Of the three teams selecting ahead of them, the Charlotte Bobcats’ pick at No. 2 seems to be in play. The Hornets certainly won’t trade the No. 1 pick and the chance to draft Kentucky center Anthony Davis and Washington Wizards owner Ted Leonsis made it clear Wednesday night the Wizards are staying put at No. 3.
Lloyd also writes, “Make no mistake, the Cavaliers are not trading down in this draft.” I know he’s likely going off of what he has been told from sources in and around the Cavs’ organization, but that sentiment runs counter to what Chris Grant has done during his tenure as the Cavaliers’ GM. It seems to me that the mindset of this front office has been to stay flexible, not look too far down the road, and take advantage when they feel they have the upper hand. What if the Cavs like a player at four and his draft position slides?
In terms of moving up: I like it in abstract because I think the four spot is an undesirable place to be. Whether or not you like players outside the top three of Davis-MKG-Beal, I think the perception across the league is that the draft falls off not insignificantly after those three guys are off the board. Because of this, I’m not sure what the value of the fourth pick is league-wide or amongst possible trade partners. I’m a strong believer in doing what you need to do to get the guy you want. If the Cavs absolutely love MKG or Beal and feel they need to move up to get either of them, they should do it provided they don’t have to make some outrageous deal that would mortgage their future.
And what constitutes “mortgaging one’s future” is tricky. I guess this all translates to “Do a good job, Chris Grant, or people (including myself) will be upset.” I was chatting with FTS’s Conrad Kaczmarek last night on Twitter about how I so don’t envy having to stand next to a 19 or 20 year-old, and say with a reductive sort of confidence, “I believe in this young man completely. He’s going to be great.” Grant will have to do this soon, just as he did with Kyrie Irving (a delight) and Tristan Thompson (a work in progress who will be forever compared to incoming rookie Jonas Valanciunas). At what cost?
I feel like you guys are really really overstating the drop-off in talent. “I think the perception across the league is that the draft falls off not insignificantly after those three guys are off the board.” What evidence do you have of this? I have not seen anyone besides Cavs fans make this claim.
My sense is that a lot of NBA guys really value Drummond and Robinson because of their size. I don’t get the sense that Beal is a consensus three by any means. MKG seems to be a consensus top 3 guy, but not always considered the 2nd best talent. Further, when I peruse mock drafts, I very rarely see anyone predicting Beal and MKG both going in top 3. Draft Express is one of the better, widely used sites. They have Beal at 5 on their list of prospects going 4 to the Cavs.
I really think Beal will be around at 4. And he is isn’t, then the 4th pick will likely become very valuable to teams who want a big man (Drummond or Robinson).
If Chris Grant looks at Andre Drummond’s offseason performance and thinks we have a winner there, I can trust him. I can also believe in Byron Scott kicking Drummond’s ass and instilling some fire in him. That said, I would love if we managed to snag MKG or Beal.
I believe that if MKG and Beal are gone, then Drummond, Harkless/Q. Miller, and D. Lamb/Jenkins would be a very good draft if Grant, like I said, likes Drummond.
I think you’re overstating the drop off as well. This draft is so deep, I honestly believe Anthony Davis won’t even be the Rookie of the Year. We draft MKG or Beal or Barnes or ANY #2 or #3 guy, and that person will immediately be counted on as our #2 scorer, taking passes from one of the most talented point guards in the league. I think there’s a lot of guys outside the top three you mentioned that can end up having a better rookie impact than Anthony Davis (in the long term is a different story).
After watching a few drafts and all of the hype leading up to them that the perception of players at this point is largely inaccurate. Someone mentioned this in a different thread, but the top 3 picks in a draft hardly ever end up the best 3 players. I looked at the last 10 years, and all of those drafts include at least one player who did not warrant a top 3 pick (and in almost every case didn’t even warrant a top 10 pick). If the Cavs can evaluate talent well, they have a great chance to pick up a very very good player at #4. It’s a lot to ask, of course, but the opportunity is most certainly there.
