Yeah I read that garbage. Yes, "garbage", you can quote me on that. Shout out to my homie, WES, for believin
The disclaimer at the beginning of the first installment of Trends, Ranks, and Outliers was that “it’s early” [in the season] and that these were highly volatile. How prophetic. Since then, the Cavs have played 7 games and the Trends aren’t so Trendy, the Ranks must have been shown to an enraged C.J. Miles (there’s no other explanation), and the Outliers are slightly less outlying. Let’s quickly recap.
Trending UPWARD was Omri Casspi. He’d made half of his 3s and his PER was above average. Since then? 1/7 from 3, and a handful of DNPs. Hopefully he gets back into the rotation and starts hitting from deep – the Cavs need some floor spacers.
CJ Miles Ranking? When we last checked in with C.J. Miles he was sporting the NBA’s worst WS/48 among players with more than 150 minutes played. The Worst. Today? 7 games later? He’s moved ahead of TWENTY-TWO players. And the accompanying FTA:FGA ratio? Miles has blasted his way from 6th worst in the league to 36th. Since I authored that post and attempted to embarrass my friend for predicting Miles could be the Cavs second leading scorer, Miles has been…the Cavs second leading scorer, averaging a robust 18.3 ppg. Who wants to get made fun of this week?
The Cavs riDONKulous block differential Outlier? Completely vanished. Haha yeah right, it’s still there, and it’s still a huge outlier – see chart below. However, since we’re all about BEING POSITIVE here at CTB, on behalf of all Cavs fans everywhere, I’d like to rejoice that the Cavs are now being “out-blocked” by only 4.6 blocks per game – almost a whole block less per game than the -5.5bpg they somehow accomplished through the first 18 games of the season! (Click and then click again for full screen)
Let’s take a look at some other areas I’ve been quietly contemplating while I watch the losses pile up.
Trending: Back into Earth’s Orbit
Anderson Varejao’s overall production has started to wane slightly. At one point, Varejao was in the top 5 in the entire NBA in various composite production stats. That’s completely ludicrous, as he’s spent the majority of his NBA career being a “no-stats All-star”. He’s still killing it, but it’s more “All-Star” and less “1st Team All-NBA”. Since his otherworldly streak of double doubles ended, Wild thing has finished 4 of 6 games in single figure scoring, including an 0-9 stinkbomb. Since the last installment of this column, Varejao is shooting 36% from the field. To the naked eye, it seems that Varejao’s Kevin Garnett-like proficiency from 18 feet was a mirage. Wild thing is still swallowing up an obscene amount of loose balls. He leads the league by a country mile in offensive rebounds (this could have been the topic of today’s “outliers”) and total rebounds, and has just a slight edge on the rest of the NBA in defensive rebounds. Of note, I’ve watched a lot of Varejao this season and I’ve tried to verify if he, Byron Scott, or any of the Cavs are trying to pad his stats. The answer is an emphatic HELL NO. Andy concedes just about any rebound to a teammate if there are no opponents in the area, he doesn’t play garbage minutes, and the Cavs, as Nate has often pointed out, never runs plays for him, even if some think they should. There’s no Ricky Davis or Javale McGee stench ’round these parts. Actually, Andy’s not getting anything easy. In NBA all-star voting, he’s behind Joahkim Noah, who is NOT having a better season, as well as ANDREW BYNUM. Trolling NBA fans… Now if the coaches don’t vote Andy in as a reserve? That would generate angry, spreadsheet-filled letters from all of the NBA’s stat-geeks, hopefully written in comic-sans.
Ranks: As a team, the Cavaliers are: (hoopdata, bball-ref)
1.) 5th worst in FTA disparity
2.) 2nd worst in eFG%, (worst by FAR in eFG% differential)
3.) Worst in FG% of Shots at the Rim
4.) Worst in Assist Rate
5.) 1st (BEST!) in Offensive Rebound Rate
More misses = more offensive rebounds. Keep at it, fellas.
