There’s a Jewish deli about a mile and a half from my apartment that I can still walk to because the sidewalks are snowless, and the maple tree outside my kitchen window doesn’t quite yet resemble a cluster of black spider legs. It’s too early to worry about Tristan Thompson, but then I divide my activities into two discrete categories: Things I Do While Worrying About Tristan Thompson and Things I Do Before Going Back To Worrying About Tristan Thompson. I was hoping to allocate more time toward the latter category this year, but a mere four games into the season here I am collecting shed cat fur on the bottom of my bare feet as I wander circuitously through my apartment trying to make sense of the lanky Canadian with a broad smile and a flat jumper.
I’m not concerned that Tristan Thompson doesn’t look like a second-season phenom. If developing into a great player is indeed “putting it all together,” TT is is possession of too many disparate talents to assemble them all in one offseason. I didn’t expect him to show up this season with a Rasheed Wallace-like 15-footer and a coach’s understanding of defensive positioning. What concerns me is that it appears he hasn’t added anything but an additional fifteen pounds on his frame. He still rebounds well, defends just okay, and is intermittently painful to watch on the offensive end. There’s not a facet of his game that I can discern as markedly improved.
Further concern: he supposedly worked extremely hard in the offseason. Whenever coaches were asked in training camp who was the most committed to getting better over the summer, and who would impress in 2012-13, they invariably named Thompson. After four games (one good, three pretty dreadful), I can’t tell what he worked on. He’s still a step slow on defensive rotations, still tries to block shots he has no chance of affecting, still reads five pages of Faulkner aloud between receiving a pass and attempting a shot.
We can contrast him (sort of unfairly) with Blake Griffin, who thoroughly outplayed him Monday night. Griffin doesn’t always do this, but when he caught the ball last night, he was instinctive. On the perimeter, he either set himself and took a jumper or swung the ball to the wing. In the paint, he put a move on his defender or kicked the ball back out to the perimeter. He didn’t, as he is sometimes wont to do, dribble through his legs 16 feet from the basket or jab step repeatedly like a broken choreography robot. Griffin was decisive, which makes him difficult to guard he’s so much quicker and stronger than a lot of the players that try to check him. If he moves swiftly, chances are high that his defender lacks the athleticism to stay in front of him, and they’re forced either to foul or allow a high-percentage shot.
All we have to fall back on with Tristan Thompson is how athletic he is, but you wouldn’t know it from watching him on the offensive end. He almost never catches his defender off-guard—despite, most of the time, being a superior athlete—because when he receives the ball, he often brings it to his hip in order to gather himself before going up for a shot attempt. This is an open invitation for guards to collapse from the perimeter and attempt to knock the ball free, and it allows the big man guarding him time to position his body or attempt a block. How often do you see TT hunched over in the post, trying to get a shot up with a big man standing over him, and a wing trying to slap the ball out of his hands? Thompson might be “quick” in the sense that he’s more agile than most power forwards, and he can probably jump over impressive-looking stacks of crates, but his slow mechanics negate his athleticism, unlike Griffin, who on his best day exploits the athleticism gap between himself and his opponent.
On the defensive end, TT’s problem lies chiefly in poor positioning. There has been some backlash against the league’s best shot blocker, Serge Ibaka, recently. He’s frequently out of position on defense because he: a.) goes out of his way to pad his blocking stats by needlessly chasing down shooters and b.) doesn’t yet fully understand the whole five-players-on-a-string principle that guides the NBA’s best defenses. Sounds something like Thompson, right? But the things that redeems Ibaka are that he’s even more of a physical freak than TT, and that he seems to be a preternaturally gifted shot-blocker. When we see Thompson’s 35-inch vertical, we daydream about a guy who can average three blocks per game, but blocking shots has never been his forté nor do I think any coach has ever told him his primary role on defense should be helping into the lane and attempting to alter the shots of penetrating guards. He has neither a shot-blocker’s instincts nor a shot-blocker’s training. It’s something he needs to learn how to do.
