Why wait for free agency for Millsap? Let's get him now.
The cool idea is to acquire more draft picks. I am anything but cool.
It is time to start considering a different type of trade; the desired return no longer consists of unknown quantities, but instead, proven commodities.
Assuming the Lakers reach the playoffs this year and Sacramento evades the dregs of the NBA in the next five; Cleveland possesses 14 draft picks in the next four years. Unfortunately, only twelve guys wear the wine & gold every night. With Kyrie quickly climbing the NBA ladder, next year represents the time for a big move forward. And frequently, free agency serves as a bastion of disappointment. So what to do?
Time to turn palatable contracts and draft picks into contributors. Below, I present three trades where Cleveland helps a middling team turn their prospects in a more favorable projection.
Trade One
What a mess the Dwight Howard trade became for Philadelphia. Their payroll rests at $65 million this year, and $47 million next season, for nine players, none named Andrew Bynum. If they are a fringe playoff team, two of their next three first round draft picks are dealt. With that bloated payroll and dearth of upcoming draftees, they built a five-hundred team.
I can help. How about: Thaddeus Young for Luke Walton, Samardo Samuels, 2013 Lakers / Miami pick and lesser of 2015 Miami or Cleveland selection?
Why it works for Cleveland: At 24, Young combines youth, production, and a reasonable contract (3 years after this, for $28 million). In this season and the last two, his PER hovers between 18 & 19, while RAPM considers him an above-average defender. His most glaring weakness, rebounding, pairs well with the Cleveland contingent of Varejao and Tristan. Add in Tyler Zeller, and a strong, reasonably-priced rotation mans the frontcourt for several years.
Why it works for Philadelphia: Did you see the lead? Other than owning Bynum’s Bird Rights, the Sixers could not make a max-offer to a free agent this off-season. If they make the playoffs, their pick goes to Miami, which then triggers their 2015 pick towards Orlando. A lottery pick this off-season remains theirs and sets the dominoes back one year. Trading Young and abandoning this season turns them from a “first-round-exit with a future of perpetual mediocrity” into a team building around Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, Lavoy Allen, Arnett Moultrie, $20 million in cap space and four 2013 draft picks (probably around 10th, 20th, 35th and 42nd…not bad). Other than this season, future prospects appear brighter.
Trade 2
Paul Millsap sits near the top of many free agent lists. But what if Utah wants something in return? In Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter, Utah currently preps twenty and twenty-one year old top-three draft picks as their front-court of the future. It seems unlikely to re-sign Millsap to a deal extending into their next contracts. Rather than plow through another April playoff exit, Utah should trade Millsap.
How about: Paul Millsap (signing an extension) for Walton, Gee, 2013 Lakers / Miami pick, Orlando 2014 2nd rounder, and worse of Miami / Cleveland 2015 selection.
Why it works for Cleveland: Millsap is really good. Plus a contract extension amounts to his age 28 - 31 seasons, still very near prime performance. Based on PER, he always resides as a top-35 NBA player. RAPM, which loves his defensive contributions, ranks him as one of the NBA’s best-twenty from 2010 – 2011 through this season. An efficient scorer with a solid mid-range jumper, and an excellent rebounder, the Millsap / Varejao duo provides an exceptionally productive and underrated front-court to pair with Kyrie and whatever Tristan, Zeller, and Waiters become. Also, Cleveland still keeps all their picks, plus a future Sacremento first-round and two extra second-round choices.
Why it works for Utah: Assume that February approaches, and Utah stands embroiled in a four-team race for the opportunity to get thumped by the Thunder in the Playoffs. Their long-term plans strongly consider letting Millsap walk via free agency. Shouldn’t they look to get something in return? With this trade, they enter Summer 2013 with their young core of Favors, Kanter, Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks, combined with three first-round choices and $30 million in cap space. Gee brings veteran athleticism at a reasonable price.
