Tonight was a bad night for TV. The Bachelor is back, much to the horror of husbands nationwide – Notre Dame reinforced the nauseating SEC domination narrative, and the Cavs got blown off the court by the Bulls minus Derrick Rose. And knowing this Cavs team, if Rose had played it probably would have been a close game until the Cavs blew the last 2 to 6 minutes. The recap’s going to be a little different tonight. Feel free to love or hate the format as it probably won’t continue in this matter either way. Colin, Dani, and I were live-emailing each other during the game posting our thoughts. They are posted with whatever context is needed for the game. To give the voices an identity I’ll put D, C, T. Necessary context will be in italics.
<- 1st Quarter ->
D – The warm feelings are coming on early for me tonight. Kyrie seems to be playing more methodically, perhaps looking to repent for his turnover-fest last night. Tristan had an ugly turnover, but he also had a powerful drive to get an easy layup against Boozer, and Tyler Zeller had one HELL of a block! We’ve got a 13-9 lead, and I couldn’t be happier. Actually, I could- a win and Kyrie’s third-straight 30-point game would do it. Kyrie Irving finished the 1st quarter with a healthy 9 points and 4 assists. The Cavs led by 8 after a very solid all around effort from the starters. The 3s were falling early too (a season-long trend).
T – CJ Miles continues his strong 1st quarters. 2 of 4 from 3. Nice balanced scoring from the Cavs. Keeping with the laws of KyrieISOball the Cavs wind down the clock and despite a double team they get no open look for anyone as Kyrie forces as airball. This play was more egregious hero ball than most because the Bulls actually doubled Kyrie on the drive, not just once he got in the paint. He still didn’t look for a teammate. Fortunately, the Cavs intercepted the outlet pass off the airball and CJ Miles almost canned a 30 foot three at the 1st quarter buzzer.
C – C.J. Miles makes no sense. It’s a wonder he holds together at a molecular level. He should open a dry-cleaning joint where half the time they return your clothes brighter and cleaner than ever and the other times they just draw dinosaurs all over them with permanent markers. I think I hate him.
Colin - this is in the mail. Hope it fits.
<- 2nd Quarter ->
C – Tristan Thompson has decided, against maybe the best defensive post pairing in the league (Noah and Gibson), to grab every offensive rebound he can get his hands on and finish it with finesse. Am I happy right now? Is this what joy feels like? Thompson had a nice first half. He finished with 12 points including 100% of his free throws and as Colin alluded to, he had 7 rebounds in the first half including 4 offensive boards. Unfortunately all the Cavs success dried up quickly in the 2nd half. TT finished with a productive 14 and 8 in 32 minutes on 50% shooting.
D – Tristan with another fantastic move! Get that Wild Thing bum outta here! [Edited due to logical fallacy]
T – Bulls are methodically scoring now. Cavs need to get some stops to keep this one from slipping away. Chicago took it to the Cavs early in the 2nd against the Cleveland 2nd unit before the Cavs seemed to stop the bleeding on offense. But they never really stopped the Bulls from scoring, especially inside. The Bulls picked the Cavs apart with passing and when the Cavs collapsed the Bulls always swung it to an open 3 point shooter. They finished the game 10-14 (!) from 3 and 5 of those came in the 2nd quarter onslaught. Tristan Thompson scored 8 of the Cavs 20 second quarter points and the Wine and Gold went into the half down only 3.
<- 3rd Quarter ->
The 3rd quarter started out a back and forth affair between the research triangle (Boozer 6, Irving 3, Zeller 2). At 7:05 left in the 3rd, Nomadic Nate Robinson came in and began an aggravating night. He dished out 2 dimes keeping the Bulls assist-train rolling. (They finished the night with 34 assists on 44 baskets!) The only lifeline was some inspired play by Dion Waiters – he scored 8 straight points to try and stem the Bulls offensive exploitation of Cleveland’s interior D.
T – Really a terrible possession by Kyrie there. Irving received a screen from Thompson at the top of the key in which Tristan switched sides at the last second. It was a very effective screen and it gave Kyrie a healthy amount of free space. He could have easily pulled up from 15 (he was wide open) but choose to keep pounding it until the help came. Normally this wouldn’t be so bad but there was only a few seconds left on the clock when TT set the screen. Kyrie’s clock awareness was not there and he picked up his dribble with no one open to pass to as his pass attempt was tipped out of bounds by Chicago with the clock about to expire. Rather incredibly, with 0 seconds showing on the shot clock, the Cavs inbounded the ball to a leaping Zeller who tipped it in off the glass to save the possession.
D – Tom, you’ve been hating on Kyrie a lot recently. I agree he goes to isolation too quickly and too frequently, but when C.J. Miles and Tristan aren’t moving, and his other options are a Dion Waiters brick or a Tyler Zeller turnover….This is a great point, and turnovers have plagued the Cavs. More analysis on this comment in the closing remarks.
D – If Dion wasn’t heating up right now the game would be a lost cause. I hate Carlos Boozer.
Why would we be 'over it'?
C – Waiters really is improving at the rim, which will hopefully encourage him to rely on drives as his primary weapon on offense. Waiters was 6/6 from the line and was attacking often.
T – Yeah he has looked more comfortable finishing which is much needed.
