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Colin McGowan is the editor in chief of Cavs: The Blog. He has written for Deadspin, The Classical, and ESPN.com. You can contact him at colinsilasmcgowan@gmail.com or on Twitter @cs_mcgowan.
Kevin Hetrick is a contributing editor at Cavs: the Blog. He is a civil engineer who grew up in Northeast Ohio as a fan of the Cavs, Indians, and Browns. He now lives in Indianapolis. His email is hetrick46@gmail.com, and he's on Twitter at @hetrick46.
Tom Pestak is a staff writer at Cavs: the Blog. He's from the west side of Cleveland and lives and (mostly) dies by the success and (mostly) failures of his beloved teams. You can watch his fanaticism during Cavs games @tompestak.
Nate Smith is a staff writer at C:TB who grew up in Anchorage, Alaska, and moved to NE Ohio in 2000. He adopted the Cavs in 2003 and graduated from Kent State in 2009 with a BA in English. He can be contacted at oldseaminer@gmail.com or @oldseaminer on twitter.
Robert Attenweiler is a staff writer at Cavs: The Blog. Originally from OH, he's long made his home in NYC where he writes plays and screenplays (www.disgracedproductions.com) some of which end up being about Ohio, basketball or both. He has also written for The Classical and the blog Raising the Cadavalier. You can contact him at rattenweiler@gmail.com or @cadavalier.
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John Krolik is the editor emeritus of Cavs: The Blog. At present, he is pursuing a law degree at Tulane University. You can contact him at johnkrolik@gmail.com or @johnkrolik.
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Is it too soon to say the Cavs have the best young backcourt in the NBA?
The Cavs could have 5 first and second year players getting 20+ minutes per game and all with above-average PER’s. Has that ever happened before?
I’m rooting for this kid. I wish dopes like Terry Pluto et al wouldn’t have already soured the fans on the kid…
Good article. Kyrie and Dion both need to get (and stay) healthy, and next season should be a lot of fun.
Dion from sp the cave cool
Nathan, with Dion waiters never playing a game in the NBA, it is way way too soon. I think OKC might, just might have us beat with Westbrook and Harden at this point, and washington and a few others might also have a case to make. TT, Kyrie, Zeller, and Dion are 4 players in 1st and second year with the potential to have 15+ PERs, who is the 5th? None that will get 20+ minutes.
I also doubt all 4 of those guys will post 15+ per (here’s looking at your 13.3 Thompson!)
I should of said “best young starting backcourt” … wasn’t thinking about Harden because he’s been coming off the bench, but yeah he’ll be much better than Waiters next year by any reasonable expectation.
My 5th player was Jon Leuer, who had a 15.3 PER in 12 minutes per game last season (he admittedly might not break the 20 minute per game barrier I set next year).
My point really was that no team outside of Oklahoma has ever experienced a youth movement comparable to this. And on top of that, we have Andy manning the middle.
On the topic of the backcourt, though, I get to thinking about where the Cavs stand in the NBA overall. Oklahoma, LA, San Antonio, and Brooklyn have us beat, but does anyone else? That gives the Cavs the 5th best backcourt in the NBA today, assuming Dion is as good as advertised, and the 2nd best backcourt of the future (behind OKC).
Plus, between Andy and Zeller the Cavs have among the best center rotations in the NBA, and between Tristan and Jon Leuer the PF slot should be set for years to come. Now, if just one of our many and varied small forwards brings his A-game next year, the Cavs have a pretty great team…as good as any team in the east outside of Miami, I would argue.
Nathan must be the most positive Cavs fan out there. I thought I was pretty positive, but if half of his predictions are correct, that would be wonderful.
Andy and Zeller being among the best center rotations is a stretch unless Zeller gets very good very quickly, considering I don’t think many would count Andy as a top-5 or even top-10 center in the NBA, realistically. Andy would be a great PF for a team with a bunch of shooters at the 1-3. I don’t know how many other teams would consider Andy a center – he always played PF until Z wore down and was traded.
Jon Leuer and TT? I like that we picked Leuer up, and I like what TT showed us last year, but neither of those two guys would probably pop the top-20 PF’s in the game right now. I think there are some reserves who would be rated higher.
