Part One: Thoughts on the Bench / Rotation
2012-11-12A day after Colin loosely criticized criticizing rotations; I have a full post doing that. At Cavs:the Blog, that is what we call synergy.
If someone told me the following things would be true in 2012 – 2013:
- Kyrie tallies 23 points and 6 assists per game on 57% true shooting;
- Dion averages 15 points with a 17.5 PER; and
- Andy plays 85% of Cleveland’s contests and posts a nightly 13 & 13;
My guess would have been, “Ready or not, playoffs, here we come!!” Instead, Cleveland sits with a record of 2 and 5, and the sixth-worst point differential in the league.
You know the problem: bench play. Aside from Daniel Gibson, the weighted-per-minute-PER for the non-top-six players is 5.8. Their worth according to basketball-reference…negative 0.7 win shares. That must be league worst.
Let’s assume for a minute that a season where Kyrie and Dion thrive, that is sabotaged by the bench, and results in another top-eight pick is a bad thing. What can Cleveland do with the current roster to avoid the lapses of quality basketball caused when the starters sit?
Andy is furious about losing. He is willing to play 12 minutes a game without Kyrie to make it stop.
- Already enacted is step one; no more Luke Walton. Mr. Walton, you clearly have a good head for the game. May your coaching career bring many successes.
- This is the most important one; make sure that Kyrie or Andy is on the court at all times. Did you realize that in Andy’s six games, he has played only seventeen minutes without Kyrie? There are two players on the team where I confidently think the opponent can not forge any 12 – 0 runs, and their minutes need dispersed a bit more. If both continue to play 35 minutes per night; start them both, sit Andy with six minutes to go in the first, while Kyrie plays the entire quarter. Sit Kyrie for the first half of the second quarter, with Varejao on the court all twelve minutes. Repeat in the second half.
- CJ Miles must stop being horrible. Four straight seasons each featuring over one-thousand minutes, he posted PER’s above replacement level and offensive ratings over 100. Each of those years included decent assist rates and low turnovers. He is not in the same universe as those numbers through the early portion of this season. Time for him to figure things out and return to prior levels.
- Tyler Zeller needs back on the court. In the two games prior to injury, he totaled 17 points and 14 rebounds. Get well soon, TZ.
- Approaching 100 games into Samardo Samuels’ career, he remains a sub-replacement-level player. I would like to see Jon Leuer continue seeing playing time. Slightly younger than Samuels, Leuer posted solid NBA numbers last year. Cleveland knows what exists with the old guy; give the new blood an opportunity.
- Sorry to repeatedly be so hard on you, Donald Sloan, but you must go. Now 744 minutes into your career, an 8.7 PER does not portend NBA-caliber performance. When Kyrie sits; Cleveland needs to suit-up a crew featuring Dion AND Andy, or something like: Gibson, Miles, Gee, Leuer, Varejao.
I continue to think that, when healthy, the five starters, plus Boobie, Miles, Leuer, and Zeller can resemble a decent nine-man rotation. Sure, this is contingent on CJ Miles not resembling a steaming pile of garbage. Let me know your ideas, or if your preference is a season of Kyrie = All – Star, Dion = first-team-rookie, Cavs = 25 wins and high draft pick thanks to crappy bench play…let me know that, too.
Finally, come back Tuesday morning for “Part Two: A Numerical Take on Dion’s First Two Weeks”.
Mallory, I totally agree with you. Picks are random, its way too early to give up and tank, and all that. However, have you ever seen a coach use worse bench management in your life? I haven’t. It looks like he’s letting the bench flounder on purpose, and when there is a clear benefit in doing so, and the coach is fresh off a half year of tanking, then I’m gonna go ahead and assume he’s doing what it looks like he’s doing. I don’t like it, but it sure looks like Scott has given up. Maybe all your excuses… Read more »
You want Leuer to see more playing time? Have you not noticed his defense? His defensive performance against Carl Landry was one of the worst i have ever seen.
Cory, the thing is the Thunder and their fan base never intentionally tanked it to get these players. The growing pains were natural. The just rolled with the punches. All I’m saying is that it saddens me that people think the only way for us to win is to continue losing. Especially now, I refuse to believe that’s the case.
