The NBA season never ends; free agency starts today.
I wrote the following post prior to the announcement that Cleveland extended qualifying offers to Semih Erden and Luke Harangody. Why did this happen? In their age 25 and 24 seasons, respectively, managing to see the court in less than half of the outings for a team that proved victorious in one-third of it’s games, while posting sub-replacement level PER; these two men apparently are non-expendable.
Anyways, I’m just bitter because after churning out the following yesterday, now I need to eliminate two players. I was not planning on watching Erden or Harangody in a Cavs jersey again. DJ White and Scott Machado…you never existed to me. Man, I hope Kevin Jones rules. I’m running this regardless…let me know your preferred 2012 free agency strategy and targets.
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Derrick Brown dunks against Detroit
The Cavaliers roster is rounding out nicely; a team relatively full of legitimate NBA players looks likely to take the court next year.
With the incoming rookies, and a recommended pick-up of Gibson’s option, Cleveland owns contracts with 9 players for $33 million. Baron Davis’s amnestied $14.9M still counts towards the required team minimum salary, so almost any combination on six players allows the Cavs to meet their CBA needs. The nine current players are:
- PG = Kyrie Irving
- SG = Dion Waiters, Daniel Gibson
- SF = Omri Casspi, Luke Walton, Kelenna Azubuike
- PF = Anderson Varejao, Tristan Thompson
- C = Tyler Zeller
To fill out a reasonable 2012 – 2013 roster, the following needs exist:
- Back-up and third Point Guard
- Fifth Wing, preferably including some size
- Fourth and Fifth Bigs, preferably another shooter
Since last year, Anthony Parker retired and Antawn Jamison left. The Cavs need to wrestle with other teams’ offers to Alonzo Gee. Let’s tackle that first:
Alonzo Gee - I am of the opinion the team should match most foreseeable offers for Gee; 4 years & $16M sounds about right. Keeping Gee provides continuity benefits – a lot of new faces don the wine & gold next season.
Familiar faces rest at the end of the bench; I say bring one of them back, as rostering eight new players next season seems excessive. As part of summer-league & training camp, a battle ensues. Hypothetically, I’ll say that Samardo Samuels survives as the “Fifth Big”. Luke Harangody, Semih Erden, Manny Harris and Donald Sloan – our time together sadly ends (obviously written yesterday. Erden and Harangody will be back. Also Kevin Jones is onboard, so apparently no Samuels?).
So, I’m looking at four free agents and am not making big splashes. That sounds like front office strategy for the off-season. Chris Grant and company exhibited amazing patience over the last two years, and appear to prefer that for one more off-season. With the 12 guys mentioned above, plus the Boom-Dizzle contract, the Cavs salary obligations approach $55 million. I like the team that is being constructed and think it prudent to give the Irving, Waiters, TT, Zeller group a season to mesh while the franchise evaluates future needs. I go back & forth on this, but again rest on the side of the fence of keeping Varejao. He’s awesome and it will be interesting to watch how he fits with this team, both as a player and a mentor.
If Cleveland signs four free agents to short-term contracts with total 2012 – 2013 salary under $10 million, they enter 2013 – 2014 with $20 – $25 million in cap space. Even assuming the Cavs compete for a play-off berth next year, utilizing their bevy of future draft picks, the team picks twice in the mid-first round of each of the next three drafts. Saving cap flexibility for another season or two, while accumulating young talent, then luring one high-quality free agent to Cleveland immediately before extending the team’s 22-year-old All-Star point guard…well, all that cap space, a competitive team, and the stud PG may be the only bet to lure the premium free agent. That off-season is not this off-season.
With that as intro, here are some favorite “money-ball” free-agent options to make the team competitive next year for cheap.
Back-up Point Guard
Rumors occasionally pop-up about Jonny Flynn, the former sixth-pick with a career 11 PER. To me, bringing aboard a project back-up point guard sounds ill-advised. Despite already being amazing, Kyrie Irving is only twenty years old. No need diverting any developmental coaching from Kyrie. Instead, perhaps a steadying veteran influence proves beneficial.
