Thoughts on James Harden Part III: It’s Never Too Soon to be Thinking About June.
2012-12-09
Ah... Summer.
In my last installment of this series, I wrote about what the plan needs to be from here on out for the Cavs.
The Cavs have to start trying to contend in 2013-2014.
In 2013, Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson will be on the 3rd year of their rookie scale contracts, leaving two seasons for them to play before they’re eligible for extensions. Additionally, the best dollar for dollar player in the NBA, Anderson Varejao will be on his ridiculously underpaying contract at less than $10 million a year for 2013-2015. Further, the only salaries the Cavs have to pay next year are Andy, Dion, Irving, TT, Gee, and Zeller: the core. This comes in at $27.6 million. Given the cap holds for another top 5 pick, and a 15-30 pick , we can estimate a cap hold of around $5-6 million. So, the Cavs will have a total salary of roughly $34 million. Given a cap of $58 million, this gives the Cavs $24 million to play with.
Now that we’re in the dog days of December, and the worst part of the Cavs’ schedule, it’s nice to look ahead to a happier time when visions of all stars will be dancing in our heads. The end of June will mark the start of NBA free agency, that lovely time when career scrubs who’ve had one good year get massively over-payed, and old vets get minimums to be player/coaches.
When I wrote the above, I did not count for the cap holds for the qualifying offers and non-guaranteed contracts of the other members of the team. As can be seen on the link, the numbers for Casspi, Miles, Pargo, Samuels, Sloan, and Leuer add up to just over $10 million in cap room, all or any of which can be renounced. Miles, most interestingly has a completely non-guaranteed 2013 salary which can be a nice trade chip for next year in a trade-and waive scenario. This gives the Cavs anywhere from $14-24 million to play with depending on who they want to keep. Remember, they MUST spend 90% of the cap, which means around $54 million total. This means that the Cavs will need to spend a minimum of $10 million on free agents in 2013 just to get to the salary floor, and that’s if they keep all their draft picks and restricted free agents at around their qualifying offers.
I’ve written many times that the new CBA is going to change everything. Teams over the luxury tax threshold are going to have to make hard choices about who they want to keep. Only the mega-rich are going to be able to go well over the tax threshold for extended periods: New York, Brooklyn, L.A., and maybe Miami. With that said, the Cavs plan should be to pluck free agents and restricted free agents from teams that are in danger of going over the luxury tax. With that in mind, let’s start looking at the 2013 NBA free agent class.
The Max Guys:
In a word, these guys are “the balls”: the Ron Burgundys of their fields: the all stars. They are getting max salary or close to it. Most of these guys are going to be re-signed by their current teams, and if they’re not, the odds of them coming to Cleveland are about as high as the odds of the Browns running the table and winning the Super Bowl this year. Players include Chris Paul, Monta Ellis, Manu Ginobili, Paul Pierce, and Dwight Howard.
There’s one player in this group who might be the longest of shots to sign with the Cavs:
Andre Iguodala: Long coveted by the Cavs, Iguodala has an early termination option that he will exercise unless he gets hurt. He currently makes $16 million, and would be a fantastic player for the Cavs with his defense, finishing, leadership, and ability to play without the ball and run the floor. Unfortunately it’s going to take $17 million plus per year to sign him and make Denver think twice. Also, he’s currently sporting a 14.2 PPG/ 3.8 APG /5.2 RPG/ 1.2 Stl /13.64 PER line (the per game averages will follow this format throughout this post) which is below average efficiency. He’s also 28 and has a game founded on athleticism and hustle. He would be a big risk on the back end of a 4 or 5 year deal, but he would give the Cavs instant credibility, as he’s respected around the league.
The Just Below Max Guys:
Most of these could get a close to max contract if the situation worked out right for them. These are the guys that are going to be using teams like the Cavs for leverage, and we can probably only afford one of them.
