist percentage and field goal percentage around the rim. Most of the fact that the Cavs are so bad around the rim is not because they’re not getting foul calls, it’s because they’re not finding open guys near the basket. Furthermore, the Cavs aren’t excessively good at offensive rebounding. They’re 10th in the league with a rate of 29.4. Denver attempts 35 shots per game around the rim, has an offensive rebound rate at 32.47 (best in the league), and still shoots 66.8% at the rim (8th). Yes, there is a thought that the Cavs could be getting fouled, getting offensive rebounds, and then getting fouled again, but I think the more likely culprit is that unassisted forays to the rim are more likely to get blocked (The cavs are 4th worst in the league at getting their shot blocked, at a rate of 7.8%) and less likely to get foul calls.
3-9 feet from the basket paints a similarly rough story. The Cavs’ FG% here is abysmal, even though their assist% is respectable. A lot of blocks are probably coming from here, and the Cavs are really bad at these shots.
10-15 feet seems to be the Cavs sweet spot. They shoot a respectable 41.1% (12th) from here. They are 25th in assist% from here, so obviously this is the result of a lot of pullup jumpers.
Simply put, there’s no overwhelming evidence that the Cavs are getting any more or less calls than anyone else. They’re simply really bad at finishing and passing around the basket.
This leads to an interesting question. Just how bad are the Cavs on offense? Let’s take a look.
• 98.3 Offensive efficiency rating (28th).
• 54.8 Assisted field goal% (27th) . Of the top 10 offenses in the league, only New York has an assist rate below 57%.
• 50.3 True shooting % (28th) the correlation between TS% and efficiency is extremely high.
• 25.9 Free throw rate (17th)
• 74.2 FT% (21st). This is up from 71.6% last year (28th). And has been much better of late. Much of this is due to Tristan Thompson’s much improved free throw shooting.
• 13.88 Turnover rate (16th)
• 7.8 Blocked rate (27th)
• 29.4 Offensive rebound rate (10th)
The Cavs are a very bad shooting and passing team, which leads to them being a very bad offensive team.
• 105.9 Defensive Efficiency (28th)
• 62.2 Opponent Assisted FG% (26th)
• 55.8 Opponent TS (30th)
• 31.7 Opponent free throw rate (29th)
• 14.9 Opponent turnover rate (3rd)
• 3.7 Block rate (30th)
• 72.56 Defensive rebound rate (21st)
Yikes. The Cavs are a team that gambles a lot on defense. This leads to a very high turnover rate for the defense, but a lot of wide open looks and fouls, leading to a dreadful combination of free throws, fouls, and threes. It’s a mess.
The comment was made earlier this week that Chris Grant acquires players based on advanced statistics, but that Byron Scott does not allocate minutes based on advanced statistics. I’ve waxed and waned endlessly over the questions, “Is this by design?” “Are the Cavs trying to lose?” “Or is Byron Scott this incompetent?” The Cavs are bad enough that a minor change at certain positions like playing Omri Casspi more, or Luke Walton less, might help, but those suggestions might just be putting lipstick on a Moondog. I wrote an article earlier this year encouraging everyone to trust the process — that this painting was going to be ugly before it was beautiful. I have to keep telling myself that, because in the moment this team is tough to watch. There may only be a core of only 3-6 players that will be on the Cavs beyond this year. Unfortunately, I fear that those players are developing some very bad habits, as can be evidenced by these stats. They seem to be consistently put in a position to fail. Who bears responsibility for this? I leave it to the commentariat, but I’ll cast my blame on the head coach. As input for a future article, I’d like to know who you’d like to see coaching our favorite team. If it remains Coach Scott, please tell us why.
Doesn’t everyone bemoan our shooting too many jump shots? This seems to show the opposite. I think this chart shows that we are getting to the rim a lot. We just aren’t converting or getting foul calls.
I think this can be read is a good way. Eventually the young guys are going to get better at hitting the close shots and getting fouled.
As usual, I think this is OK and will get better. Of course CTB will read this in the most pessimistic way possible. Fire Scott!!!! Fire Grant!!!!!
Interesting read from David Thorpe on his Rookie of the Year Candidates article:
The darkhorse candidate: Dion Waiters, Cavaliers
Do you remember a former No. 4 pick from Syracuse who scored in double figures frequently as a rookie? He had 27 games with 10 or more points and six games of 20 or more points. He was very athletic and oozed potential, showing off his array of physical talents with sweet-looking jumpers or emphatic dunks in transition. But our rookie report kept focusing on something deeper: A problem with his style of play:
“(He) may look like a slasher, but he plays like a gunner. Outside of the rare transition shot, he almost never takes shots from inside 15 feet. It’s a problem to be that dependent on an outside shot at such a young age (though he’s old for a rookie, he’s still a young player), and his shot dispersal looks like it comes from someone who is immobile, which (he) is not. The fact is, he’s made more 3s than he’s attempted free throws.”
That player was Wes Johnson, a guy the Minnesota Timberwolves were once so high on and now sits on the bench in Phoenix most nights, averaging less than 3 points a game for the Suns. He’s destined for either Europe next fall or to an NBA team on a minimum contract … if he plays well in summer league.
So why am I writing about Johnson in a section about Waiters, besides their sharing the same college team and top-5 draft status? Because Waiters tends to have the same problems Johnson did. Johnson thought he was playing well, racking up all those double-figure scoring games, being selected to the Rookie-Sophomore game and ultimately earning a place on the All-Rookie second team. It was all fool’s gold, of course, as those honors go to players with good raw statistics. And as we know now, advanced metrics rule the day, as they should.
