Links To The Present: January 26th, 2010
2010-01-26
Just a few links today:
–Windhorst with an article saying that the Cavs are through the tough part of their schedule with flying colors, and that the schedule gets significantly easier from here on out.
-Empty The Bench picks up where Sam Smith left off on the issue of LeBron’s low foul totals. The author uses a chi-square test to determine that there’s virtually no chance that LeBron’s low foul totals are a product of random chance, and goes from there to superstar treatment.
Here’s how the author describes LeBron’s defense:
“[The reason for the low foul totals is] not so obvious with LeBron, considering he’s regularly guarding extremely dynamic players who routinely go to the line, and he’s often banging with the big boys underneath, where a majority of fouls are called.”
I would disagree with this assessment. LeBron doesn’t guard the other team’s best scorer until crunch-time of games, if at all. And he almost never guards big men. In fact, fear of foul trouble is likely one of the major reasons that LeBron logs less minutes at the four than most Cavs fans believe he should. LeBron spends the vast majority of his time defending a non-threat on the perimeter, leaving him free to roam for weak-side blocks or steals.
I wouldn’t say this if I didn’t believe it, but LeBron is rarely involved in contact under the hoop. Most of his blocks are coming from the weak-side with great deal of separation between him and the man he’s blocking. LeBron prefers to use his length and leaping ability to contest shots rather than try to body up, and that’s the biggest reason his foul totals are low.
Also, a commenter pointed out that if foul totals are adjusted on a per-48 minute level, LeBron fouls less than Kevin Durant, Joe Johnson, and Brandon Roy. It certainly seems odd that a player who makes the kind of defensive impact LeBron commits so few fouls, especially since LeBron’s such a physical force. It’s easy to see how someone who doesn’t watch a ton of Cavs games could come to the conclusion that something fishy could be going on. But in my opinion, there are lots of factors other than superstar treatment that explain LeBron’s low foul totals.
-Brett Pollakoff, writing for FanHouse, on the conclusion of last night’s Cavs-Heat game.
-David Berri says LeBron has produced as many wins by himself as the Pacers, Timberwolves, and Nets have as teams.
Sounds ridiculous, but here’s LeBron with a 9-man rotation of players who have produced 0 or less wins this season by Berri’s formula:
C: Zydrunas Ilgauskas (winces)
PF: Al Harrington
SF: LeBron
SG: JR Smith
PG: DJ Augustin
6th Man: Chris Douglas-Roberts (Slightly above 0, but only slightly)
7th: Ronny Turiaf
8th: Mehmet Okur
9th: Jonny Flynn
I think that team would have at least 10 or so wins by this point, don’t you?
-Shaun Powell of NBA.com with an article on LeBron. As commenter BradleyH puts it, “It’s about [LeBron] being The King.”
Alright guys, that’s all for now. Until later.
Oh, and let me correct myself. Richardson fouled him on purpose, not Wade (not that thats the point). Let me put to rest this whole “LeBron travels more than any player in the league.” No. Only if you don’t know the game and don’t watch it closely. LeBron, like every player, gets away with traveling. But let me say, that in both the NBA and college the post-up player, whether its a center or PF, walks ALL THE TIME. Watch a guy like Bynum, or Howard, or some other post up player that regulary recieves the ball with his back… Read more »
I was actually taking Kudos seriously till the last part. LeBron barely got touched at the end? Wade fouled him on purpose guy. Good night.
BTW what does that “I live in Ohio” comment have to do with anything? Does living in Ohio make you more qualified to assess LeBron and the foul/no-calls? I dunno.
Yea, at the end of the Heat-Cavs game, Lebron totally got the superstar treatment, especially when you consider that he technically shouldn’t have even needed to go to the line because Wade grabbed the rim, which is goaltending.
kudos … I guess you never heard that the hand is part of the ball. Good job thinking of two instances where LeBron fouled and extrapolating from there. Your logic is as indomitable as your whining.
