After dominating the Nets last night, Anderson Varejao is once again on the trading block. Well not exactly, but there has been and continues to be a sizable collection of Cavs fans that wish it were so. All arguments go something like this: “Varejao isn’t getting any younger, he’s reckless and injury prone and is going to be a shell of his former self in 1-2 years when Kyrie/Dion/TT and company will be getting SERIOUS buckets (and please God some stops), @CavsDan will be emptying his wallet, and AC/Fred and crew will be back to calling playoff games. The future UncleDrew Army has no room for a grizzly ol veteran like Varejao and therefore the Cavs should trade him now while he’s playing like a top 3 center in the NBA and get something back.” yes, endquote
There are many that oppose this line of thinking, and some that follow the logic but just can’t bear to see a Cavs team without the Wild Thing and would rather he finish his career where he started it – maybe even with a large wig enshrined in the rafters. There’s a twitter poll up right now and the popular vote is almost as close as that nauseating election we somehow lived through. I guess that makes me a SuperPac. Time to move the needle. Let’s start with some “ fact-checking” since that’s all the rage. Or maybe a better phrase would be “exposing some myths”.
Myth1: Anderson Varejao is old. This should really read “Anderson Varejao is quickly becoming too old to be an effective NBA basketball player.” I rate this claim as Mostly False. Yes, there are studies showing that around age 30 basketball players start to head off into the sunset. And Andy just celebrated his 30th bday. But there are many interesting bits of information about Anderson Varejao that suggest he will buck this trend. Let’s start with the basics. Age matters, but so does mileage. So here’s your first trivia question. Which of the following players has logged the least NBA minutes? Anderson Varejao, Rudy Gay, Rajon Rondo, or Kevin Durant? Well if I created the question, you should be able to figure out the answer. So just let that sink in. Here’s the proof:
That was about as cut and dry objective as it gets. Easy stuff. So let’s wade into some murky waters. I’m no NBA scout – but even a dedicated fan can make basic observations about the game. What diminishes with age that would hurt an NBA player’s production? Quickness, leaping ability, stamina, and the body’s resiliency. A relatively recent obsession for “outside the box” training and nutrition have somewhat improved upon the resiliency problem. Stamina is managed with minutes, practice-waivers, and rest (Spurs have this perfected). So the main diminishing traits brought on by Father Time are loss of quickness and no more dunk contests. A lot of Cavs fans feel like they remember watching Shawn Kemp’s career die in front of them. It’s true in some ways, he was a shell of his Seattle self, but a 30-year old Kemp was still a warm body. Check out 31-year-old Kemp that the Trail Blazers inherited. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kempsh01/gamelog/2001/ But contrast that high-flying style, totally dependent on elite quickness and dominant athleticism, with Varejao’s game…
It’s mostly highly-skilled below-the-rim finishes around the hoop, an arsenal of off-balance hooks and up and under moves, and the occasional wide-open 15-foot jumper. Almost all of his baskets are assisted or off offensive rebounds meaning he doesn’t need to blow by a defender to create space for a shot. As a big man, he doesn’t grind away on the block in the low-post, it’s all backdoor cuts and constant movement. On the defensive end he makes a living outworking the competition, and it helps that he has good defensive instincts, a 7-foot wingspan, and there is no one better in the league at defensive position for taking charges, contesting, or boxing out. It’s pretty obvious that his success is rooted in skill (particularly his touch), will, size, and a very high bball IQ. None of these are going anywhere. There’s another player from another era with the same description, and wouldn’t you know it, he’s the first guy on this list! That’s right, Dennis Rodman. Comparing The Worm and the Wild Thing is pretty fascinating. Here’s a nice little career-comparing chart.
Rodman turned 30 in 91-92. That’s 3 whole years before he was the starting PF on the 2nd 3-peat Bulls. Food for thought. While we’re weighing the likelihood that Andy is moments away from slowing down and falling off the NBA’s age cliff, let’s take a look at a few Andy-specific trends. Here’s a chart showing his FT% as a function of age.
He’s gradually improved almost every year. This means a lot. He’s worked on his game to eliminate a liability. Not available in chart form is that he’s become a devastating pick and roll partner which is exactly what someone like Kyrie Irving needs. What I found most interesting, however, was that as his usage has increased, so has his efficiency. He spent many years living the backup role and it may have been easy to cast him as an “energy guy”. He’s spent the last 2 years playing starters minutes against starters and the results have been nothing short of all-star worthy recognition. Here’s a chart showing seasons sorted by usage and the accompanying player efficiency.