Johnson was not an effective player as a rookie, just a pretty one, and over time his game has been exposed. Let’s get one thing straight though: Waiters is far more talented than Johnson. His ability to blow by defenders and then elevate at the rim is at an elite level. And his long-range shooting is solid with the potential to be special.
Still, as I’ve mentioned in this space before, he has a problem with shot selection. He continues to launch long or contested jumpers and fadeaways when opponents are struggling to keep him from the basket. Although he is more aggressive than Johnson was in terms of going at defenders, he’s not getting to the line nearly as much as he should either. And Waiters is built to get to the line; Johnson isn’t. Waiters just has to get that kind of mindset.
Take his terrific 33-point game against Sacramento on Monday night. The Kings acted as if they were allergic to Waiters in the paint and he soared to the rim at will. Yet he still chose to shoot at least five bad shots when he had the time and the matchup to attack. It’s not his fault the Cavs lost, but if he ever learns that he is capable of some 40-point games when he attacks the basket relentlessly, the Cavs will win more games and he will launch himself into ROY consideration.
Yes, you read that right.
Waiters is clearly learning how to play in the NBA, and if he continues to develop through March, he’ll end up being one of the top-3 rookies in this class. The ROY award is based mostly on raw numbers, and Waiters could be averaging more than 18 points a game by season’s end. Keep your eyes on his free throw attempts. His ROY status will be directly proportional to that number going up.
It huts me how bad the Cavs are. B Scott has to go. I can’t figure out any sort of system we’re running on either end.
If they are going to hire a different coach, I’d like D’Antoni from the Lakers. His system with a good PG is pretty fun to watch. The Cavs with Irving and Waiters would be ideal.
Yes they are developing bad habits. The writing is on the wall With Bryon Scott for some time. Cavs now have the worst losing record in the league. What more evidence does Chris Grant need?
David Thorpe is coming around? Who will CTB depend on to rip their least favorite players now?
I would like SVG
SVG would be cool. He’s a bit abrasive, but a very good coach. D’Antoni? Please, Please no. Fools gold. I don’t think Grant would be that dumb though.
Well, this is helpful. Good thing I wasn’t believing my lying eyes! Cuz they told me that Dion and Zeller get no calls!
Byron Scott is carrying out the plan for this year- get a high draft pick. That’s what the front office intended by not signing any quality free agents in the offseason. We’ll see how Scott does next year when they’re actually trying
SVG or Brian Shaw FTW
Not really fair to hold Scott responsible for the teams current state. Give him a few more quality players, then let’s see what he does.
But if they were to hire a different coach, SVG makes sense. JVG also wouldn’t be a bad choice. Even if he’s been out a while.
Yeah but can we hold Scott accountable for playing players that are less good than players on his own bench? He is choosing to play luke walton over both Caspi and John Leuer. Both of these players have shown more skill than walton. Walton couldn’t even get minutes on bad lakers teams. Why is he getting minutes on a growing cavs team? especially when there are more talented players not playing behind him. Scott is known for wanting his teams to run, and play good defense. This team is doing neither. he is a tough nose coach who is supposed to be teaching our young guards how to play good basketball. there is no evidence of this happening at all. I’m not saying that it is all his fault, the team is definitely flawed, but anyone can see that there are 8-9 real NBA-level rotation players on this team. He isnt managing them well at all.
I’m totally on board with SVG.
I didn’t even want to bring in JVG because he probably wouldn’t do it. But he’s so freaking awesome. All hail the late 90s Knicks!
Of course, Wes Johnson had a 10.2 PER his rookie year and broke 30 points exactly zero times in his career. So there’s that.
Scuzz, you don’t need quality players to call plays during time outs. In fact, not having quality players makes it paramount to have a strategy. You also don’t have to have good players to foster growth out of more than one of your 4 youngins.
Bring in Mike Brown as defensive coordinator!
I’m only kind of kidding…kind of.
I don’t really know about the rest of the team, but Dion seems to get very little love from the refs when he attacks the basket. One of those things that will change with time I’m sure. Just needs to establish himself.
One of the points of the article, Vesus, was that teams that pound the ball then try to score with dribble drives tend to get less calls. Teams that have a higher assisted FG% tend to get more more free throw attempts. Probably because the ball is moving from side to side, causing defenses to have to react more quickly.
It would be interesting to know where the Cavs rank in shots taken at the rim by the backcourt. I’m guessing their ratio would be much higher than most teams’.
What about the eye test? I mean I’ve seen multiple obvious calls then in three minutes call someone for accidently brushing someone’s jersey.
Omri sighting! Yay.
Doesn’t the writer realize that if you don’t make the shot you don’t get the assist? The lack of assists is related to not making shots.
Ron:
you are talking about raw assist totals, whereas the author is talking about the percentage of made FGs that were assisted.
Ron’s point still stands. Bad officiating wouldn’t drop just the raw assists but also reduce the number of made assisted buckets as well. Bottom line we get no love in the paint, not even Kyrie…
Sorry,
Coach Scott has done absolutely nothing to instill confidence. We don’t really run an offense in any pressure situation. We go ISO too often, we don’t use back screens. We even every try to get Alonzo or Dion the ball while they are moving in the lane (where they are by a wide margin most effective).
I know blah blah blah, we’re young, but at some point this has to fall on the head coach and the lack of implemented scheme.
Unless we’re just tanking. If that’s true, there’s little point talking about any of this.
T:
You are focused on raw numbers, when you should be looking at rates.
If we could just hire someone with a system the players can attach themselves to. Just a little one. Maybe not phil jackson’s triangle monster of death from outer space…but a little bit more than we have…I’d really like that.