AJ Price played three seasons for the Indiana Pacers, never fully embraced as their back-up point guard, but accumulating 2200 minutes and a 12 PER. Not an efficient scorer, he creates shots off the pick & roll, while giving solid effort on defense. There’s not much exciting about him, as he turns 26 next season. What he is though, is a tolerable back-up NBA point guard, who spent the last two years on playoff teams. Over the next two seasons, the Cavs likely win 35 – 45 games per year. For two years and $2.5 million total, AJ Price represents a proven, suitable second-string floor general.
3rd point guard
Scott Machado of Iona and Jordan Taylor of Wisconsin recently completed their senior years and went undrafted. I say, try them both out this summer, and give a two year, $1.3 million contract to the more impressive player. Only the first year at $600K is guaranteed.
Tall Wing
Derrick Brown is a restricted free agent that turns twenty-five next season. Defending big shooting guards and small forwards poses issues for Cleveland, as Alonzo Gee’s height matches up poorly with say…Joe Johnson. With career NBA average of 13 points per 36 minutes, on exceedingly-acceptable 55.4% true shooting, Brown serves as a great value pick-up to add size & athleticism. Nearly 6’ – 9” with a huge wingspan; last year he held opponents to a 12.1 PER, while playing over half his minutes at small forward. In addition to coming from Dayton, I like this fit with the current team and would overpay in the short-term (easy for me to say). For two years, what amount makes Brown decide to come home to Ohio, and forces Charlotte to not match? I’ll say 2 years at $3 million per season. For a player that always made league-minimum and is currently wearing that “worst-team-ever-stink”; hopefully that gets signatures on paper.
If unsuccessful there, how about Tracy McGrady for one year and $2.5 milllion? An elite passing wing, over the last two seasons, he averaged 12, 6 & 5 per 36 minutes, while making 37% from deep. With my stated goal of “adding NBA players of value while not committing long-term money”; McGrady fits the bill. His last two contracts, he signed one-year minimum-salary deals. With a doubling of his recent salary, maybe he signs with Cleveland for a year.
Fourth Big-Man
Cleveland signed Kevin Jones of West Virginia to a partially guaranteed contract. He lead the Big East in scoring and rebounding last year, and for the sake of this post, he knocks off Samardo Samuels as fifth big. For the record, I like this singing.
As my money-ball veteran free agent big man, I propose to chase DJ White, also recently of Charlotte. Surely you say “why pilfer multiple players from the worst team in NBA history”? Well, of Charlotte’s total 3.4 win shares last year; Brown and White accumulated over 90%. Last year, White made 43% of his long twos, in-line with his career average. A very respectable mark for a power forward – per minute, he shoots and converts these shots at a frequency equal to Lamarcus Aldridge. Obviously that is the only place they are similar, but White rarely turns the ball over and has a career PER of 15. For 2 years at $1.5 million each, he appears as a good fit for Cleveland, playing fifteen minutes per game at the four when Andy switches to Center.
Summary
For under $6 million a year, and with no contracts beyond 2013 – 2014; I added a suitable back-up point guard, a big & athletic wing, and a floor-stretching power forward. Nearly pristine salary cap flexibilty remains, and a highly adaptable rotation can be formed for any opponent. In this “punting on 2012 free agency, money-ball scenario”, the season-opening roster is:
PG: Kyrie Irving, AJ Price, Scott Machado
Wings: Dion Waiters, Alonzo Gee, Derrick Brown, Omri Casspi, Daniel Gibson, Kelenna Azubuike
Front Court: Anderson Varejao, Tyler Zeller, Tristan Thompson, DJ White, Kevin Jones, Luke Walton
I count the reigning rookie-of-the-year, Anderson Varejao, two highly-regarded first-round picks, plus seven other 26-and-under players that have proven themselves legitimate NBA players in the last two years. It’s not a contender, but is an honest-to-goodness real-NBA team, with no bad-contracts and lots of reason for optimism…for Cleveland Cavaliers fans, that’s a beautiful thing.
Kevin: “Honestly, my bouts of impatience are more based on a cognitive disconnect with the gaming-the-system idea that “you need to be bad to eventually be good”. ”
You are going to get a lot of that from Cavs fans. 1.) This concept of getting too good too fast and not assembling any talent around LeBron is the narrative of the decade. (If I’m being generous I say this is PARTIALLY true) and 2.) The Thunder are all the rage right now and this is what they did.
