Quick thing before we begin: I thought I made this clear in my announcement, but my job with NBC will have zero effect on Cavs: The Blog. Contractually, I’m able to do what I want, and I’ll still be recapping every game and posting at the same rate. The only possible change would be to Links To The Present, and even that isn’t definite yet. I’m going to try and make it work. There’s no way I would leave this blog in the middle of the season the Cavs are having right now. Now, onto the post.
One of the reasons that I felt it was in the Cavs’ best interest to make a move for a stretch four before the trade deadline is that JJ Hickson was playing some terrible basketball.
Hickson was inserted into the starting lineup after Anderson Varejao and Shaq failed to make it work as starters. Hickson had a few nice games, appeared able to make some of the mid-range jumpers that Varejao couldn’t hit, and became a fixture in the starting lineup. After his nice start, Hickson entered a very long stretch where he was not successful at making mid-range jumpers or playing basketball.
Hickson has a nice-looking stroke on his jumpers, but he is very bad at enticing his jump shots to go into the basket. Hickson is currently making 18.2% on his jumpers from 10-15 feet, and 23.0% of his jumpers from 16-23 feet. Those are not good numbers.
Going past the jumpers, Hickson’s effect on the starting lineup was absolutely toxic. I’ve mentioned this a few times in this space before, and I’ll mention it again; as of February 3rd, the Cavs’ starting lineup was one of their worst five-man units, which is almost unprecedented for a contending team.
Hickson’s effect on the Cavs’ defense has been particularly unfavorable. As of February 3rd, the Cavs were 7.6 points per 100 possessions worse defensively with Hickson on the floor. When Hickson sat, the Cavs had a defensive efficiency of 101.2, which would be the fifth-best mark in the league. When Hickson played, the Cavs’ defensive efficiency went to 108.8, which would make them 29th in the league defensively.
The Hickson effect is everywhere; last season, LeBron James had the third-highest defensive +/- in the league. This year, the Cavs are actually slightly worse defensively when LeBron is on the floor. The fact that LeBron plays most of his minutes with Hickson instead of when Hickson sits is perhaps the biggest reason for this.
One final thing to drive home the point that JJ Hickson has been really bad at defense: Take a look at how the Cavs play defense by quarter.
In the Fourth Quarter, the Cavs are the third-best defensive team in the league.
In the Third Quarter, the Cavs are the second-best defensive team in the league.
In the Second Quarter, the Cavs are the fifth-best defensive team in the league.
In the First Quarter, which is the only quarter that Hickson has typically seen extended minutes (he’s generally gotten a pretty quick hook in the third), the Cavs are the 15th-best defensive team in the league.
Before the Laker game, I was more than ready to see the Hickson experiment come to an end. Get someone in a trade to replace his minutes. Get Powe healthy. Heck, I would’ve been somewhat okay with replacing Hickson with Jawad Williams. Anything.
Then the Laker game happened, and Hicksomania began. I don’t know how to explain it, but JJ Hickson has looked like a new man. He’s catching passes he was fumbling before. He’s making smart cuts to get baskets instead of trying to face up from 15 and dribble-drive to the rim. He’s shown much more discipline about shooting mid-range jumpers. His rebounding has noticeably improved.
In the nine-game stretch starting with the Christmas Day game against the Lakers, Hickson has scored in double figures five times. He’s shot 58% over that stretch, and 77% from the line. Both of those figures represent significant improvements over his season averages. He’s also averaging 6.8 rebounds per game over this stretch, which is over two rebounds per game better than his season average. Turnovers have continued to be a problem, as JJ is still averaging slightly over a turnover per game despite his limited minutes.
JJ is simplifying his game, and it’s paying dividends. He’s starting to understand how to focus on doing what the team needs out of him rather than using his possessions to explore the limits of his talents. Shaq said JJ could be “The Next Cedric Ceballos” after the Minnesota game. It was an odd bit of praise, but on point. Shaq told JJ that he could be a successful player without needing anything run for him, and Hickson seems to have taken that advice to heart.
Best of all, Hickson seems to be making strides towards being a competent defensive player. He’s developing a nasty streak defensively, and seems to be playing both harder and smarter on the defensive end. The Cavs have been giving up an average of only 24 points in the first quarter of this stretch, which would be the 6th-best mark in the league.