Trade 3
Portland’s record currently resides at a mediocre 11 and 12. Their 2013 – 2014 payroll eclipses $44 million for nine players, with 2014 – 2015 touching $45 million for eight players. None of those players is J.J. Hickson, presently fifth on the team in minutes and pacing them in PER. At some point, they owe a top-12 protected pick to Charlotte. Their best five players turned 27, 26, 24, 24 and 22 this season and have played in 96% of their games, against the League’s fifth-easiest schedule. Where is this team going? A fringe playoff team, minus one draft pick, with limited ability to add salary, and a bulk of their core already entering their prime? Maybe they win 8 of their next 10, but if not (Hollinger Playoff Odds are 7%), perhaps a shake-up is in order.
How about: Wesley Matthews for Alonzo Gee, Jon Leuer and 2013 Laker / Miami pick.
Why it works for Cleveland: As a third guard to pair with Kyrie and Dion, Matthews makes sense. Possessing good size, and as a 39% career three-point bomber, he will spread the floor for his new driving back-court mates. An efficient scorer, who tries on defense, there are a reasonable 2 years and $14 million remaining on his contract.
Why it works for Portland: Did you read everything above? If January passes with this team still winning half and losing half, it seems time to make a move. This move gives them the opportunity to make a max offer (similar to this off-season with Hibbert) and also restores their missing draft pick. Gee presents a serviceable replacement for Matthews; before being buried in Cleveland, Jon Leuer played well for Milwaukee; this move offers reasonable ‘now’ and ‘later’ situations for the Blazers.
Summary: Those are the three trades. Time to add some talent, using the plethora of picks the team accumulated.
That first trade looks like a really good deal for both teams.
I totally agree that trading draft picks might become the best way for Grant to proceed in order to improve the Cavs roster. I think you might be a little optimistic about the value of the Cavs late first rounders. One thing to consider is that if the Cavs decide to trade out of the upcoming draft because of it’s lack of talent, those picks might not be as valuable to other team’s either. With Utah already having two mid first rounders, that plausibly could both become lottery picks, picks are not that valuable to them. That is especially true when they need wings and a PG and the 2013 draft may not have any viable players at those positions.
I, for one, am happy that it is improbable that the Cavs will acquire the Sacto pick for 2013 because I don’t see the value in having too many picks in a bad draft class.
JAG,
As far the value of the Cavs late first rounders, in every trade, I used the Lakers pick this year. Currently they are as bad or worse than each of these teams. The Lakers pick could be 18 – 20, which in the case of Portland or Philly is close to the value of the pick they lose if they make the playoffs.
For Utah, I don’t know. It seems that Gee plus draft picks is better than nothing. Maybe they’ll play the season out, or maybe another team will offer a package of players that sways them. Maybe they plan on resigning Millsap and tying up $30 million of their 2015 – 2016 payroll on power forwards. The draft isn’t heavy on elite point guards, but draftexpress’s mock draft has five of them between picks 20 and 31. They could take a flier on two, then sign a middling free agent to start for now.
cavs send varejao, kings pick, lakers pick, and samardo samuels to milwauke for ths years first round pick, john henson, doron lamb, and drew gooden
I completely agree with JAG – late first rounders hold pretty minimal value. And most these teams will have plenty of cap space. I just don’t see that being enough to get a deal done.
I like the players mentioned but I still think Grant will wait until after the season. Sports is full of the unknowns and that’s part of it’s appeal as a subterfuge. We have no idea which direction this bottle in the ocean is gonna go.
What we do know is that teams are scared of stars leaving for no return. Teams are terrified that they will become…the Cavs. Since Lebron left Melo, Williams, Paul, Howard, Harden have been traded preemptively ….There will be other trades like this in the next few seasons. Through 2014-15 the Clippers, Heat, Knicks, Bulls, Nets, Celtics, Nuggets, Grizzlies, and Thunder (basically every contender) will be over the cap or close to it. The Lakers will be around $30 million just for Howard and Nash assuming they don’t add any other salary. There will be stars to be had via trade and the Cavs are one of the few teams who can offer young talent, draft picks and cap savings from the luxury tax. That’s the rebuilders blue print.
