“It’s early.” Repeat that 3x. Of course with time: trends, ranks, and outliers become less noisy and more meaningful. Trends level off, ranks become more stable between games, and outliers become more impressive. Here’s a few that I researched after a little quiet reflection.
Trending: UPWARD.
Omri Casspi and positive adverbs can stand to be in the same room with each other lately. Now, I can only count on one hand the number of times I have been forced to pay attention to Omri Casspi on a basketball court since Kyrie Irving had his suit drycleaned. However, almost every one of those times I saw something positive. He looks like a walk-on playing defense – earning every minute he gets. (It’s quaint) He seems to be a three point threat, even though a few of the shots have the body language of “this could be my last chance – better make it count”. You could make the case that Casspi’s NBA career has been in decline since he arrived on the scene. But this year might be different. Casspi’s production in general seems to be trending back up. Specifically his 3PFG% the last 11 games looks like this.
a healthy 18/36 on the year
If he can keep his 3PFG% above even 40% that would be an asset for this shooting-deficient team (assuming he gets more playing time – something that many on this blog have advocated). The Cavaliers have no shortage of 3 point gunners, but are lacking in marksmen (at least so far this year). We’ll check back with Casspi at a later date. There are some harbingers that he’s on the up and up.
"I don't always google my name, but when I do, I make sure safesearch is on." - CJ MILES the most interesting man on the Cavs bench
Ranks: Dead last, 6th Worst
Is there anything more irritating than a guy shooting contested jump shots off the dribble and missing? Repeatedly. With no course correction. This irritant alienated one fan so much that he blessed the world with this url: http://heylarryhughespleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com/.
I think we need to find that guy and ask him to author:
http://heycjmilespleasetrysomethingdifferentperhapsspottingupforthreeortryingtodrawfouls.com/.
I had high hopes for CJ Miles. At least until my buddy Wes (@WesEarick) prophesied to me that CJ Miles would be the Cavs 2nd leading scorer. Given my history debating Wes on NBA topics I had this premonition that CJ Miles was headed for a Lamar Odom-like deterioration. (He once said Wilson Chandler was a future MVP) I was looking over Miles’ season stats and one thing that I found particularly jaw-dropping was his 4 FTA to 89 FGA. Wasn’t this guy supposed to be a pseudo-slasher? I swear I’ve seen a youtube video of him dunking OVER people. At the very least, he seems to have some competency putting his head down and driving. So what the heck? As it turns out, Miles career FTA to FGA is around .2, meaning, he shoots 1 free throw for every 5 shots. For comparison’s sake – Alonzo Gee’s career FTA:FGA ratio is .37, almost twice as high. So clearly, getting to the rack and drawing a whistle isn’t his strong suit. For the irrationally-optimistic Cavs fans out there I guess we could argue that “CJ Miles just hates flopping” or something. But 4 for 89? That’s GOT to be the worst mark in the league right? Actually no, that record belongs to San Antonio’s Matt Bonner who has yet to attempt a freebie despite 47 FGA. Once I saw this I was challenged, as Matt Bonner can be pretty valuable. But my preconception was/is that having a respectable FTA:FGA ratio is a sign of a good player, especially for a wing. It’s a little more complicated than that, but so far this year, if an NBA player had a higher than league average FTA:FGA ratio his Win Share/48 minutes would also be higher than average. Obviously the corollary is that owning a less than league average FTA:FGA ratio would have a lower than league average WS/48. There’s no succinct (sorry RickOH) way to describe the relationship between FTA:FGA and WS/48. But I think the visualization is kinda neat. So I put one together here:
[ https://docs.google.com/open?id=0Bxo35h7IHewyNGhXY1poeVhYMUk ]
Click on the 100% thing to blow it up and then use the arrow keys to scroll along. The dotted red line is the league average WS/48, and the vertical red arrow is the range. The dotted blue line is the league average for FTA:FGA and the vertical blue line is the range (which is quite more dynamic). [A quick note on everything to do with league related statistics: I filter out all players with less than 150 minutes at this juncture.] Draw your own conclusions from the data, but, on average, it doesn’t pay to have a very low FTA:FGA ratio unless you are an elite spot up shooter or have some other ways to contribute. So CJ Miles is the worst in the league in WS/48 and 6th worst in FTA:FGA. I think he needs to drastically change both of those ranks immediately. Actually I think he needs to draw some fouls and hit a few quiet set shots from the stripe to calm the heck down. Getting to the rim should could open things up for him a bit more – making him harder to defend. He needs to change SOMETHING especially if Wes’s “2nd leading scorer” prediction has any hope of materializing. (Although that would be all the proof you need that the Mayans were, in fact, right).
