First off, the “Defend Cleveland” show on 91.1 FM will be interviewing me tomorrow (Monday), immediately after their 11 am break. The station is Case Western University’s campus bandwidth; if you are clamoring for more Cavs related draft talk, please tune in, on your radio or online.
Today’s post defines Tier 3 of my Big Board; players whose career spectrum looks like 75th percentile of “one-time all-star”, while 25th percentile equals “starter on a 40-win team”. That range is completely subjective; since eleven players are included – two or three will meet or exceed the top end, while an equal number match or fail to reach the bottom.
Before moving on, I will briefly mention the rumors of Cleveland trading #4 and #24 for Charlotte’s #2 pick. Because of my MKG infatuation, and the apparent likelihood of him sliding to four; it’s not my first-choice draft-day scenario. Grabbing a highly regarded prospect while keeping the other first-rounder sounds great. If the Cavs really prefer Beal however, the value of the respective picks seems very reasonable for the Cavs. Beal possesses great potential, and the stakes for this year’s first pick are high; Cleveland’s management needs to get it right. It will be interesting to see what happens on Thursday.
Now, on to tier 3. A chance of two of these players falling to #24 exists.
Tier 3
- Anthony Davis (tier 1)
- MKG (tier 2)
- Thomas Robinson (tier 2)
- Bradley Beal (tier 2)
- Andre Drummond (tier 2)
- Harrison Barnes – The first tier 3 player starts a run on North Carolina Tar Heels. Possessing great size, solid offensive production and “NBA-combine MVP status”; Barnes offers a lot from a guy that turned 20 last month. Like many though; I have not convinced myself of his rising star. Drawing a firm distinction between Beal and Barnes represents a large reason my Draft Board posts split into tiers.
Dion Waiters gets excited about his draft stock
- Dion Waiters – Ten weeks ago, when Waiters resided in the early-twenties of most mocks, I placed him above Austin Rivers. I should have followed my instincts further though. A lengthy list of positives exists for Waiters: efficient on offense, committed to defense, young, strong & athletic; this diamond in the rough eventually received notice from many. The Sophomore Syracuse Sixth-man shot up draft boards and apparently received a promise in the mid-lottery. I see shades of Russell Westbrook. In May 2008, the UCLA sophomore resided in the mid-first round in most mocks, before rising to the mid-lottery by draft day. Undersized for a wing, not exactly a point guard, but efficient, explosive and a top-notch defender; Oklahoma City snagged him at a surprise #4. Could this be shades of four years ago? Are all the pre-draft Cleveland rumors smoke screens and they made the promise at #4? How would a Kyrie Irving & Russ Westbrook backcourt look? I’m rambling now and do not think this happened, but the thought was fun.
- Tyler Zeller – In May, I forecasted Zeller as a 14 & 8 guy on 56% true shooting. That still stands.
- John Henson – Henson probably never develops a money eighteen-footer or a reliable post game, but destroying opponent pick-and-rolls, swatting weak-stuff as help, rebounding, and finishing strong all help accumulate wins, too.
- Kendall Marshall – Draftexpress’s best-case of Andre Miller and worst-case of Jose Calderon sums up my thoughts on Marshall very well. With fear of being too precise; I think a 10-year NBA stint with accumulated PER between 17.4 and 17.8 sounds right. Basically, a solid and steady career seems imminent.
- Evan Fournier – I’m going out on a limb here; bear with me through another Austin Rivers comparison. Many mock drafts still show the Duke freshman as a lottery pick. Fournier is three months younger than Rivers. His PER in the top French professional league bested Rivers’ mark in the ACC. Without attempting to prove this; French Pro-A is a grown man’s league and at least half of the players in the ACC will someday wish their career reached that level. Athletically the Frenchman and the Dukie prove similar, except Fournier stands three inches taller. A bit of a hunch; I bet the young foreigner proves to be a talented NBA scorer, and he serves as the first of my “tier 3” players that potentially slips to Cleveland.
- Terrence Jones – In a vein similar to Kendall Marshall; I think Jones is a can’t miss, with a relatively low range between “ceiling” and “floor”.