There’s really nothing to suggest that he’s about to start trending downward. If anything, his role has increased, he has a devastating PnR partner feeding him the ball in good position, and he’s making a living off of putting some fancy english on below-the-rim finishes. As of yesterday, he was 5th in the entire NBA in estimated wins added – he’s not even pumping the brakes. Now’s a good time to remind everyone that mostly-offensive stats like PER really do not capture all of Varejao’s value at the defensive end.
Myth2: Anderson Varejao is reckless and injury prone. I rate this as partially true, but the “Trade Andy” proponents act like he is some kind of injury outlier. Every team has injuries, and every player will go through various debilitating injuries throughout his career. In the case of Varejao, he does have a well-documented injury history. But the last one was a total fluke. Nothing about his style of play made someone go Tonya Harding bodyguard on his wrist during a routine rebound. Guys that are “injury prone” are guys with degenerative bodies. Think of Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, or even Z before Cleveland doctors fixed him – guys that have constant, nagging issues. (you might even put Boobie Gibson and all his high-ankle sprains into that group) Varejao’s injuries range from broken wrist to dislocated shoulder to broken cheekbone. Maybe his style has something to do with it (flying into the stands and diving on the floor) but in some of these cases clearly there is some bad luck involved. If he was dealing with a nagging knee or back injury every 6 months it’d be different story. Clearly, these injuries haven’t affected his play at all. When he’s out he’s out, when he’s in he’s getting better every day, playing more minutes and at a higher usage rate with the only side effect being a spike in PER as it were. This is not to say he won’t continue to suffer injuries, but what you really want to gauge is how they are affecting his play when he IS playing. And anyway, if he gets bed-ridden with poison ivy this year or next for a few weeks at the end of the season because of his “style” it’s just good tanking at that point, right? (Don’t think for one second I haven’t had to deal with that lazy excuse for why paying the Lakers to take Ramon Sessions was “good value”) [Don't respond to that in the comments - it's been covered and we all love future MVP Tyler Zeller, myself included]
Myth3: He’s more valuable as a trade asset than a future asset. PANTS ON FIRE FALSE! Andy is never going to net anything close to equal value in a trade and it’s because of perception, his role on the Cavs, his contract, and his potential suitors. Let’s just establish a basic common sense principle. If you own something that is ridiculously UNDERRATED you don’t want to SELL that. Andy is ridiculously underrated. In addition, the void he fills on the Cavs is immense. Marcin Gortat is a lot more valuable on the Suns that he was on the Magic. Can you even imagine the Cavaliers right now not only without their best player but splitting 96 minutes between Zeller/TT/Samuels? I’d be orders of magnitude worse than watching the backup PG torch-passing from Ramon Sessions to Donald Sloan. Here’s another way of thinking about it: if the Cavs adding Chris Paul to their current roster it would add less value than the difference between trading and keeping Varejao. The Cavs have no one even close to being able to replicate Andy’s skills/role on the team. Also, there is no real match between teams that need him and teams that can give the Cavs an attractive package. The Cavs SHOULD want a high round draft pick (top 15) and a legitimate NBA starter AT LEAST. Not only would zero GMs offer that if they COULD, but there are no good teams with the pick and no bad teams that would give up the young starter. Then there’s the issue of his contract. It’s almost a joke when you look at how little Andy makes for an established NBA Center. Roy Hibbert just landed a max contract. Varejao makes less than HALF that. Finally, it seems his reputation is forever stuck in “irritating flopper that lived off LeBron” (which is a total farce and shame) and NBA Coaches/GMs are as subject to irrational narratives as fans. This would further inhibit anything remotely approaching fair value.
To prove my point, consider two NBA players born just 4 days apart. Both have had at least 3 seasons where they missed more than 30 games. Their career player efficiency ratings differ by ½ of 1 point. Their career Offensive and Defensive Ratings are: [115,102] and [115,101]. Their Win Share per 48min are .153 and .151. Their career usage ratings are 14.0 and 13.9. (Is this getting crazy?!) They’ve both played between 1600 and 1700 playoff minutes with Playoff PERs of 13.4 and 13.5. They’ve both played center with an elite PnR point guard and coincidentally Byron Scott as head coach. (now you got it) Both players have current contracts that extend until 2015. One player has a max deal and would never EVER EVER be traded just because his “value is high”, or because he has a history of injuries, or because he was born during the first term of the Reagan presidency. That player is Tyson Chandler – NBA Champion X-FACTOR and absolutely critical to the New York Knicks playoff aspirations. And the other guy is (surprise) Anderson Varejao – the most criminally under-appreciated player in the National Basketball Association and a guy many Cavs fans wish management would dangle for little more than a 1st round draft pick! Grab an extinguisher and put your pants out!
