like a drum
We measure events by their ability to pierce the cacophony of the world around us. During December this is an especially difficult task. The days are filled with caroling and figgy pudding, desperately trying to finish (or avoid) work before a long weekend, parents coming to see their grandchildren, Christmas shopping, Star Wars Christmas specials, holiday editions of Chopped, bowl games, worrying over bills, and elementary school concerts where the soundtrack from hell is played by 4th graders with hand bells. In the wake of the season, it seems as if the gravitas of this Cavaliers teams is fading quickly. I can tell by the way the comments have quieted. I can tell by the way no one talks about the Cavs at the office. The Cavs are drifting to the small print in the Beacon. Terry Pluto seems worn to the nub. The Cavs are in danger of fading into afterthought status: the winter Indians.
This game was endemic of the squelching of the buzz. The Cavs sorely missed Anderson Verajao: bringer of energy. Without him it seems as if the Cavs have none — no hustle, no excitement, no fire. Dion Waiters seemed as if he was trying to summon that fire at times, but he had no effective way to channel it. After a meh first half in which the Celtics started to inch away, the Cavs melted down in the first half of the 3rd quarter – lacking energy and direction, and ended up down 80-60. Somehow, 3 minutes later they’d cut the lead in half on a 12-2 Samardo Samuels, Kyrie Irving run.
Tyler Zeller, in his best offensive game of the season, helped cut the lead to 80-84 about halfway through the 4th. Tyler looked like he was at UNC, hitting on an array of jump shots, hooks, and freethrows though I believe that Kevin Garnett scored all twelve of his points on turnaround jump shots with Tyler Zeller (not really) guarding him. Speaking of (not really) guarding… Gee, Kyrie, Dion… all did a lot of that.
Then the Celtics pulled away, as basketball teams tend to do when the team they’re battling doesn’t play any sort of disciplined or coherent defense. The Celtics also realize what most teams should have realized throughout the year: to beat the Cavs in the late 4th quarter, just make anyone other than Kyrie beat you. The Celtics double and triple teamed Irving, and Kyrie obliged their dogged defense with a turnover, Gee too, and Dion Waiters with two more. It was certainly a game of runs, and The Celtics made more of them. Terry, Rondo, and Pierce ran the offense and dropped an easy 8-0 run in less than a minute. And that was the game.
I fear very much that we are at a tipping point for the Cavs. The Cavs are in danger not being a promising young team with a bright future, and instead being a lousy team that doesn’t play defense, doesn’t have an identity, and has a questionable future. The Cavs are wandering in the wilderness right now, and I’m not sure Byron Scott is their Moses.
I know the schedule will get better. I know the draft is coming. I know that they have two more games before Sunday. I know TT is trying. He’s even hitting free throws, and he’s learned how to pass. I know he’s the only Cav playing defense. But as a tribe, the Cavaliers seem listless: guided by a never ending series of baffling decisions on and off the court. Why is Dion Waiters jacking up long 2s and hogging the ball? Why isn’t he coming off the bench after Miles was so effective as a starter? Why is Luke Walton our de facto backup point guard? Why when he can barely stand up did Andy even travel with the team? Why not tell him to sleep an extra day? Why isn’t Casspi playing? Why can’t Paul Pierce’s defender resist the temptation to help? Why don’t all four other Cavs on the floor rush to pick a guy up the way Boston does? Why can’t Gee play defense any more? Why aren’t we doing anything about global warming? Why does the inevitable entropy death of the universe make me cry? Why isn’t Byron Scott screaming?
As another CtB staffer told me, “Watching the Cavs offense is like watching a pickup game. Watching the Cavs defense is like watching a train wreck.” I think that’s an apt description. But I’m not going to dwell on it too long. I think I’ll go check out the botanical gardens while my folks are in town, or maybe take Saturday and go eat my way through the West Side Market. I hear the Life of Pi is good, and I’ve got to take my kid to see the Hobbit. Maybe I’ll even watch a good basketball game tomorrow night.