- Jared Sullinger – Did you know that Dejuan Blair missed three games in three NBA seasons after being medically red-flagged by the NBA? Obviously, I am not a doctor and would not know what Sullinger’s x-rays meant even with access to them. That said, what if he was treated the same way the Spurs treated Blair? Basically, he averages 20 minutes a night…no exceptions. Could Sully offer 8 years of above-average PER as a big-body stretch-four? As one of the NCAA’s best rebounders and most-efficient scorers as an underclassmen; I say yes. Sign him up, if he slips to #24, and team doctors think his back handles controlled NBA minutes.
- Meyers Leonard – Really big, surprisingly agile, and producing effectively at a young age; Leonard is worth a dice-roll late in the lottery. As a best case, I envision him approaching the season Roy Hibbert recently posted. On the other hand, a lot of super-sized bigs flopped in the past; Leonard needs to improve his physical and mental toughness to prove world-class.
- Jeremy Lamb – Many pass-off Lamb’s 2012 struggles due to the dysfunction of UConn’s season. I’ve never been in a pro locker-room, but my guess is that the internal dynamics of the average NBA team picking in the top-ten proves approximately 78 times more ridiculous than the Huskies. Last week, I discussed a reasonably likely career for Lamb as statistically similar to Jamal Crawford; a skinny, scoring guard with average shooting efficiency that does not otherwise stuff the box score.
- Perry Jones III – Did you know that Perry Jones once spanned 275 consecutive minutes this season of on-court time between blocked shots? And summing his “Standing Reach plus Max Vert” leaves him third-best of the 150+ draft prospects in Draftexpress’s 2012 database? Also he registered a top-ten-percent three-quarter-court sprint time? How do these three questions make sense in succession? The player whose career outcomes, according to DraftExpress, range from “Rudy Gay meets Josh Smith” to “Yi Jianlian” rounds out tier 3.
That’s it. Tuesday, I’ll move on to my arbitrarily defined Tier 4.
Drafting MKG or Barnes at 4, and Will Barton at 24, sounds a heck of a lot better just than getting Beal at 2, IMO.
Trade idea: Varejao and both second-round picks for both of Boston’s first-rounders (21 and 22).
I love this because I think this draft will have some phenomenal sleepers fall out of the top 20. This trade allows us to have our pick of those guys, so we can address multiple needs and increase our odds of finding that late-first pot of gold–like Ken Faried last year (21), Ryan Anderson (21) and Serge Ibaka (24) in 2008, or Rajon Rondo (21) in 2006, etc.
Starting at 21, most of these guys will be available: Doron Lamb, Quincy Miller, Draymond Green, Royce White, Fab Melo, Arnett Moultrie, Evan Fournier, and possibly even Sullinger, Meyers Leonard, Terrence Jones, or even Perry Jones. That sounds so much better than the second round, where we might have a crack at Will Barton if we’re lucky. Plus it helps strategically to have three picks almost all together.
As a side benefit, we help the Celtics reload for one more shot at thwarting LeBron (not that I personally care about this, but it is definitely a goal of the Cavs organization). And I should think the C’s would prefer that, after just playing a conf finals game 7, to beginning a long hard rebuild with no particularly exciting prospects. Varejao fills their biggest need perfectly, and especially helps them match up with the Heat (they probably don’t have to worry about a team with Dwight Howard in the playoffs).
For people reluctant to trade Varejao: he will only lose his value, as a player and a trade chip, by the time this team could be ready to contend. There are other high-character veterans we can get for the minimum salary, and we won’t be squandering trade value by keeping them around. To win a championship, we need to put everything we have into building up this team’s peak. That means assembling a core now, during Kyrie’s first few seasons. In a few years, his big contract will eat up our cap room, he will play us out of prime draft range, and draft picks won’t develop on a schedule that favors the team anyways. We’ll have a shot at a championship if we draft good players now, and draft our key players to fit with each other and hit their primes together.
I’m all for the Cavs trading, but I would rather see them trade with Portland. At #6 you will ending up with either Barnes, Drummond, or possible Robinson. Any of those players will be fantastic additions to the team. In addition you can use the #11 pick on one of the following: Tyler Zeller, Austin Rivers, Jeremy Lamb, Meyers Leonard. This gives the Cavs two SOLID prospects for two more positions. While I am all for hoping to find a sleeper in the late first round, odds are not in most team’s favors. Those picks mostly rely on luck (Rondo) and great player/coaching match ups to grow the prospect (Ibaka).