The luxury tax is gonna force many teams to rethink how they go about their business. It will be a hard cap for most of the league. There should be some Kurt Thomas here’s two first rounders just take his salary off our books trades. Love will probably get traded next year if they can’t make some noise in the West.
Stealing a Tom moment – anyone see the game Hickson is having, again, through three?????
Does no one see the irony, as we do the Hickson watch, in being upset that a young big man figured it out when he left Cleveland, that everyone wants to run Tristan Thompson out at the same time?
I have watched 75% of Cavs games since 2002. Tristan has been so much more impressive through 80 some pro games than Hickson was.
@David, thank you for pointing this out…
@Kevin, I completely agree with you that this team needs to start acquiring proven commodities. The lack of veteran presence on this team is uglier than I could have imagined (we still have only 5 wins?!). I want nothing to do with more draft picks at this point. Kyrie will be an All-Star next year (if not this season); we need to surround him with players that can actually roll with him. I don’t particularly want to watch a struggling rookie SF play catch up while we waste another year of Kyrie. It is NOT too early to start worrying about Kyrie leaving Cleveland either. If this team misses the playoffs next season, you’ve gotta figure his patience starts to wane. Field an actual NBA team, please. Trim the fat, trade/sign for veterans. Playoffs.
Brandon -
AMEN! PROVEN VETS. That’s what we need. It’s pretty dang clear.
Alright that was over the top. But I think it’s what we need. haha
And wait, Brandon, c’mon, give me some credit, man. I don’t think ANYONE has argued stronger on here for vet presence than I have.
Cavs need payroll.
They will be seriously under the minimum next year.
Baron Davis is being paid $12 million this year and it counts.
There are not great free agents coming out next year.
Draft choices get paid NBA-set salaries.
Therefore, this type of trade makes great sense.
Many Cavs fans seem to value late draft choices.
In the NFL, a 6th round draft choice is probably a top 8 player at his position.
(24 positions counting PK, Nickel, Slot WR, etc. 24 X 8 = 192/6 rds. X 32 = 192.)
There are only 3 positions in the NBA; Scorer (SG-SF), Big (PF-C) & point.
By the 24th pick of Round 1, you have exhausted the top 8 players at each position.
Unfortunately, trading the Heat/Laker pick may not attract other teams’ interest.
Have to agree with Dave. I do not want to give up on TT too early, because A) He plays hard. B) His sins are usually sins of execution, not effort or just being a general knucklhead C) He’s very engaging, and he’s just likeable as heck D) I see flashes, and more flashes than I ever saw from Hickson…
He needs a better coach.
Anyway, as for the trades. Trade 1 is ok… Thad Young isn’t a bad SF, but I’m wary of small forwards that can’t shoot 3s. Still, he’d be our best shotblocker and one of our better defenders. I can’t imagine he’d be worse at the 3D role than Gee.
As for trade 2, no way. Don’t trade assets for a guy who can walk in the offseason, and that we could sign anyway. Millsap is not going to make a max deal, and if he does, we probably don’t want him. The advantages to trading for him would be that we could pay him more than any other team, but I actually think that hinders us and would force us to overpay to keep him. You’re all forgetting that Utah is a playoff team right now. There’s no incentive to trade Millsap. Also, they already have Golden State’s 2013 pick which will be in the teens. There’s no incentive to have 3 mediocre picks in a below average draft. You’re also forgetting that they have another recourse: sign and trade. An S&T will probably happen with Jefferson if he leaves, and doing it with Millsap is another big possibility. I don’t see them screwing up an opportunity to play in the playoffs and grow their young core.
Trade 3: Portland only does it if they’re dumb. If I were Cleveland, I’d do it in a heartbeat, but Portland has $40 million in salaries committed next year, and a guy they feel could be a franchise player in Lillard. Why would they trade a solid 15.5 PPG Shooting guard with a very resonable contract (there aren’t a lot of these around) who plays defense for a worse swingman and a mediocre draft pick in a mediocre draft when they have the money to make a good free agent signing next year? The big names aren’t coming to Portland, so they don’t need to clear the Salary that badly (and if they want to, they can package Matthews in an S&T, anyway) Matthews’ PER is just average, but it’s mainly because he is fairly low usage offensively. His +3.3 simple rating tells a better story.