Only the Lakers, Grizzlies, and Heat have scored more than 25 first-quarter points in the last nine games, and the Cavs have held their opponents to 20 points or less in three of the last five first quarters.
Danny Ferry has some tough decisions to make over the next nine days, and whether or not to give up on Hickson’s development is another one of those decisions. Hickson’s value is currently soaring, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to keep up this level of play for the rest of the season, let alone in the playoffs. On top of that, it’s hard to confidently project Hickson’s development as a shooter and playmaker when he’s shown very little aptitude in those areas so far.
On the other hand, Hickson is a tremendous athlete, is still very young, and is one of the few bigs in the Cavs rotation young enough to build around. And of course, the Cavs are absolutely firing on all cylinders with Hickson in the starting lineup. Add that to the possible complications in securing a buyout for Ilgauskas, and a Z/Hickson swap for a player like Jamison looks like much less of a slam dunk than it did a month ago.
JJ’s surge is probably one of the larger reasons that the Cavs have kept this winning streak up with Mike Brown third on the PG depth chart. (On second thought, somebody needs to photoshop this.) It’s likely that Jamison might not offer the Cavs a much better option right now (and certainly not 5-7 years from now).
I think if Hickson is indeed traded, there’s no way that he becomes the same player that he would with the Cavs, just due to the presence of Lebron as both passer and playmaker. Due to this, I’m not sure how much other teams might want him – and yet at the same time, Hickson becoming potentially a 20-10 guy for the Cavs is pretty scary both for us and for everybody else.
Is it possible, since JJ gets most of his minutes with Kazaam (~18% RR) as well as Lebron (~12% RR), as well as some guards (AP ~7% and Mo ~6%) with decent rebound rates, that his RR numbers are actually deflated? That lineup, with JJ’s 12% chipped in, puts a combined 55% rebound rate on the floor, and I feel like JJ might be able to put up a better RR on another team with a slightly smaller lineup. Can we go Wayne Winston style here and calculate adjusted RR? Just how much analysis is too much analysis? Why do I suddenly want some cornbread? (Certainly, from this angle, the 10 part of Ceballos’ 20/10 is not out of reach.)
Side note: I can’t find accurate total rebound rate statistics anywhere (not an Insider, and I don’t see them on 82games); half of these numbers are cobbled together from different sources. Any reliable sources that anybody knows of?
And another side note: As a music student and amateur popular music theorist, I’m pleasantly surprised to see the steadily increasing interest in popular music outside of the major labels. Progress! Or something.
Please don’t praise me for Phoenix. I like them and the song title was appropriate, but Phoenix is what people who don’t listen to indie music listen to so they can say they listen to indie music. I have no shame about the fact I am one of those people. But I don’t want to pretend I’m anything I’m not. Plus, TBBJ was onto Phoenix a while ago.
Progress, however minimal, is still progress. I’m not expecting something like Deerhunter or Dan Deacon.
Anyway, I’ll stop hijacking this place for musical purposes. JJ Hickson blah blah Cedric Jackson? Andre Iguodala blah blah adjusted usage rate!
Well I for one fully expect XX or Yeasayer in the next couple posts. Get to work Krolik.
Good points on the post, especially on his development…I’ve always had a feeling his ceiling may not be as high as some think, but here on this team is probably the one place where he could have a lot of success. In a way he’s kinda like AV. How successful would he have been if the Magic had traded him somewhere else? His development can be directly traced to LBJ’s game and the chemistry they have. If they do indeed trade him, it better be for someone on the right side of 30 who can shoot and play defense.
(To the first question about this blog, I asked because of the potential conflict of working with both ESPN and NBC…one of these days one of the nets may say, ‘Make a choice.’ Good to know that’s not the situation now.)
J.J. reminds me of an idiot savant, but instead of, say, absorbing and recalling a remarkable amount of information with stunning accuracy, all he wants to do is put the ball in the hole from short distances. But he still needs Mike Brown to pull his pants up after he makes a tinkle.