Also, if we could get Peyton Hillis on the cover of Madden we can certainly get Varejao into the All-Star Game. Follow the Leader
Another great post. Cavs The Blog on form.
There’s no need to trade Andy unless something AMAZING is coming back. And I can’t see where that’s going to come from. I think Chris Grant knows this. No need to throw the baby out with the bathwater as they say.
Well done. A smart GM would have already stolen him from us if we weren’t lucky enough to have Ferry and then Grant. They aren’t about to get killed on a trade for a player as incredibly valuable as Andy. Andy is a basketball fan’s dream, (assuming said basketball fan actually understands basketball). Yes, I am blatantly stating that if you think we should trade Andy for anything that we would actually be able to get, (well outlined above) you don’t really know the game.
Was this blog around when the Bobcats signed him to an offer sheet years ago? I seem to remember some fans saying that we were paying far too much for Andy at the time. It would be an interesting homage to him if someone had some links to stories about him back then.
I remember when he signed that contract. Apparently the Cavs were being mugged overpaying for a such role player.
The critics were out in force.
Yeah, I’m in the same camp. They should trade Boobie and/or Walton this season. I think some of the chatter you’re hearing is from Cavs fans who frequent the internet. Talk to the average Cavs fan and I think they’d go crazy if you talked about trading. On top of his popularity, it’s also incredibly valuable having an older veteran on a playoff team. Look at Nick Collison on the Thunder or, even better, Z on the LeBron Era Cavs. Hopefully Chris Grant sees the incredible value Andy brings to the team and keeps him around.
Excellent post, he is as you put it “the most criminally under-appreciated player in the National Basketball Association”. If you don’t watch Cavs games night in and night out you just can’t appreciate how many points Andy himself shaves off the differential. I’d say hes worth about 8-10 pt difference on the scoreboard every night.
Thanks Tom. Great post. Love the Rodman comparison, bringing up the Minutes played, the injuries being isolated incidents, and the fact that what he’s good at for the most part doesn’t diminish with age nearly as fast, and your analysis of the market for him.
To all you pro-traders, what say you now? And what sort of package would you take for Andy that is realistic?
Tyson Chandler and Varejao are not comparable players. Their career averages are misleading as
Chandler entered the league 3 years younger and put up 3 below average seasons (they are his worst 3 seasons by WS/48). Remove them and you see a significant gap between the two players. Secondly Chandler will not be traded because he is on the Knicks because they are in win now mode, not win a little bit from now mode. Thirdly Chandler is on his 5th team in the league and has only been on the Knicks for slightly more than 1 season. He was let go by the Mavs after he was instrumental in their championship run, so yest people do talk about players like Chandler moving on to different teams.
That comparison is not nearly as ridiculous as the Rodman comp though. Rodman was DPOY TWICE before he landed in Chi, lead the league in o-reb % twice before he was 30 (and total reb % once) and is a first ballot HOFer. Simply finding similar words to describe the two is to do an injustice to a slam dunk first ballot HOF talent when discussing a guy who hasn’t made a single all-star team in 9 years underrated or not. Rodman also saw his offensive performance plummet with Chi in his early 30s. His best season after he joined the Bulls he has a TS% of 0.501- but he had a 0.549 or better rate 7 of the 9 years prior.
LAstly the bit about Andy being undervalued is pretty irrelevant. If you don’t get a good offer then you don’t trade him, and it only takes 1 GM to properly value him to get a good offer. If Someone from the Thunder offers Perkins+Toronto’s lottery pick you start having the conversation about what it takes. If someone from the Thunder offers Perkins + the thunder’s 1st round pick you hang up and move elsewhere. Its pretty simple.
You hit on a great comparison with Collison, Jimbo. Collison is a very important part of what makes OKC so good, even with all their bigger name stars. His game is similar to what Varejao gives the Cavs. Right now Andy is the better player but if Andy starts to slow down in a couple of years it would be reasonable to expect him to be able to play to the level that Collison is currently at. With a reasonable contract, where is the downside in that?
The Cavs are loaded with draft picks right now but lack players. Over the next three years, they will probably have to trade picks away because they don’t want to bring in as many new players as they have picks. Does trading a very good player for more picks make sense in that scenario?
Unless someone makes them a ridiculous offer there is no way they should trade Varejao. Of course, if someone makes them an offer that they can’t refuse, even Irving is trade-able.
THIS IS THE GREATEST POST EVER.