Chad Ford always has Davis Mkg Beal in that order. Haven’t seen anyone else that didn’t have either Barnes Drummond or T-Rob in there. Its up to the talent evaluators now. Side thought: if someone told you MKG would be Kawaii Leonard minus the corner 3 or Andre Igudala 2.0 would you still want him at 4? How many transcendant wing players aren’t great shooters?
While his offensive repertoire seems horrifyingly limited, I’m not sure Andre Drummond is that much worse than other center prospects this decade in that respect. Very few have come in with a polished post-game. More than that, guys like Howard and Amar’e had (and, to some extent, continue to have) work-ethic issues. Yet, elite build and athleticism has helped both become upper-echelon players. I live with the founder of TheUConnBlog and have consequently watched Drummond. A lot. He does some bone-headed stuff at times, but I think if you pair him with a PG like Irving, you’ve got a pretty great inside out duo. He’s also the natural lob-finished that TT isn’t and may never be.
Thomas Robinson is really, really good. He has a rapidly developing jumpshot, both in consistency and range. His motor is extreme, and his nose for rebounding is undeniable. He seems like a good guy (though we can’t know that) that has been hardened by adversity. Most importantly, HE HAS IMPROVED EACH YEAR BY LEAPS AND BOUNDS. Freshman year = a nobody. Sophomore year = bench contributor with potential. Junior year = force of nature that led an under-talented KU team to the finals. Seriously, if Whithley is considered the teams X factor and 3rd best player, that team has no business in the sweet 16, let alone the finals.
Robinson has experienced exponential growth in skill over the last two years. Assuming that stops and he develops in a linear fashion as a pro, he’s Milsap. Not bad. But there’s no reason to assume that. If he experiences another spurt in development (3 pt. range, passing expertise, etc.) Then he’s an all-star.
Is T-Rob ever an MVP? No. Can he be a really good second banana? I think that a real possibility. Not bad for a so called consolation prize with the 4th pick.
Agreed,
Beal has shot up in estimated draft value due to general agreement among bloggers.
The player we get at 24 may turn out better than any of the first four for all we know.
WHAT’S the DIFFERENCE between these two players listed below?
A
MIN FGM-FGA FG 3PM-3PA 3P FTM-FTA FT REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
31.1 4- 0-8.2 .491 0.3-1.3 .255 3.6-4.8 .745 7.4 1.9 0.9 1.0 2.4 2.2 11.9
B
MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P FTM-FTA FT REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
32.1 4.1-8.8 .468 1.4-3.2 .429 2.4-3.8 .627 4.0 3.3 0.5 1.5 1.9 1.6 12.1
Both were playing for NCAA powerhouses.
Both were playing their final year.
One was 22, now 24.
One was 19.
One will go 2-4 in the draft this year.
One wasn’t drafted and played in Europe last year.
One is ready to play; one is not.
David Lighty, of Cleveland, is player B, and he shoots 3′s, plays great “D” and is available.
MKG is the other player.
No, I am NOT saying MKG is no good, or that Lighty is better, but I am saying that the difference
in the short run may be very slight.
Sign Lighty if you cannot draft MKG.
Don’t worry about draft position.
I agree with Trevor wholeheartedly. I think Robinson is going to be an absolute stud in the NBA. It makes so much sense for him to go to Washington though. I think he goes there and we take Beal at 4.
For us there is a big dropoff in talent after the top 3, mainly because he have no need for a guy like Robinson. Other teams like Washington may have a top 4 because they could use any of the top tiered players (Davis, Gilchrist, Beal, Robinson).
That being said, I still think we should kick the tires on a trade up.
I’d think a trade could make some sense depending on the particulars. But I’m not totally stoked about the idea because I think this is a 4 player draft (5 if you like Drummond). I’ll concede that Thompson and Robinson as back-to-back 4th picks isn’t 100% ideal, but having both on the roster is far from a disaster. Considering there are 96 big men minutes a game, Varajao, Robinson and Thompson can each have 30 and stiff X gets 6.
Imagine the energy and rebounding this particular combination of athletes brings to the court. With Varajao on the floor, we’re a traditional. With him on the bench, the Cavs become a running team, with Irving leading the break. In fact I think Robinson fits nicely with Varajao and passably with Thomson–the latter because of Scott’s up-tempo system. Thompson and Varajao is a bit clunky, but we have to face that reality regardless of who we draft.