O.J. Mayo: Breakout year for him with a 20.9/3.5/3.9 19.25 PER. The Mavericks fleeced the rest of the league signing him for a paltry $8 million over 2 years last summer. Unfortunately for them, he will, barring injury, decline his player option for next year and hit free agency looking for a substantial increase on his $4 million dollar per year salary. Given the future (hopefully) strength of the Cavs back-court, he would be a tough guy to commit $12 million+ per year to. The Mavs have $44.4 in other salary commitments and they need to pay Darren Collison, so they may or not elect to keep Mayo. Knowing Cuban, they will probably elect to re-sign mayo, but if they bow out, there will be plenty of other suitors.
Josh Smith: A VERY intriguing player who would probably be in the max group if he was having a better year. At 17/3.6/8.4/2 blocks 17.4 PER, he’s been coming on of late, but is shooting only 45% from the field, but a mind boggling 38% from three. He’s a player who’s always thought he was a stretch 4, who couldn’t shoot like it, yet this year he just might be the player he’s always wanted to. Also, 82games has him at a net of +9.3 points per 100 possesions. Smith is 27, and probably has 1 good contract left in him, especially since he’s a player that relies on athleticism and will probably have 23,000+ minutes in his career by year’s end. Unfortunately, he’s a bit of a head case and the longshot of longshots. It would take the max and a major dissatisfaction with Atlanta for him to leave. Additionally, since Atlanta has only $18 million in Salary commitments next year they’ll be able to match any offer. They’ll be competing with the Cavs for free agents. Danny Ferry has done an awesome job flipping the Joe Johnson albatross for flexibility.
That's right, I may make more $$ than any other player this offseason.
Al Jefferson: One of the last true centers left in the NBA, big Al has one of the most polished post games in the league. At 17.4/2/10.7/1.2 BLK & 21 PER, he is having a very good year. But big Al seems to have good years when his contract is up, and the worry at 27 is that this is his sign and retire deal, especially given his large size and somewhat sketchy injury history. Given that he brings a very rare combination commodities in the NBA: size, rebounding, and a post game and already makes $15 million, he could command a very large salary of around $19 million per (the NBA max). The Jazz have 26 Million in commitments, and a lot of holes to fill. The choice for the Jazz will probably come down to him and…
This one's for Dani.
Paul Millsap: The #1 mentioned 2013 free agent at CtB. At 14.6/2.6/8.2/1 BLK 18.9 per game, he has had to play a lot at the 3, given the Jazz’s crowded front court, and has stretched his game out past the 3 point line shooting 50% this year, on only 1 SPG, but 46% in general from the floor. He’s 27 and has a game predicated on athleticism and strong shooting play and around the basket . With decent durability, he can probably be a good get on a 4 year deal. He would immediately move TT to the bench, and be a decent 2nd or 3rd option in the Cavs offense. My guess is it will take about $13+ million a year to pry him away. He or Jefferson may have to come by sign and trade.
Kevin Martin: The sharpshooter OKC acquired from Houston is currently making $12.5 million, and scoring 15.4/1.7/2.4/1.2 Stl 18PER, shooting .465/.478/.931. He’s a lights out guy, and would not be a bad player on the Cavs, but at 29, and with the need to overpay him ($13-$14 million to get him), he’s probably not what we’re looking for, even though his offensive skills probably won’t decline too much with age. He can play either wing position, but isn’t much of a distributor.
David West: A very solid player who at 32 (note the age, Andy trade proponents) sports a line of 17.3/2.7/8.6/1.1 BLK 20.5 PER for the Pacers. He might be worth overpaying for 2 years to bring some professionalism to the team and work with Tristan Thompson for 2 years, especially given their similar body types. West currently makes $10 million, and keeping this rate of pay up or even a modest raise for a couple years wouldn’t hurt the Cavs much. I like him very much as a fall back plan for the above bigs, or even in addition through sign and trade.
Reuinted, would it feel so good?
Andrew Bynum: Who would’ve been solidly in the top tier just 5 months ago, is currently hemorrhaging future money with his knee issues and meh attitude towards basketball. He’s currently paid $16.7 million and will probably have to sign a make good contract this off season. If anyone gives him long term big money, he’ll sign it. This is Gilbert Arenas in 2008 all over again. The Cavs should RUN from giving a long term deal to a guy with Bynum’s attitude and and knee issues. If they could take a flyer on him on a 1 year deal with a team option, he might not be a bad gamble. It will be interesting to see how dumb teams are when it comes to Bynum.
