Kevin’s Draft Board: Tier 3
2012-06-24First off, the “Defend Cleveland” show on 91.1 FM will be interviewing me tomorrow (Monday), immediately after their 11 am break. The station is Case Western University’s campus bandwidth; if you are clamoring for more Cavs related draft talk, please tune in, on your radio or online.
Today’s post defines Tier 3 of my Big Board; players whose career spectrum looks like 75th percentile of “one-time all-star”, while 25th percentile equals “starter on a 40-win team”. That range is completely subjective; since eleven players are included – two or three will meet or exceed the top end, while an equal number match or fail to reach the bottom.
Before moving on, I will briefly mention the rumors of Cleveland trading #4 and #24 for Charlotte’s #2 pick. Because of my MKG infatuation, and the apparent likelihood of him sliding to four; it’s not my first-choice draft-day scenario. Grabbing a highly regarded prospect while keeping the other first-rounder sounds great. If the Cavs really prefer Beal however, the value of the respective picks seems very reasonable for the Cavs. Beal possesses great potential, and the stakes for this year’s first pick are high; Cleveland’s management needs to get it right. It will be interesting to see what happens on Thursday.
Now, on to tier 3. A chance of two of these players falling to #24 exists.
Tier 3
- Anthony Davis (tier 1)
- MKG (tier 2)
- Thomas Robinson (tier 2)
- Bradley Beal (tier 2)
- Andre Drummond (tier 2)
- Harrison Barnes – The first tier 3 player starts a run on North Carolina Tar Heels. Possessing great size, solid offensive production and “NBA-combine MVP status”; Barnes offers a lot from a guy that turned 20 last month. Like many though; I have not convinced myself of his rising star. Drawing a firm distinction between Beal and Barnes represents a large reason my Draft Board posts split into tiers.
Dion Waiters gets excited about his draft stock
- Dion Waiters – Ten weeks ago, when Waiters resided in the early-twenties of most mocks, I placed him above Austin Rivers. I should have followed my instincts further though. A lengthy list of positives exists for Waiters: efficient on offense, committed to defense, young, strong & athletic; this diamond in the rough eventually received notice from many. The Sophomore Syracuse Sixth-man shot up draft boards and apparently received a promise in the mid-lottery. I see shades of Russell Westbrook. In May 2008, the UCLA sophomore resided in the mid-first round in most mocks, before rising to the mid-lottery by draft day. Undersized for a wing, not exactly a point guard, but efficient, explosive and a top-notch defender; Oklahoma City snagged him at a surprise #4. Could this be shades of four years ago? Are all the pre-draft Cleveland rumors smoke screens and they made the promise at #4? How would a Kyrie Irving & Russ Westbrook backcourt look? I’m rambling now and do not think this happened, but the thought was fun.
- Tyler Zeller – In May, I forecasted Zeller as a 14 & 8 guy on 56% true shooting. That still stands.
- John Henson – Henson probably never develops a money eighteen-footer or a reliable post game, but destroying opponent pick-and-rolls, swatting weak-stuff as help, rebounding, and finishing strong all help accumulate wins, too.
- Kendall Marshall – Draftexpress’s best-case of Andre Miller and worst-case of Jose Calderon sums up my thoughts on Marshall very well. With fear of being too precise; I think a 10-year NBA stint with accumulated PER between 17.4 and 17.8 sounds right. Basically, a solid and steady career seems imminent.
- Evan Fournier – I’m going out on a limb here; bear with me through another Austin Rivers comparison. Many mock drafts still show the Duke freshman as a lottery pick. Fournier is three months younger than Rivers. His PER in the top French professional league bested Rivers’ mark in the ACC. Without attempting to prove this; French Pro-A is a grown man’s league and at least half of the players in the ACC will someday wish their career reached that level. Athletically the Frenchman and the Dukie prove similar, except Fournier stands three inches taller. A bit of a hunch; I bet the young foreigner proves to be a talented NBA scorer, and he serves as the first of my “tier 3” players that potentially slips to Cleveland.
- Terrence Jones – In a vein similar to Kendall Marshall; I think Jones is a can’t miss, with a relatively low range between “ceiling” and “floor”.
