Just a few links today:
-Windhorst with an article saying that the Cavs are through the tough part of their schedule with flying colors, and that the schedule gets significantly easier from here on out.
-Empty The Bench picks up where Sam Smith left off on the issue of LeBron’s low foul totals. The author uses a chi-square test to determine that there’s virtually no chance that LeBron’s low foul totals are a product of random chance, and goes from there to superstar treatment.
Here’s how the author describes LeBron’s defense:
“[The reason for the low foul totals is] not so obvious with LeBron, considering he’s regularly guarding extremely dynamic players who routinely go to the line, and he’s often banging with the big boys underneath, where a majority of fouls are called.”
I would disagree with this assessment. LeBron doesn’t guard the other team’s best scorer until crunch-time of games, if at all. And he almost never guards big men. In fact, fear of foul trouble is likely one of the major reasons that LeBron logs less minutes at the four than most Cavs fans believe he should. LeBron spends the vast majority of his time defending a non-threat on the perimeter, leaving him free to roam for weak-side blocks or steals.
I wouldn’t say this if I didn’t believe it, but LeBron is rarely involved in contact under the hoop. Most of his blocks are coming from the weak-side with great deal of separation between him and the man he’s blocking. LeBron prefers to use his length and leaping ability to contest shots rather than try to body up, and that’s the biggest reason his foul totals are low.
Also, a commenter pointed out that if foul totals are adjusted on a per-48 minute level, LeBron fouls less than Kevin Durant, Joe Johnson, and Brandon Roy. It certainly seems odd that a player who makes the kind of defensive impact LeBron commits so few fouls, especially since LeBron’s such a physical force. It’s easy to see how someone who doesn’t watch a ton of Cavs games could come to the conclusion that something fishy could be going on. But in my opinion, there are lots of factors other than superstar treatment that explain LeBron’s low foul totals.
-Brett Pollakoff, writing for FanHouse, on the conclusion of last night’s Cavs-Heat game.
-David Berri says LeBron has produced as many wins by himself as the Pacers, Timberwolves, and Nets have as teams.
Sounds ridiculous, but here’s LeBron with a 9-man rotation of players who have produced 0 or less wins this season by Berri’s formula:
C: Zydrunas Ilgauskas (winces)
PF: Al Harrington
SF: LeBron
SG: JR Smith
PG: DJ Augustin
6th Man: Chris Douglas-Roberts (Slightly above 0, but only slightly)
7th: Ronny Turiaf
8th: Mehmet Okur
9th: Jonny Flynn
I think that team would have at least 10 or so wins by this point, don’t you?
-Shaun Powell of NBA.com with an article on LeBron. As commenter BradleyH puts it, “It’s about [LeBron] being The King.”
Alright guys, that’s all for now. Until later.
John, NBA.com has a LeBron article by Shaun Powell that may not have seen. It’s about him being The King.
Added.
That statistical analysis was an absolute joke. It’s an example of someone who doesn’t know statistics using them irresponsibly. Ugh. Stuff like that makes me sick. I actually think Lebron fouls way more than he’s called for, but the statistics that guy uses don’t support that argument at all.
Actually Todd, it is a pretty good use of statistics. It is extraordinarily unlikely that someone could foul so few times. But its also extraordinarily unlikely for someone to be as good as Lebron is at all the other aspects of the game as well. The next conclusion, that he’s better than Bill Russell or getting help from the refs is where the logic falls apart. But that has nothing to do with statistics.
Hey look at that…big Z responsible for 0 wins. Stunning development.
That foul article was complete traveshamockery (as Ben Wallace would put it). I actually commented on it, and here’s what I said:
“OK, I’ll bite.
While I can’t argue with the stats, I do think there is a logical explanation for this.
Most fouls happen on the defensive end, I think we can all agree on that. Well, LeBron usually ends up guarding the worst offensive player on the other team. In other words, the player least inclined to try and attack LeBron. Since most fouls occur when a player attacks the basket, the fact that LeBron hardly guards an “attacker” is obviously going to limit his chances of drawing a foul.
Second, when LeBron is playing defense, he almost never reaches. When you reach, you are more likely to pick up a cheap foul. By avoiding this altogether, LeBron also limits his chances of picking up a cheap foul.
Finally, the majority of LeBron’s “great” defensive plays come on chasedowns and weakside blocks. The weakside block is less likely to draw a foul because the odds of making contact with the shooter are low. However, in the chasedown, LeBron has found a hole in the officiating. For the longest time, officials have all but ignored body contact below the block during a chasedown, I can remember Michael pulling this off on more than one occasion.
In addition to the chasedown loophole, LeBron doesn’t actually amp up his one-on-one defense (typically when he starts guarding the other team’s best player) until late in the fourth quarter. This is also known as the period of time when refs decide to swallow their whistle no matter what so fans can think the “players decided the game.”
Basically, while it may appear troubling that LeBron is getting called for a lack of fouls, and even I’ll admit that less than two is unusual, I think it’s more of LeBron knowing exactly how the game works. We sometimes forget that, in addition to being the most physically gifted player in the league, LeBron is also one of the smartest players out there. He picks up on things like officiating.”