Draw your own conclusions. Here are mine: The Cavaliers offense does not move defenses from side to side, does not mix up play-calling, and does not have the right personnel taking the right shots from the right locations. A healthy Dion Waiters will slightly improve 1-4. Last conclusion: If the Cavs trade Anderson Varejao, they will be the worst team in the NBA by every configurable “win/loss” metric.
Digging a little deeper:
These issues are partially personnel, and partially because the Cavs do not make defenses pay for collapsing the paint on forays to the rim. Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, Alonzo Gee, Jeremy Pargo, and Donald Sloan all have one thing in common – they all love to beat their man off the dribble and head towards the rack. Only 1 of them, The Dark Knight, can finish a contested shot. The others either abort, get blocked, or just miss. Unfortunately, this “tool” – the ability to beat an isolated defender and get into the teeth of the defense – is completely wasted on the Cavaliers. This is partly because the Cavaliers are terrible at swinging the ball, and partially because the only effective “floor spacers” on the Cavs are KI, DW(at least that one game), and Boobie Gibson(Casspi doesn’t play). See the problem? Watching the Knicks play, they have 2 or 3 guys that can penetrate, 3 or 4 OTHER guys that can stroke a 3, and they even have a dive man living above the rim as soon as a defending big has to step in front of a JR Smith foray to the rim. On the Cavs? If someone steps in front of Pargo, where is the ball swinging? Alonzo Gee in the corner? Anderson Varejao or Tristan Thompson 17 feet out? (they pick and pop, Chandler picks and SKIES) I can’t even begin to count the number of times this season the Cavs set up their predictable Princeton offense, with the primary ball-handler receiving a high pick, penetrating, getting cut off, and throwing it to either Thompson or Varejao 17 feet from the hoop with less than 10 seconds remaining on the clock, leaving all of the Cavs players in a position they are LEAST comfortable being in, and proceeding from there. It’s not the Cavs shot location that is the problem (their EXPECTED eFG% based on their shot LOCATION is just fine), it’s that the wrong people are in the wrong spots at the wrong times. Varejao shouldn’t be launching 17 footers, Tristan shouldn’t be facing up and trying things from 10 feet out, Boobie shouldn’t be trying to take people off the dribble, Sloan shouldn’t be putting his head down trying to finish over taller players, and Pargo shouldn’t be spotting up for corner 3s. And I could make the case that you could just switch the last names and everything would be alright. This might seem cliche to say, but the Cavs really need to generate higher quality looks. They need to draw whistles if they aren’t going to convert around the hoop (the block party has to simmer down), and they need to get out in transition more often. The Cavs “look” their best when 1 of 2 things happens: an individual GETS BUCKETS, or the game gets chaotic. When the game slows down, or an opposing team really digs in – the Cavs cannot score. The Cavs offense IS hero ball, but they only have 1 hero, and the style isn’t sustainable for 48 minutes.
Outliers: The Cavs had 3 players wearing masks last night. Has that ever happened before?
Andy looks beat. I understand the logic of wanting to win games but breather here and there is needed. If he gets hurt he no longer has trade value. He’s a bargain when he’s on the court. Not so much when he’s injured.
They should at least keep him till he can get his allstar game with Cleveland, the coaches have to vote him in, especially if bynum is still hurt he’ll get in just because bynum can’t play. Right now there are only two centers playing at an allstar level in the east, Noah and varejao. I give varejao the edge but the Cavs don’t get as much press love as the bulls do.
A spot on analysis. The Cavs are the epitome of a team in which the players mainly do things that they should not do and they seldom do things that they are good at. The PER of most of the Cavs players is rapidly dropping below 10. The Cavs look like a team that has no guidance and no plays planned. The guards are driving to the hoop and the bigs can get some stats on the board if they are able to recover some of the misses. It is not a lack of talent. These guys could play much better if they knew what they are supposed to do. Popovich would take this team to the playoffs easily.
Tom Pestak,
Nice article. Most of the season, the Cavs parts on offense look like more than the sum. Even when the Irving, Waiters, Gee, Thompson, Andy unit was firing on all cylinders early, it was due to Irving, Waiters, or Gee making one-on-one plays, or TT or Andy grabbing o-boards. The only time the Cavs offense has produced ‘pretty’ two or three man offense this season is the Kyrie to Andy pick-and-roll.