Does it ever get old?
The Intriguing RFAs:
The restricted free agents’ current teams all have the ability to match any offer that the Cavs would give, as long as they extend the player a qualifying offer. Large RFA offers usually really irritate the teams that own the players rights.
This is my "happy to be in Sacramento" face.
Tyreke Evans: 15.5/3.7/4.9/1.3 STL 17.85 PER is the line this year for the mercurial player from Sacramento. 2010’s rookie of the year has been trapped on the league’s most dysfunctional franchise for the last four years, and had his role shifted in the offense multiple times. The results have been sketchy to say the least, and he’s currently battling a mysterious knee ailment. However, he can attack the basket, play three positions, and seems desperately in need of a leader to follow. He has a $6.9 million dollar qualifying offer that the Kings will probably extend. Given his remarkable similarity to Iggy’s numbers, but his increased efficiency, wouldn’t he be the perfect high risk/high reward player to bring in on a front loaded contract that the Kings might think twice about matching? Say $13 million for 2 years, dropping down to $10 million in the 3rd and a 4th year team option? This also keeps with my plan of pissing off all the other teams by tying up their cap money in restricted free agents.
Brandon Jennings, Darren Collison, & Jeff Teague: Good players, but we don’t need another alpha point guard. However, the fact that they’ll be taking up other teams’ time and money will be good for us.
Gerald Henderson: 13.3/1/2.7/1.3 Stl / 19.31 PER, Henderson has a $4.3 million dollar qualifying offer, and is currently a very efficient scorer, though not much else, and a lot of that is coming off an otherworldly 63.6% from 3. He will undoubtedly regress to the mean. But could be a high value wing. It will probably take a $10.5 million+/per year offer for his Airness not to match, which is probably a little rich for Gerald Henderson. Alonzo Gee is a homeless man’s Gerald Henderson at a third of that price.
Tell me he and Andy wouldn't scare you a little.
Tiago Splitter: 6’11” 240 pound 27 year old super sub for the Spurs. 9.2/1.2/4.7 21.5 PER. A teammate of Varejao’s on the Brazilian national team. I’m sure Andy would love to play with him, and he’s probably due for a big pay raise. With a $5.9 million QO, he will probably get most of the money captain Jack is making this year, stretching his salary to $9 million+. We could probably overpay to get him at $11 million, which would make for a strange dynamic with Andy, and I’m wondering how much of his numbers are the magic of Popovic. Still, he might be the most intriguing of the restricted free agents.
Conclusions:
Ideally, we could get one of these guys, and then one of the guys who’ll be featured at the top of Thursday’s article, ToJH (might be time to drop that since none of it is even about James Harden) Part IV: the Mid Tier Free Agents. As for the guys on this list, my vote is to make a run at Tyreke Evans and/or Tiago Splitter. Evans is the only quality affordable wing on this list, and a Splitter/Andy lineup would be a thing of beauty. Tie up those teams cap money if they match, and then if that doesn’t work out, go after David West. I like Josh Smith and I like Al Jefferson, but I think they’re simply going to cost too much money, and the odds of us getting them are too low. Being smarter with Dan Gilbert’s money will help the Cavs trade for guys like that or pick them at pirates’ terms when they need to be traded. As for Paul Millsap? I think he’s fine, but the guy at the top of Thursday’s installment in this series is an even better value.
As far as Tyreke goes, I don’t think 5 assists a game from the 2/3 is an indication of a poor distributor.
Keith, The question is will “value” bring us a winner? You could sign, I dunno, Nate Robinson (not that we will) to a value deal, but will he bring a championship versus someone like Milsap? No, likely not. At some point you absolutely have to pull the trigger. That’s where I find flaw in Grant’s thinking – I understand being careful with your cap space, but over caution can lead to stagnation. I mean, we’ve been cautious with this team and…uh…look at it. We’re 4-17. I realize we’re missing Kyrie, Dion, etc. etc. but the fact is we’re losing. Obviously… Read more »
Yea, I mean, they can say they dont want to target free agents, but they offered Batum 13 mil a year, and tried to acquire Bynum, an impending free agent. Kyrie and Tristan will be eligible for extensions before their 4th seasons. I would expect Kyrie to sign the max, and Tristan to wait until he is restricted before the Cavs match or they agree. And yes, I think the Cavs will match or resign Tristan. Waiting on LeBron seems pretty silly to me. Tyreke is a good scorer but he doesn’t shoot well, which means he doesn’t really compliment… Read more »
Jason Lloyd posted a great read the other day about Chris Grant and Dan Gilbert’s commitment to the rebuild through the draft and trades. Not in FA.