C - It’s strange to watch the Bulls without Derrick Rose because they’re a slightly less effective team that’s in some ways more fun to watch. Their bigs move the ball really well and it gets them easy buckets near the rim. (Get well soon, D-Rose; I love to watch you play, etc., of course.) Watching the difference between the Bulls and the Cavs offensive sets is jarring. The Bulls waste no energy, make crisp, effective passes, and swing the ball from side to side. It goes without saying they have more talent and experience as the Cavs as well.
D – OMRI CASSPI SIGHTING. DION WAITERS AIRBALL. WOOHOO. Casspi checked in with 3:05 left in the 3rd.
C – “Obligatory Dion Waiters Airball” is a troubling meme.
T – I call it “another Dion Waiters Airball” – Obligatory implies a quota of 1.
D – Despite the huge deficit, Byron Scott will leave Kyrie out of the game until there’s 6:00 left in the fourth and we’re too far back to win anyways. Horrific third quarter; stagnant offense, stagnant defense. Sixteen points down. Gentlemen, take your bets: what’s your call for the final score? Cavs 101 Bulls 98 At the end of 3 the Cavs trailed 88 – 72, meaning Dani needed a 19 point 4th Quarter differential for his prediction to hold true, harking back to the Mike Brown Era.
C – Cavs: Silent Eternity, Bulls: Quiet Decimation, Colin: Beer
<- 4th Quarter ->
C – What is this lineup, by the way? Kevin Jones, C.J. Miles, Omri Casspi, Shaun Livingston, and Tyler Zeller? Who scores? (Rhetorical question, obvs. No one does.)
T – I like this lineup. Plus FREECASSPI!
C – Tom’s going to every Cavs game this year to sit in the upper deck and yell, “WHY WON’T YOU PLAY ONE OF THE CHOSEN PEOPLE?” at Byron Scott the whole time. On Cue, Omri had a nice pumpfake, 1 dribble, that led to a sweet mid-range J. He followed it up with a strong drive and a pretty feed to a cutting Shaun Livingston, cutting a once hopeless 22 point deficit to 16 before the Bulls called timeout.
D – If Omri Casspi gets us back in this game I’ll move to Israel.
T – I love this lineup. DISCERNIBLE OFFENSIVE SETS. Players receiving and passing out of the paint. Casspi pump faking people into shots, dribble drive n kicks, and no one dribbling repeatedly. I took this opportunity to reflect on what an actual offense with passing and cutting looks like – this brief few minutes was it. Unfortunately, running what looks aesthetically like a real offense is mutually exclusive with getting stops. And the Bulls quickly destroyed all hope out of the timeout.
T – Good ol Nate Robinson and his Sam Cassel Cheshire Cat Smile.
D – There might be nothing more depressing than watching Nate Robinson shoot your team out of a game. Nomadic Nate came out of the Bulls timeout and promptly drained 2 threes right in Dion’s eye all while taunting him. Robinson and Marco Belinelli had eerily similar (and dominant) stat lines tonight. Both were 5-8 from the field including 3-4 from distance, and both were +24 in 24 minutes. Bulls bench >>> Cavs bench.
T – Wait does the ref not realize that the unnatural leg kick is just part of Dion’s shot?! Dion looks to get an AND-1 on a 3 and although my sound was muted at that point, he was called for an offensive foul. Maybe it was for a previous push off that I didn’t see. If it was because he kicked his leg out, then this applies.
D – When Lebron or Kevin Durant beats you, at least it doesn’t seem shocking and demeaning all the way through- you know it’s coming. When Nate Robinson wins games, it’s like a baby beating the hell out of you with a toothpick.
And that about wrapped it up. The Bulls (this is not a typo) went 12-14 in the 4th quarter, and the 12 included 3 And-1s (in other words, fouling didn’t stop them), 3 triples, and 2 other long 2s. Total domination against Casspi, Leuer, and company.
T – Anyone think B Scott put Casspi and Leuer out there tonight to fail just to give CtB the finger? I do. I don’t.
And that concludes this live-email recap. I have one concluding remark. The Cavaliers do not trust their offense. Quite often, they will run a set, an entry pass will get tipped or a role player will fumble the ball away. And that’s that. They go away from it and revert to isolation hero-ball (for lack of a more creative term). They need to trust the system and make the necessary adjustments. There is nothing gained by giving up on trying to execute more complex plays and sticking to isolation and a two-man game on a team that is lottery bound.
Nate and Dani offered their post-game thoughts as well.
Dani:
-Fantastic first quarter from Kyrie. He came out firing and passing, and it was beautiful. Unfortunately, it was downhill from there. Ugly final three quarters from Kyrie. I’d be more disappointed with him, but the Bulls defense will do that to you- they have a tendency to turn every NBA offense into an iso-happy-mid-range-miss-fest
-Dion really turned it on in the third to keep us in the game when the Bulls started scoring, but he didn’t do much else. The ugly step-back jumpers continue, and they continue to suck. When he drove to the basket, good things tended to happen. Nice passing, though- he had a few inside feeds that took your breath away.
-Zeller was terrible. He kept on throwing the ball right to Luol Deng. Who knows why. Maybe he owed him several favors?
-Tristan was the beast we’ve grown accustomed to over the last few weeks. In the first half. After that, the Bulls interior D clamped down, and he responded meekly.
