What This Means
2012-05-30
Personally, I’m crushed. After the fourth pick announcement came down, I felt my limbs get heavy, and I was subsumed by a despondent sensation. I couldn’t hear what Adam Silver was saying anymore. I think this pick is a death sentence. Some of you will disagree with me, and I encourage you to do so in the comments. But here’s my blunt initial take in bullet form:
–Things can change from now until the night of the draft, the consensus 1-2-3 in most scouts’ and experts’ mock drafts is Davis-MKG-Beal (with the latter two in some order). I think there’s a significant drop-off after those three players are off the board. I’m not going to delineate the abilities of each player here (you can consult Kevin’s excellent draft profiles for that), but each of them, I think, have potential to be special in their own way. And at the very least, they’re going to be solid NBA starters. If another team becomes enamored of Andre Drummond or Thomas Robinson, the Cavs could still draft Beal or Kidd-Gilchrist, but, at present, it’s not a likely scenario.
–So, Thomas Robinson? On a lot of boards, he’s the fourth-best prospect in this draft, and don’t get me wrong, I like him just fine. He presents a number of the problems for the Cavaliers, though. He plays the same position as Tristan Thompson, which means if the Cavs drafted him, TT would have to learn to guard centers. Or the Cavs would have to relegate TT or Robinson to the bench and find a center through the draft or free agency. (I’m speaking of the future. Obviously, Andy Varejao will be the starting center next season if nothing crazy happens this offseason.) Or Thompson becomes trade bait. See how this scenario gets complicated rather quickly? On top of that, this is a team with a rather bare cupboard outside of Varejao (who turns 30 in September), Thompson, Kyrie Irving, and Alonzo Gee. Thomas Robinson may end up being a quite good NBA starter, but I don’t see him ever putting up an efficient 19 and 10 on a nightly basis.
–Remember that conversation we had about Andre Drummond? Turns out that wasn’t rhetorical at all. It’s time to start scrutinizing UConn’s moody man-child. If Robinson’s ceiling and basement are only a few stories apart, Andre Drummond’s NBA potential spans galaxies. The Cavs need to take a really good look at him. Perry Jones III, too. In a draft where the Cavs desperately need to land a future All-Star, interrogating every strength and flaw of the boom-or-bust prospects becomes job number one.
–Chad Ford has the Cavs drafting Harrison Barnes. I’m not a Barnes fan—I think he’s a great shooter who’s not great at much else. There’s something terrifyingly Wesley Johnson-ish about his game. Ford justifies his Barnes projection based on the fact the Cavs loved him last year, but I wonder if Barnes’s sophomore season at UNC soured Chris Grant and co. on taking the young Iowan as high as number four.
Oh, and the early word is next year’s draft class isn’t good. So there’s that. (Obviously early word is just that, but I feel like I’ve just had a 50-pound anvil dropped on my psyche, and that’s the 5-pound barbell that’s conking it on the head as it woozily scrambles to its feet.) Do what you do, comment section.
honestly, i would be happy with Beal, Barnes or PJ3. I think PJ3 has the ability to be a superstar but we all know is issues. Barnes will play better in the NBA ala Pierce and Gay. Beal is compared to Gordon but I think he will be much better.
I’m hoping that Beal is gone. I’m ok with alot of players here. The only sure-fire superstar was Davis. Beal, MkG seem like high floor players but the next 5 guys have higher ceilings, Drummond, PJ3 have superstar top 5 player in the NBA potential. Barnes and T ROB have perennial all-star potential. The question is which one will actually become what he can. That Grant’s job
The reason I’m not crazy about Robinson is that he seemingly struggles against length. Plus, unllike say TT( and btw, all the TT hate STILL from Cabs fans is irrational. Dude got better every month and still has a ridiculous upside. Get a grip!) I think Robinson has basic.ly reached his potential.
@ Chris UK
My bad; meant nbadraft.net. They have Beal going at 8…
Don’t understand the Thomas Robinson hate. He’s actually only ten pounds lighter than Drummond, and they’re the same height. Drummond has a ridiculous wingspan, but Robinson at 7’1″ is pretty good. Plus his shot got better and better, last year, plus he’s obviously coordinated as heck. The guy is probably a can’t miss power forward prospect who could play some center if pressed into service, and could even play some 3. He has a faceup game and a back to the basket game, and is a very good Rebounder (much better than TT, especially on the D Boards). He’s not… Read more »
Cavs need someone who can score from the wing in the NBA. MKG shot 26% from the college three line (most of those were open looks because he played on a great team) and has really bad shooting mechanics. I like him, but he is mostly a finisher and a defender. Shooting is a HUGE question mark that no one ever discusses. I am kind of glad we might lose out on him. He seems overhyped because of his “work ethic” and is “friends with KI.” He seems to have a ceiling of Iguadola, which is nice but not the… Read more »
DCG, I think Robinson is certainly a better prospect, but with Andy and TT already on board, he doesn’t really help us as much as beal would. Hes a rebounder (which we already have) doesn’t have much of an outside shot (though he’s got some potential there) and only hit barely above 50% from the field at 6’10 in college. He’ll be a quality NBA player, probably make an all-star or two, but him and thompson don’t complement each other very well, and I don’t think the cavs are close to giving up on TT yet. NBA Body doesn’t translate… Read more »
I know we already have Tristan but since when has frontcourt depth ever been a bad thing in the NBA? You’re telling me having Robinson and TT wont be a better situation than having Samuels and Erden play heavy minutes? Plus there are quite a few high ceiling SFs that could.be available at 24, namely Quincy Miller or Royce White, even Jeff Taylor.