“The Kings are filled with pieces to different puzzles.” Corey Hughey+1
I don’t fear that they will become the Kings or Warriors at all. Gilbert won’t let that happen. Scott won’t let that happen. Kyrie won’t let that happen. The Kings are filled with pieces to different puzzles. I still thing Boogie and Evans could be solid players elsewhere. There is a sad reality under the current NBA construction: there are five teams who can rebuild in one offseason and the Cavs aren’t one of them. I still have faith that Thompson will evolve his game…He might not. I’m confident in KI and Waiters. One more draft with two first rounders… Read more »
Kyrieswirving – First, I highly doubt 5 games into the season Scott’s mentality is “lets see how badly we can lose with our bench.” I can’t remember who said it, or on what thread (this one or the other that Kevin wrote) but the basic gist was that we have no idea why the rotation is what it is right now – it could be a variety of things – Maybe Scott thinks Dion needs to learn to work with Kyrie before he can put him out there on his own for a while. Maybe Donald Sloan is working his… Read more »
I agree with Mallory. Winning is fun; now and in the future.
Seth, you do realize that in 14-15 Verajoa will be a whopping 32 years old right? Past his prime, sure, but still probably better than your average any 6-14 pick that we’ll get in next years draft. Mallory, as for your assertion that the management has no plan of the number of picks we need, I’m pretty sure Scott’s rotation decisions make it pretty obvious that they do. If he wants to win, without hurting development, there is no reason Dion doesn’t run the second unit and that he doesn’t stagger Andy and Kyries minutes. As for your assertion that… Read more »
Is it just me, or does being a Cleveland fan make us too desperate to please and too desperate to show our appreciation for talent that we let supreme athletes off the hook from ever maximizing their potential. I fear that Kyrie’s D will suffer the same fate as Lebron’s post game, as in, not develop for way too long because everyone is too enamored with what he does well that they let him coast, and he’ll feel entitled to do only that which he wants to do, that which everyone praises him for. Maybe Byron should sit Kyrie for… Read more »
This team is going nowhere this year. It’s time to cash out that AV chip for while we still can. It hurts to have to trade your second best player but there is no chance he is still a valuable player by the time this team is ready to compete (2013-14 is overly optimistic in my opinion). This draft sucks but hey we have to make lemonade. Also missing (yeah I said it) on TT is really going to hurt the long term plan to win by 2013-14.
I have to disagree with Ben. I think he’s got some observational bias here. Gee is killing us, but it’s not his putting the ball on the deck. He’s been fine on the dribble, and has averaged 58% on non 3 point shoots (.621 at the rim) and 100% at the line, where he chips in 3 points a game, and his assist to turnover ratio is just under 1, but it is rising, which isn’t great, but isn’t the worst. His three point shooting has been BAD. He’s hesitating on rhythm threes, especially on the wing, and then launching… Read more »
Nate Smith and others,
Don’t know if you noticed yet, but the True Hoop TV thing at ESPN is about Kyrie today. An excerpt is:
Hollinger also noted that Irving’s defense was a ‘horrifying flaming train wreck.’ Irving’s response in his TrueHoop TV debut was interesting. Noting he was out of shape, he makes a rare confession for a professional athlete: “Honestly,” says Irving, “I was pretty horrible on defense.” But he also says that this season, “John Hollinger will definitely eat his words.”
Kyrie needs to get to work on that last part. Link is: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/51425/truehoop-tv-kyrie-irvings-motivation
Chris (and Corey) the problem with your model is that, other than OKC, no team has ever really drafted so many high quality players so quickly like that. Basically, we’d have to hit the nail on the head next year, or that pick becomes a waste.
The point is I don’t think ANYONE (including Byron, Grant, and Gilbert) has a schedule for how many losses/lottery picks we should have at this point. If a team is good at draft, it’ll find a gem anywhere. Need we bring up Kevin’s stats on finding top tier guys everywhere in the draft?
Ben FTW!
But seriously, I think you nail it. Particularly on the topic of Gee.
Wow, Ben, that was really something else. One of the best pieces I’ve seen here. You got my appreciation for sure. By the way, those that have doubt, go to the ESPN team department and look for the stats. Check the PER numbers and Ben’s evaluation makes perfect sense.
By the way, the bench did not loose the game in Oklahoma. The starters did. You can check that from the play-by-play column looking at the last 10 minutes of the game.
What Corey said. Hits nail on head.
The year before OKC drafted their third piece (Harden) they were 23-59. That was with Durant and Green (2nd year), Westbrook (1st year) and Ibaka stashed away in Spain.
The next year they made the leap and went to 50-32, good for 8th spot in the West.
If we’re serious about putting a team together that can battle for titles over the next 5 – 7 years (and more!) it makes complete sense to bed in the rooks and get a top 5 pick this year.