-Everyone else, well….whatever. Alonzo was a mixed bag as usual, although his defense was pretty awful tonight. Kevin Jones looked solid, although he continues to be very small for an NBA power forward. Omri Casspi sighting! He played well in garbage time. Maybe Byron will let him play next game? Over Luke Walton? That’d be nice. Coach Scott’s rotations continue to be unfathomable.
Unfathomable.
Nate:
-So there’s nothing like jumping up 10 points on a team in the 1st and still losing by 26.
-Nate Robinson: +24 in 24 minutes — or, there’s a reason Shaun Livingston was on the waiver wire.
- Cavs need a guy not afraid to put an elbow in Boozer’s grill. Preferably he’d have the last name Gund.
- Tyler Zeller is softer than the Stay Puff (sic) Marshmallow man.
-Will Cleveland lose by more or less than the Irish? I’m betting less. (Good bet. The Cavs lost by 26, the Irish by 28. What an AWFUL night for TV)
-Do the Cavs have to pay individual postage for mailing this game in, or can they just mail in the entire season in bulk?
-Tristan’s developing post game: a nice development, but the Bulls have already snuffed him out. He needs a counter off the hook shot — even if he is ambidextrous.
-Who’s the next Tom Thibodeau (sic – as in he might be feeling sick right now), and how do we find him?
-So the Starting Five for the all time Cavs hate team has to be Rasheed, Boozer, LeBron, DeShawn Stevenson, and Jordan, right? Throwing this one right to the commentariat. Who’s the Cavs all-time hate team?
It's "Puft".
My all time hate team:
LeBron, Sheed, Rafer Alston, Hedo Turkgoglu, Rashard Lewis.
This game haunts me. http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200905260ORL.html Look at that box score. Dwight Howard 7-9 from the foul line. Rafer alston 6 threes. Pietrus 5 threes. Unreal.
Lebron, Stevenson, Pietrus, Jordan, Lebron…Boozer doens’t matter enough to mention. Stevenson sucks…but he is annoying enough to matter. Boozer left before it hurt that bad. Lebron left and kicked us all in the balls. He takes boozer’s spot and his own. This game really showed up B Scott’s weaknesses. In allllllll kinds of ways.
Horrible ending to a great start… Even when the Cavs show their potential, they aren’t keeping it up for the full game.
All time hate team: Boozer, LeBron, Rick Mahorn (still furious over his cheap shot to Price), Rashard Lewis (caught on steroids during the 2009 playoffs but not found out until a year too late)… I’ll put Dwyane Wade in the last spot, but no one else really rises to the level of the first four.
I watched the first half then went to work….I saw the way better half. Hawks game Wednesday. If you see a sloppy guy with unkempt hair who hasn’t shaved in a week vomiting up Christmas Ale and Dortmunder in the third row it’s me (can you be more specific))!
Agh Make it go away. We shouldn’t be this bad.
Tom,
Regarding the Leuer / Casspi middle finger joke, I think you had a player development post in the works that probably details something along the lines of this comment.
Casspi’s career season is still as a 21-year old in Sacramento; Leuer sported above average PER and adjusted plus-minus last year. Both have not exhibited growth while in Cleveland. Kyrie’s PER and assist rate are down from his rookie season; Dion’s shooting dropped calamitously from October / November to December from 38 / 36 / 77 to 34 / 21 / 63.
Obviously, Tristan is taking nice steps forward, and Gee has been a solid reclamation project (but ten other D-Leaguers have been in-and-out the door without success). Of course, on the other hand, JJ Hickson starts and has a 20 PER on a 19 – 15 team while Danny Green leads a 27 – 10 team in made three pointers (I still don’t disagree with the Hickson trade; of course to some extent, it is because I don’t think he would have developed this way in Cleveland).
The Cavs have four high-stakes young players now. I like all four, but questions of how this team is developing young talent are legitimate. David Thorpe did a podcast on this topic last season (not specifically about the Cavs), discussing how player talent and attitude are essential, but strength & conditioning, nutritional assistance, emotional support, and obviously strong coaching in the finer points of playing basketball are vital to helping young players reach their potential.
Currently, it appears that the Cavs offense is not putting these players in a position to best utilize their skills. I can’t say anything meaningful about strength, conditioning, nutritional assistance, etc. As expected from 20 year olds, most still have bad habits that need broken. The Cavs are approaching a threshold point where the young talent and upcoming draft picks either blossom into something special, or teeter as a frustrating, flawed squad. The talent is coming together, the franchise needs to show a little bit more as far as developing it.
In that vein, Kevin, I think the effects of veterans like Parker and Jamison cannot be underestimated. The Cavs lack of assertive veterans has hurt the development this year. That being said, I’m about ready to petition the US Postal Service for a commemorative Byron Scott postage stamp in honor of this season.
The worst thing about this game for me was Tyler Zeller. This was perhaps his worst game as a pro. I can almost forgive a guy for having short arms, a slim frame, and an inconsistent J. What I CANNOT forgive is his troubling habit of ball watching when he should be doing SOMETHING. This applies to defensive rebounding, where he frequently just watches the flight of the ball instead of boxing out, and in his defensive rotations, big to big, where here seems totally confused if the big whom he isn’t guarding has the ball. This is a guy who played 4 years at a great program. I am more than concerned with his non execution of basic basketball plays. I really was high on you TZ! Come on, buddy!