If Beal or MGK falls, Grant sprints to the podium.
I really really really think your over-rating Beal. A lot of Gm’s think that t rob is the second best player in the draft. I know that for a fact. I also think there are several Gm’s that think that PJ3 will be the 2nd best player in the draft. Thats part knowledge part speculation. The fact is there is a top 1 with a second tier of 6 players consisting of MKG, Drummond, PJ3, Beal, Robinson, and Barnes. Irving would have fallen into that tier last year and TT would be an part of the 3rd tier with Jlamb, Dion Waiters, Marshall, Lilliard and Zeller. This woe is me crap you are pulling is nauseating
It’s not just that Drummond’s offensive repertoire is shoddy. It’s that, plus the fact that he is a TERRIBLE rebounder who had an absurdly low rebounding rate for a dude his size, plus the fact that he disappears and people have questioned how motivated he is, plus the fact that he shoots something like 30% on free throws. THIRTY PERCENT!!!!
If we draft Drummond, Barnes, or Jones, i will be severely disappointed. Since Drummond has apparently lost a bunch of weight already, i wouldn’t be shocked if Charlotte or Washington take him (although, on the other hand, i don’t know if Jordan would draft a guy that would immediately start being compared to Kwame Brown). Also wouldn’t be shocked if they could trade up for Charlotte’s pick. Was just thinking about that earlier today.
Personally, by the way, i don’t really want MKG. Not that i think he’s bad, i think he could end up being really good. But we need scorers who can stretch the floor, and MKG is NOT a good 3-point shooter. If MKG, Thompson, Gee, and Varejao are your main 4 surrounding Irving, then where is the spacing going to come from? Where is the deep threat?
Terrible post!!! There is no concensus top 3 yet but every damn Cleveland bLogger keeps saying there is! BS!!! Wait, as in two weeks this will all change except Davis at number 1! Damn, can we get some bloggers with some effin perspective around here??
Is Lighty actually available? If so, what a great ‘glue’ guy.
I wonder who else is out there available (or cheaply available). If we need a backup PG/SG, why not Nick Calathes playing in Greece [I think he is Mavs property but I can't believe they need him.]
I’m really not disappointed with the 4th pick, but the team faces some very complicated decisions now. Especially after picking TT last year.
But first, count me as another person who expects MKG or Beal to be available at #4 (but isn’t sure either one is the right player for this team). Both NBAdraft.net and DraftExpress.com have Beal and/or MKG falling to the Cavs’ pick. Robinson fits perfectly with Charlotte or Washington, and I think he’s rightly considered an equal or better prospect to MKG or Beal. (Obviously he has elite strength and athleticism, but watching him I was really impressed with his ball-handling ability. I can see shades of Amare offensively, with less length but better rebounding.) Drummond makes a lot of sense for both teams too if they’re inclined to roll the dice.
Obviously the TT selection raises problems with picking Robinson or Drummond who play the same position or at least have very similar strengths and weaknesses. To win a championship, this team needs at least one very good big man alongside Kyrie. Will TT be that guy? At this point I would have to guess no, but I’m not comfortable giving up on him either. I think, given the other holes in the roster, the higher-percentage bet is to focus on those other spots and build around TT for the time being.
I really like MKG as a player and as a complement to Irving. But his inability to shoot from outside as a wing player raises problems (and I think it’s actually rare for bad shooters to develop a good 3pt shot). With a core of Kyrie at the 1, [TBD] at 2, MKG at 3, TT at 4, and [TBD] at 5, we’re looking at a lineup with a *maximum* of two outside shooters on the floor. In today’s NBA you need at least three and preferably four shooters to run a very good offense, unless two of those non-shooters happen to be Dwyane Wade and LeBron James (and even those guys have struggled at times to be effective together). This is why I almost prefer Barnes even though almost every scout considers MKG the better prospect. If we had a 3pt shooter at the 4 (or even the possibility of filling that spot with a shooter later on), MKG would be a better fit.