@Tom – actually, if we are nitpicking, his first three years aren’t his worst 3 years in terms of WS/48. His 2008-2009 Campaign (age 26) was one of his worst 3. And you can always make excuses why a player had a less than average year. Andy’s worst year was during that drawn out contract dispute (PER:12). The Mavs let Chandler walk and it was the difference between a Title and a 1st round sweep. My point wasn’t that Chandler is worthy of a max contract or is some kind of franchise player – it was that no one in their right mind would treat him like a piece to be dangled for a middling 1st round pick (as many have advocated). I’m glad you brought up DPOY – that is subjective, and analysts pull their hair out every year watching who gets picked. Here’s what Hollinger had to say in 2010: http://espn.go.com/nba/dailydime/_/page/dime-100125/daily-dime “Varejao has always been among the game’s best frontcourt defenders, but have you seen the guy this season? He’s moved beyond the Raggedy Andy flopfest of recent years to become a court-roving defensive monster. The shift in the game toward stretch 4s and pick-and-roll guards has only increased his value, as his freakish mobility for his size makes him one of the few players capable of both defending the post and smothering quick guards on switches.” Other analysts have strongly advocated for Varejao getting DPOY votes. This tries into the reputation thing I mentioned. Is Rodman a first ballot hall-of-famer without those 5 championships? Because his overall value looks a lot like Varejao’s. Yes, he was unrivaled in terms of rebounding, but Varejao is a more efficient offensive player and does some other things better. The only way you can look at those composite stats and conclude that Rodman and Varejao aren’t even in the same plane of existence is by comically underrating Varejao’s defense and simultaneously using ‘accolades” as a comparison metric. Which is fine, that mindset is exactly what I am exposing.
I don’t know. As fans we generally overrate our own players. It happens in every sport to pretty much every fan base. I think that’s what’s happening here with Andy. I think right now Andy is having an awesome year. I also think that comparing him to Dennis Rodman is a bit much. I think Tom above has the right take.
He’s probably at peak value right now. If we are going to trade him, now would be the time. The thing is, the Cavs are not going to break the bank to sign him to a longer contract. Nor should they.
Tom above is the same Tom that wrote the article
Chris I think Cols is appealing to lowercase tom.
Yes, tom lowercase
Just to clarify, I’m not saying we should definitely trade him. I can really see it either way and think it’s a tough decision.
whether or not we should trade andy depends entirely on what we can get for him, which is unknown. and so without an offer on the table, it’s an impossible question.
The insane thing is that Andy has two more years at this contract. This, Kyrie, and Waiters’ low value contracts are why WIN NOW mode needs to start as soon as possible, late this year or 2013 (probably the latter). Getting maximum value out of Andy, TT, Kyrie, Zeller, and Waiters before their price goes way up allows us to overpay other guys for a couple years (front load contracts…) Who could we add this offseason, or before the deadline? Josh Smith? Andre Iguodala? O.J. Mayo? Corey Brewer? Shawn Marion? Marvin Williams? David West? Paul Millsap? Bynum? Al Jefferson?
There will be a ridiculous amount of quality free agents of every tier available next year. There will be all star quality players available at every position. Trading Andy makes no sense. NONE. And the minutes played analysis by Tom is beautiful. Andy is not going to break down in a year. He is still peaking… That core is going to make less than 24 million next year and the year after. Judicious spending this offseason will probably turn us into a Juggernaut in 2013.
I’m so schizophrenic about the Cavs this year. On one hand I love what I’m seeing from one of my all time favorite players, on another hand I hate the wait till later bench, on the third hand, I don’t want to sacrifice the future for an 8th playoff spot. And yes, I have three hands.
Nate
All of those make sense. I think the wisest path is the one we seemingly are on. Competitive this year but not really close to a playoff team, then really try to improve through FA in the summer of 2013.
I know Cols, but it can be painful in the short term.
Obviously if we get a good deal, then we trade Andy. I agree with lowercase tom and don’t think Rodman/Chandler comparisons are really relevant. Andy doesn’t have a lot of NBA minutes but he does play for his national team most off-seasons, that’s a lot of mileage that should be considered. Also, I think hustle/energy guys have a harder time with father time than ‘power’/position guys like Chandler.
I’m not in the camp of trading Andy, I think even 3-5 years from now when our core is starting to really peak and we’re ready to make a run, Andy can still contribute (although not at his current level). Thinking down the road, bench depth is still going to be important and I see Andy (if minutes, injury etc manage correctly) being a valued players. BUT, if we can get 2+ young assest now who will be peaking and potential starters 3-5 years from now, then that may be more valuable than Andy. OKC for example has PJ3, Lamb and Torontos pick, they could be ‘good’ trade partners that have the kind of talent that seems appealing and they have a need to be in a ‘win now’ mode. There are always 3 team deals being floated around as well, so you never know.