Kyrie is an easy top-5
I’d be happy with Dion as a top-10/15 SGthis year (and improves in the next 2 years)
I could play SF as well as anyone on this team right now – CJ Miles? Gee? I still say Lebron comes back for some Championships when he has his player option
TT was decent as a rookie, but I’d be happy if he were considered a top-15 PF this year
Andy is a PF playing center, who can’t shoot well, but “intangibles” bring him to a top-10 PF/C MAYBE, and Zeller being a top-15 center at the end of this year would be a win for us
Who are all these centers you consider superior to Andy? I see Howard and Bynum, and after them, who? Chandler maybe? I would honestly take Andy over any center in the league outside of Howard and Bynum (although there are some young guys who will probably be better than Andy in a few years). Zeller has low upside, as we’ve all been told repeatedly, but he should be able to come in and produce as well as any other backup center right away.
If Tristan and Leuer both have good (significant improvement) second years, I think the Cavs will be an average team at PF next year. Overall, i think our frontcourt (Andy, Zeller, Tristan, and Leuer) features a great mix of scoring and defense, and the pieces compliment each other well. I really do think this is an above average frontcourt…in the east, I would only give Indiana and Philly an edge among playoff teams next year.
As for the SF slot, the Cavs have stockpiled several guys (Gee, Miles, Casspi, Azubuike) who have some chance of being a solid starting wing in the NBA. Say Gee has a 1 in 5 chance, Miles has a 1 in 5 chance, Casspi has a 1 in 10 chance, and Azubuike has a 1 in 4 chance of being a solid starting wing next year. That gives us a better than 50% chance of having a solid starting wing. I won’t go into details, but if you look at each of these guys there’s potential there…and with 4 chances, probability dictates that at least one will likely exceed expectations.
I may be unrealistically positive, but when you look at the Cavs roster, it’s safe to say that they’ll improve somewhere between moderately and drastically from last year to next year at every single position, on offense and on defense (the only possible quibble would be power forward on offense). No other team can even come close to saying that.
I find it hard to believe that nobody is mentioning a dude named Daniel Gibson, who’s shooting numbers will flourish playing next to two above average ball handlers (Kyrie, Dion). He can finally go back to that stand-in-corner-and-jack-up-open-threes guy we saw a few years back when a certain gold medallist was a part of the team.
Nathan, Chandler is not even close to a maybe, and Love is as much a center as andy, and certainly better. Then there are guys like Roy Hibbert, Pau Gasol, Demarcus Cousins, Marcin Gortat, Andrew Bogut and Tiago Splitter who all have very good cases to be made to be better players than Andy this year. Andy does have a lot of hustle and intangibles, but a lot of the guys listed above have intangibles too, and a lot of them just put up a whole lot better tangible stuff as well.
I like Andy, and think he’s clearly an above average player, but lets not go pretending he’s really that close to elite. None of our frontcourt players are good scorers, unless you see Leuer or Zeller coming in and doing better than 90% of people think they will do. Andy is a smart, limited offensive player, not a good scorer, TT was a downright terrible scorer last year, and the other two you would certainly have to go out on a ledge to think are going to be above average (at least next year). I think the frontcourt overall will be above average due to defense and versatility, but add the Knicks, Celtics and Bulls to the list of teams with better front courts in the east.
Nathan, the problem with the SF slot is there aren’t 5 starting gigs to go around and give to the 5 guys who might have what it takes, and not having as many opportunities to get into a rythme and establish themselves hurts all 5 guys ideal chances. They won’t all have the motivation of being the starter, practicing with starters, and getting the in game experience needed to fulfill their potential, so again I think that probability drops it closer to a 35-40% chance to have an average SF rotation. And none of these guys really has much potential to be significantly above average.
I agree that we’ll be a solid team next year, and we’ll beat some great teams, but we’ll also lose to some bad ones and we should be fighting for the playoffs, but will not be anywhere close to a 2 seed. I like your attitude though, it helps balance the board out from the people that think we’re picking in the top 6-8 again next year.
With all due respect Matt…the stand-in-corner-jack-up-open-threes version of Daniel Gibson really hasn’t been seen since his rookie year- even with Lebron on his team. That’s because teams figured out how to play him- get in his face and dare him to drive, because he can’t finish at the hoop.
What you’re left with is an undersized SG who can’t create his own shot. His value is quite limited.
Matt, if Boobie is playing next to Irving and Dion, may god help us, as Dion would have to gaurd 3′s, and Kyrie 2′s in that scenario, not good. Haha but I know what you mean, he should put up better shooting numbers next year now that he’ll hopefully be ball handling less, but its not like we didn’t play ramon a lot while we had him last year and boobie still wasn’t blowing anyone away then either. He is what he is, a good pg defender who can hit open jump shots and 3s and is bad at most other things, and continues to think dribbling is a decent option (its not). Nothing really to get overly excited about though, as I don’t think he’ll be playing with Both Kyrie and Dion at the same time a lot, and he wasn’t hardly ever the primary ball carrier last year while we had ramon, and he only played a month after the trade, so I don’t see much reason he will do a whole lot better than last year.