What Tom said.
Also, like I said before, chances are, WE ARE NOT OKC. I’ve said this a million times – we shouldn’t be looking at a team that got lucky as the model. Chicago is a MUCH more reasonable model. One star and a bunch of fantastic role players.
Mallory, I totally agree that Washington is better right now if/when Wall comes back. They have a legit bench and solid vets who can play D. They are also handcuffed with over paid vets. They are at $59 million next year assuming Ariza picks up his option (he will). I’d much rather be in the Cavs place. The Cavs will spend soon. They will flex. Dan Gilbert after all is a powerlifter and probably stronger than any payer in the NBA (I’d wager he can bench more than any because of his stubby arms). Each day just gets us closer to that time. It’s gonna happen. Timing is everything in life. Right now isn’t the time to make a deal. What is the end game of making one right now? Unless they traded for an uber star (none available at the moment) they are long gone out of the playoff race. I like Millsap as a player. I really do. If he could be the stop gap until TT is ready or another young pick I would be down with his addition. I wouldn’t give up assets for him now though. Why give up future trade assets on a guy who could be a one year rental? A guy who you’d probably have to overpay to keep him anyway? The draft is a toss up. So is free agency. So are trades. The one with the best value/cost ratio for a franchise like the Cavs is still the draft. A contract lower than the league average and you aren’t giving up any assets (cap room/picks/players) to get them. I’m terrified of free agency. The amount invested in non-elite players is what kills teams. You never know when a guy is going to start doing coke lines or coke and fries.
Mallory,
Actually I don’t disagree with you. I wrote like 10000 words last year pointing out that the “OKC model” had worked once and there were about 10 different ways that very successful teams had been built. During that 23 – 59 season though, they started 3- 29. If they fired their coach, well….
The 20 wins for the rest of the season was primarily based on exactly where OKC was. If the Cavs are horrible all season, well…
SOmetimes I think it’s funny how similarly Cleveland follows the OKC model. Almost like they bought a book from Sam Presti or something, and they are reading the words (but maybe missing the context).
Step 1 – Draft twice in the top five in one draft. Pick a player that appears poised to be a top-five offensive player (Durant / Irving) and a player that appears to be a bit more average (Jeff Green / TT). Check.
Step 2 – Be bad again. Check.
Step 3 – In draft #2, pick a combo guard at #4 in the draft. Make sure the pick surprises people. Check. With another first-rounder, acquired through trade, draft a big man. Check.
Step 4 – Start the year really horribly the next season. Check. OKC was 3 – 29. Cleveland will probably be 5 – 24. Check.
Step 5 – Fire the coach (as Tom pointed out). Uh-oh. The Cavs are missing a step.
Noah and Deng were already on the Bulls of that Bulls when they won the lottery from the 9 hole.
In the end every situation is different. We try to peg this as another OKC model and fear that it’s a Kings fiasco. Each one is different. Different cities. Different owners. Different rosters. Chicago is a big market with a cheap owner. They also handcuffed themselves via free agency on Boozer. They have killer trade assets in the Bobcats 2016 pick and Nikola Mirotic. If they didn’t sign Boozer they could have kept Asik and traded for Harden. Free agency might have costed them a title.
Cleveland is a mid market with a spender. Gilbert is still the greatest asset the Cavs have. Without his willingness to spend the Cavs wouldn’t have Irving or Zeller. If we just had Tristan and Waiters I would be terrified. We don’t. I’m still for them waiting until next year and then going after an unhappy star with a bounty of picks and perhaps one of their young/non-Kyrie players.
Kevin -
Exactly. The thing is, over the course of these games, I’ve seen (and I imagine many others have seen) nothing to give us hope that this is going to change. I don’t remember that OKC season well enough to comment on any specifics, but I do know that their bench was better than ours, plain and simple. Tom and I actually went through the benches of all the OKC teams a few weeks ago. That average age that one of our commenters posted before says it all.