Hey Chip, you are correct. It is unlikely someone could foul so few times. I don’t dispute that. However, as I said, it’s a complete misuse of statistics to attempt to draw that conclusion. You can use statistics to support the conclusion that Lebron gets superstar treatment. In the article, however, the author makes ridiculous statements that are not supported (or weakly support) by the statistical tests he applies.
For instance, he applies the Chi-square test, which assesses the likelihood that the difference or disparity between Lebron’s fouls per game and the average fouls per game would be due to random chance. Not surprisingly, the p-value is incredibly low. However, he then points out that the likelihood is one in a million, and insinuates (titling the section “Less than One in a Million”) that this indicates Lebron is getting star treatment. In fact, there’s a HOST of other variables that could be at work here (who Lebron guards, his position, his freakish speed and athletic ability, experience, all the factors others have noted here) which the author dismisses. At the very least, when you start to isolate these variables, the p-value is going to increase. You actually see this phenomenon in the next set of data, when he looks at a smaller sample of players more similar to Lebron, where the p-value increases to around 5% (this data has its own problems, and might even UNDERestimate the significance, since many of these other players would get modified versions of star treatment, making a difference harder to detect).
The article simply draws too bold of a conclusion from a series of misapplied statistical tests. If you just look at the pure statistics the author provides (Lebron’s average foul rate, how often he fouls out or gets called for multiple fouls), then I completely agree. It does provide some insight into the preferential treatment Lebron is almost certainly getting from officials. In that since, it’s a good use of the statistics. However, the article butchers the application of the statistical tests, which simply do not have the “power” to support his conclusions as boldly as he asserts them.
In summary, nice use of insightful numbers, poor use of statistics “as a vehicle to measure how unlikely.”
I have a (rather-lengthy) response to the “LeBron gets superstar treatment.”
I would love it if Krolik would post it or if anyone would read it. I feel it really sheds some light on some faulty logic in the discussion. It’s too long to really post in the comments section.
I second Todd’s opinion. The guy doesn’t even really know how to interpret a p-value. He should not be running chi-square tests and drawing conclusions from them.
I’d like to see is a regression that controls for height, strength, speed, agility, position, opponent’s PER, etc. Then you could actually test a hypothesis in a specific direction.
Ben, i tried to do something like that, only simpler (and admittedly, cruder)
Most of those variables you mentioned are relative when it comes to expected values in Basketball. Speed and quickness are not the equal etc
However, what I did was I chose some players that I have seen LeBron guard regularly and tried to put them into offensive “bins” based on shot selection. The outliers of the example are Gerald Wallace and Danny Granger. “Crash” Wallace is not going to settle for a jumper over LeBron’s perimeter defense. Unlike Kobe, and other notable defenders, LeBron gives a cushion, he “sags” if you will and relies on length and his vertical to contest shots. Granger is a chucker (no way around it). He, like a Rashard Lewis, is quite comfortable jacking up shots over the outstretched arms of a defender. If LeBron gives him that 3 foot cushion (which he does) he’s never going to put the ball on the floor and try to beat LeBron off the dribble. He’s going to shoot over him.
So we have data showing the shot selections of these players. Close, 2pointers, and 3 pointers.
Let’s assume that few perimeter players are going to try to take LeBron off the dribble. 1.) Because I sure haven’t seen much of it over the years, and 2.) Because he doesn’t get in a defenders space to try and force them INTO driving around him – he gives a cushion. Let’s also assume that should a player decide “screw it, I’m going to the rack”, that there is a high likelihood that 1.) He’ll never get there, because it’s not easy to drive PAST the longest, strongest, fastest player in the nba and 2.) if he does manage to sneak by LeBron, he’s either going to a.) get blocked from behind, b.) draw a foul, c.) be rewarded with an uncontested shot because LeBron concedes a LOT of shots around the hoop, or d.) end up on the ground because Shaq, Andy, and Z have no problems fouling people hard.
Of all those options, how many times is it going to end in LeBron fouling? Not that often. OK, let’s also assume that players like Gerald Wallace that have very unreliable outside shots are probably going to either be reluctant to shoot much (score less points), be ineffective at converting shots (lose efficiency) or both. That’s what we would expect.
Now take a guy like Danny Granger. Someone who against the entire NBA, would rather shoot a 3 off the dribble, than fight his way into the paint. LeBron gives him a 3 foot cushion. What is he going to do? Is LeBron going to foul a jump shooter on the contest? No. Does LeBron even leave his feet that often going “for the bird”? Not really.
So if you make your hypothesis that players that like to settle for outside shots are going to be effected less by LeBron than those that like to work to create a better shot, then you have some data to test against that hypothesis.
I did that, with a small sample size, and it was unable to disprove the hypothesis. Players that my shot selection scheme deemed “settlers” like Granger, Pierce, and Richard Jefferson saw much less drop in production against the Cavs last year than guys like Gerald Wallace, Rudy Gay, and Corey Maggette.