Bottom line, keep Andy understanding that his best days are current and expect some diminishing over the next 3-5 years. From a Cavs perspective, trading Andy now is about comparing the talent of what we give up to what we have in 3-5 years. From a trade partner, they’ll be looking at what they get now compared to what they give now. As with all trades, history is the what will tell you if it was good or bad.
I’m not a big fan of looking at mileage instead of age. It seems to me that most NBA decline not from overuse, but because as you get older you get less athletic (or whatever term you want to use).
there are a million variables that can determine how a player’s body holds up over time, including conditioning, nutrition, genetics, off-season regimen, injury history etc. major injuries to backs, knees and shoulders can accelerate the breakdown process. age, not minutes played, impacts one’s ability to heal and rehabilitate from injuries as well as it impacts cell growth.
with all due respect to the original poster, the reality is that nobody knows how long andy will be able to sustain this level of play, and no excel charts or player comparisons will help us to predict. There are far too many factors and unknowns. What we do know is that he’s playing the best ball of his career and he’s more valuable to the cavs on the court than as a trade chip.
Teddy – you just answered your own impossible question. Guys don’t play the best ball of their career and then suddenly drop off a cliff. There is generally a performance curve and in many cases, after a few years of a downward trend, there can be a massive dropoff. All indicators are that he’s on an upward trajectory, possibly entering his “prime” as some would classify it. Guys don’t go from prime to retired in 2 years. And if you read the wages of wins article, many of the people that peaked late had one thing in common – they weren’t given many minutes early in their careers.
i believe andy has actually been capable of playing at this level for some time, but due to limited usage (when everything ran thru lebron) and limited playing time from injuries (the last 2 seasons) so i challenge the idea that he is just now entering his prime regardless of what the box scores suggest.
generally speaking, players start to see significant decline around their early-mid 30′s, and big men decline faster. it’s likely that anderson is on a similar trajectory.
regardless, my position stands which is that if the right deal comes along, the cavs should trade him. but they should NOT trade him simply because he will no longer be an elite player when the cavs are ready to contend. i frankly think they will have a hard time getting good value back for him and while i like zeller, i think he is still quite a ways off from being ready to take over as the starter. time will tell, and the noise is only going to increase as we approach the trade deadline.
Every player is tradeable. Wlit, Kareem, Shaq, and even Lebron were traded. Way different circumstances than AV but he is tradeable. An asset is only an asset for so long before it becomes worthless. Andy does have fun hair, but it is better to trade a guy a year too early than a year too late.
I’m still open to them trading Andy if they can get equal value. What is equal value for Andy? Who would value Andy? He’d be perfect for any title contender. The Celtics have nothing to offer. The Clippers would be amazing with him, but what do they have to offer? I like Bledsoe but he’s due for a new contract and he will get paid by someone in restricted free agency. Owning a future unprotected Clippers pick isn’t a bad investment though. Miami would probably be the best team fit for him but Dan Gilbert would to stab himself with a butter knife ala Artie Lange before that happens. Grabbing that Raptors pick from the Thunder could be interesting but they’ve already fixed their books so I doubt they would be interested. I would be interested in Spurs deal based around Leonard and a future pick but I doubt they’d do the deal. They aren’t getting an established star for him. Young players that I’d want are MKG (not happening), Barnes (meh-Grant made the right decision in the draft) and Jonas (doubtful, but Colangelo could be entering survival mode). If the Bulls didn’t have Noah it could work. They do own the Bobcats 2016 unprotected first rounder. The 2014 draft should be the best wing draft since 2003, but no sure fire lotto teams are going to make that deal.
I really doubt they could get equal value. I wouldn’t trade him just to tank more. This team will lose enough games with Andy to be a lottery team this year and I’m honestly not that excited about this draft after the top 7 or so selections and I can see the Cavs finishing between the 5th and 10th worst record and they’ll have assets to move up a little if they really value a guy.
Every player is tradeable. Wlit, Kareem, Shaq, and Lebron were traded. Way different circumstances than AV but he is tradeable. Andy does have fun hair and hustle, but it is better to trade a guy a year too early than a year too late.