We do NOT need to get younger.
Cory – I hear you, I do. I get your mindset, I understand what you’re saying. And I agree about splurging on big name FAs.
But not signing ANYONE? When you’re one of the worst teams in the NBA? That’s nuts. That’s what dumb GMs do. Dan Gilbert may be a great owner, but the verdict is still out on Chris Grant, and he’s the one who pulls the trigger.
We toss around the word asset a lot, and at some point, when I have a lot of time, I’ll do a detailed analysis of all the FA signings vs draft picks (and where those picks were) that lead to teams winner. But the fact is that picks are worth more undrafted, on average, then they are drafted. Would you trade the number four pick for Enes Kantor? NO. NEVER. Would you trade the #2 for Derrick Williams? No. What about the #2 for Evan Turner? Or the #3 for Wesley Johnson? #5 for Ekpe Udoh?
I can do this all day. If I could trade our top pick for a decent player, I’d do it. I know I’m in the minority there, but the numbers speak loudly – your chances of getting someone decent are higher if you draw from a pool of pros than a pool of prospects. That’s a fact.
We have Kyrie, that was our home run. This team needs to stop trying to hit home runs and start building a freaking complete team.
I think people are confusing what they perceive to be the OKC model with what Presti’s, and Grant’s real models are. Building almost exclusively via the draft was simply the best branch for OKC to take, and just a part of the much more complicated real Presti plan. Presti apprenticed at SA and that is the real plan he uses. He, like Grant, is all about collecting assets and creating potential options that he can use to go down which avenue he thinks is best when moves have to be made. Presti chose to use the draft with OKC because he saw it as their best option at that time. If he could’ve traded those picks for young stars and those drafts were bereft of talent he would’ve gone that direction instead. Similarly, Grant has collected assets (extra draft picks, CAP room and roster flexibilty) that he can use to make the best choices as opportunities present themselves. If no FA’s want to come to Cleveland and the right players don’t become available via trade, his only path might be the draft. The truth is he will utilize whichever option offers him the best chance of success. That is true emulation of the Presti model.
Kevin’s series last year was a real eye opener about how many different ways there are to build a team. The teams that have success are the ones that create the most opportunities to improve. Then the team has to be able to judge talent when opportunities open up. Those are the skill parts that can be controlled. Then you have to factor in the luck part. A big part of that is having picks when future great players are in the draft. The other is being able to make a trade when another team is distressed and has to trade a quality player. The more opportunities a team has via draft picks and CAP space and roster flexibility the better chance they have if eventually being “lucky”.
Grant has a great plan in place. The amount of patience that fans will have to have will be determined by exactly when opportunities to use his collection of assets actually happens. Historically drafts are seldom weak for too many consecutive years and with the new CBA some teams will become financially distressed and forced into making moves that could benefit the Cavs.
Totally agree JAG. My favorite part of this forum unlike others is the constructive criticism and openness. This is generally a respectful sharing of thoughts without things getting too nasty which is pretty common on the internet. No Chief Keef murder feuds on CTB.
In the end it doesn’t matter what rebuilding formula we think would work best. Grant is following the OKC in the sense that JAG described it. Dan Gilbert is our greatest asset, but I can’t imagine him being patient after this season. He’ll want something done and hopefully the timing will be right to trade a bounty of picks and probably one of our youngsters for a legit star. I imagine that his luxury box has holes punched through the walls and he may have an intern that he beats the shit out of on a nightly basis.
@JAG
I think that what I was trying to say most of all, is that whatever Grant’s masterplan is, I am concerned about accidentally building up a culture of losing and becoming one of ‘those teams’. I understand that on a rational, business level “collecting assets and creating potential options that he can use to go down which avenue he thinks is best” is a good plan. However, mentally I think it can take its toll if the losing is not managed very, very well.