From Oct 30th chat
Outliers: Tristan Thompson’s Block Party
Yes, this title in intended to inflame the masses. Honestly, it’s the Cavs entire team that is partying, it just seems wrong to have it anywhere other that TT’s house. I’ve never seen anything quite like this. I knew the Cavs were getting stuffed at the rim a lot. But I had no idea how prolific they are at it. I was also aware that TT’s blocks (the ones where he blocks the OTHER guy) were down from last year. Digging a little deeper, I learned that the Cavs are worst in the NBA in getting blocked (not completely surprised) but also worst in the league at wagging the finger (a little surprised). The Cavs block differential? That is our outlier of the day – and it. is. BREATHTAKING. For the full effect, click on the image, and then click on it again to get the full screen.
The Cavs block differential (-99) is more than DOUBLE the next worst team – Golden State(-48), who has played without Andrew Bogut for all but 73 minutes this season. Let that sink in. I think we can safely tar and feather the next person that utters something along the lines of “Tristan Thompson can be our Serge Ibaka”.
Can’t take the criticism huh?
Really
I’m just asking why the authors of the blog are so sure that the Cavs suck while most fans and commenters think that generally things are going OK. There is no other Cavs blog that has been nearly as negative as this one. Perhaps, instead of yelling about me commenting (on your blog, you should be happy for the traffic) you should reevaluate how you look at the team.
@Scuzz – yes, please do check it out and let me know what you think. http://www.cavstheblog.com/?p=14046 I didn’t so much predict when the Cavs would be ready to contend as I did argue that Varejao isn’t showing any typical signs associated with the NBA’s rapid after 30 decline. His entire career seems time shifted by about 4 years. His start, his contracts, and now he’s maybe a year into his prime at age 30, not age 26. So I have no reason to believe that he’s going to just be a shell of his former self before he puts up a season or two of gradual depreciation – which I would argue is certainly valuable enough to be a starter on a contending team. Also, as Nathan point out in his comment in my post – every championship team since 1988 has had an over-30 starter.
Cols – I’m not going through this with you again. Much of the time you are not constructively criticizing anyone. You are just disagreeing and then lamenting it and then demanding we stop having our opinions or Mallory go away. For a while it was irritating but now it’s actually comical. Maybe you can take my “criticism” and limit your “I can’t stand these writers” remarks. I think some non-writers have suggested it to you as well. Feel free to disagree with anything that is posted – that’s why we have a comment section. When half of the comments are you making some melodramatic claim about how grumpy we all are – it’s distracting from the things that we actually want to talk about. Like, for example, this actual post. So I’ll try again – what do you think of CJ Miles FTA:FGA ratio? Any thoughts on that in general? Did you draw conclusions from the data that I didn’t mention?
I agree Cols, I skip over all MF’s articles and comments…If I didn’t I would have stopped reading this blog a long time ago..
@Tom,
Yeah, I agree the coddling was inconsequential. I just think it’s easier to put the blame on Lebron because he was immature and not particularly likeable. But the thing to keep in mind was that he was just a kid. Sure he was an adult for the decision (so stupid I hate even calling it that) but the organization set things in motion out of fear of an 18 year old. I don’t mind the bending over backwards for him, that’s fine; it’s just unfortunate that it extended to making roster changes that damaged the foundation that needed to be built for long term success.
And believe me, my heart’s screaming at Lebron for abandoning us, but my brain says there’s a lot more blame to go around.