Beal looks like a very good player, and should be another shooter to lubricate our offense. But like everybody else I worry about his size limiting him on defense, and leading him to duplicate some of Kyrie’s role on offense. I think we probably will need a secondary ball-handler on the perimeter as well as a playmaker in the frontcourt. Can we afford to lack a very good defender in the backcourt? His size and trouble shooting from outside in college prevent me from being completely sold on him.
Because these guys look like they would fill particular roles, there’s also questions of fit with the later picks. I like the idea of picking Jeffery Taylor following Beal, or Doron Lamb after MKG. But who will be available at 24 and round 2?
I actually like the idea of moving down because I really like Terrence Ross and Meyers Leonard. Ross looks like a perfect fit bringing outside shooting, size, athleticism, rebounding, defense, and unselfishness to the off-guard position next to Kyrie. What he may lack in ball-handling ability is not super necessary with a PG like Kyrie. I like Leonard’s athleticism and all-around potential mixed with the fact that he at least showed he could be effective at the college level. They may not be the hottest prospects now, but I love the fact that they don’t have these deficiencies like height, 3pt shooting, or FT shooting that they’d have to struggle to overcome. It’s not always true, but sometimes tall athletic guys who can shoot are the best basketball players.
If those guys are available at Houston’s picks (14/16) would they take Beal for the pair? Maybe Thomas Robinson? I would be comfortable drafting him for the chance to make that deal and then living with him if it fell through. I know there’s a chance he might be the right pick, but I don’t think I could ever stomach picking Drummond. The clock is ticking to build the core of the Kyrie Irving Cavalier Dynasty, and we just can’t afford to draft a bust in the top 5.
I really hope the Cavs don’t base a pick on the hope that Scott and his assistants “fix” a guy’s ethic/motor issues. It rarely ever works. And it doesn’t seem in keeping with the way the Cavs pick. The Cavs had a ton of options last year but picked a high-character, high motor guy in TT.
In a side note, I am very interested to see what the Cavs approach to the second round is. Are they going to try to make smart picks or package these up in trades? I say this because they have a bunch of these coming to them in the next several years.
I still say we should be talking to Portland instead. Unless Grant and Scott are *SURE* that they have “their guy” at the #4 pick, we need to be trying to work a fair deal for the #6 and #11 picks.
In a relatively talent-laden draft (ask yourself this, knowing what we knew LAST year about Kyrie…no 20/20 hindsight, where would he be going in this draft?), there are better odds of landing a perennial all-star with the #6 and #11 picks, than with the #4 and #24 picks. Would you rather have a shot going forward with a combo like Kyrie/Barnes/Perry Jones III/TT, or Kyrie/Beal/Fab Melo/TT (What draft express currently has the Cavs picking).
Short of Davis/MKG, I don’t see anybody else in this draft that is a “can’t miss” prospect. And I only throw MKG in there based on the current talent he has, plus that every report has him as having a fantastic work ethic. Sure, other guys will fall to pieces or bubble to the top, but you have a better shot at building a good core with 2 lottery picks than 1 if you’re just moving back from 4-6 with the main draft slots.
Here’s my problem with Beal: name one player with his build at 2 Guard who is a really good NBA player… There’s three: Eric Gordon, Jason Terry, and Russell Westbrook. Best case scenario, he’s Gordon. Likely case, he’s O.J. Mayo. I think he just doesn’t have a ton of upside, and he has to max out his abilities because of his size. I think he’s a 6th man at best. Plus, as people have pointed out: a Beal/Irving backcourt is going to get lit up on a consistent basis. He’s a medium risk, medium reward player.
The guy I wax and wane over more than anyone is Harrison Barnes. Is he Marvin Williams, or a poor man’s Kevin Durant? Is he Glen Rice? Rice didn’t become a lights out shooter till his junior year (though his field goal percentage was 10 points higher). Barnes seems to lack the ability to get easy baskets. More than the lack of assists, the thing that bothers me is the really subpar shooting percentages. Also, his obsession with his brand scares me. Will he want to get out in four years?
I agree about the 6/11 thing. I don’t think the guys at 4 are that much better than 6/11. I’d love to see that trade.