Guys, name the last team that won the NBA championship with a team of lottery guys they drafted.
That’s all I’ll say. When it happens, we can discuss the merits of it again. But it hasn’t in a very long time (ever?)
Robinson, Duncan Spurs.
That doesn’t really count though, as they were drafted 10 years apart and only because David Robinson and Sean Elliot got hurt the prior season.
Jordan, Pippen, Grant Bulls.
See Mallory, all you have to do is draft the greatest player of all time.
@Kevin Hetrick – Not even: Draft the greatest of all time…. and then wait six years. I wonder if Jordan would have stuck with the Bulls in todays world of constant player turnover?
The Thunder are the only team that even MADE it to the final with that make-up in recent years.
Doesn’t that worry anyone else? That ONE team has achieved a good (not even great, yet) team purely through the draft and small deals?
I’m really not trying to be a negative Nancy, but I just don’t see the benefit to sitting around and watching a team be awful if you’re Chris Grant. Any GM who feels they can’t build a competitive team without four top 5 picks in three years isn’t exactly a trustworthy GM. Particularly when one of those picks was Tristan Thompson.
God I hope I’m wrong.
@Mallory
The benefit of seeing your team be bad is found in looking at the alternative. If you like treadmills. they could spend their assets and improve just enough to be a middling team, without the remaining assets to improve enough to ever move up. Cue the next rebuild…
@Isaac
I totally agree that building a “culture of losing” is a major concern. I don’t see it becoming a problem for the Cavs as long as they keep determined winners like Irving and Varejao on the team as well as keep acquiring players of high character. They should keep improving enough to keep the fire lit on these guys and I don’t see Scott becoming a quitter unless they add a group of knucleheads for him to coach going forward. I’m more worried about the fans disenchantment, but that will be a short lived phenomena once the real winning begins. I hope Gilbert has the fortitude and patience to let the process play out if the fans do overreact.
JAG by your estimates, when is a team finally good enough to turn it on? 5 picks? 6 picks?
What about Dallas? Who were their super stars beyond Dirk?
Lets look at the middle-of-the-road teams – Atlanta, Indy, Philly, Denver, etc. etc.
The common thread? They don’t have a superstar. Not one.
Now, if you believe Irving is a super star, then that immediate raises us out of that class, right? I’ll contend that as long as you have the best guy on the floor, you always, really, should have a chance of winning. As long the rest of your team isn’t garbage.
I don’t know what crystal ball you keep looking into that says there’s some big move coming. As far as I can tell, our options next year will probably be similar to this year, except a few other teams will have massive cap space, and we’ll be one more year into a losing season.
Again, what happens if Waiters/TT/Draft pick X aren’t stars? Aren’t we in the same cycle you talked about? Except instead of being mediocre we’re now AWFUL.
It’s all a freaking crap shoot – if it was this easy, every team would do it. But it’s not. What is easy is to not build a garbage team, which is what we have. Everyone keeps telling me to be realistic and positive and looking to the future and be patient, but the fact is you, and I, know nothing about the future of this team. There are so many MASSIVE question marks that to act like the future is somehow a glowing brightness is silly.
You keep talking about the “real winning” like it’s this certain thing that is coming real quick. WHERE do you get that? What indication from this team tells you suddenly next year we become a contender? Because it HAS to happen? I don’t see the logic there.
Lets put it this way – you guys always say the plan is going accordingly…was the plan (and again, this isn’t pessimism, this is real, hard, cold facts) a probable bench PF who can’t shoot at the #4 pick, a SG who shoots WAYYY too much at the #4 pick, and then get a back up center?
Because that’s what we have now. Those three guys could literally go ANY direction. They have just as much, if not more, of a probability of becoming complete and total failures as they do of becoming stars. And that’s just based purely on the numbers of guys drafted.
