This one was a little uglier than the score indicates. Against the Warriors—and without Tyler Zeller and Andy Varejao—the Cavs often looked overmatched. They clawed back from a 17-point deficit to take the lead in the third quarter, but their defense ultimately let them down and Golden State cruised to a 10-point victory. It’s hard to take a lot away from this game because the Cavs were missing their best big man (and defender) in Varejao, and Zeller, I think, would have fared well in a game that had some frenetic up-and-down stretches. Regardless, let us recap:
–All fires have to burn alive to live. Dion Waiters’s hallucinogenic fever finally broke tonight; he went 5-for-15 with some godawful shot selection. At one point in the third quarter, he took a step-back baseline 20-footer that clanked off the side of the backboard and yelled out “HASHTAGSAINTWEIRDO!” This is all part of the Dion Waiters Experience, obviously. He is the Westbrook to Irving’s Durant, and there are going to be games when his jumper is off and for whatever reason he just. keeps. shooting. This is fine, given that he’s the second- or third-most offensively gifted player on the team (depending on how you feel about Varejao) and the fourth-most offensively gifted player on the team might be Tyler Zeller. It’s not like there’s a teamful of gunners he should be deferring to when his shot isn’t falling. Just keep it to one horrendous air ball three-point attempt per game, okay Dion?
–Kyrie Irving and Steph Curry didn’t even pretend to guard each other. At one point late in the game, Byron Scott put Alonzo Gee on Curry, who passed the ball to an Irving-guarded Harrison Barnes at the top of the key. Barnes promptly blew by Irving and into the lane. I hope Scott and his staff try to embarrass Irving in film sessions about his defense. He’s too good of an athlete to not become a competent defender. But he was, y’know, characteristically phenomenal on the offensive end. I would say he carved the Warriors’ defense up, but the Warriors’ defense is rather like pork shoulder that’s been braising for twelve hours. There’s no real structural integrity to it. Let’s just say Kyrie poked the Warriors’ defense with a fork and it fell apart. Anyway, he had 28 points, eight assists, and seven rebounds. “M-V-P!” etc.
–Tristan Thompson posted a double-double (11 points and 10 rebounds) tonight on 4-for-8 shooting from the field. He had a couple nice put-backs and scored off some slick passes by Irving out of the pick-and-roll. 3-for-8 from the free throw line isn’t cutting it, but we’re trying to be optimistic here. On the defensive end, Thompson got torched by David Lee (who had 22 points and 14 boards), in part because he was too eager to go for shot blocks. A few times, when Lee caught the ball 15-plus feet from the basket, TT lunged at him, thinking the shot was going up. All Lee had to do was throw a little pump fake and he either blew by Thompson or drew a foul. This goes back to what I was saying earlier today about TT not being a natural shot-blocker: he needs to learn when to go for the block and when to bear down and keep his body in front of the offensive player.
–I didn’t notice this until I looked at box score, but Samardo Samuels had a pretty good game: 11 points, 7 rebounds, and three post-foul admonishments of the referees. Samuels may be a 10th man, but he gets pissed off at the referees like he’s been playing at an all-star level for a decade. How dare you call me for a foul on that play! I thought superstars like myself got a little more leeway in this league!
–Jon Leuer sighting! He can’t guard anyone, and he is appallingly not good at jumping or running, but he’s better than Luke Walton, sort of. He’s got a nice 15-footer as long as no one’s guarding him. My point is, if the Cavs want to play an unathletic white guy with a decent jumper at power forward—something this coaching staff has seemed very committed to doing over the past few years—then Leuer’s probably the best choice.
–”Hey, why isn’t Omri Casspi getting minutes?” [Watches Casspi attempt to play professional basketball.] “Ohhhhhhhh, so that’s why.”
–A programming note: ESPN has disabled their “photos” feature for games, which is where I used to pluck the post-game image from. Does anyone know of a good place to get photos from a game that is in progress/recently finished? Hit me up at colinsilasmcgowan [at] gmail [dot] com or just throw something in the comment section if you have any suggestions. Thanks.
The Cavs continue their west coast swing in Phoenix on Friday. Until tomorrow, friends.
UPDATE: Dion Waiters was limping around the locker room post-game due to a bruised right thigh. And apparently (the Golden State broadcast team didn’t tell me this) both Irving and C.J. Miles played tonight with food poisoning.
While I said this was Dion’s worst game so far, by no means was his shot selection “awful.” Come on. He had 2 bad shot attempts. A grand total of 2. Still shot 2 of 5 from 3-land and had 5 assists and zero TO’s. But his confidence was obviously shaken for the first time. His D was spotty as well…
Oh, and this game was not “uglier” than the score indicates. The Cavs were def in it til the last 3 minutes…
Samardo was absolutely abysmal on defense, though. He is one of the worst help-side defenders I’ve seen. He never had his eye on the ball when his man didn’t have it.