I’m still open to them trading Andy if they can get equal value. What is equal value for Andy? A young piece at a position of need or a good future lottery pick would be my asking price. A contender or a GM in survival mode are the only teams who will value him. He’d be perfect for any title contender. Miami would probably be the best team fit for him but Dan Gilbert would to stab himself with a butter knife ala Artie Lange before that happens. Most of the contenders have little to offer in terms of young players or primo lottery team draft picks. The Bulls and Thunder own interesting picks but I doubt either would deal for him.
Grant is listening to offers (as he should) but I really doubt they could get equal value and that’s the primary reason Andy won’t be traded. He won’t trade Andy purely for tanking purposes. The bench will take care of that. If Wiggins or Parker was in this draft I would consider it but they aren’t.
Year-NBA Champion’s Oldest Starter-Age
2012: Shane Battier ——————33
2011: Jason Kidd———————-38
2010: Derek Fisher——————–35
2009: Derek Fisher——————–34
2008: Ray Allen & Kevin Garnett —–32
2007: Bruce Bowen——————–35
2006: Shaquille O’Neal—————-34
2005: Bruce Bowen——————–33
2004: Gary Payton———————35
2003: David Robinson—————–37
2002: Rick Fox————————-32
2001: Horace Grant——————–35
2000: Ron Harper & A.C. Green——36
1999: Mario Elie———————–35
1998: MJ & Ron Harper—————34
1997: Dennis Rodman—————-35
1996: Dennis Rodman—————-34
1995: Hakeem & Clyde Drexler——32
1994: Hakeem & Otis Thorpe——–31
1993: Bill Cartwright——————-35
1992: Bill Cartwright——————-34
1991: Bill Cartwright——————-33
1990: James Edwards—————–34
1989: Bill Lambier———————31
1988: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar———40 (lol)
9 of the last 10 and 20 of the last 25 NBA champions have featured at least one starter aged 33 or older. Superstar or roleplayer, big or small, at least one player aged 33 or older plays an important part in almost every single championship. CHAMPIONSHIP TEAMS ARE NOT MADE BY TRADING AWAY VETERANS. I would like to copy/paste that last sentence ten times to let it sink in, but feared it would be too obnoxious. I don’t have statistical proof, but I’m willing to bet that even with Andy the Cavs starting lineup in 2014/15 would be younger than virtually any championship lineup ever. Do other teams frantically start trading away their best players as soon as they hit age 30? No? THEN WHY SHOULD WE???
Interesting note. It’s also interesting that Kareem (80), Garnett (91) and AC Green (84) combined missed only 255 games in 55 total seasons and Andy has missed 213 games in eight.
Also Durant (14), Gay (39 and Rondo (39) have missed 92 total games in 17 combined seasons not including this season.
On an unrelated note, Andy scored 35 points last nightcompared to Chandler’s career high is 27 points. He’s the second 30+ year old to put up 35 and 18 since the year 2000…the other being a fellow named “Shaquille O’Neal.”
Only five other 30 year olds have had as many points and rebounds in their first 7 games, and none of them shot over 60% from the field. Only 3 other bigs over 30 have had as many assists and as few turnovers in their first 7 games, and none of them came close to Andy’s scoring and rebounding numbers. From what I can tell, it looks like Andy hasn’t even peaked yet, let alone began to decline. I would like to respectfully pass on any trades unless we’re bringing back an all-star, because that’s what we’re giving up.
Good article. The point is not that Andy is untouchable or untradable, but that you most likely will not get equal value back right now. He can play roughly this well for another 3-5 years as he plays below the rim.
There is most likely very littlle upside in trading him. The plan should be to keep him, hope that Waiters and Zeller pan out and TT fills his role, bring in a FA. If that happens we can make some serious noise. We would of course need to get rid of this rec league bench but that goes without saying.
Re: the argument that we won’t be true contenders for 3-5 years after andy’s prime is over. Before we can truly contend we need some playoff experience. Kyrie and Dion need to see what playoff basketball is all about, they need to try and fail a bit in the playoffs before we’re contending for rings. That needs to start happening next year hopefully. We need andy to get us there so our young guys can get a taste of games that matter
Andy’s injury numbers are very inflated the last two years. I’m quite sure he could have come back last year if the team really wanted him to. Same thing the year before… And like Tom says, the injuries have been flukes. The wrist injury last year was not some reckless play, it was getting nailed on the arm by someone trying to dislodge a rebound.