Tristan has really played well in this stretch on both sides of the ball. He still turned an easy layup into a blocked dunk attempt by taking 2 minutes to gather, but then, he is still the same human being after all.
Somehow Dion is regressing in his decision making. He is taking far too many dribbles before doing anything. I almost feel as though Byron’s insistence on castrating the poor boy hasn’t made him any less likely to start the offense, it has just taken away his confidence to get and go. He is the anti-Jamison right now. The reason Jamison has been able to score, (regardless of his horrific efficiency) is that he grabs the pass and immediately goes into motion. I don’t think Dion needs to be quite as fast, but allowing a team like the Bulls to zone up behind 8 dribbles is not the way to be “patient.”
If we trade Andy, I will have a hard time watching this team. It is already far more difficult for Kyrie to do point guard things without someone to play off of. There is too much great basketball to watch to waste my life watching Alonzo Gee without the balance of the Andy/Kyrie pick and roll. Ugh…
Don’t pile on Tyler too hard Ben. This is why mid first round picks don’t normally start, or even usually get a ton of playing time. Like it or not this year is basically extended preseason. Young guys getting their toes wet, learning what they need to improve on for next year. Tyler looks in over his head now for sure, but he’s getting experience that most teams wouldn’t allow him because Scott doesn’t have to worry about securing his job with meaningless wins while sacrificing player development.
Brian,
At some point, player development = wins. Not 40 this year, but the second half of the season needs to see a lot less 26 point losses, long losing streaks, losing at home to bad teams with injured starters on the second night of their back-to-back while the Cavs are rested, etc. If those things don’t start happening, people need to stop playing the “meaningless wins and player development” card. The entirety of this season should not include a blank check of support for the coaching / team.
Check it, Thompson had a good game, Dion had a good game, Kyrie not so much but he’s not a worry for us anyways.
Look guys, the young players are playing better. This is what the season is about. Wins do not matter here. At all.
Quit treating every game as a must win game. There are no must win games for this team. The key is improvement and we are seeing it.
We played a veteran playoff team that plays incredible defense, gives incredible effort every night, has a brilliant coach, and has one of the deepest, most physical front lines on the road. And our third big men was Kevin Jones – a guy who was in the D-league last week!!?!?!? We got annihilated by a team that should of annihilated us. If anything, the fact that we played them close for 2.5 quarters using only 8 players was a minor miracle (only 3 of which were big men, 2 of which were rookies who were forced into rotation spots well beyond their current skillset).
I don’t understand all of the exaggerated negativity here. Last year a lot of people here were complaining about how we were winning too much, and how we needed to keep losing for at least two more years. This year we kick out all of the vets, give run to the young guys, and lose consistently, yet people still complain. It seems like there is always more of a focus on what we are not doing that what we are doing.
Kyrie, Dion and TT are all well on their way. Zeller is solid when he is put in the correct role. And we have a huge asset in Varejao, plus tons of draft picks. This is our team. It is in development.
Go Cavs!
Kevin, the Cavs signed up for this when they didn’t bring in any free agents. Unless the rooks all have Kyrie Irving superstar potential, this team is not going to win much at all this year. Can you point to any other team that was this young with no veteran leadership and had success? We are starting 4 first and second year players and a D-league break through in Alonzo Gee. Hopefully over the course of this season and next, with a trade, or signing, and another draft pick, it will start taking shape. And it needs to next season or Kyrie will probably lose interest. You don’t have to play the meaningless win and player card if you don’t want to, but you’re going to go out of your mind with unrealistic expectations. This group has been in a lot of games and been fun to watch at times, it’s not hard to see a brighter future, it’s just not here today.
CrimsonJoe!!! From the ARCHIVES!
Yes, my Dad STILL talks about that elbow Mahorn gave Price. My Dad said for a moment he thought he actually killed him. I was a little too young to remember stuff like that. Mostly just wins and losses and 3s and dunks. I know some college ballers that are now middle-aged men that say those Bad Boy Pistons teams almost ruined the NBA.
Upon further review – my all-time Cavalier hate team is: LeBron, Kobe, Jordan, Free Agents, and the 09 Magic team.
Cols714,
I agree that “young player development is this year’s key”, but don’t agree that “wins don’t matter”. As the season moves on, you realize these two ideas aren’t mutually exclusive, right? If the young players are improving, wins will come. This doesn’t have to completely wait until next season; accepting that idea is troublesome to me. I am not treating every game as must-win, but blow-outs, losses at home to crappy teams, and long losing streaks should not be routinely shrugged-off in 2013. Winning 40% of games in January – April should be considered as a necessary proof that the young guys are improving. In the second half of the season “young player improvement = wins” seems like an elementary equation.
Also, as briefly noted below, of the Cavs under-25 crowd, Tristan is the only player that has shown year to year improvement (or month to month in Dion’s case). In the second half of the season, I want to see Dion’s efficiency improve by some amount, and Tyler’s defense, and the young guys start to generally look like a more cohesive offensive and defensive unit. So in that regard, I completely agree with you that young player development is the most important thing this season. You know what though? If all those things happen, the team will win some games.