KJ, have we been watching the same Waiters? The guy is a chucker. Someday he may be a good chucker, but so far he has shown average to bad shot selection. On top of that, he’s been bad at drawing fouls. He has had 11 through 5 games, including a big fat goose egg last night. In comparison, Kyrie has already drawn 28. Not fair to compare a rookie to a sophomore you say? Then how about Damian Lillard who’s already drawn 19? For a guy who’s big talent is the ability to get to the basket, he should be drawing more fouls. I don’t mean to pick on you KJ, you’re not the only one around here who’s been unrealistic on Waiters. I can understand liking the guy, but he’s not showing superstar ability yet. There’s been a flash or two, but nothing sustainable. That said, it’s only been 5 games. It’s still a small sample size. I just think people need to wait before acting like Dion Waiters is the second coming.
I swear this blog is like an emo-Cavs blog. You guys worry about everything. Irving was great again. Waiters played OK but not horribly. Of course he had some bad shots. Someone on this team other than Irving is going to need to score. Waiters is probably going to be that guy.
Quit worrying about every little thing. The Cavs aren’t all that great this year so try to enjoy watching them improve and play.
Cols, who’s being emo? And who still uses the term “emo?” It’s awesome that Kyrie has been great again, but Dion needs better shot selection. Sorry if I’m not satisfied with mediocrity.
Jimbo, would you rather have a promising, up-coming PLAYING-IN-HIS-5TH-GAME-IN-THE-NBA rookie in Dion Waiters taking some contested, “bad” shots, or should we have kept Antawn around and let him chuck 20 shots a game?
Its a youth movement, get used to it. The Cavs are on the right track and these young guys are only gonna get better with more experience.
Diggin’ the Swan Lake reference, McGowan.
What Red said. And I don’t even think that Dion took all that many bad shots.
Listen, I said it was a small sample size. You guys need to keep that in mind too. Hopefully things get better. I’m happy that Jamison is gone, which is why I don’t want another chucker. Dion is certainly looking better than, say, Bradley Beal right now, but I’d still like him to do better. Again, sorry I want the players on my favorite team to improve.
Not having Andy or TZ under the hoop snagging offensive boards probably affected the confidence level of the gunners tonight (no excuse for not trying to drive through the porous GS defense though). 30 points in paint and 30+ three-ball attempts is good recipe for loss almost every time. Hard to watch Leuer and Casspi. If TZ is out for extended time, do they bring back Mike Eric? Also, what the hell happened to CJ? Did he suffer concussion the coaches don’t know about?
Also, I’d still rather have Dion than Barnes. That dude looked rough despite the 14pts.
I’d rather have Dion than pretty much any of the other draft picks except for Davis. Although maybe I could be talked into Gilchrest.
I was at the game and couldn’t disagree more with Jimbo. I also love Cols comment about emo-blog. Totally agree,
Back to Jimbo: The Cavs have a very tough time getting shots off. With AV and TZ out, the D was sagging inside and forcing us to shoot jumpers. Dion was patient all game. He did take several tough shots, but that was because no one on the team could score besides Kyrie. He also had 5 assists in 30 minutes (could have been 7-8 if the bigs finished). Chuckers don’t accumulate assists like that.
I do agree that his shot selection is more jumper-centric than I anticipated. But, being at the game, you can see that defenses sag off of him when he comes off the pick and roll. Most of the jumpers he takes are the smart shot selection. If he tried to force action at the rim, I think he would be doing worse.
Also, Lillard is shooting 41% from the filed and 29% from 3 pt range. Dion is 45% and 52%. My sense is Dion has probably been the most efficient scoring wing of the rookie class so far. So, again, I am not sure where this idea that he is a chucker comes from. The guy who took me to the game was a Warriors fan, and left the game thinking Dion was the best rookie in the league with Lilard and Davis – was impressed by his vision, patience, and ability to create.
Part of the confusion seems to be that he can make very tough shots. He has an innate ability to get shots off from difficult angles. Sometimes those look like “bad shots,” but the truth is that he can make those shots, and the Cavs need him to take at least a few such shots a game given the lack of offensive talent they have.
Guys guys guys, REEEELLAAAAXXXX. No one is saying this team is doomed and Waiters sucks…We’re just saying that, if you had to pick flaws out, his shot decision would be a big one.