You can read the tea leaves as to whether this is a good or a bad sign for Thompson’s defensive prospects. On the one hand, he might improve as a shot-blocker because he’s still new to that role, and on the other, he doesn’t seem to have the same knack for blocking and altering shots that the Serge Ibakas and DeAndre Jordans of the world possess. His sense of where he is on the floor and where he needs to be at any given time in a defensive set will likely improve, if only because I think Byron Scott will have him deported if he doesn’t. Plus, for whatever reason, learning the workings of effective NBA defense usually takes players a long time. Even great defenders usually spend their first few years in the league learning from frequent mistakes.
* * * * *
I went to the release party for the Onion’s Book of Known Knowledge a few weeks ago and left at intermission. One of my favorite comics, Dan Telfer, was performing at the end of the night, but I had been battling a sense of displacement all day. I hadn’t meant to come alone, but I spent the hour and a half before the show flipping through a copy of The Reader with my head down at a table in a secluded corner of the overcrowded bar. I wandered around Lincoln Park for about forty-five minutes before the warm rain soaked me. I hopped a train north. There has been a lot of construction on the red line over the past few months because the many of the stations have 30-year-old wood platforms and reek of piss. The new ones aren’t much better. They’re very bright and their floors recall a vehicle showroom from the ’70s. I had probably ruined my own night. You can only see so far when you’re inspecting the floor and the city is painting over its mold.
I don’t think Tristan Thompson will excel or even be particularly good. There are more objective reasons for concern delineated above, but my fears for him are like bacteria procreating in a petri dish. They need no fuel or host. From the moment the Cavs passed on Jonas Valančiūnas to draft a player I was unprepared for them to draft, TT’s been a vessel for my anxiety. He’s a foundling, and I resent him in a way that’s wholly unfair. I’m strung too tight: the Cavs have to do everything perfectly in order to build a contender, and that includes not picking someone who might kind of suck with the fourth pick in the draft. It’s not Tristan’s fault. He’s onstage, and I’m in the rain muttering to myself. It’s hard to dream when you’re inspecting the floor and your team is painting over its mold.
Yep.
I agree that Tristan Thompson will never be all that good. But what the heck, they nailed the Irving pick and seemingly the Waiters pick. That’s pretty awesome. While yeah, maybe they should’ve drafted someone else, but at least Thompson is going to be useful.
Yeesh, give the team a break. Not every move they make is going to work out perfectly. They are doing a good job evaluating and acquiring talent. Maybe Thompson doesn’t quite work out, it’s OK.
It always seemed last year that after one of these kinds of articles popped up hompson went out and just dominated for one reason or another. If he does really good tonight maybe make this a game day fear article.
It’s only 4 games this season… Let’s give TT a chance in his sophomore season. Most people were upset with Dion Waiters in preseason and the slow start to the season, one game happens, and everything has changed.
Really, some people wanted “Big V” over TT, even right now? TT may have also gotten dunked on by Durant, but he would have at least put a decent body on him…
http://hoopshype.com/videos/thelighterside/kevin-durant-dunks-on-jonas-valanciunas
He might get extra minutes to prove himself, as Zeller is out indefinitely with a concussion and a broken face. I hope it doesn’t mean more Luke Walton. I would like to see Leuer get some burn though.
@Cols714 It’s not just “OK” if Thompson doesn’t pan out. He was the 4th pick in the 1st round, a huge investment for a team that doesn’t have players to spare. Now that Antawn Jamison is gone, the Cavs desperately need someone to perform at power forward and keep their slim payoff hopes alive. If Thompson can’t be consistent, who will replace him? Samardo Samuels? Thompson must step his game up or this season will be a long one.
Yes, it’s OK if Thompson if just an OK guy rather than a star. Teams, other than OKC, don’t ever hit completely on draft picks. Even high draft picks. If the Cavs hit superstar in Irving, star in Waiters, and decent player in Thompson, that’s a great draft record. So yes, it’s OK. There will be other drafts and FA signings and such to complete the team.
I agree that Thompson doesn’t have to be a star. He needs to be a solid starter who can board and defend the paint. He’s never going to be Blake Griffin. Bigs usually take longer to develop and Tristan was crazy raw. I’m still for them drafting the best overall player next year rather than for need. That could be McAdoo.