Brian,
If the rooks all have Kyrie Irving superstar potential, then they win games. That’s not what I am arguing. Young players rarely have that immediate impact.
I am not asking for success, but merely:
- Avoid Blow-outs
- No long losing streaks
- Beat bad teams at home
It seems obvious to me that expecting these things over the second half of this season is reasonable. Maybe I’m crazy.
Brian – good argument. Here’s the counter.
The Rockets (who beat the Cavs AT the Q last week) are younger than the Cavs. They have only 2 players with over 500 minutes that have a PER over 15. Their “veterans” are Carlos Delfino and Daequan Cook and a guy that crapped his pants all over the NBA finals last year – James, the beard Harden. 3 year NBA “veteran”. 20 and 14 in a stacked conference and the only division with 3 20 win teams. And almost none of those guys have played together before this season.
Hot Sauce,
I was an anti-tanking advocate last season, and I think Mallory was also. Colin probably shaded towards accepting losing. Nate and Tom didn’t write for the blog during last season. Was Cavs: the Blog excessively opining on the Cavs winning too much last year?
Brian,
Here’s another counter; can you find a comparable situation to Cleveland’s that resulted in near-term contending?
The only real parallel that comes to mind for me is the 2008 – 2009 Thunder. That season, in Durant’s 2nd year, they finished their final 50 games with 20 wins. Overwhelmingly, their three leaders in minutes were Durant, Jeff Green and Westbrook in their 2nd, 2nd and 1st seasons. Those three played 43% of the team’s minutes and players 25-and-under took 63% of the playing time. Per minute, their weighted average age was 24.5, slightly younger than Cleveland.
Again, I think “young player improvement = second half wins”. If not, the team is treading into uncharted waters as far as building a contender.
Fair enough on the Rockets. I’m not familiar enough with their roster to make an argument, though I will say Harden is further along than Kyrie as a player and a leader as he’s played more seasons and brings championship experience with him. But I just don’t agree with player development=more wins this season. It doesn’t happen overnight. People were blasting TT last season and weeks ago, but if you watched him closely, even in the bad games, you could see things slowly starting to click. Seeing that transition is exciting to me. Zeller is not going to put on the necessary weight during the course of the season, but he will get a glimpse of what it’s like banging with NBA bigs, get used to the speed of the game over time, and learn how to play off of Kyrie, etc etc. I just enjoy watching this team built from scratch, and am hopeful that it’s going to form a strong bond with these guys over time. At least for me this beats the “throwing random guys in a line-up with Lebron, give them 3 months together and hope they can pull off an amazing play-off run years”.
Tom – the counter to your counter:
It was a 4 point game with just under two minutes left, their superstar (Harden) took over, the Cavs superstar came up a little short. The game could have gone either way.
The point I’m trying to make is that if the Cavs are playing close games now with all the first and second year players, what will it be like when they get more experience? Or when they do go after some higher level free agents? I agree with Brian. There is reason to see a bright future.
Kevin, A quick review of the Archive produced this post from the end of last February: http://www.cavstheblog.com/?p=8401
Colin wrote it and it argues for losing: “But it’s an unnatural feeling, to be down ten with six minutes to play and half-hope one’s team doesn’t bridge the deficit. We’re supposed to use comebacks as an opportunity to bond with like-minded strangers, after all, and wins are the lifeblood of the fan beaten down by sub-par performances and losing streaks. But part of being human is the ability to let logic drive the bus once in awhile. Losing this season gives the Cavaliers the best chance of winning in the future. It’s a percentage play more than anything. Losing leads to better lottery odds; better lottery odds might lead to a better draft pick; a better draft pick might lead to a better player; and a better player wins basketball games.”
Tom is in the comment section also arguing for losing. Kevin, you are in the comment section arguing against all-out tanking (because there is no empirical evidence that it leads to long-run success), but for trading veterans and letting young guys play, even if it means losing. Mallory is arguing AGAINST losing.
My takeaway from all of this: there was definitely some diversity of opinion, but we can agree that CTB was running lead posts last year that argued losing was a good thing, and that, additionally, more than a few folks supported the argument (you and Mallory being the exceptions). This year we get 1,000 word posts that are very very negative and lament how embarrassing it is to lose. You have to admit, there is at least a bit of inconsistency there. A lot of it is in the tone. The tone this year makes it sound like the world is ending, yet just last year people were presenting logical, non-emotional arguments about how playing young talent and losing was the best thing the team could do.
Scuzz,
I don’t think anyone is disagreeing that “there is reason to see a bright future”; there is reason to maintain some level of wariness also. This is a team that can go alot of directions. Personally, as an indication of the bright future, I would like to see 25 wins.
And to be clear. My point is not to troll your arguments. I appreciate the effort that goes into the blog. My point is to push back on the “world is ending” vibe that permeates a lot of the posts this year. Our team is in very good position. We just need to be patient to see how it shakes out.
I think it’s fair to expect team development similar to what the Thunder went through. That means we win around 23 games this year, and we absolutely contend for the playoffs next season.
If we make the playoffs next year (despite the likely sweep in the first round) we will be right on track. Re-sign Lebron after next season and we’re back on top.
Kevin,
Point taken. They could very well take another step next season; start winning more and make a low-seeded playoff push. But there’s no guarantee of that. They could regress.