Grant stated that the Cavs would rather pay the team bonus money to get to the salary floor than be forced to sign FAs to long term deals. I don’t see the Cavs going after any FA this summer unless they can get them on short, flexible deals. Gilbert is willing to spend big, but with the cap, the flexibility is more important.
They won’t overpay…keep targeting “value”.
@ versus i would never again root for the cavs just to be clear
ARGH! Comment monster ate my post! What I basically said was “Cols, you’re crazy, trolling, or both, because you’re big on Dion Waiters but you wouldn’t give up a mid-to late first rounder for another flawed young player with a whole lot of potential. And starting a comment with ‘um’ is obnoxious.”
@Cols, seriously, you have to be trolling. You’re hardcore on the Dion Waiters bandwagon, but you wouldn’t trade a first rounder for Klay Thompson? I’m not necessarily saying Thompson is better than Dion, but both guys are young players with a lot of warts right now and the potential to get a lot better. If Golden State was willing to give him up for a mid to late first round pick or two, I’d say go for it. That said, if we’re talking a lottery pick, then no. Lottery picks should only go for sure things. Also, “um” is a… Read more »
I love the idea of signing Evans. It would be sweet to keep two of Tyreke, Dion, and Kyrie on the floor all game. How fun would that be to watch? It would be very fun.
@Versus I agree that they should maintain cap flexibility for the event of a return. By then Kyrie should be much better than Wade’s broken down corpse. That’s still two years off. They could still take a cash dump this year and stock up the trade chip arsenal. With their cap room and Walton or Boobies expiring deals there are plenty of possibilities. They’ll still have cap room next year if they do take a cash dump. I love future unprotected draft picks. I really do. I believe under the CBA you can trade a pick up to 7 years… Read more »
Um
Please don’t trade a 1st round pick for Klay Thompson.
Just give Kyrie a max contract and sign Lebron when he opts out of his deal. No reason to throw money at guys like Iguodala/Bynum/whoever — just keep developing the kids, retain Andy and sign Lebron. Should be title favorites for the 2014-2015 season.
Just to be clear, if I had gotten a comment stuck in spam, it would have been great as well.
I actually meant Cory not Carter. Sorry guys!
Carter, your post that got spammed was great but I can’t unlock it. Only Nate can. Basically Carter said he’d take an salary dump next year with some first round picks over signing an overpriced FA. The logic is sound – a first round pick is an asset, etc. etc. The problem is too many young guys means inexperience on your team. Even OKC went for a couple semi-expensive old dudes – you need them to motivate the young guys. It’s for that reason I say IF we trade for first round picks, we should probably flip them around for… Read more »
Agreed, Isaac. Had a point, went over the top with it.
Corey, I enjoyed your comment, and great point on missing on picks being not nearly as disastrous as missing on free agents.
“You either die Cols714, or live long enough to see yourself become a self-parody”
– Batman
Guys, please let me know if my criticism ever becomes as bat shit insane as this^
Cols –
Those are some valid points about this Cavs team you have there. Nice job!
Previewing the recap from Mallory
1. Tristan Thompson sucks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We can’t trust Grant to draft because of this and for all of those who want to go the OKC route this is why it is so hard!!!!
2. Andy is great
3. Irving’s defense sucks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
4. Waiters is taking too many shots that I can’t make in my rec league so they must be horrible shots!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I told my brain that it should use this emotional high as fuel to study for finals. But the brain’s not buying it.
What?!!! I though Kyrie was out forever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
THANK GOD We’re getting Kyrie back. I’m HAPPY to be completely wrong on this.
PHEW! AND I’m recapping tomorrow. Maybe there will be some positivity after all.