Nice Post Colin, I echo your nervousness, but Ive decided that drafting Deon Waiters is like having children. Once you have kids, you wouldn’t trade anything else in your past that led you to that point, because changing the past would change your kids, and no one who truly loves their kids, or St. Weirdo would undistill history to change that love.
@Wes. This is a two fold argument 1: we have to realize how incredibly lucky we’ve been in the last two drafts. 1st, we luck into trading Mo Williams for Baron Davis, just because the Clips want to get Davis off the team (the salaries were maybe like 6 million off for the life of the deal). Then the Clips make the mind numbingly stupid decision of not holding out for top five, top three, or #1 protection on the lottery pick. THEN, we hit the jackpot and win the #1 pick with their trade. THEN we get another pick in the top 4 (TT)… Then this year we pick a player who right now looks like the 3rd best guy in the draft at #4 (with Davis and Lillard being #1 and #2), and what looks like an above average starter at #17 (Zeller). We also brought in an undrafted free agent d-leaguer who has turned into a solid starter (Gee). Have a career bench guy suddenly playing like an all-star (Varejao), and have a ridiculous number of picks in the 2013 draft, and the Kings draft pick some time by 2017 (though the way the Kings are put together, we might never get it). So, to have all this happen and hit on 75% of our draft picks? We’re not doing too bad.
2nd. TT is still a work in progress. I don’t think you can judge him that much based on a subpar game against one of the most physical front lines in the league. However, the real question is: Who would we have drafted instead? Of the guys that made sense there for us are Big V, who the accounts say wouldn’t have played here (I’m skeptical on that front) and the washes: Bismack Biyambo, who’s an even bigger project than TT, Jan Vesley (another project), and Alec Burks (not playing any significant minutes),
This leaves 6 players who would’ve been better than TT. Valanciunas, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, Nikola Vucevic, Iman Shumpert, and Kenneth Fareed. We weren’t taking any of the last 3 of that group at #4. Klay Thompson would also have been a reach there. Kawhi Leonard is probably the player we could/should have taken instead, and there was a lot of discussion about it at the time. Would he have developed as well here as he has in San Antonio? Hard to say.
I am not crying over JV because we got Zeller who has a very similar skill set for less money. ZPA’s currently beating him in PER.
The first tier of the 2011 draft was 1 player: KI. The next tier was the rest of the first round. Did we miss at #4? No. Did we reach? Yes. Would the alternative be better? At this point it’s moot. I wouldn’t trade the current group, and if fate had changed our hand and we had ended up with Kawhi Leonard or Valanciunas, there’s a thousand other variables that could’ve made things break a different way, and maybe we’re staring at Terrence Ross right now instead of the infinitely better Waiters. We’re incredibly fortunate, and even if TT never becomes more than a poor Man’s Ben Wallace, we still have a chance to make a run for a trophy…
Of course, ask me how i feel about this after the road trip is over.
i agree that it’s ok to miss on a lottery pick once in a while. where it gets sticky is the fact that virtually all of the draft experts and NBA pundits were ranking valenciunas well above TT on their draft boards and chris grant ignored conventional wisdom and gambled with Thompson. If we took Valenciunas and he ended up being a bust, it would be a different story because, based on the information available at the time, he was thought by most to be the superior player. i’m not saying that TT will be a bust, but if he is, then grant will be and should be held accountable because he didn’t go with the “safer” pick.
the other beef i have with “reach” picks is that if you have #4 pick and you’re targeting a guy who most likely will be taken at #7 or #8, then call up the teams with the 7th and 8th picks and trade down – GET VALUE FOR YOUR #4 PICK!
Yeah and all of those same pundits would have taken Brad Beal over Waiters, but it looks like Waiters is the real deal. I’m not sold on Lillard being better than him either. I think it may turn out that Waiters was the 2nd best player in the draft behind only Davis.
Like I’ve said, missing on Thompson does not matter when you’ve hit the jackpot on 2 out of 3 picks. Especially in the NBA, that’s hard to do.