This could be two things:
1. The team lacks talent, experience, and experience playing together. The third thing is undoubtedly true; other than Andy and Boobie, this team just hasn’t played much together. Between injuries the last two seasons and new additions, no one had much opportunity to gel with their counterparts.
2. The offensive scheme is noncreative or not well coached.
Because of #1, I think the coaching gets a pass this year. But next year, between a top-5 point guard, Coach Scott’s personal pick in Waiters, two great offensive rebounders, and presumably a little additional talent; a threshold needs set. Something like, the team produces a top-16 (per possession) offense next year, or a coaching change is considered. Things needs to start coming together in 2013 – 2014; the offense looking smoother, the rotations being more set, etc.
Cory Hughey,
I agree. I say sit Andy against Boston on Tuesday. It’s the second night of a back-to-back, on the road…let Andy get some rest. The schedule is about to lighten up dramatically, so no need to risk injury to the team’s thirty year old center, in a tough away game, during this brutal early season schedule.
Anyone else notice that 6 of the 8 highest PER’s in the East (Blatche, Lopez, Chandler, Bosh, Andy, and Nene) so far are posted by centers? And that that names “Garnett” and “Horford” didn’t even appear in that list? Clearly the world is ending.
Thanks for the honest look at the team.
What is Grants plan other than drafting 2 first rounders? We’ve seen some nice FA names flashed around here but even one or two of those is not fixing the Cavs problems. It’d be nice to see a solid rotation PG even if the Cavs have to pay a little more. Someone who can start 20-25% of the games since Kyrie does seem to attract freak injuries. I don’t think Pargo is the answer long term and apparently Scott doesn’t think so either.
Am I the only one feeling less and less confident about Byron Scott as the Cavs’ head coach? I’m someone who hates knee-jerk fan reactions calling for a coach’s head… And while there hasn’t been any particular instance that has turned me OFF from him, has he really had any defining moments in Cle? The Cavs’ personnel-related struggles have been well documented, but at this point three years into rebuilding, the roster isn’t an excuse anymore. The Cavs brass could have picked up better FA’s at any time; they clearly have enough confidence in the current talent and *coach* to SURELY have won more than 5 games by now (?)… I didn’t expect to be playing in the Finals this season, and yes there have been some unfortunate injuries, but I wonder at times if the players on the floor are really being put in the best situation to win.
Just to play the pessimistic contrarian: for all the talent acquired, staff and personnel changes, deft business maneuvers, etc we’ve praised the Cavs for… The team is still last in the Central division. Many other rebuilding teams seem much farther along than Cleveland, and they don’t even have a Kyrie Irving!
DaveR – I think a solid rotation PG has to be near the top of the wish list for Chris Grant. They could go for anyway, but Jarret Jack is a good option imo. He’d probably command around 4-5 million a year. Ramon Sessions might also be had for that money – but I doubt they would try to sign him again.
@Nathan – I’ve always thought Lopez was underrated. Didn’t understand why the world was ending in Brooklyn when they had to stay with Lopez over D12. Didn’t seem quite as draconian as replacing say LeBron James with Christian Eyenga. Can you even imagine being a Wizards fan right now? Blatche and JaVale McGee made up one of the most disappointing young front-courts in recent memory – and after a trade and an amnesty? They’re both have PERs north of 24! Blatche in particular is absolutely breathtaking. Career highs in usage, points, TS%, and rebound rate – after getting AMNESTIED. PER went from 10 to 24! And the Wizards are fitting the bill!
Tom- great article. Probably the most insightful analysis i’ve read to date in regards to the cavs struggles. It makes a lot of sense what you put forth.