- Jared Sullinger – Did you know that Dejuan Blair missed three games in three NBA seasons after being medically red-flagged by the NBA? Obviously, I am not a doctor and would not know what Sullinger’s x-rays meant even with access to them. That said, what if he was treated the same way the Spurs treated Blair? Basically, he averages 20 minutes a night…no exceptions. Could Sully offer 8 years of above-average PER as a big-body stretch-four? As one of the NCAA’s best rebounders and most-efficient scorers as an underclassmen; I say yes. Sign him up, if he slips to #24, and team doctors think his back handles controlled NBA minutes.
- Meyers Leonard – Really big, surprisingly agile, and producing effectively at a young age; Leonard is worth a dice-roll late in the lottery. As a best case, I envision him approaching the season Roy Hibbert recently posted. On the other hand, a lot of super-sized bigs flopped in the past; Leonard needs to improve his physical and mental toughness to prove world-class.
- Jeremy Lamb – Many pass-off Lamb’s 2012 struggles due to the dysfunction of UConn’s season. I’ve never been in a pro locker-room, but my guess is that the internal dynamics of the average NBA team picking in the top-ten proves approximately 78 times more ridiculous than the Huskies. Last week, I discussed a reasonably likely career for Lamb as statistically similar to Jamal Crawford; a skinny, scoring guard with average shooting efficiency that does not otherwise stuff the box score.
- Perry Jones III – Did you know that Perry Jones once spanned 275 consecutive minutes this season of on-court time between blocked shots? And summing his “Standing Reach plus Max Vert” leaves him third-best of the 150+ draft prospects in Draftexpress’s 2012 database? Also he registered a top-ten-percent three-quarter-court sprint time? How do these three questions make sense in succession? The player whose career outcomes, according to DraftExpress, range from “Rudy Gay meets Josh Smith” to “Yi Jianlian” rounds out tier 3.
That’s it. Tuesday, I’ll move on to my arbitrarily defined Tier 4.
@grover
Rose also represents Casspi whom the Cavs traded for. This is a business not a soap opera. Although ESPN does get that confused sometimes.
Cavs want scoring not defense and intangibles. Nonetheless, from what I’ve heard Barnes is an incredibly hardworking and disciplined guy.
Wow. Here’s a show-stopper. I was looking at updates of mock drafts trying to gauge the latest info, and I came across something that I have yet to see anyone, anywhere pick up on in the media. It tells me that, absent a trade up to #2, Barnes will be the pick. But more assuredly, THERE IS NO WAY IN HELL THE CAVS ARE DRAFTING MKG. This is incredibly disappointing, as I would rather have him over Barnes, and think that traits like motor, drive and energy are championship-worthy skills cannot be taught. I checked out a site today that,… Read more »
If it was #4 and both second round picks or #4 and a future 1st rounder, I think that’s acceptable. Getting Beal would be great, but still they have to address SF (assuming they aren’t looking at FA). At #24 Jeff Taylor, Quincy Miller, Draymond Green would be available (possibly Royce White). At #33, they’ll probably be gone. If they make this trade, I hope they can package both 33 and 34 to move up, or buy back in. I think drafting Beal and Taylor would be great. Also, for those interested, NBA TV was showing a draft special previewing… Read more »
I agree with Carson. The dropoff between 2 and 4 is not steep enough to give up a #24 in a loaded draft. If they do it, I would really like to see them swap the 31 and 34. For this reason, if I was the Hornets, I’d be trying to shop with Portland over anyone else, to get two picks in the top ten. Portland knows the second tier is six deep though.