As for the Olympics argument: “As far as actual productivity is concerned, the Olympics would appear to have something of a positive effect, if anything. The average NBA Olympian saw a positive percentage change in points, rebounds and assists, as well as minutes played, after the Olympics.” It’s quite clear that playing in the Olympics is good, and very little data correlates to increased injury propensity versus not playing. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1273990-how-olympics-participation-affects-nba-stars-productivity-and-longevity
Another interesting tidbit: If NBA bigs peak at 40% of minutes played (a stat thrown out there randomly on 40 minutes of hell), then Andy might be peaking now, or might not yet have reached his peak! And might have 60% of his minutes left to play! NBA minutes do cause wear and tear. Look how young Rashard Lewis was when he started to break down… Andy’s low minutes certainly help his cause. Age is a factor as well, but Andy is a “young 30.” But, new medical procedures are going to change the landscape for nba players very soon. Kobe’s season last year after platelet rich therapy is already pushing the therapy over the top. You are going to start seeing NBA players be more productive at older ages.
So say you could trade Andy for the best center in the league right now, would you do it?
No, you wouldn’t, because by the numbers, Andy is the BEST CENTER IN THE LEAGUE right now.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/c
Noah, Marc Gasol, Tim Duncan, all have a higher number of Wins Shares, but here’s the insane thing. Andy has 1.2 wins shares for a team that has only 2 wins.
Um
If you could trade Andy for Dwight Howard, who is considered by far to be the best center in the league, of course you do it.
@Cols – I’d trade Andy for Dwight Howard because he’s a generational superstar, but there would be some hand wringing. All this talk about Andy’s injuries, has anyone seen Dwight Howard? There’s a guy who struggles when he’s not healthy, and seems to be increasingly injury prone. Andrew Bynum is the same way. And while good Bynum is better than Varejao, bad Bynum is totally useless. As is injured Bynum. Nate is correct in that Varejao is the best center in the league right now. I doubt that will hold up as Dwight gets healthy but I wouldn’t be surprised if advanced stats could build a case that Varejao is a top 5 center in the NBA at the end of the season.
Tom Pestak
I realize that this is a stupid discussion because the Lakers are not going to trade Dwight Howard, but I don’t think there would be any hand wringing if he got traded for Howard.
Also, Contractually, Andy at 9 million per, or Dwight Howard at 16+ or whatever he’s going to make next year…?
I don’t think it makes sense to take a hard line here. There’s an argument to be made for keeping Andy, but really only in relation to specific proposals. It doesn’t help to just say, “we could never get equal value”, or, “no other team fully appreciates his ability”. We know he’s an awesome player. He’ll be good for a few more years. He’s a fan favorite. And you don’t make trades just to make trades. But…
This team needs a championship core. The argument that a lot of people are making — that he’ll still be a valuable role player a few years down the road, which I think is true — seems to be based on the ridiculous assumption that this team will be contending in a few years. In other words, that we have a championship core in place, or it’s inevitable we’ll get one. And that’s just fantasy. We have one keeper (Kyrie), one guy who looks promising (Dion), and that’s really it. If Tristan becomes an important player, I would consider that a nice surprise. Kyrie could make all-NBA 1st, but he’s not a potential MVP. That means, unless we hit the jackpot with a HOF big man next draft, we’ll need an especially deep base of young talent, something like Detroit leading up to ’04 (their oldest starter was 29 btw). Management has to do EVERYTHING they can to build a viable core. And if trading Andy can serve that goal, they have to do it. Any other approach is simply not being serious about winning championships.
Is he undervalued? Probably. But you can’t tell me that there isn’t a single team, especially among the contenders who might be interested, that understands what he would bring. San Antonio surely knows that Andy’s an all-star talent and a seamless fit. Would they trade Kawhi Leonard for a better shot at a title in 2013 and 2014? (In a deal like this http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=bpqgdyh ) There may not be many of them out there (it’s true that contenders don’t often have great rebuilding assets), but the team has to pursue possibilities like that and weigh the costs/benefits.
And let’s not forget what happened with our last franchise player. We had no shortage of serviceable veterans through some of his prime years. We need to be planning not just for the next 2-3 years, but for the years after Kyrie’s first extension, because odds are we won’t have won a championship by then. We want him to stick around long term, and have a contending team long term. Furthermore, the free agents we want to attract will be drawn more by a promising young nucleus than any good-but-aging veterans.
Also I agree with everyone who says that mileage is pretty meaningless. If that was significant then guys like Kobe, KG would be something like 45 in “basketball years.” Playing style, as well as recurring or unbalancing injuries are more useful considerations when looking at age and productivity, and I agree that Andy looks good by those measures.