To all of the above: The fact that you guys are saying lebron rarely fouls when going for the ‘weakside block’ is a bogus statement. In fact, some highlights that i’m sure you guys have seen are lebron blocking j-rich’s 360 attempt last year, where he didn’t even touch the ball. He smacked the hell outta j-rich’s hand, and no foul call. Obviously the ref’s hold their whistle anytime lebron does this move, i live in ohio and have seen many games where lebron just fouls the guy and there’s never any whistle. Anyone see the hawks-cavs playoff series last… Read more »
Jonathan, I 100% concur with your post (it’s likely a little column A, little column B). The argument, or objection, is that the author of the article uses statistical analysis (improperly) to make the claim that it’s almost entirely Column A.
Tsunami … thorough analysis. You show what can be done with statistics when you engage them in ways they’re meant and don’t use them as cover for an anecdotal opinion.
Your point about LeBron giving up when he gets beat is salient as well. LeBron makes the rational decision that he’d rather give up two points than risk having to ride the bench because he’s in foul trouble. Does this mean he’s getting superstar treatment, or just making good use of his rather robust basketball IQ?
I don’t what all the debate is about. To me it seems simple. Does Lebron play defense well without fouling as often as other players? Yes, for many of the reasons listed above. Does Lebron also receive singularly special treatment from the refs on both ends of the floor? Yes, undoubtably. What’s all the arguing about?
This may not have been clear from my last comment. If the above hypothesis is strong, and you recognize the constants that: 1.) LeBron gives that cushion to everyone (watch him guard D Wade on the last play of the game) 2.) LeBron doesn’t foul jump shooters (few good players do) 3.) There are going to be very few instances where LeBron is defending perimeter players in the post (how did they get there?) 4.) LeBron concedes baskets when he is beat If you agree with these statements (judging by the comments the last 2 days most Cavs fans would)… Read more »
Ben, i tried to do something like that, only simpler (and admittedly, cruder) Most of those variables you mentioned are relative when it comes to expected values in Basketball. Speed and quickness are not the equal etc However, what I did was I chose some players that I have seen LeBron guard regularly and tried to put them into offensive “bins” based on shot selection. The outliers of the example are Gerald Wallace and Danny Granger. “Crash” Wallace is not going to settle for a jumper over LeBron’s perimeter defense. Unlike Kobe, and other notable defenders, LeBron gives a cushion,… Read more »
I second Todd’s opinion. The guy doesn’t even really know how to interpret a p-value. He should not be running chi-square tests and drawing conclusions from them.
I’d like to see is a regression that controls for height, strength, speed, agility, position, opponent’s PER, etc. Then you could actually test a hypothesis in a specific direction.
I have a (rather-lengthy) response to the “LeBron gets superstar treatment.”
I would love it if Krolik would post it or if anyone would read it. I feel it really sheds some light on some faulty logic in the discussion. It’s too long to really post in the comments section.
Hey Chip, you are correct. It is unlikely someone could foul so few times. I don’t dispute that. However, as I said, it’s a complete misuse of statistics to attempt to draw that conclusion. You can use statistics to support the conclusion that Lebron gets superstar treatment. In the article, however, the author makes ridiculous statements that are not supported (or weakly support) by the statistical tests he applies. For instance, he applies the Chi-square test, which assesses the likelihood that the difference or disparity between Lebron’s fouls per game and the average fouls per game would be due to… Read more »
That foul article was complete traveshamockery (as Ben Wallace would put it). I actually commented on it, and here’s what I said: “OK, I’ll bite. While I can’t argue with the stats, I do think there is a logical explanation for this. Most fouls happen on the defensive end, I think we can all agree on that. Well, LeBron usually ends up guarding the worst offensive player on the other team. In other words, the player least inclined to try and attack LeBron. Since most fouls occur when a player attacks the basket, the fact that LeBron hardly guards an… Read more »
Hey look at that…big Z responsible for 0 wins. Stunning development.
Actually Todd, it is a pretty good use of statistics. It is extraordinarily unlikely that someone could foul so few times. But its also extraordinarily unlikely for someone to be as good as Lebron is at all the other aspects of the game as well. The next conclusion, that he’s better than Bill Russell or getting help from the refs is where the logic falls apart. But that has nothing to do with statistics.
That statistical analysis was an absolute joke. It’s an example of someone who doesn’t know statistics using them irresponsibly. Ugh. Stuff like that makes me sick. I actually think Lebron fouls way more than he’s called for, but the statistics that guy uses don’t support that argument at all.
Added.
John, NBA.com has a LeBron article by Shaun Powell that may not have seen. It’s about him being The King.