I have to admit i was originally not a Robinson guy because of TT (I like TT a lot). But, as someone else mentioned, there are 96 minutes a game for the 4 and 5 spot. If Varejao, TT, and Robinson all play 30 minutes, we would finally get ride of the Samardo Samuels, Ryan Hollins’ and Semih Erdens and always have two legit big man on the floor for the whole game. A few years down the line, with AV is in his mid-30′s, TT slides to 5 and Robinson is at 4.
I am not saying we take him, but if he is the best guy, we should consider it.
Colin, you’re losing it.
“Whether or not you like players outside the top three of Davis-MKG-Beal, I think the perception across the league is that the draft falls off not insignificantly after those three guys are off the board.”
If this is the case why am I seeing mock after mock after mock predicting Charlotte to draft Robinson? And I’m talking about respectable mocks? WHere are you getting this stuff from?
If Beal really ended up being comparable to OJ Mayo, then i would love for the Cavs to draft him. OJ Mayo is a good player.
So draftexpress, walter, yahoo sports, fox sports, and cbs are all mocking either MKG or Beal outside of the top 3, yet Colin here is talking baout some sort consensus? WHere is it?
Here’s a link to walter, that basically compiles every mock draft out there. Go look at the top 3 of each draft and see for yourself. No consensus. Not even close to one.
http://walterfootball.com/nbadraftdata.php
Honestly, there are more mocks out there that either have MKG and/or Beal outside of the top 3 than those with them in the top 3.
I don’t think portland will do the trade but if they do I’d love to see either Barnes or PJ3 at 6 and Leonard or zeller at 11. I think alot of PJ3′s problems are because he played the 5 at Baylor for an idiotic coach. Put him at the 3 with an unselfish pg and one of the best coaches in basketball and i think we will see him develop the confidence that he desperately needs. We also need a big that can rebound and shoot the mid-range J and knock down freee throws if we are commited to TT. So whichever of these two Grant thinks is better I take. Then take doran Lamb or jenkins in the 2nd round
I’m not thinking that Portland would do the trade either, but I’d imagine that such a trade would involve more than just those 4 picks swapping places. In all likelihood, it would involve either the Cavs giving up a decent player that Portland wants, or taking back a contract that Portland doesn’t want. For example, if they want to get out from under Wesley Matthews’ contract and swap that with the picks for an expiring contract the Cavs hold.
And this scenario hinges on Portland *really* wanting to pick a player at #4 that they don’t think would drop to them at #6… In which case, if I’m portland and I really want to move up, the fact that Charlotte is willing to deal the #2 seems like the better option depending on what else Charlotte may be willing to part with.
I’m falling more out of love with Beal and more in love with Jeremy Lamb by the day. a 7 foot wingspan! where do i sign up?!
Joe, I totally agree. What were the biggest things we kept clamoring for this season? Tall, athletic wings that can shoot. Lamb wasn’t that great this past year, but when he played with an excellent PG the year before he was much better, at least in my opinion.
I really like him. And if anyone’s worried about him adding weight, I will buy that beautiful son of a bitch Swenson’s for a month.
Impressed by the comments here. Well done, readers. You’re better than more than a few of the blog writers.
Oh, and ABSOLUTELY the same things people are saying about Drummond’s demeanor/motor et al were said about Dwight Howard, Amar’e Stoudamire and Andrew Bynum. Would you pass on those guys? Of course not. Furthermore, your coaching staff and teammates and team culture can absolutely postively influence a guy. Come on!
They were also said about Eddy Curry, Kwame Brown, and Michael Olowakandi. Would you draft those guys?
I honestly don’t see why ANYBODY thinks Drummond is a lottery pick. Sure, he’s tall. But he kind of sucks at basketball. Which is a probably a pretty glaring deficiency for a professional basketball player.
Who is this Colin stooge? Where does this pretentious crap come from? Are you making up your own consensus top 3 so you can feel sorry about yourself? Take your English degree elsewhere and take a workshop in writing or something, this is disgusting on every level. I miss the days when it was just Krolik around here.
Joe,
The shooting guards in draft express’ database that were drafted and had 7′ or greater wingspans are: Tracy McGrady, Josh Howard, Trevor Ariza, Marshon Brooks, Julius Hodge, Justin Holiday, Alex Acker, Nick Young, Fred Jones and Rod Grizzard. Long wingspans are great, but unless Lamb is the next Tracy McGrady; no one else meeting that threshold is worth a top-5 pick.