Also, http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/Rookies-121108/nba-rookie-watch-head-class
Also also, frankly, our team isn’t exactly a winner yet. Sure, we could sit here all season saying “We’re one year away! Lets just talk about how good Kyrie looks, and ignore bad games by players!” but frankly, it wouldn’t be much fun for us or you guys. Our goal is to analyze what we see. And last night, we saw Dion shoot 5-15. The only way for him to get better is to…ya know…not shoot that.
Ok, taking out the Clippers game (he hit 7-11 3 pointers. A 36% 3 point shooter in college who hits that many in an early game in his rookie NBA season can safely be called a statistical anomaly) and he’s shooting a little under 40% all together and around 43% on 3s (admittedly, neither is all that bad for a rookie). As for the assists, he’s at a little over 2 for the year. Maybe that will get better as more scoring options join the team. Also, Kobe Bryant (who I also classify as a “chucker,” but probably the best one the league has ever seen) is just under 5 for his career. Obviously, I would be thrilled if Dion turned into a Kobe type player.
It’s not as if I’m pulling these concerns out of thin air. David Thorpe posted his rookie rankings today and was very high on Dion (rated him at No. 2) but he also said this- “If he continues to use the kind of shot selection he is currently employing and still shoots as accurately as he is, then he’ll be the first player his size to ever have done so.” Then he goes on to say that if Waiters doesn’t improve his shot selection and earn more free throws, his ceiling will be Marcus Thornton (a comparison John Hollinger made as well). Marcus Thornton isn’t a bad player; in fact I would love to have him on the Cavs some day. But for being drafted at #4? Let’s just say I hope he lives up to his potential and becomes the Westbrook to Kyrie Irving’s Durant.
Thank you Mallory. That’s all I’ve been trying to say. In fact I posted something to that effect (I even quoted Thorpe’s rookie rankings), but the comment monster ate it.
On Jon Leur: “unathletic white guy” Why does everything have to be black and white? Why not give him some decency by just saying unathletic guy? You certainly wouldn’t classify the African Americans as “unathletic black guy” now would you?
I was at the game too. 4th row by the cavs bench- it sure is nice to be able to stubhub such a ticket 3 hours before game time cheap. Couldn’t do that when lebron was around. I thought waiters looked pretty good- agreed he took some wild shots but he made some. Irving has the strut of a big star, and was proud of taking it to curry but curry would come right back and light Irving up. Thompson did not impress me at all. Never seemed to get a clean shot off and it’s not like David lee is a high flying defender. His block of a wild backward flip layup off the glass for goaltending was comical. Everyone was laughing at him. And of course he can’t shoot foul shots. Samuels seemed pretty polished and reliable on o at least- he’s undersized but in control of his body and the ball around the hoop. I was impress by Barnes. He’s got good size for a sf and knows how to use it, recognizes mismatches and takes advantage, hit a corner 3, rebounded his own miss on an aggressive drive. He doesn’t look that athletic but seemed to get up pretty well. Jack and Landry are so solid off the bench- I can’t figure out how the warriors didnt win by 20
TV63 Out of curiosity, is there something incorrect about calling Leuer an unathletic white guy? I’m pretty sure that entire statement is true.
What is the evidence that he takes bad shots other than your subjective assertions that that is what you perceive? He is shooting 45% from the field, which is substantially higher than any other wing rookie. It may turn out that his FG% plummets, in which case your argument would be supported by, you know, actual objective evidence.
Generally, all good scorers take tough shots during games. They are good scorers precisely because they can make those shots. Saying that he takes some hard shots does not mean he has bad shot selection.
I would also add that, for as much as he controls the ball, he doesn’t shoot all that much. If someone knows of data on FGA per minutes possessing the ball, I would be curious to see that and see how Waiters looks. My guess is he doesn’t shoot all that much, given how much he possesses the ball. But I would curious if that is wrong.
Hey can someone tel me where Waiters is on thorpes top ten
Hot Sauce
This is it exactly. Look at the FG% of the other rookies. Heck look at the FG% of players who are stars now when they were rookies. Dion looks good.
The thing is that Waiters is getting hyper criticized only because no one thought the Cavs were going to take him before the draft. Had he been discussed before the draft more, people would be way more upbeat about him.
He looks good. The other night he and Kyrie were unstoppable. Then one mediocre game and the write-up makes him sound like a crazy gunner type of player.
Daniel Gibson is an unathletic black man. Are you happy now?