I think it’s easy to pile on Scott for rotation choices, however sitting behind a computer, we don’t have nearly the perspective on why he makes certain choices and how to develop a winning team over the course of a season rather than a certain game. Sure Luke Walton has played terrible, but is he busting it in practice, doing things behind the scenes that make a winner? When Scott chooses who to play he is telling the guys what is important, what they need to emulate in order to get minutes and be successful. We see the results on… Read more »
Calm down everyone… We are a young team starting the season with a 6 game road trip. It comes early, so we look worse than we are. That being said, I think we are close to a .500 team and certainly no better. That .500 record is contingent on a logical rotation and our players playing with a modicum of intelligence. Right now these our our biggest problems in close to importance. 1. Byron Scott’s insistence on playing a “backup PG” instead of letting Dion run that unit. Sloan can’t see real minutes unless we are trying to lose. 2.… Read more »
Ben,
I second most of your points. Alonzo Gee’s usage rate is 3 possessions per 100 higher this year than any other season. As a result, his efficiency is definitely down (too many turnovers, too many threes). His role in the offense needs trimmed back down.
I thought the cavs would contend for the playoffs and get to 38 wins, and still think they are capable of it, but Scott has other ideas. He keeps playing sloan and Miles even when miles couldn’t beat me one on one right now (hopefully that changes). He keeps playing Verajoa and Kyrie at the same time, leaving us incredibly vulnerable when they rest. He doesn’t always put Dion in charge when Kyrie sits, which would obviously help our chances of winning, no question. Scott doesn’t want to win. Same thing happened last year, there was a reason an old,… Read more »
30 or so wins seems about right. I think 35 would be their most optimistic scenario. Lower expectations and enjoy watching two young stars learn to play together. Next year we can start thinking about playoffs.
@J Hill:
I was never optimistic about this season, at least regarding the win/loss record. This Cavs team is just too young and lacking in veteran players to win many games. Only one guy in our starting five has played more than three years in the NBA. That’s insane.
I think that Kyrie making his first all-star appearance, Dion making all first team rookie, and the Cavs having a top 8 pick would be the optimal situation for us moving forward. If we can get some ping pong ball love, we may end up with a top 4 pick and that gives us a great core moving forward. When the front office decides we’re ready to start contending for the playoffs, Dan Gilbert will open his wallet for the free agent parts we need coming off the bench. We’re at the lower end of the spectrum in salary for… Read more »
After Lebron left Chris Grant and Danny Dan Gilbert (aka “Fathead Dude” aka “Comic Sans” aka “Beat up a guy at a bah mitzvah”) went all in building the team organically through the draft for three years in the OKC model. 2010 wasn’t a rebuilding year. It was the spring cleaning of the previous team. In 2011 they were fortunate to obtain Kyrie and Tristan (patience people). In 2012 they added Dionicon and Z 2.O. The 2013 draft is the third year of the rebuild and the upcoming season after that is when they will make their leap. I wish… Read more »
Cory Hughey,
I don’t think many people projected the Cavs winning 35+. I had them at 33 wins, and think most of my co-horts projected slightly less than that. I still think (with reasonable health) that they have approximately that level of talent.
There is no reason for an even worse record. We have some awesome young talent and if Scott can’t figure this out by now well maybe he needs to go. He leaves many of us scratching our head on not calling needed time outs way before they are down 15 points. Gets big attitudes with players and benches them and brings out pathetic replacements. We’ve had some close games and you have to be open minded and consider is Coach Scott’s decisions are perhaps sub par. It’s time for results that are far better than last year.
We have a strong core now (KI, DW, TT, TZ + possibly AV). You play the core and let them grow together.
If the rest of the rotation stinks then great. Let’s get another top pick then bring in quality rotation players when we make a push next season. We may also find a diamond (i.e. another Gee).
I’d love to see us playing for a playoff spot but it’s clearly not going to happen.
All about next year baby.
And heck, it’s fun watching Irving, Dion and AV go out it, even if we lose.
@Cols714 Unless you’re the lakers appearently. Badum tasst. I hate to say it but I have to agree with you. It’s becoming increasingly obvious that our season expectations should have been much lower than they already were, which is kind of sad. Basically expect the same win % as last year just with fewer blowouts and losing streaks capping out at 10 as opposed to 20.
Sure improve the bench. That’s the easy part. The hard part seems to be taken care of. They now have one great player in Irving and one player who looks like he’s going to be great in Dion.
If that’s all we learn this season, then this season is a success. Filling in around the stars is much easier than finding the stars. They’ve done the hard part.