From reading various Wizards blogs, I get the feeling that it would not take JJ to pry Jamison out of DC, just Z’s deal and a pick or two. I think because JJ has become much more of a contributor in the last month it actually makes Ferry’s job easier- if the Wizards want too much, he can easily walk away. This is a problem for Washington, because they really need to move Jamison’s contract if they have hopes of rebuilding quickly, especially since it would seem they will not be able to void the Arenas deal. There also appear to be no other teams in need of an aging PF scoring machine that are willing to take on years and salary. So, it is deal with Ferry on his terms or eat both Jamison’s and Arenas’ contracts. All this talk about how the Washington front office would rather not help the Cavs is just posturing.
Jamison for now- JJ for later? That’s cake AND pie.
JJ is perfect offensively for a team that has Shaq and LeBron, two guys that demand a double team in the lane and are a good passers. All Hickson has to do is cut at the right time and finish strong, THAT’S IT! Who cares about his jumper? Do they really need a stretch four for that offense when they can just take it to the rim?
The allure of a “stretch four” escapes me. I know it opens up the offense, but why do the Cavs need a big man that can shoot the least efficient shot on the floor when they can just dominate the paint like they have recently? And don’t essentially already have a stretch big man with Z?
Plus, it’s not like the team leans on JJ that much. As John wrote, he’s barely even used in the third quarter. I think Brown’s rotation is pretty solid right now. The players on the floor in the fourth quarter are the guys you want to go to war with late in playoff games.
I know the Cavs have to go for broke this year, but I think getting rid of Hickson is a mistake long term. Who knows how he can develop when need be? With Shaq out of there next year, perhaps he works on his post game and he’s a guy that they do call plays for? How about a front court of the future of AV-JJ-LBJ?
Think it’s important to note that JJ’s improved play coincides with an increase in Shaq’s effectiveness – plus, the amount he’s getting double-teamed – and with LeBron handling the ball even more because Mo is out. Bron is a better passer than Mo and breaks down the defense in bigger ways as well. Will be interesting to see if this all continues.
I’m glad we’re giving JJ an opportunity. It’s not like it’s a hard role to play, it’s really ideal for his skillset, hence the reason Ferry drafted him.
You notice from his interviews that he’s trying to prove something to his coach. He doesn’t enjoy making mistakes but he’s still trying to figure out the game and how to use his talents the best. He’s been progressing, while showing more flashes of potential, and potential dominance at that – a fearless dunk on a superstar, then a fearless block squashing the revenge dunk. What happens if he harnesses that?
The best thing about it is how JJ is responding to trade rumors. He didn’t ask for a trade. He didn’t want one. He’s playing his dream, catching ‘oops from LeBron. He could be worried about this. Instead of doing that, though, JJ responds by playing aggressive, making a statement: Don’t Trade Me.
I’d be disappointed if we trade for Jamison and include JJ – too much to give at this point. Parallels to Jermaine O’neal from Portland are strong on this one. We shouldn’t just stack on talent with disregard to age – we’ll see what happens with that with Boston and SA, we don’t necessarily need to follow.
I’m weary about trading him also for a guy like Igoudala or Amare. The position we’d ask them to play is a role player. If it were Ray Allen, or Kevin Martin, I could see it happen, Jamison even would fit, but wouldn’t AI2 and Amare demand the ball too much. Wouldn’t they wonder why they’re setting screens and having to find their own shot off of LeBron passes? Iggy may figure it out, but would Amare take it?
So I am a first time poster, but wanted to ask the smart ones: Since we can sign and trade Wally is it more likely that Ferry, with Gilbert’s wallet, does that to get _____ (fill in the blank) then trade Z and/or JJ and hope Z comes back? What kind of odds we looking at? John? Anyone? Anyone? Buehler?
If the Lisztomania for the ’10 Cavs builds into a crescendo, it will be only appropriate for Cleveland Orchestra to do a few covers of the Liztomania and other appropriate rock songs (“The Wild Thing”?) … Hey!! Why Not?
Linoos … sorry to be a pedant, but crescendo means gradually getting louder. You can’t build into a gradually getting louder. I think what you meant to write is “If the Lisztomania for the ’10 Cavs builds to a climax.”
Crescendo remains one of the least understood words in the Italian language … at least when it’s appropriated by English speakers.