I think my indication of a bright future is all the close games they have played with this roster. How many Cavs games have been decided in the last few minutes, like the Houston game? I’d have to take a good look later, but I’m willing to bet it’s over 12.
I know you mentioned that you wanted to avoid long losing streaks (which is a very reasonable goal), but if all those losses are like the Houston game (or Brooklyn, Atlanta, Sac, Knicks, or Miami), how discouraged are you?
Hot Sauce
Exactly. The vibe of this blog is that of a team with no future. Which is exactly the opposite of the feeling I get when I watch this team play.
Scuzz,
First, I don’t think the team can regress. They 100% certainly will be better next season than they are right now (18-win pace). My concerns are rooted in the idea that for Cleveland, there is a fine line in maximizing every resource available that will eventually separate the possibility of contending from also-ran status. At this point in the rebuild that fine-line may manifest itself as the difference between 19 and 25 wins. Eventually it could be the difference between 34 and 42 wins, and hopefully someday the difference between 50 wins and a second-round playoff exit or 58 wins and contention. The “young player development” that we long for, should start generating incrementally more wins, pretty much starting now.
I agree there have been several encouraging, close losses this season. But as part of the “young player improvement”, a few more of those should start becoming exhilarating, fist-pumping wins instead. If not, then yeah, I will be discouraged.
Kevin
No, the players improving does not have to lead to wins at all this year. Even when Kyrie and Dion and Tristan are performing well the bench is still pretty lousy. Lousy enough to lose games.
The key is the development, not wins. Wins do not matter at all this year.
There is no such thing as a “winning culture”. If there was then what was the magic that made the Cavs have a “winning culture” in the early 1990s, then lose that culture until LeBron arrives, then regaining it when LeBron is here and then losing it when he left?
It’s called getting talented players. Not some mythical “winning culture” BS.
Cols714,
I never said anything about a “winning culture”? I just said that players developing properly should lead to wins, approximately 25 this season. I stand by that.
Cols, who exactly is developing outside of TT? TT has been awesome and getting better, no doubt. He’s the only player besides andy on the upswing. Kyrie is awesome, but is in no way improved from last year outside of minutes per game. Dion is much worse now than the beginning of the year, even including last night, his first decent game in over a month. Gee has plateued, Omri came here to die, CJ miles has improved back to normal levels from the worst funk of his entire career that happened to coincide with him coming to play for scott, we don’t run any semblance of an offense, and we don’t play good defense. We’re built as a transition team who gets scored on the most in the league in transition defense and is in the bottom 5 of transition offense.
Yes, wins aren’t important this year, but instilling a sense of professionalism, urgency, and attention to detail and effort in our young 20s core is crucial, and scott isn’t doing any of those things. I could coach the cavs to 8 wins so far, but I could instill a lot more positive culture and bench guys for making stupid mistakes and it would be a lot better than what scott is doing. If putting out the worst rotation you can think of isn’t enough to lose the game, then it would probably just be better to win the game than teach guys at the beginning of their NBA career to just go play selfish, No D, No team concepts, no plays, streetball on the big stage.
Kevin,
To go back for a second, I will concede on the “meaningless win” part of my original statement. I don’t think wins are meaningless, I just used a lazy cliche phrase. But I do stand by it being a good thing that Scott does not have to overly concerned about their win loss record at this point in time.
We’re in complete disagreement about how quickly development starts to convert in to wins. And hopefullt all this losing is not all for nothing. Hopefully management is doing its job and teaching these guys some hard lessons and not letting it boil over with frustration. Actually this might be the best case to make for not trading Andy. You can see on the court that these guys have a lot of respect for his work ethic, and it might be a bumpier road then we expected without that energy keeping them motivated through rough stretches.
By no means do I think its a guaranteed slam dunk for the Cavs and that we just blindly follow management without questioning it. A lot of variables can mess this up (Look at teams like Portland and Minnesota for how hard this is, and how it took a really lucky turn for the Bulls to get all the way out of the muck.) But realistic expectations need to be set, and so far I’m on board with what they’ve put together in two short years.
Brian,
Just to be clear on our “complete disagreement about how quickly development starts to convert to wins”; are you ok with 18 wins this season?
Hot Sauce – my argument for losing wasn’t very strong. Here is it as written: “I love the attitude, I love the hard work. But at the end of the day, if a few more of these game winners rolled out, it would probably be better for the future of the franchise. The Cavs biggest priorities, however, should be to develop their own talent.”
I’m glad my position hasn’t changed in 3 years. Developing their own talent is the key to the rebuild. I wouldn’t say I was pining for tanking. (I know I wasn’t because I was pissed at the Sessions trade)
I do love that Kevin, Me, Mallory, and Nate are all arguing back then -and now we all write for the blog, continue to argue with each other, and there is this narrative that the blog has a group-think “tone”. Also – it’s really fun to see the attitudes back then.
Also @ Hot Sauce – this is a 2400 word post. 1,000 word posts are for the weak, not for me and CERTAINLY not for Nate.
