The Four Chronicles: Is Hicksomania For Real?
2010-02-08Quick thing before we begin: I thought I made this clear in my announcement, but my job with NBC will have zero effect on Cavs: The Blog. Contractually, I’m able to do what I want, and I’ll still be recapping every game and posting at the same rate. The only possible change would be to Links To The Present, and even that isn’t definite yet. I’m going to try and make it work. There’s no way I would leave this blog in the middle of the season the Cavs are having right now. Now, onto the post.
One of the reasons that I felt it was in the Cavs’ best interest to make a move for a stretch four before the trade deadline is that JJ Hickson was playing some terrible basketball.
Hickson was inserted into the starting lineup after Anderson Varejao and Shaq failed to make it work as starters. Hickson had a few nice games, appeared able to make some of the mid-range jumpers that Varejao couldn’t hit, and became a fixture in the starting lineup. After his nice start, Hickson entered a very long stretch where he was not successful at making mid-range jumpers or playing basketball.
Hickson has a nice-looking stroke on his jumpers, but he is very bad at enticing his jump shots to go into the basket. Hickson is currently making 18.2% on his jumpers from 10-15 feet, and 23.0% of his jumpers from 16-23 feet. Those are not good numbers.
Going past the jumpers, Hickson’s effect on the starting lineup was absolutely toxic. I’ve mentioned this a few times in this space before, and I’ll mention it again; as of February 3rd, the Cavs’ starting lineup was one of their worst five-man units, which is almost unprecedented for a contending team.
Hickson’s effect on the Cavs’ defense has been particularly unfavorable. As of February 3rd, the Cavs were 7.6 points per 100 possessions worse defensively with Hickson on the floor. When Hickson sat, the Cavs had a defensive efficiency of 101.2, which would be the fifth-best mark in the league. When Hickson played, the Cavs’ defensive efficiency went to 108.8, which would make them 29th in the league defensively.
The Hickson effect is everywhere; last season, LeBron James had the third-highest defensive +/- in the league. This year, the Cavs are actually slightly worse defensively when LeBron is on the floor. The fact that LeBron plays most of his minutes with Hickson instead of when Hickson sits is perhaps the biggest reason for this.
One final thing to drive home the point that JJ Hickson has been really bad at defense: Take a look at how the Cavs play defense by quarter.
In the Fourth Quarter, the Cavs are the third-best defensive team in the league.
In the Third Quarter, the Cavs are the second-best defensive team in the league.
In the Second Quarter, the Cavs are the fifth-best defensive team in the league.
In the First Quarter, which is the only quarter that Hickson has typically seen extended minutes (he’s generally gotten a pretty quick hook in the third), the Cavs are the 15th-best defensive team in the league.
Before the Laker game, I was more than ready to see the Hickson experiment come to an end. Get someone in a trade to replace his minutes. Get Powe healthy. Heck, I would’ve been somewhat okay with replacing Hickson with Jawad Williams. Anything.
Then the Laker game happened, and Hicksomania began. I don’t know how to explain it, but JJ Hickson has looked like a new man. He’s catching passes he was fumbling before. He’s making smart cuts to get baskets instead of trying to face up from 15 and dribble-drive to the rim. He’s shown much more discipline about shooting mid-range jumpers. His rebounding has noticeably improved.
In the nine-game stretch starting with the Christmas Day game against the Lakers, Hickson has scored in double figures five times. He’s shot 58% over that stretch, and 77% from the line. Both of those figures represent significant improvements over his season averages. He’s also averaging 6.8 rebounds per game over this stretch, which is over two rebounds per game better than his season average. Turnovers have continued to be a problem, as JJ is still averaging slightly over a turnover per game despite his limited minutes.
JJ is simplifying his game, and it’s paying dividends. He’s starting to understand how to focus on doing what the team needs out of him rather than using his possessions to explore the limits of his talents. Shaq said JJ could be “The Next Cedric Ceballos” after the Minnesota game. It was an odd bit of praise, but on point. Shaq told JJ that he could be a successful player without needing anything run for him, and Hickson seems to have taken that advice to heart.
Best of all, Hickson seems to be making strides towards being a competent defensive player. He’s developing a nasty streak defensively, and seems to be playing both harder and smarter on the defensive end. The Cavs have been giving up an average of only 24 points in the first quarter of this stretch, which would be the 6th-best mark in the league.
Only the Lakers, Grizzlies, and Heat have scored more than 25 first-quarter points in the last nine games, and the Cavs have held their opponents to 20 points or less in three of the last five first quarters.
Danny Ferry has some tough decisions to make over the next nine days, and whether or not to give up on Hickson’s development is another one of those decisions. Hickson’s value is currently soaring, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to keep up this level of play for the rest of the season, let alone in the playoffs. On top of that, it’s hard to confidently project Hickson’s development as a shooter and playmaker when he’s shown very little aptitude in those areas so far.