Everyone keeps preaching numbers to me – that Grant is just playing his odds. I disagree. I think Grant is playing a glorified version of NBA 2k13, where you draft all these young guys, sign Dwight Howard or something, then storm the playoffs. But that’s not the way the NBA works. The OKCs are outnumbered by the SACs, the MIN, the CHA, etc. etc.
I would MUCH rather be the Hawks or Pacers, with Kyrie Irving as our star instead of Al Horford/Josh Smith or Danny Granger, than SAC with Cousins and Evans or CHA with…I dunno who. MKG?
Corey Hughey is officially my favorite person on these threads. Anyone who references Chief Keef is a friend of mine. Rawris and Rovas
@Mallory
There is no magic formula. It is all about being prepared to take advantage of as many opportunities as possible. The frustrating part is that you can’t completely control the luck factor. All a GM can do is position his team to take advantage of any and all opportunities. You’re right to a degree when you say it is a crap shoot, but the best positioned teams can improve their “luck” dramatically with their preparedness. By maintaining multiple future draft picks, salary CAP space and roster flexibility Grant is doing about all that he can be asked to do. The only variable we don’t know the definitive answer to is just how good he and his people are at talent evaluation. Irving was a HR but it will be awhile before we know for sure about the other picks. Any comment about the quality of those picks right now is premature.
That leads right into your question if it was so easy why isn’t everyone doing it? The majority of teams don’t have the fortitiude to keep with the plan and eventually lose patience and make fatal short term decisions that derail the whole process. There is no guarantee that a team will quickly have an opportunity to improve, but it is almost a certainty that if they lose patience they will waste their assets trying to force somrthing to happen and set themselves up for long term failure.
Real winning is about competing for championships and sustaining quality for years. Presti hasn’t just sat back now that he has a team capable of winning a tiltle. His trade of Harden was a proactive move to keep them competitive in the short term while acquiring assets that will give him the opportunity to either maintain what he has or keep getting better for the future. That sounds a lot like what SA has done for quite awhile.
I get frustrated too when I think that in the next few years some team is going to luck into drafting the next big superstar. Might be Andrew Wiggens in 2014. Probably won’t be the Cavs but I am confident that in that time frame the Cavs will have opportunities to make big improvements because of their preparedness. Those improvements might be big enough to offset the luck factor of the lucky lottery winner. Hard work and perparedness makes more people rich than lotteries year to year.
@Mallory
Your last comment expressing worry about TT, Dion and Zeller is exactly the type of thinking that team’s that fail fall into. They prematurely judge what they have, panic and make rash moves to improve short term, mortgaing their future. You would get tired of first round exits while making the playoffs regularly. Especially when the local stations started broadcasting Heat games locally because the local frontrunner fans started outnumbering the Cavs fans.
I get what you’re saying, JAG, I really do. But I think you’re overstating the value of a 18th overall pick. At least in terms of trade value. High picks (1-10) have a TON of value, but after that the value falls rapidly.
I’m not saying give up on Waiters/Zeller/etc. Actually quite the contrary. I’m saying let these guys grow into their roles with no pressure. Lets be honest, the lack of real scorers/these crazy losses are probably causing Waiters to jack up more stupid jumpers than he’s already inclined to take. That’s definitely not good. That goes for Tristan too. We’d pay so much less attention to his shooting woes if it didn’t feel like we needed those shots so desperately. But we do. And it’s probably too much to ask of these young guys. Not everyone can be a Kyrie stud.
One other thing. If Grant doesn’t trade picks, and spends them on busted players, doesn’t that act as a wasted asset? How is that any different than spending money on a guy who doesn’t pan out? I’d say it’s just as likely to set a team back.