The more I look at NBA rosters, the more I feel like there just won’t be that many trades this season. I think a lot of rosters have been pared down, so that there will not be that many teams in Salary trouble next year. It’s really only going to be Lakers, Memphis, Golden State, Minnesota, New York, New Jersey, Chicago, Clippers, Boston, and OKC, and all of those teams are pretty locked into their rosters. There will probably be a Gasol trade, and we may be a third party to it, but other than that I think there are so many teams with cap room this offseason, that a lot of them are going to take wait and see approaches. I could be wrong, but the season is going to have to shake out a bit more before we really know who’s going to be traded. I don’t think any of the three of those are real possibilities. Our best bet for a trade? Eat a bad contract to get a player we want.
How about Gortat/Michael Beasley for Luke/Boobie/Zeller and Lakers/Heat pick, or a future draft pick? IT gives us a real center, and a year of Michael Beasley who I hate, but I love Gortat.
Or… We eat Ben Gordon’s contract next year for a Gerald Henderson/Ben Gordon, for Walton, Boobie, and Gee, and either the Lakers/Heat pick or a future. It would tie us into Gerald Henderson, who we’d have to teach play defense.
What about John Salmons and Tyreke Evans for Walton, Boobie, Gee, and a pick? I’d take Chuck Hayes and/or Jason Thompson if the Kings want to unload them too.
But… I just don’t see a lot of trades… The Gasol situation will be the Lynchpin, and I could definitely see the Cavs being a part of it. A three way deal that moves Andy to the Lakers, Gasol to a Third team (Houston?) , and lots of assets to the Cavs (probably by bringing in a 4th team) would be more than the Lakers could hope for…
I see the Lakers trying to grab Andy as well, Nate. I think it will be discussed.
I like your thinking Nate. Eat a bad contract to grab a player. Grant has used Gilbert’s willingness to eat bad deals to land Kyrie and Zeller. If they make a trade this year I think it will be something closer to these. He has an owner who is willing to spend and that’s his greatest bargaining chip. I doubt Gilbert’s patience will last much longer, but these are ideal deal. Sarver is like the guy who sucks at Monopoly and is going broke so he’ll trade you a primo piece of real estate for a couple bones. They obviously haven’t been able to channel Beasley (top 10 offensive talent in the league). Gortat is miserable. Just to get out from under Beasley’s contract they might do that.
Here’s the one I’ve been kicking around that I’m kind of against, but kind of for….Carlos Boozer, the draft rights to Nikola Mirotic and the Bobcats 2016 unprotected first round pick in exchange for Walton, Boobie and Cj Miles and a the Lakers/Heat 2013 first round pick. Reinsdorf is notoriously cheap and getting rid of Boozers contract would give them a shot at landing stud in free agency to pair with Rose and it would save them from having to pay $30 million to Carlos Boozer. It would be a strange homecoming but they’d only be on the hook for two years. After a year he would become a trade asset. As much as Cavs fans justifiably hate Boozer, he can do a lot of the things that Tristan can’t. The other two could be enjoyed here or used as trade assets down the road.
I’m drunk so disregard whatever I have typed.
I think the desperate team at the moment is the Lakers. They would probably be willing to trade some potential assets. Jordan Hill and Ebanks for Gibson and Casspi and a pick could work.
The lakers need a stretch forward. Andy is not that. Do I think they become much better? You bet.
I like option C. As much as I like Gee, Wesley Mathews 3point shooting would do so much for Waiters and Irving’s development. He could be our 3rd guard but still possesses enough size to guard most SFs in the league. At that point, we could overpay Millsap(10-12mil) and add another lottery pick this year, ideally Shabazz.