I would rather see the Cavs hold strong at #4, then package our #24 pick with our two second rounders and move back up into the 15-18 range and take either Meyers Leonard, Jeremy Lamb (if he slides that far), or another prospect that perhaps fell too far. We have an excellent chance to add two more future stars, just like last year. I don’t want to see the team lose that chance just to trade up for one guy.
I like Robin’s idea, as much as it would pain me to see Varejao go :(
I’ve raved about the greatness of having back-to-back picks and how the Cavs should try to hold onto their pair of 2nd round ones, but this scenario would be a GM’s dream come true… Especially in a loaded draft like this — you like one guy who’s a risk but are torn kinda wanna take another? 21 and 22, boom, take both. Having the 1 and 4 picks in 2011 and 4, 21,22, 24 in 2012 would simply be incredible (assuming no picks turn out to be absolute whiffs).
That being said, I find it hard to imagine the C’s pulling the trigger on this. There’s too much uncertainty in their franchise’s future for them to give up both their 1st round picks. And there’s no way they’d let the Cavs get away with that deal while holding onto #24, at the very least; allowing any team to end up with that many 1st round selections would be highway robbery. The other downside would mean another shitty season in Cavs-land… never want to have a must-win-now mentality, but the whole “losing” thing is getting old, and at some point you want to instill a winning culture within the team.
While I understand the logic in trading Varejao for assets now, how fun would it be to watch Andy and MKG play defense at the same time?
Robin, you are a genius! I love that trade. Andy is my dude and I’d hate to see him go, but the Celtics D would be lock down and we’d have a great chance of hitting a home run late in the first round. Hope Chris Grant reads this blog. And if he does… please draft MKG at #4
I would do that trade, and I don’t like many of the Andy trade scenarios (we’ll need to be contending by 2015 to keep Kyrie, and Andy will still be a good player in 2015, but not much after that) but have 21, 22, and 24 would bode very well for at least getting one andy level replacement for the long haul, maybe even 2, or maybe one rondo type player.
Still, if I’m the celtics their is no way I’m taking that trade. Andy plugs a small whole in sinking ship with 3 hall of fame sized wholes about to drop out. As much as they have loved clinging to their big three (you know, by offering up all sorts of crazy trade rumors), they have to start looking to the future and finding rondo some running partners sooner than later.
Been pouring over the “by the numbers” evaluations on DrafteExpress, and I like a lot of your picks. Evan Fournier has a really intriguing skill set: defense, passing, attacking the basket…
I’d add some people to this list: John Jenkins who will shine when put on a team who knows how to use him as a knock down shooter who can still pump fake and get off a high percentage shot. He’s different from other specialists though, in that his body and the other parts of his game are decent enough that they’ll at least be average, and not a deficiency.
Andrew Nicholson has a tailor made skill set for a stretch four in the NBA. Combine that with a very low risk off the court persona, the ability to block some shots, and a decent post game, he should be at the very least a competent bench player for a good team. I have a hard time thinking he wouldn’t supplant a guy like Splitter in San Antonio.
Damian Lillard shoots, handles, boards, and seems driven enough to have a very good career, despite his lower level of competition. I do think he needs to go to a team that knows how to use him, and Portland would be a very good fit. Sacramento would be a nightmare. He also seems to have top 20% athleticism, and an NBA ready body. I think Mo Williams is not a bad comparison.
Guys that scare me out of the ones you named above: Perry Jones III, and Myers Leonard. They are as Mike D’Antoni said of Boris Diaw, “Just good enough to get us all [the coaching staff] fired.” Andre Drummond is on that list too, but at least everyone knows that going in.
I’ll agree that Andy’s trade value is probably as high as it will get. But Chris Grant should have a plan to replace him before making any trades. Who takes Andy’s spot? Someone they draft at 21 or 22? Fab Melo? Semih Erden? Do they draft Drummond at 4?