I’m with you in that I’d like to see some entertaining basketball. It’s hard for basketball to be intrinsicially entertaining without your team winning, and I thought last year was almost perfect. We got a great, exciting, competitive product for about half of the season, got to see some serious “clutch” play, got to see Andy the All-Star just will the Cavs to a bunch of wins, and then it just ended and no one really got too upset because Andy and Kyrie were hurt.
I’m not sure you can replicate that, certainly the Varejao injury was flukey and not likely to happen again.
As a fan, I don’t want the Cavs to add ANY valuable pieces right now that cannot be reasonably considered part of the “when we can legitimately compete” future. I DO believe Varejao fits this description, his age seems ominous but in terms of MINUTES PLAYED he is younger than Kevin Durant. Derrick Brown is certainly in this category. But it makes no sense to overpay middling players that may or may not fit (OJ Mayo) or to add wins that will just be taken away in 2 years. (guys like Jamison/Baron Davis)
The reality is we’ve seen 60 win and 60 loss seasons in the last 4 years. Even if Kyrie continues his ascent and becomes Chris Paul from a production standpoint (I give this a 40% chance of happening) in 2 years and Dion Waiters becomes the next Mitch Richmond (seems more likely that Wade or Stuckey) and TT becomes the next Ben Wallace – that team still needs more talent to compete for a championship. Gee, Boobie, Zeller can be rotation players but I still think the Cavs would need an above average SF. In other words, we are very high on their potential – but even if they meet or exceed their potential, it’s still going to take more talent imo.
Tom,
I don’t know if you read by “Building a Winner” series in February.
On the fourth day (http://www.cavstheblog.com/?p=8045), I discussed some of the last decade’s “too good – too fast” teams. I don’t think Cleveland’s problem was not selecting high in the lottery after drafting Lebron…it’s basically that they missed on EVERY personnel decision for like five straight years. Other than trading for Varejao (a complete afterthought trade), Cleveland butchered every draft pick, every chance at free agency…everything from 2004 through 2009. They also messed up their four 1st round picks in the three drafts prior to Lebron.
In that series of posts, I also looked at the best six teams of 2001 – 2010…none of them relied on a series of lottery picks. For the six franchises; they utilized a TOTAL of 4 top-8 picks of their own, either directly or indirectly (trading a player they picked, http://www.cavstheblog.com/?p=8008).
I don’t want to relive the debates of those posts, but the idea of “Look at OKC; it’s the only way” is boring to me. Cleveland certainly seems to be using that strategy, and I’m not saying it isn’t working…Kyrie was huge, but it feels like playing checkers when you could be playing chess.
Another few random thoughts on the “Thunder strategy”.
1. OKC hasn’t won anything yet, and 2012 – 2013 is their final season before needing to make big decisions on their franchise’s future. Given the new luxury tax; keeping Durant, Westbrook, Harden and Ibaka is very unlikely, unless the latter two are willing to play for a reduced salary.
2. Indiana built the sixth best team in basketball this year, based both on regular season record and playoff results. With the exception of free agent David West, their top seven minutes earners were acquired with picks between 10 and 17. I primarily throw this is in to show that not picking in the top-5 doesn’t mean it’s impossible to find talent. All-star talent is less prevalent, but if a team drafts well, plenty of quality NBA players are unearthed in the draft’s “no man’s land”. Also, while not a premier signing, I’ll note that David West chose to come to the free agent mecca of Indianapolis. Acquisitions like this are certainly something in Cleveland’s possibilities in the 2013, 14, 15 timeframe.
3. I’m rambling, but Indiana is starting to face the same issue as OKC. Roy Hibbert was offered a max contract yesterday. If a team relies too heavily on the draft, the years they keep their core together are before everyone even reaches their primes. By the time everyone’s prime comes, you need to start making really tough decisions about who stays and who goes. I think it’s time for the Cavs to start winning, keep being smarter than everyone else, and quit relying on “let’s suck for one more year” as strategy.
I’ve tried really hard over the last six months to prove their is no cut-and-dry means to build an NBA contender. The OKC model of picking in the top 5 for three straight years is fine, but it doesn’t always work, and there are alternatives.
I agree with you Kevin. I’d love to see every move made as an opportunity to get better as soon as possible, without sacrificing long term financial flexibility. I think the Cavs are a little too scared going the other way. They are so scared of repeating the LeBron fiasco, they don’t want to get too good too quickly, and they are making mistakes by passing up opportunities at good players when they have them.