@Brian – yep – we are of the same thought. I will say (and I think I am alone on this one) that Gilbert made a poor long term decision when he demanded Mike Brown be fired and immediately tried to find a coach LeBron would have liked. I mean, we were THIS CLOSE to having Tom Izzo or someone totally unproven be the next coach of the franchise. I’m not going to cast my judgement on Byron Scott yet, but if you isolate out everything LeBron-related, I think Mike Brown and Danny Ferry are better suited to run an NBA team than Byron Scott and Chris Grant. And we can disagree all day long whether or not that is true (and we won’t know for sure for some time) but what we can’t really argue is that those decisions were knee-jerk reactions – even if they were/are justifiable, and were not done with “long-term draft pick stocking” in mind. They were done in hopes LeBron would resign. I’m interesting in watching how patient Gilbert will be the next 1-2 years.
I’m unsure of Byron Scott. But I think it’s safe to say that Mike Brown at this point is a failure. He couldn’t figure out the NBA playoffs when they had LeBron and then he completely blew it in LA when he had a chance to redeem himself.
Ferry seems like a good executive, but so does Chris Grant. Might be a wash between those two guys.
I’m guessing that Byron Scott won’t be around for too long, maybe one more year after this?
So far I’d say that Gilbert has been extremely patient. While some fans who write for a blog wished that they would have gone out and gotten a bunch of free agents to play this year so they would maybe make the playoffs, they instead played it smart.
This way once they figure out where they need help over the next few years they have plenty of cap room to sign guys.
I was worried that Gilbert was going to go crazy in FA after LeBron left and he wrote that nutty letter. But he’s been remarkably sane. The nice thing about having him as an owner is that you feel like the Cavs aren’t the average small market NBA team.
Cols – Mike Brown won 60 games in back to back season with a (now) supposedly crap roster. He went 8-0 in the playoffs and won every game by double digits and then the Magic caught fire. You know what that sounds exactly like? The Spurs last season. Going gangbusters on everyone until Serge Ibaka went 47 for 47 on 20 foot jumpers and the Thunder played so out of their minds I (as well as a bunch of others – including Bill Simmons and John Hollinger) thought the Spurs were going to win the TITLE. And they didn’t even get to the finals. Would you say “Greg Popovich couldn’t figure out the NBA playoffs”?
So Cols, I took a step back and tried my best to evaluate your “criticism” of this blog. I really did. Here’s what I’ve noticed today.
[To Mallory] “I think you should lose your writing license for a little bit.” – Cols
“I think that Mallory’s response is exactly why people are frustrated with this blog.” – Cols
“Do you want me to start every statement with “we’re young and we’re getting better, but…”? I can, if that’ll help. For better or worse, we’re not very good now.” – Mallory
“Really I’m just asking why the authors of the blog are so sure that the Cavs suck while most fans and commenters think that generally things are going OK.” -Cols
“I’m not sure if anyone else posted this or not, but SI had an interesting article on Varejao and his trade value.” -Scuzz
[From Article Scuzz linked to] “…in compensating for his teammates’ weaknesses all over the floor, Varejao makes one of the worst rosters in the NBA look fairly passable at times.” -Ben Golliver and Rob Mahoney Sports Illustrated
“Scuzz Good article, Thanks!” -Cols
Let’s zoom in a bit:
“WEAKNESSES ALL OVER THE FLOOR…..one of the WORST ROSTERS IN THE NBA.”-Not Mallory
“Good article, Thanks!”-Cols
@Cols – The world must look very simple to you. Dion is incredible, Mallory is evil, Mike Brown is a failure… I can’t even begin to be bothered with the first two topics, I think you’ve shown plenty that you are incapable of rational thought, but I’m not sure I can let the Mike Brown comment stand: In 5 years of coaching, he took us to the NBA f*king finals, which is damned weird for someone who “couldn’t figure out the playoffs”, the conference finals once, and the conference semi’s 3 times. That’s the worst he ever did: second round of the playoffs. His first season in LA he took a team that hadn’t competed well even with Phil Jackson, and got them to the Western Conf. Semi’s – the Thunder and the Spurs were clearly more talented, it wasn’t about Brown’s coaching at that point. And then he got fired 5 games into a season with a majorly overhauled team. You’ll notice D’antoni is 2-2 as head coach, as well, and the Lakers look flawed and old.