@ Kevin – overall i agree that problems emanate from a combination of lack of talent, experience, and coaching. The players that the cavs have probably aren’t the best fit for what B. Scott wants to do. Beyond that, i’m not entirely sure they have the talent to execute what he’ asking of them. IMO a couple things need to happen over the next couple years. As talent gets added to the Roster (Im operating under the assumption that C. Grant will continue to add pieces via draft/ trade and the roster will continue to take shape into something relevant) B. Scott needs to be able to fit everything together with measurable improvement. Its not enough to say the players “effort” isn’t there. Everyone knows he’s a stubborn harda@#, he needs to take a step back evaluate the talent he does have and figure out how to win.
I’m almost positive Blatche having a higher PER than Garnett and McGee having a higher PER than Griffin were listed as signs of the apocalypse in Mayan lore.
@Carson – I’ve been skeptical since the day they announced the hire. Since Scott’s hire, Andy, Kyrie, and Gee have exceeded their expectations. No other player has performed better or looked comfortable since he became HC. I think two missing pieces that could really help Byron Scott are a backup ballhandler/playmaker that looks to create for others, and an above the rim flyer looking to throw down alley-oops every time one of the Cavs 5 flashy dribblers get into the paint. Josh Smith has the tools to be this guy but he’s way to mercurial to offer the max. JJ Hickson has the tools but he’s pretty putrid defensively and might not fit the character profile the Cavs are going for. Also, I think I’ve been warned like 20x that I’m not allowed to mention his name on this blog. Maybe someone in the draft is the answer. Varejao can certainly finish around the hoop but unlike the Zydrunas years when Z was setting the high screens and Andy was flying baseline to baseline looking for easy buckets, now it is Andy setting the high screens and either Zeller or TT roaming the weakside. Zeller does generate a fair share of easy buckets from these cuts – TT doesn’t convert at a high enough rate yet.
As skeptical as I am about Byron Scott – I’ve never really been able to understand what is is that makes a good coach a good coach besides bottom line things. I’d argue Mike Brown and Stan Van Gundy are better than 80% of the coaches in the NBA right now -and both are without jobs. There was nothing special about Mike Woodson in Atlanta and nothing special about Mike DAntoni in NY, and now Woodson has NY looking like Heat-beaters, and DAntoni seems really ordinary since he left Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, and Leandro Barbosa in their primes. Phil Jackson is the greatest coach of all time and Mike Brown took a worse roster (500 more minutes from Bynum but lacking an entire year of Lamar Odom’s 20 PER) further in the playoffs last year than Jackson did the previous. Doc Rivers was called one of the worst coaches in the league and is now considered the best by some. Greg Popovich is considered elite (and I believe this to be true) but he’s had the benefit of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker (3 hall of famers imo) for almost a decade and those guys are so unselfish they can implement almost any style Popovich wants. John Kuester was a GREAT offensive coordinator for the Cavs – and as soon as he landed his HC job in Detroit they had one of the most disastrous seasons ever (with the Rip Hamilton stuff http://deadspin.com/5771372/rip-hamilton-yelled-at-coach-john-kuester-so-hard-the-younger-pistons-were-mortified) So I guess what I’m saying is – I wouldn’t know what the mark of a great coach would look like on a bad team. Stefan says Popovich would have this Cavs ensemble in the playoffs? I see where he’s coming from, as the Spurs deploy role players which much less upside than the Cavs and are 10x more effective. But I have a hard time believing that. So I’m going to give B Scott the benefit of the doubt and try to set a baseline for next season, as Kevin said.