As far as the Kyrie Irving/Chris Paul debate, I think CP is a bad comparison. KI is his own model. There’s hardly a precedent for a player who has come in and been this good, this quickly at the point guard spot, especially as a shooter. The guys who have done it are all-timers. The question is, how long do you wait to “go for it?”
Also, Kevin, I’d add Boobie to your list of good decisions in the 2004-2009 era. To get a rotation player in the second round, you’ve made a good draft pick. Other than that though, it was awful. Atlanta should be very scared of the Danny Ferry era.
HoopsDogg,
You are correct; I forgot about Boobie – other than that, it was pretty bad though.
The Cavs definitely missed on a lot of picks/moves in the LeBron era, they also managed to win 66 and 61 games. The 66 wins was ESPECIALLY impressive because there was an inflanted value being placed on HCA from the previous year’s playoffs. So CLE, LAL, BOS, ORL especially were ALL gunning for Finals Home Court. And the Cavs, despite many injuries to key rotation players, won 66 games. It’s because they assembled a nice team that fit really well around a superstar and their philosophy matched their personel.
Look at some of the Heat’s moves from 2007-2010: FAs: Chris Quinn, Eddie Jones, Joel Anthony, Penny Hardaway, Smush Parker, Devin Green, Alexander Johnson, Luke Jackson, James Jones, Bobby Jones, Jamal Magloire, Shaun Livingston, Luther Head, Draft: Jason Smith, Daquaen Cook, Michael Beasley, Darnell Jackson, Mario Chalmers, and Marcus Thornton who they traded away for two no-name second round picks. Their trades were AWFUL, my personal favorite being : Traded Michael Doleac, Wayne Simien, Antoine Walker and a 2009 1st round draft pick (Ty Lawson) to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Mark Blount and Ricky Davis.
All we hear about is how awesome the Heat are as an organization from the top down. Arison, Riley, etc etc. This team got FLEECED by the TIMBERWOLVES for God’s sake. They were downright PUTRID in EVERY SINGLE MOVE they made during the prime of D-Wade’s career. And they just won a title because Lebron and Bosh are scared frontrunners, Riley is a snake oil salesman, and Florida doesn’t have a state income tax. They didn’t BUILD a winner by making shrewd moves. They realized their entire team was AWFUL and decided to put all their eggs into the FA 2010 sweepstakes just like all the other teams – they just happened to win it.
So, yeah, it’s hard for me to be too hard on the Cavs since during that time they were doing EVERYTHING to win. A lot of it was desperation, and it backfired. What were they supposed to do, not sign FAs coming off career years and tell Lebron to “be patient”, and “waste your prime while we go through the ‘process’”. They did what they could and spared no expense. And had LeBron played like he just did in the finals we’d have celebrated together in a parade.
I guess all I’m saying is – I feel like the Cavs did it the right way – constantly in WIN NOW mode, and it got us “the decision”. Miami did it THE WRONG WAY and they are now Champions.
So I’ll ask you, Kevin. What would you rather have, a 6-8 seed team that always has a punchers chance, or a couple years of putrid-ness followed by a legit shot at that parade?
As far as the “OKC model is intellectually lazy” argument you keep making. I kind of agree, and yes, they haven’t won anything yet. Has a team with a “moneyball” approach won anything yet? How many World Series has Billy Bean won? How about Daryl “Medina’s own genius” Morey? You’ll notice no one is attacking your post on the same grounds, and I won’t either – because it logically makes sense.
Looking at the last handful of NBA championships and free agency completely and 100% mattered. Heat (their whole team), Dallas (Chandler, Marion, Kidd, Stevenson), Boston (big 3), Heat 2K6 (Shaq, Payton, Walker).
yes there were teams that won with good trades (Lakers, Pistons) and teams that won with mostly drafted players (Spurs, Spurs), but it really helps to have above average FA joining your team.
Compile a list of the top 10 FAs that the Cavs have lured from other teams in the last 30 years. See what you come up with.
Cleveland needs a model – SA, OKC seem pretty alluring.
Tom Pestak,
The Celtics drafted Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins. They traded for Garnett and Allen. No free agents.