I don’t think it makes sense to take a hard line here. There’s an argument to be made for keeping Andy, but really only in relation to specific proposals. It doesn’t help to just say, “we could never get equal value”, or, “no other team fully appreciates his ability”. We know he’s an awesome player. He’ll be good for a few more years. He’s a fan favorite. And you don’t make trades just to make trades. But…
This team needs a championship core. The argument that a lot of people are making — that he’ll still be a valuable role player a few years down the road, which I think is true — seems to be based on the ridiculous assumption that this team will be contending in a few years. In other words, that we have a championship core in place, or it’s inevitable we’ll get one. And that’s just fantasy. We have one keeper (Kyrie), one guy who looks promising (Dion), and that’s really it. If Tristan becomes an important player, I would consider that a nice surprise. Kyrie could make all-NBA 1st, but he’s not a potential MVP. That means, unless we hit the jackpot with a HOF big man next draft, we’ll need an especially deep base of young talent, something like Detroit leading up to ’04 (their oldest starter was 29 btw). Management has to do EVERYTHING they can to build a viable core. And if trading Andy can serve that goal, they have to do it. Any other approach is simply not being serious about winning championships.
Is he undervalued? Probably. But you can’t tell me that there isn’t a single team, especially among the contenders who might be interested, that understands what he would bring. San Antonio surely knows that Andy’s an all-star talent and a seamless fit. Would they trade Kawhi Leonard for a better shot at a title in 2013 and 2014? (In a deal like this http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=bpqgdyh ) There may not be many of them out there (it’s true that contenders don’t often have great rebuilding assets), but the team has to pursue possibilities like that and weigh the costs/benefits.
And let’s not forget what happened with our last franchise player. We had no shortage of serviceable veterans through some of his prime years. We need to be planning not just for the next 2-3 years, but for the years after Kyrie’s first extension, because odds are we won’t have won a championship by then. We want him to stick around long term, and have a contending team long term. Furthermore, the FA’s we want to attract will be drawn more by a promising young nucleus than any good-but-aging veterans.
Also I agree with everyone who says that mileage is pretty meaningless. If that was significant then guys like Kobe, KG would be something like 45 in “basketball years.” Playing style, as well as recurring or unbalancing injuries are more useful considerations when looking at age and productivity, and I agree that Andy looks good by those measures.
Robin – good stuff, thanks for contributing. I will say much of this post is push back against that original quoted argument. Basically, he’s not part of the future so any value added matters not – trade him for something. And almost no critical thought is given to the something. “A first round draft pick”. I wouldn’t have written this post if I saw tons of Cavs fans demanding that Chris Grant offer Andy for Dwight Howard or K Leonard, Tiago Splitter, and 2 picks. But when it’s like “a late 1st round pick that might end up a d-league wonder is better than Varejao in a couple seasons” i recoil in horror and add stuff like this to the internet.
No one has forgotten what happened with the last franchise player. Cavs were in win-now mode from 2005 on and sacrificed long term growth for short term hole-plugging. It didn’t work, but they had no choice – they did what they thought they needed to do to keep Lebron happy and the Cavs in the playoffs. The opposite of what Riley did during the prime of Wade’s career. The irony of it is a shame, but there is no way the 2009 and 2010 Cavs teams did not have enough talent to win NBA championships. They had enough athleticism and youth, and size, and veteran leadership. They ran into a buzzsaw, and then LeBron choked. Simple as that. I don’t think what you are saying really applies as a counterexample to keeping andy for a veteran presence. Especially since the Cavs have the youngest team in the league right now.
Tom
I don’t think the Cavs of 2009 and 2010 had the talent to win the championship. They had LeBron and some dudes who were OK. The teams that won the championship those years were way more talented than the Cavs. It wasn’t veteran leadership that they needed. They needed another guy who was really really good at basketball.
The minutes argument makes no sense. Varejao has less minutes because he’s missed time with injuries. Not playing because you are hurt is not a sign that you will have a longer career. In fact, the opposite is true. And while I won’t argue too much about him not being injury-prone, again, missing significant time due to injury is still a negative.
You make the assumption that everyone else in the league underrates Varejao like the fans do. I’d disagree, and besides it only takes one team to value him properly for a trade to happen. Also the Hibbert comparison is laughable, considering the points in each player’s career they received their deal. Same with the Rodman and Chandler comparison, but people have mentioned those already.
Here is the reason you trade Varejao (and the only reason). You don’t think the Cavs are going to truly be contenders (i.e. can win more than playoff series) before his contract is up in 2015, and you can get a decent player who will be under contract when you expect the Cavs to be legit contenders. Yes, it would suck to end up with a player who might never be as good as Varejao, but you need to leverage the assets you have into wins when Irving, Waiters and Thompson hit their prime, even if it means giving up a lot now.