On the other hand, Hickson is a tremendous athlete, is still very young, and is one of the few bigs in the Cavs rotation young enough to build around. And of course, the Cavs are absolutely firing on all cylinders with Hickson in the starting lineup. Add that to the possible complications in securing a buyout for Ilgauskas, and a Z/Hickson swap for a player like Jamison looks like much less of a slam dunk than it did a month ago.
Because somebody DID comment. Uh, so that’s probably why. And my god J.J. Hickson with Al Jefferson post moves? He has the best post moves in the league! Totally correct me if I’m going over the top here, but it sorta seems to me that J.J. is getting by more on potential than real results. The argument is he’s on 21 years old and should be a Junior in college. But Kevin Love is the same age and he’s awesome. There aren’t many power forwards better than Love, so it’s lofty to say Hickson should be on his level, but… Read more »
Dude, nobody cares you put Phoenix up. If nobody comments about it, why comment?
Good read, though.
What is stopping the Cavs from shopping Shaq??
Mainly “Dwight Howard” … Shaq was brought in for one major reason, and that was to provide a big body that could stop Dwight Howard come playoff time. Anything else we get after that is gravy.
for the record, phoenix has never made a better record than their first one. and i’m older than all of ya, so what i say goes on this subject! ha! j/k…
jj hickson is going to be tight. he’s young, nobody expects him to be awesome. he’s not lebron 2, but it’s obvious he is an athlete, and look at who he gets to learn from: lebron and shaq. he could be a very importatn part of this franchise once lebron and shaq are gone. i dont want to hear powe.
One thing i think that is lost in all the Hickson analysis is his post game. JJ has a better post game than almost any 21 year old you’ll see. Hooks, turn-arounds, up and unders, turn and face (did you see his behind the back the other night?), and is getting better at finishing with the left hand. The Jermaine O’Neil comparisons are wrong, because O’Neil was so darned skinny. I also agree about the rebound rate. It’s skewed because the team rebounds so well on defense (it is nice to see JJ going wildly after o-boards). He’s a total… Read more »
Mat’s Hickson lyrics FTW!
CIM had a fund drive campaign called “Building to a Crescendo” a couple years ago while I was there. Strangely incorrect for a music school. I think the key is putting the right balance of bigs and shooters around Lebron for the future – as somebody pointed out above, Shaq and Z will be gone very soon, leaving what would right now be Andy, JJ, and Powe in a couple years. Ferry seems to be working with little regard to the lockout that’s supposedly coming up, so longterm money is certainly not an issue… Then again, with Lebron being able… Read more »
John,
Everyone is talking about making a trade using Z’s expiring contract. It seems like Igudala can be had, but only if Dalembert is taken as well. My question is, the since the logical way to make the contracts work there is to trade away half our rotation players, why not trade Shaq’s expiring contract, buy HIM out, and add some depth in front court for next year anyway?
What is stopping the Cavs from shopping Shaq’s expiring contract?
Chef/Farmer Zach: You’re right when you say: “But he has to see that there is a younger generation that will grow with him. I don’t think you can continually win by replacing an aging, overpaid player with an expiring contract with a slightly younger, soon to be expiring contract.” and this is one of the big reasons why trading Hickson for Jamison is a mistake, but the Cavs are going to be in a situation next year where they are going to be right around the salary cap – and that is NOT where you want to be when you… Read more »
A wise man once said: “Dance with the girl that brung ya.” If ever there was a year to dance with that girl, it’s this year. In past years, I think it was necessary to pull that trigger, but not this year. We match up so well with LA. The last test on my theory is Thursday’s game vs. Orlando. They are starting to gel with Vince and i’m very curious to see how this game shakes out. In the meantime, i think the Cavs can get laid on prom night with this chick…
I think much of the recent progress of JJ is due to LBJ playing PG and Shaq fitting in better. The LBJ as PG offense is another wrinkle MB can use to really change the complexion of the game – even when Mo & Delonte are back. I don’t think this should be the primary offense ran, but it’s nice to have options to use throughout the game. Having a talent like LBJ who can play 4 positions really well is a luxury and figuring out where/how to play him for the betterment of the team is the real trick.… Read more »
JK’s statistical analysis and comprehensive breakdown of subject matter is one the reasons why CavsTB is a must read for me. However, one thing that I see missing from all of these trade scenarios is a little common sense. A team must have production from people that don’t make HUGE sums of money. Our biggest money makers produce the most, which is both a good and logical thing. But to win championships and contend yearly, smaller earners must out-perform their contracts. LeBron, Z, Mo, Anderson and Shaq make big coin. Everyone else gets what’s leftover, which besides Gilbert’s willingness to… Read more »
JoseMesaIsDead (I just wanted to type that out) touched on something that I have been thinking – the reason for JJ’s recent success is because LBJ is running the point, and I fear that his effectiveness will regress once again when Mo returns. Bron’s ability to blow past his defender at any given moment means that JJ’s defender is never paying him more than half his attention, and this is what allows JJ to get so many open looks so close to the basket. Like Andy to an extent – Andy gets so many layups because he realizes when his… Read more »
Linoos … sorry to be a pedant, but crescendo means gradually getting louder. You can’t build into a gradually getting louder. I think what you meant to write is “If the Lisztomania for the ’10 Cavs builds to a climax.”