JoseMesaIsDead (I just wanted to type that out) touched on something that I have been thinking – the reason for JJ’s recent success is because LBJ is running the point, and I fear that his effectiveness will regress once again when Mo returns. Bron’s ability to blow past his defender at any given moment means that JJ’s defender is never paying him more than half his attention, and this is what allows JJ to get so many open looks so close to the basket. Like Andy to an extent – Andy gets so many layups because he realizes when his defender is paying more attention to Bron, and cuts to the hoop. JJ doesn’t necessarily start as far out as Andy, but he is the beneficiary of a pass near the hoop when his man tries to help contain Bron. Mo is not an attacking PG and therefore allows JJ’s defender to focus more on him. I hope I’m wrong, because JJ playing at this level could be very important come playoff time (in the even more limited minutes he’ll see), but I will not be surprised if Hicksomania stops running wild all over you (brother) as soon as Mo returns to the lineup.
JK’s statistical analysis and comprehensive breakdown of subject matter is one the reasons why CavsTB is a must read for me. However, one thing that I see missing from all of these trade scenarios is a little common sense. A team must have production from people that don’t make HUGE sums of money. Our biggest money makers produce the most, which is both a good and logical thing. But to win championships and contend yearly, smaller earners must out-perform their contracts. LeBron, Z, Mo, Anderson and Shaq make big coin. Everyone else gets what’s leftover, which besides Gilbert’s willingness to spend, is the reason the team is so deep. You simply cannot get all of your production from only the “Earners”. I disagree with John about JJ’s potential ceiling. While nothing is certain, of course, if he showed a nice stroke and hit the jumpers before, that means he will do it again. It’s not like his shot looks like Anderson. Factor in JJ being five years younger than LBJ, and you have JJ blossoming into a real baller when LeBron needs not just older but younger complementary parts. In addition, if JJ blossoms like many think he will, his next contract is going to come when the contract market is restricted by the overall financial market. He isn’t going to get Millsap’s contract. Listen, I’m all for getting a ring to make LeBron stay. But he has to see that there is a younger generation that will grow with him. I don’t think you can continually win by replacing an aging, overpaid player with an expiring contract with a slightly younger, soon to be expiring contract. If someone wants Z and will do the buyout, then go for it. For now, but especially for the future, I’m not trading a kid who would be a junior in college, who continues to improve as his coach/teammates trust him, and can flat out run and jump out of the gym. Not to mention we currently don’t have another big man who shows the ability to have a PLUS offensive game 2 or 3 years from now. Thanks for letting me vent. I’m going to go back to my role as President of the JJ Hickson fan club now.
I think much of the recent progress of JJ is due to LBJ playing PG and Shaq fitting in better. The LBJ as PG offense is another wrinkle MB can use to really change the complexion of the game – even when Mo & Delonte are back. I don’t think this should be the primary offense ran, but it’s nice to have options to use throughout the game. Having a talent like LBJ who can play 4 positions really well is a luxury and figuring out where/how to play him for the betterment of the team is the real trick. I love that the Cavs can play big or small with anybody. If MB can really learn how to use the talent in the right combinations at the right time to take advantage of the right match-ups, LBJ et. al. will get that ring. Another stretch player is the only missing element but I think the LBJ as pg may somewhat serve that purpose when needed.
A wise man once said: “Dance with the girl that brung ya.” If ever there was a year to dance with that girl, it’s this year. In past years, I think it was necessary to pull that trigger, but not this year. We match up so well with LA. The last test on my theory is Thursday’s game vs. Orlando. They are starting to gel with Vince and i’m very curious to see how this game shakes out. In the meantime, i think the Cavs can get laid on prom night with this chick…
Chef/Farmer Zach:
You’re right when you say: “But he has to see that there is a younger generation that will grow with him. I don’t think you can continually win by replacing an aging, overpaid player with an expiring contract with a slightly younger, soon to be expiring contract.” and this is one of the big reasons why trading Hickson for Jamison is a mistake, but the Cavs are going to be in a situation next year where they are going to be right around the salary cap – and that is NOT where you want to be when you have an owner like Dan Gilbert. You either want to be way under so you can play the FA lottery, or you want to be way over. If the Cavs make a move for someone with a big contract like Jamison, that contract becomes an asset in 2 years. Look at how the Cavs have built their team the last few years, they’ve given affordable contracts to draft picks and guys like Delonte and Powe who might not have been getting a chance elsewhere, and the rest of the roster were overpaid guys that we were able to trade for with expiring deals. Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, Shaq etc. All of those huge contracts become assets to add talent despite being over the cap.