As for shot selection, there’s a difference between bad shot, and egregiously bad shots. Late 4th quarter shots where he runs the play clock down by dribbling and then shoots a contested 3 while all his guys are standing in the corners are an egregiously bad shots, or what we used to call a “LeBron specials” It leads to bad floor balance, and usually a transition opportunity for the other team. Dion has had at least one of these in each of the last two games. He also had a couple of other bad shots: long 2s with plenty of time on the shot clock. He’s shot a lot of contested jumpers instead of getting to the basket and drawing fouls or setting up offensive rebound opportunities. He makes a tough shot and then thinks he can keep making them, even though they’re bad shots, and then misses the next two (Kobe is the master of this). He’ll be fine, but you can’t expect us to stay silent on stupid decisions. But he’s a rookie.
TT was a mixed bag last night. Some of his defense was atrocious, but so was his offense… At least he rebounded. And… he led the team in +/-.C.J. Miles stunk on ice. I didn’t agree with Colin’s analysis of Casspi. Yeah, he had one bad shot, but he had 5 boards in 10 minutes, and the team was +7 with him on the floor. Miles had 1 board in 17 minutes. Casspi’s team wasn’t looking for him, and he didn’t get much opportunity. I dare say he could’ve played the stretch 4 role better than Leuer who was horrific on defense and didn’t rebound.
Leuer’s most comical defensive play? Hedging the left wing pick and roll and then turning his back on the ball handler who was right beside him, basically giving his own guard an additional screen to go through.
Gee had some great plays and some terrible plays on offense and defense. He was trick or treat when he put the ball on the floor, and the spectacular layups he had were counterbalanced by the bad turnovers he had. One is forced to wonder, “why don’t we post Gee up sometimes?”
The game pretty much illustrated the difference between the Cavs and a well put together team. When the Warriors go to the bench, Karl Landry and Jarret Jack come in. When the Cavs go to the bench Gibson (who played this to a wash) and Jon Leuer come in.
Player A: Takes .57 shots per minute, shoots 46% from field 44% from deep.
Player B: Takes .45 shots per minute, shoots 45% from field, 52% from deep.
Player A is described as “carving up” defenses and Player B is described as having “bad shot selection.”
@Nate – Again, you provide no objective evidence. Pointing out individual shots tells us nothing. Every player in the league takes bad shots occasionally. To say someone has generally bad shot selection requires broad evidence. I have yet to see any.
Again, Dion may just be hot right now, and his FG% may fall off a cliff. If it does, I will be concerned. But the dude is highly efficient right now (especially for a rookie who has to handle the ball and create a lot). If he shoots at these rates all year, we should be dancing in the streets.
Guys, it’s 5 games into the season. During Waiters’ crazy shooting game, it felt like some of those shots were chuckers that went in despite poor decision making. The reality is his shooting % will probably trail off (i hope it doesn’t, obviously) and he’ll level out. Which is fine, that’s what happens to rookies – they’re hot one minute and cold the next. All we’re advocating for, or at least point out, is that he could take less contested, smarter shots. And we mean this in relation to a normal NBA player, not other rookies.
YEEEEESH.
A random and unrelated question to the post. Does anyone know the implications for not reaching the salary floor next year? More to the point, the cavs will need to spend some $$ next year and I’m not entirely sure how they plan on doing so.
I believe teams are fined for not reaching the salary floor.
As far as how the Cavs plan to spend money, I’d like them to go after Paul Milsap. Of course, if TT develops his offensive game, I’d reconsider. However, if he doesn’t, Milsap would make sense. He can score around the basket and can hit a midrange jumper. He’s a little shorter than most PFs, but he’s big enough to play in the post. He’s also a capable rebounder and defender. He won’t be cheap though. He already turned down 3 yr and 25 mil from Utah.
Milsap is also on the older side of what we’d probably want to spend. I love him as a player, but he’s at his peak right now, meaning he’ll be on the decline when Kyrie and co hit theirs. I’d rather way overpay for young talent than moderately overpay older.
Any player who can shoot is going to take some dumb shots. I didn’t say that Waiters had bad shot selection in general. In fact, the best shot he’s taken all year was when he went 1 on 3 off a rebound in the Clippers game and scored a layup by bodying Paul on a right side drive. It was the perfect mix, of timing, execution and aggression. Waiters has a lot of “no-no-no-YES!” shots, and as long as they go in and aren’t compromising the floor balance, I’m ok with them. I just especially cringe when he takes “LeBron Specials,” but I was traumatized when I was younger and they scare me.
Guys – shot selection is the easier thing ever to fix. You just stop doing it. It’s like – today I’m not going to double knot my shoe. It’s not some curse you are stuck with. A lot of it is a product of your teammates anyway. The only reason we didn’t crap out our own limbs over Anthony Parker’s shot selection is that we remembered he only took good shots when he had LeBron feeding him.