Matt took the words right out of my mouth. Except for the part about Daniel Gibson being a difference-maker. If he ends up being that way, great, but I’d be fine with 40% from 3-pt and 8 ppg. He’s been injured too frequently and has no size to speak of.
I would rather have 1 solid SF rather than 5 below-average guys. Let’s face it, Gee, Azibuke, Miles, etc are not going to be starters for at least 80% of the teams out there. That says something. There is a reason Gee may be stuck with the tender offer and Phoenix never offered him a multi-year deal for $4M per year like everyone said a few months ago. He’s not that good.
Don’t get me wrong, I hope everything Nathan says will come true, but everything comes off his analysis of being a true “homer”. Nothing wrong with it, but I’ve learned to temper the “homer” in me after being disappointed in Cleveland sports all my childhood and adult life. The exception to this would be the ’07 Cavs who were swept by San Antonio, when we probably didn’t deserve to be there and maybe one of Wedge’s surprise years with the Tribe after their initial rebuilding.
I also figured there was no way the tribe could finish with less than 86 wins or so after their start. Boy, was I wrong.
Chandler is a whole lot less versatile than Andy on offense, and after seeing the olympics, i’m not convinced he’s any better than Andy on defense either. Bogut, again, is much more limited than Andy on offense and is no better defensively. Gasol is a PF, not a center. Cousins is much better than Andy offensively, but much worse defensively. He also plays for the Kings. He’s one of the players in the “he’ll be better than Andy in a few years” category for me. You got me with Gortat…he’s probably better than Andy overall, but he plays for a non-factor team out west. Splitter…I don’t know enough about him to really say for sure. I did think Andy played better in the Olympics, though, watching them side by side.
As for the SF’s, i really do think one of them will prove himself this season. they’re all capable of shooting the 3 (all over 33% for their careers), Azubuike was a 20-PER player pre-injury, CJ Miles has shown flashes of elite scoring ability, Gee has shown potential to become the perfect 3-and-D wing, and Casspi…well, we have 3 SF’s that could be our starter of the future.
A “strength” that I don’t think i’ve mentioned yet is that the Cavs have defense where good teams need defense, and they have offense where good teams need offense. The Cav’s best scorers and creaters are on the perimeter, allowing a lot of freedom on offense compared to if they had offensively skilled big men and weak guards. On defense, their best players are in the middle, where they can have the most impact on the game. Only a guard can take advantage of a defensive weakness at guard, but players of all positions can take advantage of a weakness in the paint. Furthermore, Andy is probably the best pick and roll defender in the game, so he can cover some of the mistakes our young guards make.
Matt: ANDREW BOGUT? And his 14.92 PER to Andy’s 18.93 last year? Also, Tiago Splitter had a better regular season PER, but was AWFUL in the playoffs, and a big reason SA lost to OKC. I’d take Andy over Splitter any day, and I’m betting Pop would too. Demarcus Cousins is a wash, because what you get with Cousins on offense, you lose on defense. Hibbert’s also a wash. For 7’2″, he’s not the rebounder Andy is. Marc Gasol’s very good, but his numbers aren’t any better than Andy’s. I like Gortat a lot, but he’s probably on par with Andy, as his numbers are inflated from playing with Nash. (If Nash and Varajao could play together, it would be beautiful). Those players biggest ability over Andy right now is their ability to stay healthy. But when they’re on the court, I think only Howard, Bynum, Gasol, Aldridge, Duncan, Bosh, Love, Dirk, Pau, Garnett, and maybe Jefferson (when he’s got his head on) are better big men. I’d put Hibbert, Cousins, Marc Gasol, Favors, Noah, Horford, Gortat, Stoudamire, Chandler, and maybe Monroe (let’s seem him do it again) at the same level. Everyone else is below them (though I’m sure I’m forgetting some people). This certainly puts Varajao in the 10-20 range as far as big men go (centers and PFs). His ability to stay healthy is his biggest limitation.
Seriosuly – Hibbert and Chandler a wash and Gasol not as good as Andy? Do we all watch the same games? I love Andy, but I want to drink some of the kool-aid all these “homers” are drinking.
*blocks cavstheblog comments for 5 days so as not to suffer a brain aneurysm*
Yeah. I do watch the games. Hibbert is great when he tries, but he sleepwalks a lot of his games, and his numbers prove it. Also, he’s not nearly the rebounder he should be.
Chandler is a very good defensive player, and is a better vertical finisher, but Andy is better off the short drive, a better passer, a better rebounder, better at getting steals, and I’d wager a better mid range shooter.