If the Cavs are truly looking to move Andy, I would pursue that rumor of Andy and the 24th pick to GSW for #7. However, they should only do that when GSW is on the clock and if Drummond is available. No sense in doing that ahead of time and getting burnt if Portland takes Drummond.
HoopsDogg,
I view Jenkins as a bit too much of a specialist for this tier. Lillard is in my tier 4. I’ll consider your pearls of wisdom as I write that up.
PJ3…I don’t know what to say about him. He was too unique of an athlete to not include at this level.
Meyers…I like his size, athleticism and production for his age. Did you see in DX’s situational statistics that he was the top per possession back-to-the-basket scorer of the 26 big man prospects they looked at? I would not be shocked by his success or failure depending on the situation he’s drafted into and the coaching he receives.
Scuzz,
I agree that if Andy is traded (a big if), it won’t happen until draft night once the Cavs know their guy is there.
People, we gotta remember one thing. NO ONE brings in that many rookies in a season. For that reason there is no way we acquire Boston’s pick. It hampers development when you are trying to develop so many new players at once. I’m not against it personally, but teams dont build through just one draft. No one wants to hear this but I don’t see the Cavs doing anything major. Remember how hard we supposedly tried last year in a “weak” draft?
I see us either trading up to 2 for Beal, which shows the Cavs think he is leaps and bounds above MKG and Barnes, or moving up from 24 to try and get one of Houston’s picks. I really want to pry #7 from GS but I think Andy is still a Cavalier on June 29th.
Lastly, the more I look at the NBA, one thing holds true. You take the best player available unless you already have a SUPERSTAR at the position. I know we want perimeter scoring, but at the end of the day if Thomas Robinson is the best player on the board we need to take him, period. In the NFL you can draft for need but in the NBA when only 5 players are on the court and probably only 3-4 guys who get minutes off the bench, always go best player available.
Scuzz, we aren’t contending next year, so replacing andy isn’t necassary if we trade him. If we could trade Andy for #7 and drummond is gone (or even if he is there, I really don’t like Drummond) then we would still be benefited to draft J. Lamb, Sully, PJ3 or whoever else the Cavs like. Yes, you need a 5 (just ask Miami.. oh wait. haha exception I know, but the 5 isn’t what it once was) but when you are only scrapping to barely make the playoffs with a young team, you don’t need to have every role filled in, and passing on upgrading talent just to keep a balanced roster is foolish. That is what cap space and a couple years of development are for.
Donald, the fact that the NFL has 50 players and the NBA has 8 that play, I would think that would mean making sure the guy you draft gets on the (court/field) is more important in basketball than football, as with football its almost a given. That being the case, it seems like basketball would be more Drafting Based on Position friendly, which it kind of is (we aren’t drafting a pg high this year reagardless, thats 1/5th of the positions. In football the only time you rule out a position at the top of the draft is when you have a stud QB, 1 out of 22 positions, or multiple good starters at the same position, all less likely. That said, if MKG and Beal are off the board at 4, I would suggest the cavs draft Robinson. BPA is the best way to go! and there are still 96 minutes to give Verajoa, TT, and another big, We’d be much better if that guy was Robinson rather than Erden/Samardo/Harangody.
I don’t see the point in making up trades that have zero chance of happening, and then analyzing them with hundreds of words. We are not getting Portland’s picks, and there is NO way Boston is trading both first rounders to us. This makes no sense.
In other news, MKG has slid to 5 in Chad Ford’s latest Mock. It looks like his complete lack of shooting is catching up with him. Teams seem more intrigued by Beal and Barnes as time passes. I think if we hold at #4 and have a choice b/w Barns and MKG we are golden.
Donald, that’s why I’m not opposed to the Cavs moving up to #2 to get Beal. If they feel he is THE #2 guy in this draft, go get him. If not, they’ll obviously stay at 4. I don’t think Craig Brackins, Marquis Daniels, Boris Diaw, Thabo Sefolosha, Austin Daye, or Brendan Haywood (NBA comparisons for many guys available at #24) should be a deterrent from picking up a guy you think is going to be a star. Just like you don’t pass up a trade for Amare if you have to give up JJ Hickson (yes I know it was Phoenix who declined, but you get the point).