Crescendo remains one of the least understood words in the Italian language … at least when it’s appropriated by English speakers.
If the Lisztomania for the ’10 Cavs builds into a crescendo, it will be only appropriate for Cleveland Orchestra to do a few covers of the Liztomania and other appropriate rock songs (“The Wild Thing”?) … Hey!! Why Not?
So I am a first time poster, but wanted to ask the smart ones: Since we can sign and trade Wally is it more likely that Ferry, with Gilbert’s wallet, does that to get _____ (fill in the blank) then trade Z and/or JJ and hope Z comes back? What kind of odds we looking at? John? Anyone? Anyone? Buehler?
I’m glad we’re giving JJ an opportunity. It’s not like it’s a hard role to play, it’s really ideal for his skillset, hence the reason Ferry drafted him. You notice from his interviews that he’s trying to prove something to his coach. He doesn’t enjoy making mistakes but he’s still trying to figure out the game and how to use his talents the best. He’s been progressing, while showing more flashes of potential, and potential dominance at that – a fearless dunk on a superstar, then a fearless block squashing the revenge dunk. What happens if he harnesses that? The… Read more »
Think it’s important to note that JJ’s improved play coincides with an increase in Shaq’s effectiveness – plus, the amount he’s getting double-teamed – and with LeBron handling the ball even more because Mo is out. Bron is a better passer than Mo and breaks down the defense in bigger ways as well. Will be interesting to see if this all continues.
JJ is perfect offensively for a team that has Shaq and LeBron, two guys that demand a double team in the lane and are a good passers. All Hickson has to do is cut at the right time and finish strong, THAT’S IT! Who cares about his jumper? Do they really need a stretch four for that offense when they can just take it to the rim? The allure of a “stretch four” escapes me. I know it opens up the offense, but why do the Cavs need a big man that can shoot the least efficient shot on the… Read more »
From reading various Wizards blogs, I get the feeling that it would not take JJ to pry Jamison out of DC, just Z’s deal and a pick or two. I think because JJ has become much more of a contributor in the last month it actually makes Ferry’s job easier- if the Wizards want too much, he can easily walk away. This is a problem for Washington, because they really need to move Jamison’s contract if they have hopes of rebuilding quickly, especially since it would seem they will not be able to void the Arenas deal. There also appear… Read more »
J.J. reminds me of an idiot savant, but instead of, say, absorbing and recalling a remarkable amount of information with stunning accuracy, all he wants to do is put the ball in the hole from short distances. But he still needs Mike Brown to pull his pants up after he makes a tinkle.
Well I for one fully expect XX or Yeasayer in the next couple posts. Get to work Krolik. Good points on the post, especially on his development…I’ve always had a feeling his ceiling may not be as high as some think, but here on this team is probably the one place where he could have a lot of success. In a way he’s kinda like AV. How successful would he have been if the Magic had traded him somewhere else? His development can be directly traced to LBJ’s game and the chemistry they have. If they do indeed trade him,… Read more »
Progress, however minimal, is still progress. I’m not expecting something like Deerhunter or Dan Deacon.
Anyway, I’ll stop hijacking this place for musical purposes. JJ Hickson blah blah Cedric Jackson? Andre Iguodala blah blah adjusted usage rate!
Please don’t praise me for Phoenix. I like them and the song title was appropriate, but Phoenix is what people who don’t listen to indie music listen to so they can say they listen to indie music. I have no shame about the fact I am one of those people. But I don’t want to pretend I’m anything I’m not. Plus, TBBJ was onto Phoenix a while ago.
JJ’s surge is probably one of the larger reasons that the Cavs have kept this winning streak up with Mike Brown third on the PG depth chart. (On second thought, somebody needs to photoshop this.) It’s likely that Jamison might not offer the Cavs a much better option right now (and certainly not 5-7 years from now). I think if Hickson is indeed traded, there’s no way that he becomes the same player that he would with the Cavs, just due to the presence of Lebron as both passer and playmaker. Due to this, I’m not sure how much other… Read more »