@Tom
I like Mike Brown but I’m not crying over it because Byron Scott seems like the perfect choice to be coaching the tandem of Irving and Waiters. I think we’ll be a pretty fun team to watch. I do worry about Dion getting burned out on Scott eventually.
As for Ferry vs Grant, pretty impossible to say as we’ve never seen Danny draft in the lottery and probably won’t any time soon. Grant was kind of his protege though right? I do think he’s inherited Ferry’s patience/discipline and comes up with beneficial trades. He’s done a good job so far not signing long contracts to under performing players. Grant’s supposed to be an advanced stat nerd, and while I don’t dig around in those numbers, I am intrigued at where this is going. (Hopefully I won’t be on here in five years complaining about how Gilbert let him take his sweet ass time and tried to build through the draft.)
@Brian – yeah, Grant is Ferry’s protege, in fact, that is the only reason I’m comfortable with him right now. On Brown/Scott – I you are absolutely right Byron is preferable to Brown on Irving and Waiter’s development.
I did not realize that people loved Mike Brown so much.
He had a team with LeBron and a team with Kobe. Both teams ended up firing him. Sounds like he’s a bit overrated here.
Tom, you are basically unable to take criticism, arevdeendivecabd thin-skinned and not a very effective debater. This post however, was a good one. Kudos where deserved.
I don’t know why you insist in pretending this blog, save for Hentrick, is almost completely skewed towards the negative. I would like to see Kevin or someone who has time analyze the blog to determine the level of negativity. It is unquestionably higher than say, Fear The Sword or WFNY, and certainly no more “smarter” than those blogs. Your protests to the contrary reek of a Fox News-level delusion, Tom…
Then go read Fear The Sword, Kj. As for Cols714, I happen to be on your side in one way. I, too, think that Mallory is Satan incarnate! Let’s burn ‘im.
Fear the Sword had a hilarious article earlier this week that was i’m assuming born out of the twitter campaign #disservicetofans that I believe @conradkaczmarek started on Sunday night (i partook in the pile on).
It’s a great article and I wish I would have thought of the idea for the post first. Here’s the ending commentary:
“I’m sure I’ve either forgotten or repressed like 80 other terrible Cavalier moments”
Fear the Sword has been pretty great lately.
I’ve noticed a lot more negativity in the comments section than in the articles.
Yeah, that’d be cool if Kevin analyzed this blog’s level of negativity instead of writing about basketball. Cavs: The Blog should look inward. More navel gazing. More like livejournal.
Personally, I don’t think a shell-shocked veteran club that got spanked by double digits nightly is even in the same zip code quality-wise with a team featuring NBA toddlers that at one point sported the top starting rotation +/- in the league…a team that features the top scoring frontcourt in the league, a Rook/Soph combo no less…a team that could have two players deserving an All-Star nod…all with the leagues lowest payroll.
After such a brutal start given the schedule and injury issues, a negative outlook based strictly on W/L is completely out of context, IMO. If this squad gets healthy and the schedule evens out a bit, Im confident we’ll see plenty of open-mouthed shock from the Negative Nellies.
I just read most of these comments and I sincerely wish I wouldn’t have wasted my time. Cols, just bite your tongue or don’t read it man. this blog, comments included, should be about basketball and not about this blog. Argue with Mallory about things like him not wanting to trade a player who was leaving anyways because he wanted a starting job for the 24th pick in the draft last year instead of how pessimistic perceive his comments to be
@ Tom Pestak, good work!
I agree with the person who mentioned the picture of TT in the OP. Part of the reason why Hollinger liked TT so much was his ability to draw fouls. I’m too lazy to look up the stats, but I’m guessing his FTA/FGA has significantly fallen since his time at Texas.
Backcourt, not frontcourt.
@Richard – TT’s FTA:FGA
College = .83
Rookie = .43
This Year = .34
I’ve never commented before, but I think there’s a silent majority of readers who agree with Richard. I’m not usually a fan of the like/dislike button on comment threads, but for the past few weeks I’ve wished it was an option.