You can read the entire novel here: http://community.foxsports.com/tsunami/blog/2010/01/27/%28dont%29_blow_the_whistle_-_analyzing_lebron_james_lack_of_personal_fouls
This may not have been clear from my last comment. If the above hypothesis is strong, and you recognize the constants that:
1.) LeBron gives that cushion to everyone (watch him guard D Wade on the last play of the game)
2.) LeBron doesn’t foul jump shooters (few good players do)
3.) There are going to be very few instances where LeBron is defending perimeter players in the post (how did they get there?)
4.) LeBron concedes baskets when he is beat
If you agree with these statements (judging by the comments the last 2 days most Cavs fans would) Then it is only logical that LeBron is playing defense without fouling.
Now I would suspect that he is getting superstar treatment if guys like Granger, Pierce, and Richard Jefferson were suffering devastating drops to their shoot percentages when they faced LeBron. In that case, the defense is clearly affecting their efficiency more than normal. To affect the shots of players like Granger that make a living out of jacking up 20 footers, you need physicality, ball denial, ball pressure, traps, and all the things that have a greater chance of leading to fouls.
I have never really observed that, and the splits don’t justify that.
I don’t what all the debate is about. To me it seems simple. Does Lebron play defense well without fouling as often as other players? Yes, for many of the reasons listed above. Does Lebron also receive singularly special treatment from the refs on both ends of the floor? Yes, undoubtably. What’s all the arguing about?
Tsunami … thorough analysis. You show what can be done with statistics when you engage them in ways they’re meant and don’t use them as cover for an anecdotal opinion.
Your point about LeBron giving up when he gets beat is salient as well. LeBron makes the rational decision that he’d rather give up two points than risk having to ride the bench because he’s in foul trouble. Does this mean he’s getting superstar treatment, or just making good use of his rather robust basketball IQ?
Jonathan, I 100% concur with your post (it’s likely a little column A, little column B). The argument, or objection, is that the author of the article uses statistical analysis (improperly) to make the claim that it’s almost entirely Column A.
To all of the above: The fact that you guys are saying lebron rarely fouls when going for the ‘weakside block’ is a bogus statement. In fact, some highlights that i’m sure you guys have seen are lebron blocking j-rich’s 360 attempt last year, where he didn’t even touch the ball. He smacked the hell outta j-rich’s hand, and no foul call. Obviously the ref’s hold their whistle anytime lebron does this move, i live in ohio and have seen many games where lebron just fouls the guy and there’s never any whistle.
Anyone see the hawks-cavs playoff series last year as well? Lebron went for the ‘weak-side block’ on Josh Smith and once again, hit all hand, didn’t even touch the ball. Was there a foul call?? Nope, the ref’s called it a clean block, infuriating Josh Smith which lead to him receiving a tech. Is there a reason why players like Smith, Howard, and J-rich called out lebron saying he get’s all the calls?? Of course, because I’ve never seen an nba player get away with as many travels, double dribbles, and fouls in my life. If you thought the jordan rules was done, the lebron rules are 10x worse. How many times at the end of games does lebron receive a ticky-tacky foul and goes to the line. Look at the Heat-Cavs game at the end, lebron received the foul call barely being touched. Superstar treatment to the extreme?? HELL YES, anyone who says otherwise can’t be playing basketball seriously.
kudos … I guess you never heard that the hand is part of the ball. Good job thinking of two instances where LeBron fouled and extrapolating from there. Your logic is as indomitable as your whining.
Yea, at the end of the Heat-Cavs game, Lebron totally got the superstar treatment, especially when you consider that he technically shouldn’t have even needed to go to the line because Wade grabbed the rim, which is goaltending.
I was actually taking Kudos seriously till the last part. LeBron barely got touched at the end? Wade fouled him on purpose guy. Good night.
BTW what does that “I live in Ohio” comment have to do with anything? Does living in Ohio make you more qualified to assess LeBron and the foul/no-calls? I dunno.
Oh, and let me correct myself. Richardson fouled him on purpose, not Wade (not that thats the point).
Let me put to rest this whole “LeBron travels more than any player in the league.” No. Only if you don’t know the game and don’t watch it closely. LeBron, like every player, gets away with traveling. But let me say, that in both the NBA and college the post-up player, whether its a center or PF, walks ALL THE TIME. Watch a guy like Bynum, or Howard, or some other post up player that regulary recieves the ball with his back to the basket. now, watch how many times he either switches his pivot-foot, or just flat out lifts it up.
I remember watching Bob Knight break down film last year on just this. It was Hansborough in the post (UNC days) and it was a game that I happened to watch. Hansborough makes a move that to me looked completely legit. Well, the master saw it for what it was. When broken down in slow-mo, he lifted his pivot multiple times and ended up taking a total of 5 steps. Now that I’ve started looking for it, it happens ALL the time. Post players will end up taking 5-6 steps even though it usually just seems like 2. So, enough of this LeBron traveling stuff. Post players, all of them, travel just about everytime they get the ball in the paint, it’s just harder to see.