Dallas traded for Chandler, Marion and Kidd.
In all cases of the trades, a combination of young talent and expiring contracts were used to acquire these players. I would argue that the Spurs have won at least three championships with a moneyball strategy. They drafted Duncan at #1, but we have Kyrie…the Spurs have plugged in everything else around him with low draft picks, low cost free agents, smart trades, etc.
For clarity, the SA model is not the OKC model. San Antonio drafted Duncan #1 and did not rely on a prolonged run on top draft choices.
Tom, I’m not even sure I understand your position anymore. You say that “looking at the last handful of NBA championships” free agency “completely and 100% mattered,” but then go on to assert that Cleveland should follow the OKC model (presumably make no moves, be in the lottery year-after-year and hope that a young core develops). What, exactly, are you proposing the Cavs do?
Cavs reach out to Ersan Ilyasova [per ESPN rumors]. I hope we get him.
Regarding the Lebron Cavs; I unintentionally exaggerated when I said no good moves from 2004 – 2009. Starting in 2008, they began turning it around, acquired Mo and Delonte and Wallace / Shaq and obviously there were two very enjoyable seasons. Unfortunately, the team had to work very hard undoing all the poor decisions of the first five years of the Lebron era.
I agree the Heat are a horrible example of how to build a team.
I don’t know why my choices are “6 – 8 seed that always has a chance” or “couple years of putrid-ness followed by legit shots at a parade”. Again…I don’t think these are the only options. Dallas and Boston weren’t built with free agency or multiple lottery picks. Garnett didn’t even want to go to Boston (he wanted to play with Nash). Once Boston traded for Ray Allen in 2007 (for the 5th pick, an expiring contract and some young talent), then Garnett accepted the trade to Boston (also for young talent and an expiring contract).
If Kyrie ends up being awesome and alot of their other draftees really good; why isn’t that a reasonable scenario for Cleveland to eventually convince a disgruntled star to accept a trade and come play with an all-star PG and the three or four good leftovers that Cleveland doesn’t need to trade of the eight good players they’ve accumulated? The disgruntled “Garnett” of 2016 could totally except a trade to Cleveland.
Why can’t Cleveland draft a team that pulls off something like the 2004 Pistons?
I just don’t think there’s any point in writing off another losing season as “it’s the only way to win a championship”. It’s not.
This is the point where the Spurs separate from the Hawks. On paper, we look pretty promising. Now, will we overpay for a good talent (Batum/Hibbert) to come to Cleveland to make us the 4th seed and give us a puncher’s chance at a championship? Or will we wait for the last few pieces to fall into our lap to make us legitimate contenders for a title?
The best thing to do is be honest about where this team stands. Most teams make the mistake of thinking that they are one good player away from a title. What they actually are is one star away from a title. They think Roy Hibbert is the missing link when in reality it is a guy on Andrew Bynum’s level that is needed.
What I think we should be looking for this team to have is a superstar, an All-Star, another player at least in the All-Star discussion, and a handful of good role players. I think Kyrie could fill the superstar hole and hopefully Waiters can be a third banana. We’ve also got TT, Zeller, Gee, Boobie (for now), and Andy (for now) that fit in great as complementary pieces. I don’t see any free agent that is good enough to be #2 on this team. Also, any trade we would make right now would deplete our role players, making us essentially the Knicks.
As much as it sucks, we need to be patient. When we’re good, we’ll see it on the court and make our move then. And by good, I mean top 4 in the East, not 7th or 8th.
James A. My point is, it helps to make splashes in free agency and the Cavs have zero history of doing it. Therefore, to offset that handicap, they need to get SUPERSTARS out of the draft and plug in the holes with mid-level exception guys. I do not think they have enough superstar talent yet to start treating FA from “let’s win” perspective. Most of my points were just countering some of Kevin’s claims, I wasn’t trying to assert anything other than “Don’t be so surprised that a lot of Cavs fans are resistant to some of your ideas, Kevin. There are some history lessons that should shed light on the – “suck for more good draft picks” as a viable alternative
@Spots: Boo to Ilyasova! If he signs with the Cavs I will root him on. But the odds are good he’s just one of this year’s “only good in a contract year” guys…
A guy who was getting a 14-ish PER year after year who bumps it up to 20 in a contract year in a shortened season seems way more likely to drop back down to a 15 PER than even staying at 18+…
If we can get him for a bargain price I’m fine with it, but odds are he will be bid up to where it becomes a “boom or bust” contract.