Oh yeah and I wanted to add to my support for MKG, and Barnes too. I think the importance of those guys’ existing relationships with Kyrie is often understated, as they would immensely help build chemistry on a young team still searching for an identity. Kyrie, who is decidedly the Cavs’ superstar-in-the-making franchise player moving forward, is only 20 years old. He not only is still expanding his game, he’s also growing as a person mentally. Imagine how much having your highschool teammate (MKG) at 20 years old would help you cope with the pressures of playing in a man’s… Read more »
Trading the #4/24 picks to get Beal at #2 would be a mistake. I don’t think he warrants sacrificing that second 1st round pick, especially considering MKG, who I say is still the 2nd best player in the draft, might be available at #4. If the Cavs DO make any draft day moves they should be in effort to select MKG, offense be damned. The Cavs can’t be screwing around with precious draft picks to fill scoring needs when better players are available — and as much as they need scorers, they need wing defenders even more. So what if… Read more »
All good poitns Robin. I still think the Celtics would be crazy to give up more young talent for the 30 year old Verajoa. Allen is Gone, KG might be, and none of them are getting younger. If they bring KG back verajoa could keep them contending for maybe 1 more year, so maybe they go with it, Depends on what they think KG and Pierce have left and who they think they can get to replace allen’s outside shooting. One negative about moving into the first round though is that should the picks be busts, there contracts are gauranteed… Read more »
Also, late-first round steals have arguably the best value contracts in the league, because they are cheap and long-term. Whereas second round picks can play their way into bigger contracts more quickly.
And I stand by my trade proposal. As far as needing veterans to establish a winning culture, like I said there are cheaper ones who also don’t impose such a high opportunity cost. Look at how the Thunder did it with guys like Kevin Ollie and Malik Rose. You don’t need “teaching” veterans to be currently all-star caliber players. Assuming he’s healthy, that’s what Varejao is, and that’s why Boston should want that trade if they’re smart. (Break up a historically great team for a couple of players who aren’t rated in the top 20 of their draft class and… Read more »
Some of you may remember that for a while I was the guy standing up for Barnes, but for MKG’s stock to be falling because of the combine is just stupid. Great on-court performance, great statistical projections, and great intangibles – give me those over great combine numbers. I’m firmly an MKG guy now. Also I’m not very high on Drummond. I like the idea of going for a high-upside big man in theory, but honestly I think high-upside might be the wrong label for a guy like him. In this case, I think people are confusing “upside” with “far… Read more »
LOL @ Bob S! As successful as MJ was on the court, I have the opposite level of confidence in him wearing a suit (front office). In terms of BPA in comparing the NFL and NBA that I stated earlier, I wanted to clarify. In the NFL teams pass on better players all the time because its more of a game of chess. You need specific players in specific schemes to fill voids at specific positions. In the NBA yu need a distributer, who desn’t hae to be a PG. He could be a Point-Forward. You need Perimeter Defense/Offense and… Read more »
AlexS and Donald make excellent points. I’m all for the Cavs trading the 4 and 24 for the 2 to get Beal if they feel Beal is that much better than the others on the board. It makes a TON of sense for Charlotte, which means Charlotte will absolutely not make the deal. ;-) And if you stay at 4 and it’s between MKG and Robinson, you take the best player on the board, which is Robinson. As Donald said, the only time you don’t make this kind of move is if you already have a star in that position.… Read more »
Nice list, except ya gotta put Henson ahead of Zeller. All the buzz is that Henson has been killing it in workouts and some say he could go as high as #5 to sactown! I’m just saying…oh and I think he will develop that jumpshot. And I’m not alone…
Kj,
I flip-flopped on Henson and Zeller a few times and like them both.
HoopsDogg and grover13,
I still think there is something fishy about Barton’s speed and agility drills at the combine. Every scouting report on Barton likes his quickness and lateral movement. I wonder if he stumbled out of the blocks or something.
HoopsDogg- Fair points on Barton….but I think we have to weigh that against production. Despite all those poor tests, he still was POY of his conference as a sophomore, and the jump he made from his first to second year was tremendous. Despite all of those supposed athletic shortcomings, he still averaged 8 boards a game- AS A GUARD. That’s more than all of the SFs available in the draft who are taller and stronger. I’m not so worried about his frame. You know who else tested historically low on strength? Kevin Durant. And it’s not like rail-thin SGs haven’t… Read more »
@ Slim
I saw that too, but I didn’t want to post it. You’re going to cause a riot on this board.
@HoopsDogg
True, he’s pretty thin. However, so was Kevin Durant.