As for Gasol, I didn’t say Andy was better, I said that they were on the same level. Look at the numbers: PER almost identical. Andy is a better rebounder, but Gasol is better as a pure offensive player. I’ll give you that you could rank Marc Gasol ahead of Andy, but I’m not buying it on Hibbert or Chandler.
Anyway, I’m basing these on last years numbers, when Andy was playing the best ball of his career before he got hurt.
Hoops Dog, I was looking at Bogut’s career moreso than the 12 games he played last year. Career wise his stats are better and he’s known as a very good defender who has the size/strength to match up with true centers, where as andy has the footwork to show better on screens. Same could be said for Chandler and to some extent Hibbert (being able to anchor down low, not being a consistently great defender). Intimidating post D in my opinion is more important than perimeter defense, as Miami is the last team in 13+ years without a legitimately intimidating defensive post presence to win a championship, and all it took them was Chris Bosh’s best impersonation of one to date, 1 hall of famer still in his prime, 1 far and away best player in the league, and role players hitting 3′s better than they do in practice.
Individual preferences aside, you agreed with my point that Andy is above average, but not close to elite, in the 10-20 range for big men (i’d just say closer to 20).
Yes the sample sizes are very small for both of us. As for Intimidating post D, it’s really not nearly as important as it used to be, as there’s just not that many true post up centers any more. I’d wager that most coaches would much rather have a Varajao than “pure post defender,” of which only Bogut and Kendrik Perkins come to mind. Varajao is a swiss army knife on defense. He can help and recover, he can trap, he can switch, he can guard the high post and the low post, block a shot or two, slide over and take a charge, and get a steal or two in the passing lane. In the pick and roll NBA, you need a guy like this more than you need a Kendrik Perkins. But i see your point. Argh. I’m jonesing for some basketball.
Andy is best “hedging” big man in the league. Agree, Hoopsdogg! Totally joneseing for some hoops too…
Varejao was 4th in the NBA in rebounds last year, 1st in offensive rebounds, and is of course an elite defensive player. 51% from the field and 11 ppg aren’t great numbers, but if he were an offensive beast too he would be the best center in the league.
Furthermore, I don’t particularly like the idea of having a big man as a main offensive option. In particular, if i had to choose between efficiency and volume, i’d choose efficiency all the way here. I don’t think anyone would disagree that having a strong defensive center and a gifted offensive point guard is much better than having a solid defensive point guard and a great post scorer. It gives the team much more flexibility on both sides of the ball.
Hibbert may be better than him in a year or two, but for now I think it’s safe to say Andy is the 2nd best center in the east among playoff teams (poor Horford). Among all big men on east playoff teams, I would probably bet on him over Bosh, Garnett, or Chandler next season, but that’s just me (poor Josh Smith). Chandler in particular i consider overrated…he doesn’t have the versatility that Andy has on either side of the ball, and he was abysmal in the playoffs and in olympic play.
I don’t think I emphasized this as much as I meant to, so i’ll make it clear now…there are several big men better than or as good as Andy, but surprisingly few of them will be on teams competing for playoff spots in the east.
You had me until you said you’d take him over Bosh and Garnett. Garnett was the 2nd best center in the league last year, and an absolute beast in the playoffs.
After reading this feel good story, it’s obvious that DW is the real deal. Almost as obvious is how Byron Scott’s comparison of Michael Eric to Ibaka diminishes the importance of discussing Varejao’s value.
Don’t get me wrong, I think the Cavs are going in the right direction. After reading an article at hoopsworld about the Western Conference I am despondent over the realization of just how many WC teams are way better than what the Cavs currently are. There might be two or three teams that will not make the playoffs that could be five or six seeds in the East.
Garnett’s efficiency rating was less than 2 points higher Andy’s last season, and at 36, he simply has to be on the decline now, right? Of course, that doesn’t change how well he’s maintained his level of play, especially in the playoffs. I’m basically betting that next season will be the beginning of the end for Garnett. I could be wrong, he could still be elite another year, but he has to fall off at some point. Simply because of his relative youth, I think Varejao is a safer bet next season, even though Garnett was better last season.
As for Bosh, he’s so different from Andy that it’s hard to compare. He’s a much better scorer, but a much weaker rebounder, leading to an identical efficiency rating. It’s obvious who the better defender is, though, so I feel comfortable taking Varejao here.
Garnett was pretty weak in the first half of the abbreviated season, but he was a monster in the second half and the playoffs. He’s also the leader of that team and brings intensity every game. (not that Andy doesn’t or isn’t).