I just worry that we won’t add any assets, Shaq will be gone, Z may or may not retire, and suddenly our massive frontcourt is gone, we’re hovering right around the cap, we have a very late round draft pick, and we have really lost our flexibility. If you add a guy like Igudala now you are juggernaut for the next 3 years and if you add a guy like Jamison you are elite for 2 years and then you have a huge trade asset in year 3.
John,
Everyone is talking about making a trade using Z’s expiring contract. It seems like Igudala can be had, but only if Dalembert is taken as well. My question is, the since the logical way to make the contracts work there is to trade away half our rotation players, why not trade Shaq’s expiring contract, buy HIM out, and add some depth in front court for next year anyway?
What is stopping the Cavs from shopping Shaq’s expiring contract?
CIM had a fund drive campaign called “Building to a Crescendo” a couple years ago while I was there. Strangely incorrect for a music school.
I think the key is putting the right balance of bigs and shooters around Lebron for the future – as somebody pointed out above, Shaq and Z will be gone very soon, leaving what would right now be Andy, JJ, and Powe in a couple years. Ferry seems to be working with little regard to the lockout that’s supposedly coming up, so longterm money is certainly not an issue…
Then again, with Lebron being able to play both the 1 and the 5, thinness in either the frontcourt or the backcourt might just allow Lebron to play at different positions.
Hicksomania
Think less and he will grow
Like Ceballos, Like Ceballos, oh!
Not easily defended
Not hard to trade him so
Let him dunk on the masses
Mat’s Hickson lyrics FTW!
One thing i think that is lost in all the Hickson analysis is his post game. JJ has a better post game than almost any 21 year old you’ll see. Hooks, turn-arounds, up and unders, turn and face (did you see his behind the back the other night?), and is getting better at finishing with the left hand. The Jermaine O’Neil comparisons are wrong, because O’Neil was so darned skinny. I also agree about the rebound rate. It’s skewed because the team rebounds so well on defense (it is nice to see JJ going wildly after o-boards). He’s a total throwback player in that regard. The great thing lately is his ability to finish at different angles, and in traffic. His Jumper will come. I’m trying to think of a good comparison for him: and it’s Al Jefferson’s post game, with Karl Malone’s ability to run the floor and finish, and Larry Nance’s shot blocking ability (yes, i think he has that much raw talent). The Wiz will hold out for Hickson, but I’d hate to see him go, for his own sake as well as ours. I think if you put him around a bunch of chuckle-heads like the Wizards, he’ll never be the same.
jj hickson is going to be tight. he’s young, nobody expects him to be awesome. he’s not lebron 2, but it’s obvious he is an athlete, and look at who he gets to learn from: lebron and shaq. he could be a very importatn part of this franchise once lebron and shaq are gone. i dont want to hear powe.
for the record, phoenix has never made a better record than their first one. and i’m older than all of ya, so what i say goes on this subject! ha! j/k…
What is stopping the Cavs from shopping Shaq??
Mainly “Dwight Howard” … Shaq was brought in for one major reason, and that was to provide a big body that could stop Dwight Howard come playoff time. Anything else we get after that is gravy.
Dude, nobody cares you put Phoenix up. If nobody comments about it, why comment?
Good read, though.
Because somebody DID comment. Uh, so that’s probably why.
And my god J.J. Hickson with Al Jefferson post moves? He has the best post moves in the league!
Totally correct me if I’m going over the top here, but it sorta seems to me that J.J. is getting by more on potential than real results. The argument is he’s on 21 years old and should be a Junior in college. But Kevin Love is the same age and he’s awesome. There aren’t many power forwards better than Love, so it’s lofty to say Hickson should be on his level, but why is Love so much more polished than Hickson, despite being the same age? Hickson is more athletic and probably a little taller, but Love is way ahead of him. I will say that Hickson has been a lot better during this stretch. Earlier, I would have rather MB played Jeff Phelps over J.J., but he’s definitely been a key rotation guy lately. But this raw ability stuff seems pretty damn lofty (Jefferson, Malone) when there’s another 21-22 year old tearing it up.