Kj and Cranky M,
It’s too bad that of Howard, Amar’e, Bynum, Curry, Kwame…none of them played a year of college. It makes it very hard to evaluate Drummond.
Actually KJ,
For what it’s worth; I’ve been curious about what people were saying about Amar’e, Dwight and Bynum in 2002 – 2005. I haven’t researched it too thoroughly…can you cite articles where people were saying the exact same things about those players as 18 year olds as are being said about Drummond today?
I’m asking out of curiosity. I think it’s a fascinating little research project.
About Howard I found that Scouts.com started their strengths with: “How much time do you have?” and their weaknesses with “there aren’t many.”
ESPN said (amongst other things) about his strengths: “he can do just a little bit of everything” and “He’s mature, a hard worker, has a great attitude”. They started with his downsides as “Not much”. Obviously, I’m cherry-picking information. Both sites asked if he’s the next Garnett or the next Kwame? I will say I’m pretty sure that discussions of Drummond’s weaknesses don’t start with “there aren’t many” and “not much”.
This could be a fascinating research project, comparing what scouts are saying about Drummond to what they were saying about Garnett, Howard, Amar’e, Curry, Kwame, Olowakandi, etc.
KJ,
Given that you know that ABSOLUTELY the same things were being said about Drummond and Howard, Bynum, etc; I expect you to take up this research project. Please include solid references to the source info.
Thank you.
Chad Ford has been basically my main source on this. Most recently on Bill Simmon’s podcast last week. Ford further claims that he personally witnessed a comp,etely under-whelming workout by Howard where he goofed off and seemed lazy. People seem to forget that there was a SERIOUS debate between Howard and Okafor for the number one pick!!! Let’s not revise history here. If Howard didn’t have SERIOUS question marks, why the debate til the very end?
However, I will endeavor to find more examples of what Ford was talking about.
Like most everyone else has been saying, after Davis at 1, there are about 6 guys who have legit cases to be selected #2. This is why I think it would be smart to swap picks with Portland if they want to . I think Harrison Barnes would still be there at 6, and if we are lucky Jeremy Lamb will be waiting at 11.
I would take the Lamb kid from UCONN at 4 and not even think twice.
if they dont trade down with charlotte, they need to take best available player, thomas, beal, or barnes, prefer beal or thomas, i think thomas is the real deal, but i believe cavs wont take him because of tristian thompson, but in the nba draft you never stretch and go for needs, u go for best available player
“Let’s not revise history here. If Howard didn’t have SERIOUS question marks, why the debate til the very end?”
Um, maybe because Howard was coming straight out of high school and Okafor had just finished a college career in which he won a national championship, was the NCAA Defensive Player of the Year, led the nation in blocks, was the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player, and was UCONN’s all-time leader in blocks?
CrankyM,
Your Okafor comparison is eerily similar to Anthony Davis’ year. Howard was drafted on potential, and so will Drummond be. He doesn’t turn 19 until August. I don’t think Dwight Howard looked like this coming out of high school:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXB6vc5Z_A4
Once all the experts start raving about how Drummond looks in workouts, all the groupthinkers here will be all aboard. I say trade Varejao to Portland for scrubs & the 6th pick…and trade Boobie, Casspi, & Walton to New Orleans for the 10th & Okafor’s contract. Draft Drummond & the best available 3 (MKG, Barnes, PJ3) with the first two picks…then take the best available 2 guard with the 10th pick (Lamb, Waiters, Ross). That Cav roster goes 7 deep immediately. And still has cap space.
That video of Drummond dominating prepubescent high school kids will likely carry less weight than the horrible display he put on at UConn, captured in the “Weaknesses” section of the video below (4:00 mark). I hope Washington or Charlotte falls for him, but watching his play at UConn I wouldn’t be surprised if he slides.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=V1xHtOMCJPg#!
@cranky m
Uhhh, duh! Howard had serious questions marks and Okafor was a know commodity! I believe yr making my point for me, son…