SOURCE:
Chris Sheridan reports Kyrie is cleared for practice, and should play the Lakers Tuesday!!!! HE’S HOOOME
Paying Kevin Martin $12+ mil for 3 years makes the opposite of sense.
Nah
I don’t want Kevin Martin. And yeah we are going to have to go above market value to get someone good. I’m curious on who the #1 guy that Nate is hinting about.
And yeah, time to rename the posts. James Harden isn’t cumming here.
Isaac –
Good points. And like I’ve been saying for a while, we need a spot up jump shooter more than a guy who gets to the rim – we supposedly have two of those in Kyrie and Dion.
Maybe Kevin Martin makes sense? Would you guys pay him 12-15 mil a year for 3 years? That’s way above market value, but that’s probably what it takes…
http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Andre%20Iguodala
He takes as many shots from 16-23 feet as he does at the rim, and converts a depressing 32%. All his advanced stats have been falling over the last 3 years as well. This isn’t a one down year thing – I think he’s a phenomenal player that doesn’t have the diversity of scoring threats to truly succeed in that area. I’m unsure as to how good his defense is – so much of what we hear is reputation based, and I’m no NBA scout.
I used to love Iguodala, but watching a lot of the Denver games on LP this season he’s really frustrated me. He is so athletic, get’s to the hoop pretty easily, but insists on taking bad jumpers all game long. That propensity is only going to get worse with age as well. People used to get on Lebron’s back about not learning a post game, they need to do the same with Iggy. My favorite choice for our situation of all those players is Tiago Splitter. Most efficient for probably the best value, and I feel like a Splitter +… Read more »
Gee is a VERY poor man’s Iguodala. Gee, at his best = Iguodala at his worst. I love Gee, but lets not overrate his value. He’s a bench guy, for all intents and purposes.
Post scoring is a need, but the league is moving away from traditional post threats as a consistent attack – I’d rather get a lower level post scorer and spend on an elite swing defender who can also score consistently. Remember, our weakest position, in terms of production, is the SF position. Don’t you think Iggy would cure that?
Mallory – I like Iguodala too but I isn’t he a little redundant with Gee? I mean Gee is sort of a poor man’s Iguodala. I think this team’s biggest need is post scoring.
Iguodala is a dream. What does this team need? A SF. What is our biggest weakness? Defense. He’s having an off year, but the guy is a baller. Put him on this team and I think he thrives.
I know it’s a long way off, but I can’t help but dream about Kevin Love. He has an opt out of his contract in 2015.
@Spots/Mike – yes the Cavs need to start talking to Greg Oden. Get him practicing at Cleveland Clinic courts. Get some doctors looking at him. They repaired Zydrunas – what’s the harm trying to see if Oden has an NBA future?
Splitter and Andy would be cool. Overall, I don’t like any of these guys for as much as they are going to command. Even the ones I used to love (Igudala/Millsap) are starting to get up there in years.
At this point the only thing I would give Greg Oden is a mostly nonguaranteed contract and an invite to camp. Something like they gave Kevin Jones and Micheal Eric, but possibly with a bit more money.
Greg Oden has apparently mentioned a return to the NBA next season. Are we interested in taking a shot on him?
I really enjoyed this post, and agree with your basic principles if not all of your player choices. My biggest concern with Evans is whether or not he is big enough to play the three. Assuming the Cavs are committed to Dion starting at shooting guard, you would want Tyreke to play small forward. I think that would give the Cavs an interesting offense but a suspect defense. I wonder if Chandler Parsons (listed as restricted at Hoopsworld) would be a better fit.
Evans really intrigues me. I think the Kings are a bunch of puzzle pieces from different puzzles. From the terrible ownership situation with the Maloof’s, the impending relocation, and the lack of chemistry I think multiple players could be terrific elsewhere. Evans at the three would make for an athletic and dynamic wings and backcourt of three guys who can handle the ball, create and distribute. The passing ability of KI, StW, Evans and Andy would be compelling. I want a front court above the rim player like Josh Smith. A guy who can catch oops from Kyrie and Dion… Read more »
I agree, none of the top free agents this year are really “game changers” plus we have to save money for when LeBron comes back.