You are all completely wrong. It is not okay if Thompson does not turn out to be a good player. Chris Grant went out on a giant limb and selected him instead of the Jonas, the player everyone assumed they would take. If you buy into the Hollinger Kool-Aid and go 8 miles against the grain on draft night, you better be right. With the way Kyrie and Dion look this year, we likely only have 1 more year in the lottery. Leaving the lottery is a double edged sword because once you’re out; you can no longer accumulate high potential talent.
Not being right sets the franchise back potentially years, you cannot miss once on a top 5 pick if you want to build a contender. We now have to potentially waste years trying to figure out if we need to cut bait on this guy and draft someone else. Free agents are not coming to Cleveland; we can only build through the draft and trades. If we have to waste a pick or a trade to get a quality PF, that means we aren’t addressing other position. The opportunity cost is tremendous.
The Jonas talk all seems to conveniently ignore the fact that Jonas’ handlers told the Cavs that he wouldn’t come to the team. You can’t even counter with the Rubio outcome where the Cavs spend 2 years waiting for Jonas to play his way out of his Euro deal because a) that greatly stunts the team’s development and ruins their trade leverage with that player and b)This wasn’t Real Madrid or a another high level eastern euro team, Rytas was a smaller squad that’s purportedly funded by shady dealings and a player agent with 3 total clients, none of whom are reliant on the NBA for a check. So while we’re seeing Jonas appear to be an active big (with his own problems finishing in traffic), I would assume we’d rather have TT than be trying to watch streams of Euroleague games. The more likely outcome if the Cavs went with Jonas is that he would play out the string for Rytas this year and have his rights sold for a boatload of cash/favors to a larger Euroleague team.
We all were wary about the Waiters gamble. It showed that Chris Grant would take chances on talent and situations he believes in. Do you think that if the Cavs front office (who still has a great relationship with Z and Herb Rudoy, who are locked in with these types of players/situations) wouldn’t have taken a shot at Jonas if they thought the agent/team would blink?
No one’s quite answered those questions when offering the Jonas red herring.
i heard those same rumors about valenciunas’s camp telling the cavs he wouldn’t play here. personally i think it’s crap. why? because he’s now playing in TORONTO. top picks always go to crappy teams, thats how the lottery works, and the value of their contract is determined in part by where they’re picked – so the idea that Jonas wanted to go later in the draft is both unproven hearsay and financially stupid. i personally think the complication of his existing euro contract and the uncertainty of when he would come to the NBA spooked them, although they say that tristan was higher on their board all along.
WitmI
No, not being right on one pick out of three when you’ve nailed the other three does not set the team back for years. Thompson looks like he will be a useful, but not great player. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that type of draft pick when you’ve hit on two others to a huge extent.
No team is going to draft perfectly. Picking Irving, Waiters, and Thompson gives them 1 great, 1 good who may be great, and one decent player. That’s a great record of drafting.
I don’t disagree with much of the analysis in the article. I agree that Thompson likely won’t be a star, or maybe even an above average talent. But I think he can become a solid contributor, as your energetic/rebounder/garbage bucket type of guy.
In fact, he reminds me of another similar player. A guy who after five years with the Cavs, was in the 28 minute/9 ppg/7 rpg/1 stl/1 blk type of realm….about where TT sits right now, early in his second season.
That other player is Anderson Varejao.
People forget what kind of a train wreck Varejao was when he first started. While a bundle of unbridled energy with good hustle, he didn’t know what to do with a basketball should it have found a way into his hands. He went through bouts of knuckleheadedness that led to long stints on the bench. Cavs fans immediately loved him for two reasons: 1) He had a funny looking mop on his head, and 2) Becuase he was 2nd round pick and a throw-in for Drew Gooden, there were no expectations to begin with. Anything we got from him was upside.
After about half a season of TT last year, I concluded that what we had was a slighly shorter, more athletic Varejao. Does TT have Varejao’s brains and court awareness? That remains to be seen. But he certainly has the work ethic, which I’d say at least half of each year’s draftees don’t. That alone is a valuable skill in today’s NBA.