Pg Kyrie
Sg Waiters
SF Shabazz
PF Milsap
C Zeller
with Andy and Mathews as our first big/guard off bench. Throw in Tristan and an average backup PG and…we’d lose somehow because we are Cleveland(that part hurt). Though I wonder if Mathews starting and Waiters playing off the bench would make more sense as neither Shabazz or Waiters are intimidating anyone spotting up in the corner, whereas Mathews in the corner with Kyrie and Milsap running pick and roll, Zeller in other corner, and Shabazz ready to make a backdoor cut sounds pretty nice to me
Nate Smith,
My Millsap trade was contingent on agreeing on a contract with him. If it’s a 3 month rental, then I agree, “no way”. It takes the uncertainty out of signing him, which is obviously not a given. For Utah, they are battling for the right to lose to OKC (as of this morning, they are out of the playoffs). If that is their goal this season, I guess that’s fine. The team never holds many chips in a sign-and-trade, so you don’t get much.
As far as weak drafts, the last one was 2011. That produced Kyrie Irving. Near (or after) the range of Utah’s picks, it churned out Kawhi Leonard (15th), Iman Shumpert (17th), Kenneth Faried (22nd), Marshon Brooks (24th), Chandler Parsons (38th) and Isaiah Thomas (60th). There are a lot of other players that show promise that I didn’t mention. Again, if Utah wants nothing, or one pick from a sign-and-trade, that’s cool. If Cleveland wants to take their changes in free agency rather than negotiating with him one-on-one, that is fine, too.
If not, teaming Millsap, Varejao, TT, and Zeller sounds like a nice frontcourt for 3 – 4 years.
Nate Smith,
And for Portland, it’s $44 million next year, plus $45 million the year after (assuming they pick up Lillard and Meyers Leonard). That’s doesn’t include Hickson. So, if they re-sign Hickson, they basically have the mid-level exception left, with Lillard as the only player young enough to expect much growth from. I guess they can spin on the treadmill of mediocrity, but if they continue winning half their games, some change seems warranted.
Matthews isn’t a S&T candidate because he’s signed through 2014 – 2015.
We need VETS for our bench. I was going thru the list. Came up with these by position in order.
Personally would rather spend on JR than Millsap. If we keep Andy that is.
Back up PG’s — If we can pay boobie 4.8 mill, we can spend 2-4 easily for a backup pg
Foye(2-4 Mill) Ideal backup PG for the 2nd team.
Mo Williams(4mill)
2′s
JR Smith(4-6 Mill) (he’s done a lot of growing up and would be 6th man of yr for us.)
Shannon Brown(4-6)
Tony Allen(2-4) Great VET leader, would be ideal on a 2/3 yr deal as a D stopper to set tone for Kyrie/Dion.
Nick Young(5-7)
Anthony Morrow(2-3) *3ball specialist*
Dominique Jones (1-3)
DAHNTAY JONES(1-3) Toughness….3ball.
Interesting name would be Ginobli.
3′s
Iggy-(13-15 mill?) Not sure he’s worth it?
Corey Brewer-(4-6 mill)Hits the 3,finshes on the break and is D stopper at the 3. High motor.
Dorrel Wright(2-4 mill) 3ball and defense.
Kyle Korver(2-4) **3 ball specialist**
Sam Young(1.5-3) * Defense/hustle specialist*
4′s
Millsap(8.5-10 Mill)
Splitter(3-5) 6-10 guy who can run pick and roll and also pass
Blatche(3-5 mill) Completely turned career around in BRK
Landry(4-5) Poor version of Millsap.
5′s
Nikola Pekovi(5-7 mill) Also restricted and would be matched….but you never know.
Zaza Pachulia-(3-4) Toughness and solid backup big.
Timofey Mozgov(2-4) 7ft decent backup.
BJ Mullins(3-5) Zeller 2.0 — used if Andy is dealt. Also restricted
By adding any of these guys the cavs can instantly get into contention next year. It’s all about our starting 3 and our bench scoring and identity. The identity could be figured out with tough guys Allen or Young and the Scoring dealt with by Smith or Young. Millsap off the bench to avg 14-17 ppg would be ideal as well. I also still wouldn’t rule out a deal with Andy to Boston and Bos gives us Jeff Greene and picks, or somehow pry Wes Johnson off PHX. Poor guy looks so depressed on their bench. Could have a Corey Brewer type revival once he gets some PT and plays the 3.