And I completely agree with the 4 rookies argument. They’ll try hard to package some picks to move up and/or take Evan Fournier and hold him oversees. Our 2 second rounders could probably be packaged for a pick in the early-to-mid 20s for a team looking to get unguaranteed contracts- Atlanta or Memphis, maybe?
Perhaps Jenkins is too big of a specialist for that tier 3, but in looking at the players in this draft, and finding “starter on a 40 win team,” I definitely see Jenkins as one of the guys in that role. The fact that he’ll probably be taken in the second half of the draft makes it more likely that he’ll be a starter on a 40 win team than some of the people taken before him.
I’d like to recommend this article in light of the book on Drummond, Fab Mello, Festus Ezeli, etc. http://www.nbadraft.net/2012-draft-study-results. Misek does a really good job illustrating how teams massively over-value shot blocking (the section is about halfway down). And that valuing shot blocking without other skills usually leads to wasted draft picks (.
The article also has a good section on the the statistical enigma that is Royce White, who actually played better against good competition.
Nice thread here. First off:
- Totally agree with first post by Scuzz. MKG + Barton would make me cream my pants. But I don’t thank that’s going to happen.
- Unless the Cavs give up #24 to move to #2 to get Beal, I think it’s going to be Barnes as the pick. Not my preferred route, but he’ll still fill some needs and make the Cavs better.
- Varejao to Boston for their two picks is not logical. The Celts need a lot of youth, and they need it fast. Giving up two solid rookies to add a 30-year old with little offense to speak of to an already aging roster makes no sense.
On the Varejao thread….those harping to trade him for a second lottery pick are missing something in translation. On the surface, it makes complete sense to trade a guy who is 30, while he still has some value, for a more talented player who will become a part of a nucleus that will be ready to contend in about 3 years, when Varejao is in decline. No argument there.
But….SOMEONE has to play the role of seasoned veteran to lead all these kids. Those who think that simply adding the top five collegiate talents puts you on a road to the promised land are a bit naive. Someone has to teach them the little tricks, the ins & outs of being a pro. Not just the coach….someone on the court. If Varejao is gone, there is no one to fill that role.
For that reason, I am against a Varejao trade at this point. I’d love to land MKG and Barton. They won’t solve any of our scoring problems this year….which should land us back in the lottery next year. They’ll also have the best of Miami/Laker’s 1st rounder next year (likely around #20), and possibly even Sacramento’s mid-teen’s pick….in a draft loaded with good centers. Early projections have 4-5 seven-footers going in the first 12 picks.
We can’t do it all in one year, people. Gotta have a long term vision.
HoopsDogg,
Each of my tiers is essentially based on a range; an acknowledgement that I (or anybody) cannot get everything right. Some players in tier 4 or 5 will certainly be better than tier 3. For example, perhaps I’ll say tier 4 is 75th percentile = “Top 50 NBA player” and 25th percentile is “Serviceable 8th man”. That range overlaps the tier 3 range. A tier 4 prospect could still be a “starter on a 40 win team”.
Obviously this is all very arbitrary on my behalf, but the draft isn’t an exact science. The “tiers” do help to differentiate between prospects though, more sufficiently than just listing everyone from 1 – 50 or something.
Well said. The ONLY situation where I would trade Varejao is if SAC will somehow give us 5 without us giving up 4. And yeah, I saw a lot of Centers at the top of next years draft and thought the same thing.
Chad Ford has the Cavs taking Barnes over MKG. A development I like but I know will send this particular blog into a venomous rage.
“Analysis: Ideally, the Cavs would like to move up to the No. 2 spot to grab Beal. But the price is high and they may decide to settle at No. 4. If they do, they have a tough choice between Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Harrison Barnes.
Over the past few days, it appears Barnes has moved ahead of Kidd-Gilchrist on the Cavs’ board. The team needs shooters and feels like he’s further along. They love Kidd-Gilchrist too, but it sounds like he’s become a tougher sell thanks to his limited offensive repertoire. “
Amen Grover. It’s the same thing with trading Boobie. Boobie has deficiencies as a player, but he’s professional, he works hard, he plays hard, he has a firey will to win, he’s a class act off the court, and he’s always trying to add something to his game. You have to bring young players up with veterans that will impart those attitudes. It’s all about a culture of winning.