Now in his prime, in his 9th season with the Cavs, Varejao has figured out how to harness his energy into defensive control, fit into the offensive and defensive schemes of the team, finish a pick and roll, get his FTA over 70%, and even hit the occasional 17-footer. I don’t think that type of career curve is out of line for TT.
So the real difference between them, then, is the expectations based on their method of acquisition. We’re happy that we found that type of production from a trade throw-in. Does that type of career translate into a disappointment for a top-five pick? Maybe. But given the number of outright busts that come from top-five picks, I can’t be too disappointed with that outcome.
So I’ll stay patient with TT, and see what happens.
@grover13
Agreed. Let’s stay patient with TT. The Clippers are not easy to score against in the paint. Let’s see how he does against the Warriors.
If Kyrie and Waiters develop into the scoring combo we think they can, TT will not have to put up big numbers. Defense, rebounding and running the floor will be his main jobs. Yes, he needs work on offense. But if he doesn’t end up scoring as much as some of the other players in his draft class, it doesn’t mean he’s not valuable.
Seriously? Still Jonas lovers on here? Have you watched Jonas? Have ya looked at his box scores? Bitch about TT if you must but the Jonas argument is DEAD. PERIOD.
@grover13
Totally agree that Tristan is a lot like Andy. It was one of the many reasons I thought Andy was moveable. I’ve backed away on that because I don’t think they can get fair value for Andy from a team who would want/need him.
JJ Hickson wasn’t part of the long term plans because he couldn’t hit a jumper or defend the paint. If you give a big a contract he has to be able to do one of them. Tristan will probably develop into a solid paint defender. It’s not the end of the world if he doesn’t become a superstar. There will be a trade coming to Cleveland eventually as other squads are getting strangled by the luxury tax. The Thunder drafted Jeff Green at 5 and moved him later on because he didn’t fit with the team contractwise in the future. It’s still totally possible that Tristan will be moved eventually.
@Teddy,
It wasn’t about going to a good team. It was about going to a team that his agent was comfortable with, that was in a city that a 17 year old Lithuanian who has a team of handlers could adjust, prosper and grow his name in. Toronto is a worlds more metropolitan city than cleveland and the front office there, for better or worse has hung their hat on attracting players who like that environment. The $$ difference in 1 pick on the rookie scale is negligable.
I also reject this notion that Tristan is a poor team defender. He gets caught out of position no moreso than any young post defender. The solid PNR numbers bode really well for him and most of Blake’s numbers from the game against the Clips came late when perimeter defenders gave up WAY too much dribble penetration. The post ups BG scored on mixed in a lot of tough, contested awkward hooks after counter moves. Every team will live with that. BG is one of the top 10 post to mid-post scorers in the league. I think it bodes well that in his rookie year he held 4s to a 14.8 PER and 5′s to a single digit PER. No one comes into the league a fully made defender. Think about how bad Josh Smith was as a defender in years 2-3
I like Chris Grant’s methods — you just HAVE to take risks in the NBA draft. There are always going to be more “sure” prospects, but a young, talent deprived franchise wants to draft the boom-or-bust guy when the difference comes down to fielding a team with multiple A’s versus one full of B’s and C’s. It doesn’t matter if your risks don’t pan out as A’s because anything less is still not bringing home any championships.
Obviously, this philosophy is ideally exercised with a degree of prudence. But the safe picks with lower projected ceilings are for teams already contending or with multiple first round picks. Of course it makes sense to take Kawhi Leonard now, but what did you think happens when an NBA-ready draftee joins a perennial title contender like the Spurs? They just plug him into a well oiled machine and away he goes (note: this is neither my evaluation nor projection of Kawhi’s NBA career).