Thoughts?
Mallory and JAG,
I think you are undervaluing the value of late first rounders. Yesterday in a comment, I saw Mallory refer to an article I wrote last year about the eventual production of players coming from the various draft slots. One point of that article was that the 26 – 30 picks provided better “value” than the 11 – 15 picks.
Looking at draft pick salary structure, #17 pick Tyler Zeller has a contract as follows: 2 years guaranteed at $3.2 million total, then 2 years of team options at $4.3 million total, then he becomes a restricted free agent subject to a qualifying offer.
#28 pick Perry Jones III, has 2 years guaranteed at $2.1 million total, then two years of team options at $3.2 million total, then becomes a restricted free agent.
Second round picks typically sign 3 year, $2.5 million deals with only the first year guaranteed at like $500K. After three seasons, then they become restricted free agents.
So, let’s say the Cavs miss on TZ. Their risk is 2 years and $3.2 million for a player at the end of the bench. A team needs to pay someone to occupy that spot regardless. If they hit though, they have a good player wrapped up for 4 years, $7.5 million, then when he becomes a free agent, the market can set his value and the Cavs just need to decide if he’s worth it. For PJ3, it’s a ‘risk’ of $2 million, with a 4 year, $5.3 million deal if he works out. Second rounders…even better risk / reward ratio.
The NBA has set up a rookie contract salary structure that is immensely favorable to the teams. I am sure that many franchises appreciate the opportunities that this brings. San Antonio basically built a dynasty by filling in around their veterans with cheap, young, rookie-contract role players. Even with the trades outlined above, Cleveland keeps plenty of these low risk / possible reward options at their disposal.
Interesting point, Kev. I still think a late first rounder probably won’t be enough to seriously entice teams, though.
But in each trade, it’s some combination of salary relief, Gee, multiple late first rounders, etc.
I think the best sales point we have us cap space. I don’t really think Gee is going to entice teams into a trade. The guy didn’t get any big offers in FA. If people wanted him, they would’ve offered him $. We’re likely going to have to part with TT/Dion/Zeller for a big-ish trade.
I love the Tyreke/Salmons idea, though. I think it’s actually a two-fold win.
side-note: how many techs get called in the pacers game tonight? If Andy plays, I say three. If he doesn’t, I say zippo. The pacers HATE andy verajao.
I wasn’t considering a trade for Thad Young or Wes Matthews as biggish; salary relief, a reasonably priced role player and a few draft picks seemed sufficient.
Ok, so we disagree. I’m ready for more people to argue with me.
I agree that the Cavs need to acquire proven commodities in order to build a team that can contend not only in a 3-4 year window, but for the next decade. My problem with making these trades THIS year, is that the NBA is a much different animal than MLB or the NFL. Unless you are in a mega market in the NBA and can entice super stars to team up and sign/demand being traded to you, the only way to acquire stars is via the lottery, and really the top 1-5 picks at that.
The only way to win an NBA Championship is with star players. I know the “wanting to lose is a loser mentality” side of things, but that is really what we need this year. We NEED to be in the top 5 (and really the top 2) picks in order to get a player coming out of college (Noel would be my top choice) that can go alongside Kyrie and Waiters and form a “Big 3″.
Then, next season, trade any assets and extra picks we have in order to acquire veterans that can fill needs and make the team overall better. But, we MUST lose this year and nail our top draft choice in order to have a chance to win a ring in the future. I hate that I’m saying we have to lose, but we really, really do. You aren’t going to get a star after picks 1-5, and really, in a year like this, most likely not outside the top 1-3 picks. Even that is a crapshoot. I’d be fine with compiling picks to move up in the draft, as well.
Kevin’s point lends credence to those (including me) griping about TT. He’s not like Andy drafted late who you can afford to keep around for 6-8 years before it clicks for him. In 2015(QO), TT is due upwards of $7.1M. He needs to step it up to stick around. Which reminds me, remember when some people were ripping on Andy’s deal? Man, that thing is a gem.