I get your idea of flexibility, I do, but I think there’s a middle ground that has to be hit, and we’re just not there. What ‘s happening now feels like full fledged tanking. In year three of a rebuild that’s not where you should be…
We were a borderline playoff team last year before AV went down; now we are 2nd worst in the league…does anyone else have a problem with this regression (please don’t say Jamison is the reason we were 10-12 spots higher)? My tipping point was probably the Raptor loss (although the amount of open 3s by Pierce drove me nuts) where we were playing a team without arguably their 2 best players at our home, rested, and with full squad. Our D was horrendous and the rotations were just as bad.
I think there are two things here that are two very separate issues and we need to make sure the reason we are upset is not misconstrued:
1) Stockpiling young talent, draft picks, and flexibility (contracts/cap) – I think most of us here can wrap our heads around us not showing well in the standings due to a obvious effort by mgmt to avoid bringing in the wrong FAs too soon and to use our assets and flexibility when the time is right. It is a smart approach but a fragile one. As Mallory states, at some point you need to pull the trigger and put your best foot forward…whether it was this past off-season or in 1-2 years it will need to be done. We have our superstar, if Dion becomes a good starter and either AV or his trade returns amount to above average players we really only need another borderline all star player that can be surrounded by additional affordable complimentary players. But I think most people, like me, are not upset with the extra losses that come with this approach to building a team as it is done with a vision to the future. Which brings me to the real reason I am upset and I think others are…
2) Offensive/Defensive Identity – I am not going to reiterate what a lot of you have said already and the examples that have been given…regardless of us having a young and inexperienced team; there is NO excuse for the lack of a solid identity on either side of the ball and this can only come down to coaching talent/philosophy. There needs to be some shred of a winning culture (please don’t tell Analytics) on this team as well as adjustment/consequences to the lack of effort and focus. Byron seems content to instill no offensive/defensive system and the visual absence of care/intensity is alarming. When we finally do pull the trigger in FA and have had no system in place for several years do we all really think Byron will say, “OK now that it is go time I will start coaching now for real”?! Byron is a sub-.500 coach who has this intangible ‘works well with young players and knows the game’ stigma that we shouldn’t continue to give him a free pass for.
We were a borderline playoff team last year before AV went down; now we are 2nd worst in the league…does anyone else have a problem with this regression (please don’t say Jamison is the reason we were 10-12 spots higher)? My tipping point was probably the Raptor loss (although the amount of open 3s by Pierce drove me nuts) where we were playing a team without arguably their 2 best players at our home, rested, and with full squad. Our D was horrendous and the rotations were just as bad.
Jim –
Great comment. I think what’s missing from the culture side of things is some vet depth on our bench. Having a couple older (27-32) guys who know what it takes to stick around in the league and will work hard to do their assigned job.
I honestly think we win a couple more games with a more experienced backup PG, a more experienced SF, and a big man a la K-Mart.
@Mallory,
I’m not averse to trading the Cavs earlier picks to acquire the right player(s). I don’t think Grant would be either, as long as the right opportunity presents itself. In lieu of that opportunity appearing, having multiple picks on a yearly basis may be the best option. It is still a better option than having only the normal complement of picks a team has on a yearly basis. I also can see the possibilty of trading out of a weak draft to acquire even more future picks. Grant has done that with second rounders already. His belief that there are always a few players worth taking, even in a weak draft, might preclude his using that option with his first rounders.
Varejao, Gibson, Miles and Walton are all veterans that can add their experience to the mix. K-Mart might be the type of big to give/teach them the toughness they lack, but his baggage might also be a destructive force in the locker room.
Patience is a virtue. Imagine her as a hot babe that you wouldn’t mind embracing.
@Jim
I agree that it is frustrating to watch this team fail right now. I really think that it is jumping the gun to start assigning blame to Scott and/or overworrying about the potential of the youngsters. They need time playing together and their various injuries have made that impossible so far. The schedule has been killer and has made things even worse. That makes for far too many other variables to consider to accurately evaluate their talent level and the coaching staffs ability to communicate with them. I’d like to see them play together for awhile before trying to evaluate what the Cavs have to work with going forward.