Also, just saw the Cavs waived Manny Harris. Really wish that Danny Green would have played hard for Coach Scott before he got dropped to the D-League for his wake-up call. Would be nice if one of those two guys would have stuck…
Kevin,
I apologize if I’m misunderstanding, but it seems like you’re equating not making any moves in FA to tanking. I don’t believe that is an accurate assessment. Making no move at all can be better than making a bad move. Take Nic Batum for an example. He would be a nice fit on the Cavs. But, would you really want the Cavs to outbid the T-Wolves for him? That would be around 13 mil/yr. He’s not enough to put the team over the top, and if he flops with that contract, you set back the franchise for years.
I think AlexS nailed it with his comment about being honest with where the team stands. The Cavs are not one player away from contention. If they were, I think taking a risk on a big contract makes more sense.
AlexS – nice post. I agree 100%.
Scuzz,
I am kind of equating making a qualifying offer to Luke Harangody as tanking. We’ve gotten way off-base from my article, but I propose several small moves that I think improve the team now. I don’t want the Cavs to spend $50 million on Batum or any other such lunacy. I agree with AlexS’s comment.
My biggest annoyance is the arguments that Cleveland needs another top 5 pick, and that signing Luke Harangody for another year is a means to an end. I’d rather make moves like mentioned in my article and start winning 40 games now, while still maintaining a lot of cap flexibility.
Tom,
There is ONE history lesson that sheds light on the “suck for more good draft picks” alternative.
Will you concede that the Spurs are a money-ball champion?
@AlexS, Tom, others
While I concede that your position has some appeal philosophically, I get frustrated by how much people who take your position seem to gloss over the “waiting for the last few pieces to fall into our lap” part of the plan. The likelihood that the Cavs, or any team for that matter, will find impact players in consecutive years of the draft who, collectively, mature into the core of a championship team is remote. If you pursue this strategy and fail, the team is likely going to be really bad for a long, long time, without even a “puncher’s chance” at a championship.
I agree with Kevin’s approach, but I would go a step further and advocate pursuing young, mid-level free agents like Illyasova, Ryan Anderson or Courtney Lee (assuming that these players are good fits in the system).
As for specific targets I think the Cavs should pursue, in addition to Derrick Brown, I like Jeremy Evans as the “tall wing” who could be had fairly inexpensively. I also would love to get a stretch four like Ilyasova or Anderson because spacing is so important in the NBA. Thoughts?
Great news everyone – Jonny Flynn does NOT want to be a Cavalier!
http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/lakers/post/_/id/31563/source-lakers-on-flynns-list
Rejoice!
Kevin – I partially concede, but not really. If, by Moneyball you mean finds value where others see nothing, then yes I supposed drafting all the “Euro” players was “Moneyball”.
However, this article is about Moneyballing FA – which I don’t think we can say is the main reason for their championships. Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili, the original “big 3″ were all drafted and groomed. And Duncan was the product of an already decent team that tanked.
Now, I partially concede because AFTER the intial Duncan tank the Spurs proceeded to be awesome and created the original “big 3″ out of shrewd drafting. So your point may be, “The Spurs didn’t have to suck first (after the whole Duncan thing) to be awesome” and being analogous “We’re at the point where we don’t need to suck more to eventually get awesome.” My point is that in a vaccum, it’s better to get a top 5 draft pick than not. Tanking is a good strategy in that sense. It means you are better than your winning %, better than your ping pong odds. So you will most likely be rewarded with a better draft pick.
I’m with AlexS. The Cavs need more talent even if all our hopes and dreams for these young pups come true. If any of them fails to meet expectations then they need a LOT more talent. By all means explore free agency. But signing guys like T-Mac just because he’s a decent wing player makes no sense if all you are doing is giving yourself more wins than your future expected value.
Also, Cleveland is DYING to be able to one day celebrate ONE history lesson. One is greater than zero. The Cavs need to build through the draft, and plug holes with things like the mid-level and maybe one big contract. Again I like the Derrick Brown idea.
Tom Pestak,
I’ve derailed this comment thread horribly from my original article. We’re not even that far from being on the same side of this issue, yet I’ve engaged in a knock-down-drag-out brawl.