As for Barton, I think he’s going to be a bust. He had tragically bad combine numbers. I don’t normally put a lot of stock in them, unless they’re REALLY bad, or REALLY good, but in his case they were. He’s one of the slowest, weakest, least agile players in the draft, he’s skinny as a rail, and doesn’t have much muscle. I think he’s a college player who maximized his potential and has hit his ceiling. He’s not a point, and he’s not going to be more than a pin down player and spot up shooter.
@ Slim
I saw that too, but I didn’t want to post it. You’re going to cause a riot on this board.
@HoopsDogg
True, he’s pretty thin. However, so was Kevin Durant.
HoopsDogg-
Fair points on Barton….but I think we have to weigh that against production. Despite all those poor tests, he still was POY of his conference as a sophomore, and the jump he made from his first to second year was tremendous. Despite all of those supposed athletic shortcomings, he still averaged 8 boards a game- AS A GUARD. That’s more than all of the SFs available in the draft who are taller and stronger. I’m not so worried about his frame. You know who else tested historically low on strength? Kevin Durant. And it’s not like rail-thin SGs haven’t found succes in this league (Richard Hamilton, Latrell Sprewell, Jeff Hornacek, etc.)
Does this all make him a lock? No. Your ponts are still valid. But I don’t see any other viable SGs from the 20s on down, and given that the 2 will still be a big need if we get Barnes/MKG, I think it’s a good risk to take at #24. There’s really no other options for a starting-worthy guard after Barton.
Nice list, except ya gotta put Henson ahead of Zeller. All the buzz is that Henson has been killing it in workouts and some say he could go as high as #5 to sactown! I’m just saying…oh and I think he will develop that jumpshot. And I’m not alone…
Kj,
I flip-flopped on Henson and Zeller a few times and like them both.
HoopsDogg and grover13,
I still think there is something fishy about Barton’s speed and agility drills at the combine. Every scouting report on Barton likes his quickness and lateral movement. I wonder if he stumbled out of the blocks or something.
AlexS and Donald make excellent points.
I’m all for the Cavs trading the 4 and 24 for the 2 to get Beal if they feel Beal is that much better than the others on the board. It makes a TON of sense for Charlotte, which means Charlotte will absolutely not make the deal. ;-)
And if you stay at 4 and it’s between MKG and Robinson, you take the best player on the board, which is Robinson. As Donald said, the only time you don’t make this kind of move is if you already have a star in that position. The Cavs have plenty of spots for potential all-stars on the team.
My worst case scenario for the Cavs is for them to stay at 4 and take Barnes. He’s the least intriguing of Beal, MKG and Robinson to me. But who knows? Only time will tell.
LOL @ Bob S! As successful as MJ was on the court, I have the opposite level of confidence in him wearing a suit (front office).
In terms of BPA in comparing the NFL and NBA that I stated earlier, I wanted to clarify. In the NFL teams pass on better players all the time because its more of a game of chess. You need specific players in specific schemes to fill voids at specific positions. In the NBA yu need a distributer, who desn’t hae to be a PG. He could be a Point-Forward. You need Perimeter Defense/Offense and Interior Defense/Offense. Whats the difference nowadays between a 2-3 and a 4-5? How many guys do you see play up to 3 different positions? Thats why you usually go BPA unless you have a superstar (Kyrie, PG) at the position. Many teams who draft for need end up reaching, then getting ridiculed by all the other experts. In the NBA the margin of error is to small to draft for need unless you are a play-off team looking for specific role players.
Looking at the multiple tiers, I disagree just a bit. I personally agree that Anthony Davis is the lone Tier 1 player. I think Tier 2 though is (alphabetical order):
Beal: Size is an issue. Seems many people on this board don’t agree but experts question him defending NBA 2′s.
Barnes: Doubts in if he can be a #1 option but a prime #2 with a pg. Teams also noting that Beal and MKG have also shown weakness in creating for themselves off dribble. Ceiling in question.