And I’m not sure why you think you are making some sort of obvious point with comparing the tone to last year with now. It’s a year later. in 15 years if the Cavs are still a bottom 5 team will you be upset because “geez guys the last 14 years you’ve been ok with the fact that the team is young and in flux?” At some point it’s time to win. Kevin think that time is now. I don’t care about W and L. I would argue the exact same thing I argued last year. If a few game winners roll out, that’s probably better in the long run. Think about what that is arguing for. Not for LOSING with a capital L but for not getting lucky Wins that hurt the draft pick and really don’t reflect anything other than luck. That’s hardly wanting to tank. My argument remains – developing your own talent is the key to this team and this rebuild. Any tone you are getting from me is because I don’t see that happening. It’s also why I’ve had to change my shorts like 400times mid post the last month when talking about Tristan Thompson – you know – the LONE example of players discernibly improving. And what happens? people are out for blood because when Tristan looked awful and like he was regressing – some of us expressed concern.
The tone is going to follow what we observe. It’s fine that you are observing different things and thus it’s leading to you being overall more positive or whatever it is you think. No one is being a “grumposaur” just because.
Kevin,
Not really but that’s hard to say. If we’re assuming a fully healthy roster, which is a pretty unlikely assumption, then 18 wins wouldn’t be pretty. But I wouldn’t rule it out. If by the end of that 18 win season, Dion was completely on the outs with Byron Scott, or Kyrie’s body language was getting really negative, Tristan’s trajectory plateaus, etc, then I would be pretty worried. If they only won 18, but were regularly competitive and in mostly close games I think I’ll still have a cautiously optimistic attitude. I am expecting and hopeful that the second half of the season we will win the types of games that we should be winning but I honestly don’t try to hang a number on them.
Tom Pestak,
When you note that I say now is the time to win, I will reiterate…25 wins…not exactly asking for night-in, night-out dominance. And really that hope for wins is completely tied to my hopes for player development. Game winners going in-and-out eventually balance out, but the general idea is that improving players will net W’s.
@Scuzz – I think in a vacuum – or maybe box score watching, you are right in saying the games are kinda close, no cause for alarm. I guess even if you look at margin of victory and notice that only Washington and Charlotte are worse you could still talk yourself into positive thoughts because -5.9 ppg isn’t like -9 or something REALLY bad.
But if you watch the WAY the Cavs hang around games and the WAY they lose games – it is frustrating. The things they do well are not methodical or part of some gameplan or identity. They are pseudorandom isolation outbursts from hot-handed CJ Miles or Kyrie Irving. Or, a messy up and down “old Golden State” style of play that is fun for a quarter or two when guys are hitting transition 3 pointers and getting riled up. But watch them out of timeouts. Watch them in crucial possessions. Watch them try to run an offense when they really need a bucket. If you REALLY want to pause – watch them try to get an absolutely MUST-HAVE stop. Notice that they are an average team in 1st halfs and a PUTRID team in 2nd halfs? Why is this? They are young they should be wearing teams out as the game goes on. Why are they losing 4th quarters by double digits regularly?
This is NOT how the Cavs played last season. They lost games because of a lack of athleticism and lack of players that could create offense when Kyrie went down and Sessions was traded. When Anthony Parker is trying to set up the offense it’s obviously going to struggle to create good looks. Last year they WON a lot of 4th quarters with some heroic and inspired play from Kyrie Irving and ALSO scrubs. This year they are methodically picked apart in 4th quarters. It is systematic.
I said this last year and I still maintain that Antawn Jamison was a HUGE part of the team’s actual W/L record and losing him would hurt the bottom line. People laughed. And now it is sort of settling in that “maybe it DOES help to have super inefficient no defense guys that can actually create shots at 40% whether or not their defender is Steve Kerr or Bill Russell. The Cavs certainly miss Jamison, Parker, and mostly (former backup point guard of the future) Ramon Sessions. But if you look at this strictly from a “why is your tone negative because of a Loss” then we must not be doing a good enough job of writing. Because I was not at all thrilled with the Cavs blowing a 20 point lead to the Bobcats before hero-ball lived to die another day. It is reflected in my post. I was super excited about Thomson’s development -and continuing my season-long frustration with the way the team executes (it doesn’t).
How were you not discouraged with the Sacto loss? Cavs had 3 days rest – Sacto was 4th game in 5 nights and had been 1 and 11 on the road AND they were missing 2 of their top 3 scorers. And the Cavs lost. How is THAT not discouraging?
Kevin – yeah I know. you are saying “player development” and your evidence will be in wins. I am also saying “player development” but I know if I say ‘reflected in wins’ people will throw a fit about how this team isn’t supposed to win. I agree with you that if they do the things I am looking for – wins will follow. But my expectations are so low and “patient” when it comes to record. The flip side is – I am not at all satisfied with 25 wins if it came on the back of playing the Wizards 3rd team and winning by 1 in OT because Kyrie Irving hit a iso 3. I’d like to see them put a full 48 minutes of offensive execution together and outplay their opponents AS A TEAM. I’ve seen that twice this year. The Clippers game (which seems OH so long ago) and the Hawks game – aka Dion’s “Rondo Assist” to Alonzo Gee.
Cols – Why don’t you jot down some notes during the next game. Just write your own recap in the comments. That way we can all see what it is you are watching and analyzing and we can all be much happier. The more data points the better.