Tristan Thompson, of course, was a risky draft choice, and while I’d love to see more from him to this point, it’s not even worth stressing over unless after 3 years in the NBA he’s still pulling the same stuff. But even if he marginally improves before hitting his ceiling, I don’t think he was an unsuccessful pick. He’ll at worst be the 5th or 6th best player on the roster and still quite useful. If we disregard draft position and look at the raw results, the Cavs have been arguably the best drafters spanning two seasons. In two years with four 1st round picks we’ve obtained three rotation players and an all-star, at this point in their respective careers. Other teams should be so lucky. Cavs’ outlook is bright!
@ KJ
ummmmm i think jonas looked ok last night against OKC – 18pts, 6rbd, 6-6 from the line. and remind me, how did Tristan do against the clips??
teddy, OKC won that game, handily. Tristan was fine against The Clips on defense, and the team won. The Cavs bigs to outrebounded the Clippers bigs 31 to 17, which is a big win. Tristan is obviously helping Andy. Andy is getting a ton of boards because TT is keeping his guy off the boards on the majority of plays. It’s ridiculous to compare a single game line of JV versus TT, when the Cavs won, and the Raptors lost by 20. TT filled a role that helped the team win. JV was scoring points in a big loss. Should you draft role players with the #4 pick? Probably not, but if you get a guy that can at least play a role, and then expand from that, then you’re doing pretty well.
TT’s rookie year PER was 13.3, which is just above the cutoff for being a good rookie. Rookies with PERs below 13 rarely have good careers. He’s still growing. Also the guy hasn’t even played 82 games yet (so in my book, he’s technically still a rookie). Third year seems to be the big leap year for big men (except for the Unibrow), so I’m expecting steady growth and being patient.
There is some funny logic in some of these comments. TT, after a year and some games deserves time for us to see how his game develops. Jonas, after a couple games, is considered a bust. Dion, after a couple of games is gong to be a star. Let’s all agree that we have reasonable justification to critique TT. Jonas and Dion, let’s wait and see. Also, if TT is a bust and Dion doesn’t pan out…then we are in real trouble.
Look, don’t believe me. Look what professional basketball writer Sam Amico said just today: “By the way, I don’t mean to pick on Jonas Valanciunas, because I think Raptors fans are swell. But…
…well, but I don’t think Valanciunas will be markedly better than Cavs PF Tristan Thompson, ever. That seems to be the big debate, as Thompson was drafted fourth overall in 2011, and Valanciunas one pick later.
I do like Valanciunas’ game. He’ll be solid. But he’s not going to be this 10-time All-Star that some people predicted. ”
And that’s the point. No one called TT a sure-fire ROY candidate and borderline All-Star before he played an NBA game. And no one said TT would be drafted #2 in the last draft like they said Jonas would be. The hype was nuts and so far he is a definite disappointment and considering you had TT for an extra year along with how he fits in with this Cavs team, well, like I said, the debate it over. Period.
Wait, why is the debate over? Because of Sam Amico? Because of TT’s “fit?” I’d rather see debate play out over the year as we gain evidence of Jonas and TT’s respective games over the season.
Whatever, dude. The point about having TT for a year already is clearly lost on you…and yes, those other things too. Move on…
Cols714
He isn’t playing like an OK guy right now though. He’s playing below average; like a bust. If he can change that, he could be an ordinary starter.
There’s a huge difference between “maybe not a star” and “huge liability”. I watch TT receive the ball in the paint and it’s the first time I’m less confident a shot is going through the net than when Larry Hughes or Lucious Harris launched a jumper off the dribble. We could live with these consequences if he had some elite skill. He needs to learn how to translate his physical tools with a sense of the game. Ben Wallace couldn’t catch a cold but he certainly had elite defensive instincts to go along with his comic book physique. TT’s gotta start doing SOMETHING well. Basketball is still a game of roles despite what the Miami Heat would have you believe. Someone compared him to Varejao? What? Varejao has one of the best feels for the game of any player in Cavalier history – and you are comparing him to a guy that takes longer to gather while the clock is running than it took Karl Malone to shoot a free throw.
If TT doesn’t pan out it is really a wasted opportunity. Especially when you consider we had a young jumping bean named JJ Hickson who at least had one elite-level skill – ability to finish. If the value above Hickson (VAH) isn’t positive, then we REALLY wasted that pick.