For some reason, as soon as anyone indicates that losing is good – I freak out. Shades of those ideas arrived in this thread, and I became unnecessarily defensive…considering the issue at hand is signing Luke Harangody for one year at the league minimum.
We’ll see if Cleveland does anything relatively meaningful in free agency this off-season (i.e. along the lines of the 2 year, $5 million deals I mention).
Well we needed something to do today right?!
You make it really hard Kevin Hetrick, you know that? Everytime I read your articles I’m just nodding nodding nodding nodding. So I saw T-Mac, irrationally freaked out, and jumped at the chance to BURY YOU and got myself that much closer to carple tunnel. :)
Yeah we’re on the same page.
I changed my name because I’m going to get KILLED for this and I want to conceal my true identity.
Here is a thought for a SF to offer the league minimum to.
ALEXZANDER PAVLOVIC.
He is a long wing with capable size and speed to defend the SF position.
Ok, that’s all I’ve got…
In all seriousness, the guy showed some promise when he knew what to expect out of playing time. At a certain point, he went weeks where he might not get into a game and has been a complete and utter disaster since then. I believe it is at LEAST 70% mental. How else to explain his FG to FT to 3PFG % ratio??? He has had seasons (albeit few minutes) where he shot better from the field or the 3 point line than he did from the foul line. He has some shifty handle for someone 6’8 yet just poops his pants so often and commits silly turnovers.
I’m advocating for him because he can be had for the league minimum, would fight Casspi for minutes, and if he’s not going to be playing under any pressure in Cleveland (vs old Cleveland, Dallas, Boston). Again he’s a young guy in terms of minutes. Perhaps he could have a Danny Green like career turnaround after getting his head straight.
Secretly I just liked watching him play and figure he’d give us a 1 to 5 ratio of spectacular to spectacularly awful highlights a la Ryan Hollins. And yes, I DID like Ryan Hollins on the Cavs – dude played hard and was at least 15% responsible for our final standings.
Tom P,
There are many more examples of teams tanking and getting stuck in a black hole of terribleness (Kings, Wiz, old Clippers, Warriors, Raptors, etc.) than there are of teams tanking and becoming OKC. The OKC is a myth (as Kevin has discussed in detail previously) whose success is derived from luck more than repeatable strategy.
It is unclear whether the Cavs have enough talent as is. It will depend on what Waiters does, how much growth TT shows, what Zeller’s ceiling is, etc. If it turns out that Waiters is a beast, and TT makes a big leap forward, the Cavs will likely be a pretty good team this year. That is a GOOD thing.
If the Cavs end up in the top 5 again next year it will likely mean that TT did not progress and Waiters and Zellers did nothing special. Yes, we will have another high pick, but we will have a bunch of young pieces that didn’t grow. I would prefer our current pieces grow and we get better.
Can you guys please tell what is wrong with Jonny Flynn? His career had been weakened because he has been hurt but he is a talented, young Point Guard who can learn from Kyrie. I know Kyrie is no 10-year veteran but he knows the game well and can help Flynn with his skills and decision making.
The Spurs model can never be repeated. Their heavy investment in overseas scouting gave them near exclusive access to the Euro talent pool for several years before the league woke up, long enough to get great draft value on Parker, Ginobilli, Scola, Oberto, Splitter etc.
That will never happen again.
I would comment in depth here…but AlexS hit the nail right on the head. Be honest with the team, save your flexibility, and give yourselves time to evaluate talent.
We need to evaluate our talent before we do anything. Hopefully we have some good investments in TT, Zeller, and Waiters.
“Can you guys please tell what is wrong with Jonny Flynn?”
Answer: Everything. Did you not look at the stats somebody posted above? If those don’t convince you, take a gander at what Timberwolves and Rockets fans had to say about him when he was on those teams. I seem to remember one blog describing the typical Flynn possession thusly (and i’m paraphrasing): “There are 2 possible outcomes: he dribbles needlessly for 20 seconds, then either hoists a terrible shot (and misses it) or tries to make an ill-advised pass (and turns it over). I have never in my life seen a player who spends so much time needlessly dribbling at the top of the key with absolutely no plan. I never want to watch him play again.”