Brian,
Are you a student or a working person? If working, I assume your job has defined expectations and performance measures that you are expected to meet. How should we define the performance goals that determine whether the Cavs are meeting expectations…would it be based on the SG’s relationship with the coach or the PG’s body language? In a business that is very number driven (every outcome is defined by winner that produced a higher number than the loser), it seems we could come up with better performance indicators to gauge whether the team is on target. If the team isn’t meeting their performance targets, accountability needs dissected. This could be a good article topic.
I harp on win / loss percentage, but in addition, Cleveland has the third-worst differential in the league. Based on their differential however, their expected win-loss record is 11 – 25. That equates to 25-win pace, so maybe luck regressing to the mean will start winning the games that I am using to define my “performance measurement”. Maybe a more appropriate “performance measurement” is seeing their differential decrease every month. This would help take some luck element out of the assessment and give credit for close losses. Through 36 games, the team is being outscored by 6.4 points per 100 possessions. Maybe we should watch to see if that decreases in January – April.
If we operate under an assumption that player development comes exclusive of wins, perhaps the target should be to expect Tristan, Dion and Tyler’s PER to increase month by month.
Perhaps calculating a “projected wins” trendline based on each player’s minutes to date this year and their prior seasons “win shares per 48 minutes” could be calculated (with estimations for the rookies). If the team’s actual wins exceed the “projected wins”, then they are exceeding the sum of their parts and playing well. If they are trending below the “projected wins” line, then they are floundering and should be held accountable. This would help account for injuries, as substituting lesser performers for accomplished players would lower the “projected wins” line.
Any thoughts on this? Let’s think like managers and set quantifiable performance expectations.
I don’t mind acknowledging the fact that this is a young team, and they are going to lose. A lot. I don’t mind that we can get the young guys valuable minutes at the expense of wins, which will help them grow. I don’t mind that Grant is holding his free-agent gun powder for when the Cavs are closer to being competitve, and I don’t mind scarificing one more season to get a better draft pick.
But it feels like it’s all getting piled on a bit thick here. It’s folly to think that just because a player gets 2-3 years under their belt, they will automatically become better players; that they will automatically figure out how to win. There is a signifiant risk that 2-3 years of getting your ass beat- even though you get good playing experience- will only teach young, impressionable minds that they are losers, and they can expect to always be losers. A team like this still needs someone- ANYONE- that has history as a winner AND still has decent talent to look up to as a mentor. This team has only two players on the entire roster with > 5 years experience, and neither of them fit that bill (Varejao- talent no winning; Walton- winning no talent). I think Grant played it a little too close to the vest in free agency last year; we really needed somebody to fill that mentor role, even if we had to pay more than he’s worth, and win a few too many games to get another top-5 pick.
Being in an analytical/forecasting job, one of the hardest things to explain to senior management is the effect of compounding- of layered risk. Individually, each one of the items I addressed in the first paragraph make sense for a team at this stage of development. But when you layer them all together….I’m becoming very concerened that we’re creating a losing mentality that these young players- however talented- won’t be able to grow out of. They’ll either underwhelm in their development, or leave for greener pastures at the first opportunity.
Keeping my fingers crossed….
OK guys – i have a request for feedback. Does the injection of non-basketball related themes/memes/media/references add, subtract, or do nothing to the overall experience here? For example the SNL Jeopardy reference and then Ghostbusters reference? Seems like there is very little if any commentary like “you guy think you’re clever and you’re not” or “Anyone know where I can find Ecto Cooler these days? Thanks for the nostalgia.”
SOUND OFF
@grover – did you see my response to you on the ‘Reading the Tea Leaves’ comment you just left?
“Being in an analytical/forecasting job, one of the hardest things to explain to senior management is the effect of compounding- of layered risk. Individually, each one of the items I addressed in the first paragraph make sense for a team at this stage of development. But when you layer them all together….I’m becoming very concerened that we’re creating a losing mentality that these young players- however talented- won’t be able to grow out of. They’ll either underwhelm in their development, or leave for greener pastures at the first opportunity.”
grover13+11 Quote of the year, so far, grover13. You just got yourself a free six month subscription to CtB.
@Nate – that’s all you’re giving him? How about 24 hour comment monster protection?
@grover – that is a very coherent comment. Thanks for adding to the value here. I will say that I have seen one of the symptoms of the losing mentality – the Cavs “core” players are losing trust in the system. Sometimes the Cavaliers actually do run an offense were all 5 players are in motion during a possession and there seems to be some decisive execution. The problem arises when a pass gets tipped or a player shuffles the feet or something goes awry (usually turnover related). Suddenly, Kyrie and Dion freeze up – and maybe they harken back to their high school days where if they just do a dragon ball z powerup they can will their game the way they want it. You can see it unfold. They offense completely stops (sometimes even the 2-man game stops) and they try to take people off the dribble and create a lower percentage shot with the other 4 guys completely out of the picture (and not being taken too seriously by the defense). I think this is part of that losing mentality – when you don’t trust what you’ve practiced and don’t have faith in execution or your teammates. It’s why Ray got benched by Norman Dale. (it’s EXACTLY that go re-watch Hoosiers)
I liked this recap format a lot.
There was one play in the first quarter last night where CJ Miles ran around two screens and caught a pass from Kyrie 15-feet from the basket, moving towards the basket, and I thought “wow, that looked like an offensive set.” That was cool.