As for the parallels of TT to Hickson, Hickson always flashed offensive talent, it was he rebounding and work ethic that was the problem. Hickson decided to up his worth ethic, good for him. TT has all the heart in the world but basically has to learn how to play offense. He has a much harder road forward.
@ Corey: I think there were some great fits, some okay fits, and some places we’d disagree on the players. The problem I see is players saying “coming off the bench for a lottery team seems like a good career move” more than likely the JR Smith/ Milsap types would only end up here if it meant 1. An increased roll or 2. More $ or years. Also with the cavs unfortunately its teams would be in decussions with us probably jump to Andy, young talent, or future picks pretty quickly so dangling Gee might stop negotiations before they start when we have other more notable commodities.
@C Hughey:I do however love the potential Chicago trade. We give them vets that should help their playoff run and cap relief for potential assets. And the bulls can invest in Gibson then.
I think the Cavs have to either absorb a bad deal or take a risk to improve via trade. Maybe Gee and Walton to OKC for PG3, Maynor, and a salary dump or Varejao to Minnesota for Pekovic and D Williams. I think both of these position us for when Waiters and this year’s pick are coming into their own and hopefully the cavs are knocking on the door.
No one is asking to ship TT out of town. What we are saying is that it is worrisome that our front office used the #4 pick on a player that might never be as good as the player we forced out of town because of that #4 selection. And if you’ll recall, before that pick happened, Hickson most certainly was part of our core moving forward, and didn’t play that badly for us either the year prior. He didn’t ever suck except for the year in Sacramento. I still hope TT becomes a much better player than hickson, and I certainly don’t propose trading him for peanuts, but the move confused me at the time it was made, and I would still do things differently if I had a time machine and was in charge. From an unbiased opinion, I don’t think TT+Casspi’s value will ever match Hickson+Valencunas.
Southwest FL here’s my question – what guarantee is there that we get a star in the draft? If we don’t get one this year, do we keep tanking?
I think my biggest issue with how bad we’ve been is that it feels so unnatural. Even though we’ve drafted four guys in the top 20 in two years, we’re still horrific. That’s not really natural progression of improvement.
And Kevin, I definitely agree getting a decent-ish role player is a top priority. I’m actually of the camp that says if you’ve got one megastar, another fringe all star, and a lot of excellent role players you can compete. I actually like that formula way more than the “three big stars and a bunch of junk” theory because it actually gives you longevity. If Lebron and/or Bosh leave Miami, they’re suddenly pretty bad. But the Mavs continue to at least be competitive (despite last night) even though time and time again they let people walk.
Its also unfair to point out how you felt about both players while wearing the wine and gold, as Hickson was our last saving grace to convince Lebron to stay, and thusly had hugely unfair expectations put on his shoulders, and was judged in a much different light. Then when lebron left, a fan base accustomed to 60 win seasons watched him lead a team to wins in the teens. Its an entirely different situation and mindset than watching TT, who has struggled as much or more than hickson, but on a team with next to no expectations. And I’m sick of everyone pointing to his Defense as proof he’s better than hickson. If TT wasn’t a plus defender, He’d be the one of the very worst players in the NBA, and certainly the worst one getting 20+ minutes a night. If he was a super defender, the cavs wouldn’t be so awful at team defense. His defense is solid, not spectacular. His offense on the other hand is every bit as bad and Hickson’s defense ever was.
ALSO Southwest – really, in what world is Waiters a star? It’s fine to remain hopeful, but be realistic. There’s a SLIVER of a chance he becomes a star – that’s the case with almost any draft pick. But right now he’s extremely flawed. If he puts it together, great, but lets not jump the gun here.
Swirving, I agree. There’s a lot of projecting of hopes onto these players. TT is fine at D and is young – he’ll probably get better. To what degree, who knows. But lets stop calling him a force. If TT was a defensive monster, Dion was a budding superstar, and Gee was a lockdown defeender and decent spot up shooter, we’d be a fringe playoff team. We’ve won five games.