Drummond: Living off Potential. Didn’t make same mistake as PJ3 and left after 1 year.
MKG: Falling on draft boards not just because of shooting but teams realizing his athleticism will be largely matched by other nba wngs.
TRob: Best player right now but perceived to have low ceiling.
This is why I like the trade with portland for 6 and 11. You take BPA of the top 6 which guarantees a tier 2 player, then at eleven you get the best Tier 3 player. There just isn’t much difference between they guy you get at 4 from the guy you get at 6. Otherwise, you just stand pat.
Some of you may remember that for a while I was the guy standing up for Barnes, but for MKG’s stock to be falling because of the combine is just stupid. Great on-court performance, great statistical projections, and great intangibles – give me those over great combine numbers. I’m firmly an MKG guy now.
Also I’m not very high on Drummond. I like the idea of going for a high-upside big man in theory, but honestly I think high-upside might be the wrong label for a guy like him. In this case, I think people are confusing “upside” with “far from good right now”. In one of his interviews, he says that basketball has been his main sport his whole life (in response to a question about whether he loves the game). If he’s not new to the game, then how did he shoot under 30% from the FT line? The answer has to be: horrible touch on offense. He has potential on the defensive end, but really ONLY on the defensive end. Poor man’s Ben Wallace, or DeAndre Jordan are optimistic projections. That’s worth a lottery pick, but I don’t see him as a potential star or a good fit for this team.
And I stand by my trade proposal. As far as needing veterans to establish a winning culture, like I said there are cheaper ones who also don’t impose such a high opportunity cost. Look at how the Thunder did it with guys like Kevin Ollie and Malik Rose. You don’t need “teaching” veterans to be currently all-star caliber players. Assuming he’s healthy, that’s what Varejao is, and that’s why Boston should want that trade if they’re smart. (Break up a historically great team for a couple of players who aren’t rated in the top 20 of their draft class and won’t be ready to contribute for most of Rondo’s prime? I wouldn’t.) Maybe the Cavs don’t want to add four rookies, but as of now they have four draft picks in the top 35. Might as well upgrade. They could tweak it by including the 24th and leaving out a second-rounder or something, but I like this concept for both teams. And I really want MKG, Doron Lamb and Draymond Green.
I don’t think Varejao’s value could bring in much more than that, like a top 10 pick. And I don’t see Portland wanting to trade two lottery picks to move up two spots. I think the current order suits both teams better than if they switched, and Portland especially is in a good position to fill its needs (frontcourt size/defense with Drummond at 6, and guard play with Marshall, Lillard, Waiters, Lamb, etc at 11).
Also, late-first round steals have arguably the best value contracts in the league, because they are cheap and long-term. Whereas second round picks can play their way into bigger contracts more quickly.
All good poitns Robin. I still think the Celtics would be crazy to give up more young talent for the 30 year old Verajoa. Allen is Gone, KG might be, and none of them are getting younger. If they bring KG back verajoa could keep them contending for maybe 1 more year, so maybe they go with it, Depends on what they think KG and Pierce have left and who they think they can get to replace allen’s outside shooting.
One negative about moving into the first round though is that should the picks be busts, there contracts are gauranteed for 4 years. Not a ton of money, but not insignificant either, especially if there are 3 of them. But ya, thats not really a deterrent for this deal. Plus trading Varajoa gives us a good shot at another lottery pick next year. Not that we should trade him just to suck, but it is a possible bonus.
Trading the #4/24 picks to get Beal at #2 would be a mistake. I don’t think he warrants sacrificing that second 1st round pick, especially considering MKG, who I say is still the 2nd best player in the draft, might be available at #4. If the Cavs DO make any draft day moves they should be in effort to select MKG, offense be damned. The Cavs can’t be screwing around with precious draft picks to fill scoring needs when better players are available — and as much as they need scorers, they need wing defenders even more. So what if 4 of the top 5 Cavaliers in Tristan Thompson, Varejao, MKG (theoretically), and Alonzo Gee would be able to defend but not score? Check the Bulls out. If you have a top defensive squad playing team ball on offense with Kyrie at the helm, you eventually have a title contender. Defense is what wins championships, and defense should be the Cavs’ focus.
