Link to the Present: Dion Comparisons
2012-12-18
At least one of these three guys will play tonight (hint: it's the guy in the suit).
With Dion returning tonight, now is an apt time for this link. A Mr. Ed Manly occassionally emails me, whenever he publishes a new article at his blog, laughingcavs.com. The post this weekend focused on Dion Waiters early season performance relative to several other NBA rookies-past.
Interestingly, the first 1035 possessions of Waiters’ career are vaguely reminiscent of Dwyane Wade, however the Heat rookie did shoot many less threes, with an associated higher frequency of shots at the rim. Regardless of anything that Jim Boeheim or Byron Scott have said though, Mr. Manly (or me) do not condone tying All-NBA / Finals MVP expectations on Dion. A few all-star games would be cool.
Also, the bottom of the article features a table that compiles information on 26 perimeter-playing rookies over their first 1035 possessions, from the last ten years. Dion’s PER languishes, but he is similar to Eric Gordon, Jason Richardson and Russ Westbrook. Going to another set of advanced stats, the Cavs-rook ranks 6th in usage, while staying above fifteen players for offensive rating, largely thanks to a miniscule turnover rate. Areas that hurt him include the third-lowest free throw rate and the worst offensive-rebounding percentage.
Give it a read. The article is thoroughly researched and offers a fairly comprehensive glimpse of how previous stars performed early in their careers.
(Spoiler alert: Kyrie possesses the highest PER, and the best offensive rating combined with second-highest usage. He was also 19, younger than at least three-quarters of the list. That’s a baaaad man.)
Kevin – they should definitely sit Andy. He’s banged up. By the end of the game he could barely move.
The only thing more offensive than the D-Wade:D-Wait comparison is Waiters’ shot-selection, zing. But seriously we could have found a guy with no sense of morality with his shot selection in the 2nd round. I’ve been out on Waiters since after the first month.
Well, that was one of my least favorite games of the year. The rookies looked bad.
Dion,
Sorry, but I need to quit linking to / posting nice things about you until you earn it again.
Forgive me for being “that guy”, but I wonder where his free-throw rate would be comparatively if the refs regularly called it when he gets fouled?
His FG% is WAY worse. He needs to improve there before season’s end before he deserves that comparison.
DaveR,
His FG% isn’t way worse; because of his better three-point percentage, Dion’s effective field goal percentage is actually higher. Wade’s 40% was really bad.
That said, he will still probably never deserve the Wade comparison. That’s not meant as any sort of knock on Dion, either.
Rough re-entry for Dion.
I’m enjoying Andy’s effort tonight, but after the two hard falls, I still fully support sitting him tomorrow. Two more games Friday & Saturday, then the schedule lightens up immensely.
No, it wouldn’t mean those things at all. If he got more offensive rebounds it would mean he would be sticking his nose in there when he should be always staying back to keep the defensive floor balance cuz he’s a guard! Furthermore (context alert) his team has two elite-level offensive rebounders in Andy and TT. Absolutely no reason for him to chase offensive rebounds.
The blocked shots thing is the same. It is a nearly useless stat…
The numbers are all fun. The two guys play completely skewed game-styles. D Wade plays big, like he’s a small fw running an offense and not a guard. Dion plays like a typical shooting hard, even though they are roughly the same size. For the record I would love it if Dion got a few blocks/offensive rebounds here and there. It would mean he’s playing around the rim on offense, which i want more of, and it would mean he’s trying on d
It will be hard to say anything flattering about this team until they start winning more than 2-3 games per month.
Btw, this article is a perfect example why PER cannot be the big be-all, end-all stat is has become, despite protestations to the contrary. Dion is far ahead of Wade in the stuff I want a guard to be good at, offensive rating and low TO’s while Wade made his PER by being far better than Dion in blocked shots and offensive rebounds. That is a clear example of why MUCH more context is needed when comparing players using advanced stats. We could ALL be doing a better job of that, IMHO…
I made this point vis-a-vis Wade and Dion and how strikingly similar the numbers were and, unsurprisingly, Pestak tried to laugh them off. Well, at least one other person now has at least seen the relative entertainment value, at the least, of comparing the two…