Unfortunately, Joe, I don’t think the Thunder or Twolves make those trades. Gee’s value is completely overstated here and Derek Williams, despite a mediocre beginning, is still supremely talented and very young. He hasn’t really been given the opportunity to shine yet, and I think MN knows that. They definitely wouldn’t trade him when his value is this low.
Mallory,
While I agree with questioning unabated optimism, I think you’re a little premature with the “we’d be a fringe playoff team”. Obviously in 2008 – 2009, Durant and Westbrook were on their way to become two of the game’s best players. Durant and Jeff Green had played 31 of the first 32 games and Westbrook all 32. They were 3 and 29; half their games had been at home. If the team doesn’t improve as the season carries on, then the concern is more warranted.
Kevin, I didn’t realize that non-restricted players can sign an extension at any time. From what I’m reading, the limit of a “extend and trade” contract is 3 additional years, which is probably one less year than Millsap is looking for. http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q9 So that might be a tough sell. But the idea isn’t bad.
Corey, Please review my free agents list from last week, as I think you’re missing some guys, most specifically Brandan Wright.
Mallory,
Also I know you don’t think that Kyrie is the equivalent of Durant (almost impossible). And it’s not likely that Waiters is an Olympian in 2016. My basic point is just that this 5 – 22 start doesn’t foretell doom; really good teams had similar stretches.
Agreed, Kevin. I’m probably pre-mature in this. But it’s my gut feeling paired with what I’ve seen on the court. We’d have to see Waiters suddenly stop taking contested jump shots, TT consistently get 8-12 points, and top tier production from Andy. Plus our bench would have to turn it on. I just don’t see that happening with any more consistency than it has this season. My guess is the first thing that happens is Scott gets canned, but this organization, for some bizarre reason, seems pretty happy with the way things have gone.
Nate Smith,
You are correct about the ‘extend and trade’. I didn’t realize this…the CBA is complicated. So, if Howard excepted an extension from LAL, it could have only been for three years? With that as the case, no wonder he chose to keep his free agency open.
That does complicate my proposed Millsap trade. Eh, if he wouldn’t accept whatever Cleveland can offer him, then there’s no trade.
Kevin – I definitely get your thinking – don’t cry wolf until you’re sure it’s a wolf, blah blah. It’s totally true that bad teams have had awful stretches. But HORRIBLE teams have also had stretches like this. In fact, 9/10 these stretches are indicative of bad teams, not good ones that are struggling. The number is probably way higher than 9/10. Probably 99/100.
Nate Smith,
Yeah, it looks like I messed up. Actually looking at the faq, it looks like this season counts towards the three seasons. So, only two years could be added to Millsap’s current deal. I am suprised by this. When disucssions of trading & extending Howard, Bynum, etc come up, it doesn’t seem like this is ever mentioned. Am I missing something? I guess these deals happen less than seems apparent.
I’ve mentioned this in comments before, but as an unpaid blogger, I disclaim responsibility for understanding every wrinkle of the CBA. Sorry, readers.
Mallory,
I’m not necessarily even saying ‘good’ teams, just ‘young’ teams. The one example I keep mentioning involved a team relying heavily on young players, basically three top-five picks in two years. They weren’t good yet; they were very bad, but they were on their way. The Thunder did fire their coach.
Whatever people projected onto Hickson is on them. I am simply talking about the way he played in Cleveland, and the way Tristan Thompson plays in Cleveland.
Kevin thats good analysis on the late picks. I honestly haven’t given them a ton of value.
Thad Young would be an awesome fit, but I think Philly would want a bit more back. Not sure what though.
Can you sign extensions in the season? That is the problem with the Millsap offer. If we were actually looking at a playoff berth than taking a risk for 3 months and trying to extend after would be good, but since we aren’t I dont know if it is worth the risk.
David,
Check out the discussion between Nate and I below. Yes, an extension could be signed during the season, but as Nate properly pointed out, a sign-and-extension could only include a couple of years after this one (plus only 4.5% raises instead of 7.5%). Millsap probably wouldn’t be interested in such a deal. My bad…
So, uh, guys, I think Mallory wants a little validation.