Waiters doesn’t have the tunnel vision look. In that game where he started raining 3s from the heavens….I was conditioned to see him pull up from a few feet deeper on each one. Remember this? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyd4NPvzKQg And LeBron’s not even a chucker. But he did have tendencies to start firing off “LeBron Specials”. Waiters doesn’t strike me that way. I agree with Sauce that he’s not forcing things to the hoop which isn’t a bad thing. It took Derek Rose a long time to learn how to draw fouls. It can take time. What you want to look for in a guy like Waiters is this. How does he look amongst NBA talent. In Wade’s first year he was a little out of control and not very efficient at times and he had a big lean in his jumper – but there were times when he was the most explosive guy on the floor. I see that in Waiters. If he starts making 5/15 games the norm I’ll start worrying about what it is that is keeping him from a higher percentage. But right now it’s not athleticism or a broken shot – it’s that he’s taking a lot of deep jumpers because they are clogging the lane and he needs to bail out a team that really only has 1 guy that can put the ball on the floor and create.
@Mallory
Milsap is only 27 and is in his 6th season. Do you really think he’ll be declining over the next couple of years?
Looking at the list of free agents for after this season, there’s not too many I’d put above Milsap. I think his skills would blend perfectly with Kyrie. Now if they could land D. Howard or Bynum (provided his knees are fine)…well, then of course they should.
http://www.hoopsworld.com/2013-nba-free-agents/
@Hot Sauce- You claim you want subjective analysis, but then ignore it when people put it in front of you. You’re also ignoring context. His 7-11 from 3 last night is clearly an anomaly. He shot 36% from 3 in college. Maybe someday he’ll shoot well from 3, but history tells us that typically, the 3 pointer does not translate so well from college to a player’s pro rookie season. The most shots he’s taken? Long 2s, which we all know is a highly inefficent shot. He’s also taken 50 jumpshots compared to 12 layups and 3 dunks. Now I’ll give you one thing- another possibly anomaly is that he’s taken 15 shots at the rim but only made 6. Hopefully there will be a regression to the mean on this one and he can get more confidence in his drives. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/waitedi01/shooting/2013/
Also, once again, what Mallory said. If Dion keeps this up, great. But typically long 2s and 3s from a guy who in college didn’t exhibit a great jump shot don’t last forever.
Shoot, my bad, it was the Clippers game when he went 7-11 on 3s.
Shoot, I also meant objective analysis instead of subjective. Me speak so good today.
Wow. Thanks for that Jimbo. Early analysis: decent at long jumpers and 3s: much better pulling up from the right side, tough more prolific on the left. Mid range shots (3-15 feet) are his worst, though it’s a small sample size. at just 2/7. Also, the chart doesn’t show where he was shooting that led to free throws. What’s really scary about this is how well he’s shooting with even a few LeBron Specials thrown in, and how much time was on shot clock. Great stuff.
I’m convinced that everything Waiters does this year is going to be view from a negative perspective first only because people were convinced that he was a “reach” in the draft.
I’d rather have Al Jesserson. TT and Millsap and Andy would be redundant.
@Jimbo: Now that is some real analysis! I appreciate the link. And I agree that IF his percentage on the J’s starts to fall and he continues to not go to the rim, then we will have a big problem.
From what I have seen so far, I think his early shot pattern is driven by the fact that when he comes of pick and rolls, the Defense usually gives him space for the Jumper and sags towards the paint to protect the rim. I have been impressed that he has shown the patience to not charge into a clogged lane. By demonstrating he can make jumpers, he will soften the D and make it more likely he can get to the rim. This is why I am surprised that people think he is taking bad shots – I find that he is showing a lot of patience.
@Nate- Good stuff on your part too. Your analysis from that info was much better.
@Cols- I can’t speak for anyone else, but I get the sense that everyone around here is pretty willing to give Dion a chance. What else can we do?
@Hot Sauce- Hopefully you’re right. Starting to sound like a broken record, but 5 games is a small sample size. If he finds ways to attack like he did in college and his jump shot doesn’t fall off a cliff, I imagine defenses will start to treat him like a “pick your poison” player. Hopefully the “regression to the mean” on his at rim percentage occurs before other teams start daring him to shoot all the time.
Read Hollinger’s chat wrap today. Chris Wright (from UD) and Derrick Brown (Hetrick’s boy) are both unsigned. Hope the Cavs scouts are looking at those guys. We could use an upgrade at backup SF.
Lol, the Cavs could use an upgrade at SF period.
“I would say he carved the Warriors’ defense up, but the Warriors’ defense is rather like pork shoulder that’s been braising for twelve hours.”
Hahaha that’s good