@ Pete: Ilyasova is 25 years old. It’s not like he’s been in the league for a long time and just randomly had a good year all of a sudden. Are you going to argue that a player has reached his ceiling BEFORE he even turns 25? He can’t improve on a year-to-year basis?
Good article, and nice to see a realistic yet optimistic story. I like what the Cavs are doing. Let’s be real, certain teams can buy championship potential, such as Boston and Miami. Lakers had a fluke trade to get Gasol which made them contenders. OKC is the popular model, but look at the Bulls. Their 3 key players (Rose, Noah, Deng), all via draft.
This is not a playoff team yet, but at least there is potential. If this core can become a playoff team in 2014, then you reach out to established vets to fill voids. It’s the best a small market team can do, and at least it’s worth the price of a ticket and my time to watch on the tube.
And I’m all for Ilyasova if that rumor is true. No on Flynn.
I really wish that they’d make a run at Nic Batum of Portland. The price might be a little high for the type of player he is (23 year old Shane Battier/Bruce Bowen, and the T-Wolves gave him an offer sheet of 4yr 50mill) but he’d be a great fit along side Waiters and Kyrie. I like Ilyasova, but he plays little to no defense and is very inconsistent- you don’t know what you’ll get from him on a night by night basis.
Also, I’m a Jonny Flynn fan. He’s gotten stuck in some awful situations. Granted, he hasn’t played well, but he’s a hard worker and a great leader, and has really been the victim of bad coaching/coach turnover.
How has he landed in awful situations? He was handed a starting PG job in Minnesota, and went on to post the worst, repeat WORST, statistics of any PG in the entire league.
He is terrible. He can’t shoot, he isn’t a very good ballhandler, he isn’t overly athletic, he plays bad defense, he makes terrible decisions and has a low basketball IQ, and he’s under-sized.
Other than that, he’s wonderful.
Danny Ferry going nuts -
Joe Johnson’s albatross contract for a bunch of expiring contracts*
then Marv Williams for more random detritus
Atlanta native Dwight Howard anyone??
* p.s would we want J Farmar as backup PG for <$2 mill??
Where was this ferry when he was the cavs gm?
@Cranky: Like I said, if the Cavs decide to pursue Ilyasova and can get him for a reasonable price I will be more than happy to root him on. However, it would seem the trend for players who drastically improve in a contract season fall back to earth after picking up that pen and signing that lucrative, bloated contract…
If the Cavs get him he will be better than most of our bench players either way and I’ll be happy to root him on. But remember, Larry Hughes was a 26-year old 22/6/5 guy who had “figured things out” in a contract year before the Cavs signed him to his fat contract.
That being said. If we can get *any* talented player without overpaying, I’m happy. The question is, does Ilyasova garner a contract fitting his last season production, or what he’s most likely going to be worth? If it’s the former I think it’s not worth the risk…
2012-2013 Wish List
Starters
C Anderson Varejao
PF Ersan Ilyasova
SF Alonzo Gee
SG Dion Waiters
PG Kyrie Irving
Bench
C Tyler Zeller
PF Tristan Thompson
SF Omri Casspi
SG Landry Fields
PG Ramon Sessions ( yes, I said it)
^ Now, obviously this is a bit optimistic, hence the name “wish list”, I don’t know if it works cap wise or whatever even, but I do think its possible if it does. If we were able to sign Ilyasova and resign Gee, I believe that the sheer awesomeness of that roster going forward would prove to Fields that we are building something special here, furthermore along with the cap space we have, the Cavs could also offer him a larger role then that he would have in New York, as well as one of the best guard coaches in all of basketball. As for Sessions, from what I could tell last year right before he was traded, he made it very clear that he loved it here and didn’t want to go anywhere. It seems as though his time with the Lakers may be up based on what I’ve gathered. Both sides seem to be looking to move in different directions, and you, him and I all know that he looked his best in a Cavs uniform playing in the 6th man role. I do believe Byron Scotts resume with guards could come into play again if this were to happen, because we, Sessions included, know from prior experience that Scotts ability to coach guards far exceeds that of Mike Browns, who’s forte is defense, opposite of Sessions forte. Although the Cavs have stated they’ll be “frugal” this offseason, this could just be a smoke screen. I love the Derrick Brown thought too, I’d be all for him as our back up sg/sf now that you mention it.