12 of the top 15 defensive teams in the regular season made the playoffs. Chicago, Boston, Philly, Memphis, Atlanta, Orlando and Indiana were all top-10 defensive teams with middling to below average offensive statistics. And despite Miami and OKC being high scoring teams, it was clear to me as I watched the Finals that it was Miami’s defense throughout the series that the Thunder couldn’t overcome.
Offense-driven teams are too inconsistent, because there will always be those nights shots aren’t falling in. I want a team that competes hard every night and contests every single play, making the other team earn every basket. MKG fits the bill perfectly. Can you imagine the number of hustle plays the Cavs would earn with MKG, TT and Varejao on the court? That could quickly become a squad no other team wants to play on a given night.
Oh yeah and I wanted to add to my support for MKG, and Barnes too. I think the importance of those guys’ existing relationships with Kyrie is often understated, as they would immensely help build chemistry on a young team still searching for an identity.
Kyrie, who is decidedly the Cavs’ superstar-in-the-making franchise player moving forward, is only 20 years old. He not only is still expanding his game, he’s also growing as a person mentally. Imagine how much having your highschool teammate (MKG) at 20 years old would help you cope with the pressures of playing in a man’s league, one year into the NBA. How Kyrie Irving the man develops as an individual should be very important to everyone involved in the Cavs organization, including the fans. Basketball players are more than talent, they are people whose individual makeup is expressed on and off court in everyday lives. Example:
Kobe Bryant is OCD for winning titles, and that combined with his natural talent has made him a top-10 all time player. Tim Duncan geniously employs his psychological background to elevate his game beyond what a training room can do. Conversely, Lebron was coddled from a young age and never really matured into a killing machine until this year after a lot of letdown. A Cavs fan could argue his immaturity may have led to an unfavorable decision or two in his career.
But maybe I’m digging too deep and need to shut up. I just thought I had a perspective on something a lot of folks don’t look at. I want Kyrie to stick around, and I think having his old friends as teammates would help in grow on and off court, and vice versa for them. Here’s hoping Chris Grant reads these forums and takes everyone’s thoughts into consideration.
I agree with Carson. The dropoff between 2 and 4 is not steep enough to give up a #24 in a loaded draft. If they do it, I would really like to see them swap the 31 and 34. For this reason, if I was the Hornets, I’d be trying to shop with Portland over anyone else, to get two picks in the top ten. Portland knows the second tier is six deep though.
If it was #4 and both second round picks or #4 and a future 1st rounder, I think that’s acceptable. Getting Beal would be great, but still they have to address SF (assuming they aren’t looking at FA). At #24 Jeff Taylor, Quincy Miller, Draymond Green would be available (possibly Royce White). At #33, they’ll probably be gone.
If they make this trade, I hope they can package both 33 and 34 to move up, or buy back in. I think drafting Beal and Taylor would be great.
Also, for those interested, NBA TV was showing a draft special previewing all the possible lottery picks.
Wow. Here’s a show-stopper.
I was looking at updates of mock drafts trying to gauge the latest info, and I came across something that I have yet to see anyone, anywhere pick up on in the media. It tells me that, absent a trade up to #2, Barnes will be the pick. But more assuredly, THERE IS NO WAY IN HELL THE CAVS ARE DRAFTING MKG.
This is incredibly disappointing, as I would rather have him over Barnes, and think that traits like motor, drive and energy are championship-worthy skills cannot be taught. I checked out a site today that, in addition to having data on the players….also listed the agents they signed with. MKG is represented by Leon Rose. Yes, THAT Leon Rose. Anyone here think that, all else being equal, Dan Gilbert wants anything to do with anyone remotely connected to Lebron James?
Me neither. Barnes will be the pick. I’d go so far as to say if Charlotte takes Barnes at #2 and Washington takes Beal….the Cavs will take Drummond (gulp!) just so Gilbert can avoid Leon Rose.
@grover
Rose also represents Casspi whom the Cavs traded for. This is a business not a soap opera. Although ESPN does get that confused sometimes.
Cavs want scoring not defense and intangibles. Nonetheless, from what I’ve heard Barnes is an incredibly hardworking and disciplined guy.