Amen Grover. It’s the same thing with trading Boobie. Boobie has deficiencies as a player, but he’s professional, he works hard, he plays hard, he has a firey will to win, he’s a class act off the court, and he’s always trying to add something to his game. You have to bring young players up with veterans that will impart those attitudes. It’s all about a culture of winning. As for Barton, I think he’s going to be a bust. He had tragically bad combine numbers. I don’t normally put a lot of stock in them, unless they’re REALLY bad,… Read more »
Chad Ford has the Cavs taking Barnes over MKG. A development I like but I know will send this particular blog into a venomous rage. “Analysis: Ideally, the Cavs would like to move up to the No. 2 spot to grab Beal. But the price is high and they may decide to settle at No. 4. If they do, they have a tough choice between Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Harrison Barnes. Over the past few days, it appears Barnes has moved ahead of Kidd-Gilchrist on the Cavs’ board. The team needs shooters and feels like he’s further along. They love Kidd-Gilchrist… Read more »
Well said. The ONLY situation where I would trade Varejao is if SAC will somehow give us 5 without us giving up 4. And yeah, I saw a lot of Centers at the top of next years draft and thought the same thing.
Nice thread here. First off: – Totally agree with first post by Scuzz. MKG + Barton would make me cream my pants. But I don’t thank that’s going to happen. – Unless the Cavs give up #24 to move to #2 to get Beal, I think it’s going to be Barnes as the pick. Not my preferred route, but he’ll still fill some needs and make the Cavs better. – Varejao to Boston for their two picks is not logical. The Celts need a lot of youth, and they need it fast. Giving up two solid rookies to add a… Read more »
Perhaps Jenkins is too big of a specialist for that tier 3, but in looking at the players in this draft, and finding “starter on a 40 win team,” I definitely see Jenkins as one of the guys in that role. The fact that he’ll probably be taken in the second half of the draft makes it more likely that he’ll be a starter on a 40 win team than some of the people taken before him. I’d like to recommend this article in light of the book on Drummond, Fab Mello, Festus Ezeli, etc. 2012 Draft Study Results Misek… Read more »
HoopsDogg, Each of my tiers is essentially based on a range; an acknowledgement that I (or anybody) cannot get everything right. Some players in tier 4 or 5 will certainly be better than tier 3. For example, perhaps I’ll say tier 4 is 75th percentile = “Top 50 NBA player” and 25th percentile is “Serviceable 8th man”. That range overlaps the tier 3 range. A tier 4 prospect could still be a “starter on a 40 win team”. Obviously this is all very arbitrary on my behalf, but the draft isn’t an exact science. The “tiers” do help to differentiate… Read more »
Donald, that’s why I’m not opposed to the Cavs moving up to #2 to get Beal. If they feel he is THE #2 guy in this draft, go get him. If not, they’ll obviously stay at 4. I don’t think Craig Brackins, Marquis Daniels, Boris Diaw, Thabo Sefolosha, Austin Daye, or Brendan Haywood (NBA comparisons for many guys available at #24) should be a deterrent from picking up a guy you think is going to be a star. Just like you don’t pass up a trade for Amare if you have to give up JJ Hickson (yes I know it… Read more »
I don’t see the point in making up trades that have zero chance of happening, and then analyzing them with hundreds of words. We are not getting Portland’s picks, and there is NO way Boston is trading both first rounders to us. This makes no sense. In other news, MKG has slid to 5 in Chad Ford’s latest Mock. It looks like his complete lack of shooting is catching up with him. Teams seem more intrigued by Beal and Barnes as time passes. I think if we hold at #4 and have a choice b/w Barns and MKG we are… Read more »
Scuzz, we aren’t contending next year, so replacing andy isn’t necassary if we trade him. If we could trade Andy for #7 and drummond is gone (or even if he is there, I really don’t like Drummond) then we would still be benefited to draft J. Lamb, Sully, PJ3 or whoever else the Cavs like. Yes, you need a 5 (just ask Miami.. oh wait. haha exception I know, but the 5 isn’t what it once was) but when you are only scrapping to barely make the playoffs with a young team, you don’t need to have every role filled… Read more »
People, we gotta remember one thing. NO ONE brings in that many rookies in a season. For that reason there is no way we acquire Boston’s pick. It hampers development when you are trying to develop so many new players at once. I’m not against it personally, but teams dont build through just one draft. No one wants to hear this but I don’t see the Cavs doing anything major. Remember how hard we supposedly tried last year in a “weak” draft? I see us either trading up to 2 for Beal, which shows the Cavs think he is leaps… Read more »
Scuzz,
I agree that if Andy is traded (a big if), it won’t happen until draft night once the Cavs know their guy is there.