Well, Mike Brown’s out there, Jeff Van Gundy, Quinn Snyder, P.J. Carlesimo, Larry Brown… I personally think the best coach available in the universe right now is Brad Stevens from Butler. Eric Musselman is a good coach, but I don’t think he’ll get another NBA shot. He would be a good offensive coordinator under Van Gundy. Brian Shaw is reputedly a coaching candidate whose name gets thrown around a lot. I think he could be good, but I wonder how tied to the triangle he is. I actually think Jerry Sloan would be a fantastic coach for the Cavs. I can’t stand Stan Van Gundy, to be honest. Tom Crean, who’s been turning out NBA draft picks left and right out of Marquette and now Indiana would be another fantastic college coach who I think could make the jump to the pros. And of course, there’s always the idea of making another run at Izzo.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1328592-the-genius-assistants-behind-the-nbas-best-head-coaches/page/2
Mike Budenholzer from the spurs might be a nice pickup… Ron Adams of Chicago would be a nice guy to instill a defensive mindset…
Yeah, the more I go, the more I don’t like Scott. One thing that annoys me? He doesn’t know how to work the refs. Scott doesn’t know how to use technical fouls smartly to make a point or to motivate his team. He’s at times, far to stoic. I don’t know…
I’d say the best way to judge a coach is to ask if he’s getting the most out of the players as individuals, and team as a whole. So… I guess it’s still hard to say. I’d rather have continuity than a circus, though, so I certainly wouldn’t want Scott out if that means everything getting shaken up again.
Your analysis of the players who drive to the basket somehow misses the fact that Dion, ALONE among all Cavs players basically, is able to make PASSES off the drive. Pretty incredible passes, in fact. Furthermore, he is damn good in a pick and roll as well, so it’s not just Kyrie.
Speaking of that, the Cavs guards are all, save for Kyrie and Dion and they are inconsistent, TERRIBLE pick ‘n roll passers. Gibson is perhaps the worst if all. They all are painfully slow in recognizing the time to get the ball to the roller and most of the time don’t make the pass at all. That why we see so much dribbling by Gibson, Sloan and Pargo and then shitty shots at the end of the shot clock.
The other day Luke Walton made my point clear. He came in and ran a sideline pick ‘n roll with TT that lead to a DUNK. Please point out the last time that happened with a Cavs guard? And it was ALL because Walton got him the ball right away and passed it over the defender to where all TT had to do was catch turn and dunk, essentially. Now I will grant that Walton is taller than a guard and so maybe that’s a pass they can’t make as easily but the timing of the pass was equally important as the placement.
As for Gee’s shooting at the rim, it’s a respectable 59%. Which is funny because he’s 25/27 on dunks (%93) and 33/72 on layups (%46). Everywhere else from the floor? 12/41 from 3-9 feet, 5/19 from 10-15 6/24 from 16ft-3pot line, and %28 from 3. Yuck.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/geeal01/shooting/2013/
If he’s not in the key or on the left side of the court behind the three point line, he shouldn’t be shooting.
Watch the video of Kyrie “getting buckets” again. There are only 2 players consistently in the right position on offensive sets (aside from Kyrie): Boobie and Varejao. Gee and TT are almost always out of position. Look at the possession at 40 seconds where Andy is posting up on the right side. He gets bailed out by Kyrie and there are 3 CAVS IN THE PAINT ON A POST UP. This should NOT happten. ever. And how about that abysmal screen set by TT? Kyrie actually misses two pass opportunities to Gibson in the corner, but as hot as he was he didnt really need to pass it. My point is that the offense is stale, and that byron scott is still trying to figure out where to put his players. It could be that they don’t know how to play with each other, or that they can’t play together, which would be worse. When everyone gets healthy we can really get a good read on what this team can do.
According to Lloyd, if Dion plays tomorrow, as expected, it will be only the 6th game this season that the whole roster will have been available. That’s crazy…
Kj,
Agreed. Walton has one really good NBA skill left and that’s passing.
Tom Pestak,
I watched the Blazers – Hornets game last night and Hickson was on fire. Fadeaways in the post, 18-footers, eight offensive boards, soaring alley-oop finishes.
I’m still going to say I don’t miss him though. I’m stubborn.
I will admit I do have some frustrations every once in awhile with Scott. He seems rigid at times, and maybe a little too committed to routine. That being said, maybe that is exactly what a young team needs. Mostly, though, I just think the Cavs have young or bad or young and bad players and Scott is just making due with what he has. Irving has missed a lot of time.
Pretty much right where Kevin is at. More or less a free pass until next season when I expect Grant to make some tangible progress towards winning. As patient as I am right now, it won’t extend past next season.
And here I was under the impression that Walton’s only good NBA skill left was an expiring contract.