HoopsDogg, I view Jenkins as a bit too much of a specialist for this tier. Lillard is in my tier 4. I’ll consider your pearls of wisdom as I write that up. PJ3…I don’t know what to say about him. He was too unique of an athlete to not include at this level. Meyers…I like his size, athleticism and production for his age. Did you see in DX’s situational statistics that he was the top per possession back-to-the-basket scorer of the 26 big man prospects they looked at? I would not be shocked by his success or failure depending on… Read more »
I’ll agree that Andy’s trade value is probably as high as it will get. But Chris Grant should have a plan to replace him before making any trades. Who takes Andy’s spot? Someone they draft at 21 or 22? Fab Melo? Semih Erden? Do they draft Drummond at 4? If the Cavs are truly looking to move Andy, I would pursue that rumor of Andy and the 24th pick to GSW for #7. However, they should only do that when GSW is on the clock and if Drummond is available. No sense in doing that ahead of time and getting… Read more »
Been pouring over the “by the numbers” evaluations on DrafteExpress, and I like a lot of your picks. Evan Fournier has a really intriguing skill set: defense, passing, attacking the basket… I’d add some people to this list: John Jenkins who will shine when put on a team who knows how to use him as a knock down shooter who can still pump fake and get off a high percentage shot. He’s different from other specialists though, in that his body and the other parts of his game are decent enough that they’ll at least be average, and not a… Read more »
I would do that trade, and I don’t like many of the Andy trade scenarios (we’ll need to be contending by 2015 to keep Kyrie, and Andy will still be a good player in 2015, but not much after that) but have 21, 22, and 24 would bode very well for at least getting one andy level replacement for the long haul, maybe even 2, or maybe one rondo type player. Still, if I’m the celtics their is no way I’m taking that trade. Andy plugs a small whole in sinking ship with 3 hall of fame sized wholes about… Read more »
Robin, you are a genius! I love that trade. Andy is my dude and I’d hate to see him go, but the Celtics D would be lock down and we’d have a great chance of hitting a home run late in the first round. Hope Chris Grant reads this blog. And if he does… please draft MKG at #4
While I understand the logic in trading Varejao for assets now, how fun would it be to watch Andy and MKG play defense at the same time?
I like Robin’s idea, as much as it would pain me to see Varejao go :( I’ve raved about the greatness of having back-to-back picks and how the Cavs should try to hold onto their pair of 2nd round ones, but this scenario would be a GM’s dream come true… Especially in a loaded draft like this — you like one guy who’s a risk but are torn kinda wanna take another? 21 and 22, boom, take both. Having the 1 and 4 picks in 2011 and 4, 21,22, 24 in 2012 would simply be incredible (assuming no picks turn… Read more »
I’m all for the Cavs trading, but I would rather see them trade with Portland. At #6 you will ending up with either Barnes, Drummond, or possible Robinson. Any of those players will be fantastic additions to the team. In addition you can use the #11 pick on one of the following: Tyler Zeller, Austin Rivers, Jeremy Lamb, Meyers Leonard. This gives the Cavs two SOLID prospects for two more positions. While I am all for hoping to find a sleeper in the late first round, odds are not in most team’s favors. Those picks mostly rely on luck (Rondo)… Read more »
Trade idea: Varejao and both second-round picks for both of Boston’s first-rounders (21 and 22). I love this because I think this draft will have some phenomenal sleepers fall out of the top 20. This trade allows us to have our pick of those guys, so we can address multiple needs and increase our odds of finding that late-first pot of gold–like Ken Faried last year (21), Ryan Anderson (21) and Serge Ibaka (24) in 2008, or Rajon Rondo (21) in 2006, etc. Starting at 21, most of these guys will be available: Doron Lamb, Quincy Miller, Draymond Green, Royce… Read more »
Drafting MKG or Barnes at 4, and Will Barton at 24, sounds a heck of a lot better just than getting Beal at 2, IMO.