Will someone explain to me why Beal is such a can’t miss player? He’s undersized for a shooting guard. He’s an inefficient shooter (44% shooting, 75% ft shooting, 33% 3pt shooting in college). I don’t get how good shooting mechanics makes you a top 3 prospect. Plus, why all the hating on Thomas Robinson? He had the second highest rebounding rate in the country last year, an NBA body, a non-stop motor, he’s a finisher. This guy is everything you want in an NBA power forward — and he’s tall enough to guard centers. Keep in mind that rebounding rate,… Read more »
Cheer up skippy. As they say “That’s why they play the games”. None of these players are sure fire All Stars. A.Davis is to skinny. Kidd-Gilchrist can’t shoot. Beal is too short. There is every likely hood Andre Drummond or Harrison Barnes turn out be the best player in this draft. IMO this is a six player draft and as long as the Cavs didn’t end up with the 6th pick and staring down the barrel of drafting Thomas Robinson they are money.
Draftexpress / Yahoo has Beal going at 4: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/y-sports-draftexpress-2012-nba-mock-draft-no-022900401–nba.html
Everybody relax.
This draft will be defined by how well the Cavs idenify talent or manipulate picks, 24, 33, and 34. This is a “depth” draft.
Relax Colin! Not the best spot, but not terrible either. Remember – MJ could do anything and Wash has a freaking HUGE hole at PF (and a young SG that dropped 30 at the end of the season).
Even if it goes Davis, MGK, Beal – Let Grant make his money. We have no reason to doubt him yet, Westbrook was picked #4 by a savvy stats loving GM not that long ago
@Tom is finally someone in here I can agree with. Beal and MKG do not have high ceilings like PJ3and Drummond have. I GUARANTEE after measurements and workouts the Beal falls. He’s already been falling on places like Draftexpress. And Colin, get a life, dude. You remind me of one of those guys who just started following a team and sport so that when t he absolute best outcome doesn’t happen to your team, it’s suicide-watch time. Come on, man. The number 4 pick in a deep draft that is CLEARLY ENCOURAGING due diligence, how can you be unhappy, considering… Read more »
A Weber for hardaway and three draft pick kind of trade like magic and warriors did back in day. Except we got a young pg Irving to go with Davis to make an amazing young duel with cap space. We got 4 picks this year, and our future picks, the future picks of Lakers,kings,and Miami to play with……..
Chris Grant mentioned moving up twice already. If he really does covet MKG or Beal he has been given the green light to be as aggressive as he has to be to get who he wants. The Bobcats are an ideal team to trade down. They need everything and they could trade away Diop’s contract so they can save their amnesty for Thomas. The Bobcats also don’t have a 2016 first rounder from the Thomas deal with the Bulls. There was a #2 and #4 trade down in 2006. The Bulls sent #2 L. Aldridge and a second rounder to… Read more »
@Nate I laughed hysterically when I heard him say that. That’s the equivalent of Chris Grant mentioning Samardo Samuels as one of our key pieces on a championship contender.
Here’s a question I would like to see the guys on the podcast answer: Since Grant mentioned the possibility of trading up, what would you be willing to trade to move into the top 3?
I’m actually a little surprised Bradley Beal is as hyped as he is. I mean his comparisons are “Eric Gordon”. Is that really GUARANTEED top-3 pick material? Seems like Beal had a year similar to Barnes only expectations were so different going into season. (I don’t like Barnes). I don’t see how MKG falls because both Wash and Charlotte have SF as position of need. To be totally honest, I don’t anymore think this was a top-3 or bust draft. It was top 1 or bust. If Beal is more Eric Gordon than D Wade he’s not a worthy top-3… Read more »
@Nate W.- So one meaningless answer that was probably intended to give Charlotte’s fanbase some hope is indicative of how smart a guy is? Cho made some good moves while he was in Portland. I’m not saying the guy is the second coming of Sam Presti or R.C. Buford, just that he’s a smart guy who hasn’t made too many rash moves in his young career. I highly doubt he passes on MKG.
Also, for anyone needing a little hope nbadraft.net posted their new 2012 Mock Draft following the lottery and has the Cavs picking with both MKG and Beal still on the board. Take it with a grain of salt, I know that is not the most respected website around, but it is a small glimmer of hope for the Davis, MKG, Beal, or bust crowd.
As I stated in the other post, outside of getting number 1 I wasn’t really that concerned about where the pick falls in the 2-6 range because, unlike last year’s draft, I can still picture scenarios in which all of the guys in that range could be multiple all-star caliber players. There are going to be a wide range of opinions on all of these players and I do believe that intelligent minds can differ. Personally, my order of preference at this moment is 1. Beal, 2. MKG, 3. Drummond, 4. Robinson 5. Barnes. I would definitely be feeling out… Read more »
Take Beal/MKG if they last. If not trade down to 6 and 11 with Portland. One of Barnes and PJIII, and one of Lamb, Ross, and Zeller with the two picks.
I agree with CavFan89…definitely an overreaction. Go look at the last few drafts and the analysis that came out beforehand. It’s fun to discuss possibilities, but most of the analysis that has been done at this point will be wrong. So before everyone falls into utter despair over the fact that MKG and Beal might be off the board, just remember that you’ll probably look back in a couple years and realize how foolish you were. I’m just going to trust Chris Grant and his staff to outwork and outsmart most of the teams in the draft and pick up… Read more »
Jimbo,
Rich Cho, when naming his players to build around, listed Byron Mullens along with Walker and Biyombo. I don’t know if he’s actually all that smart.
When did ESPN talk everybody into believing this draft was garbage? This 2012 draft class is absolutely stacked, I can’t believe any team would feel bad about only managing being in the top 5. Who in their right mind would be surprised if three superstars ended coming out this year when we look back on it? The Cavs will have a shot at a guy who could match up with Kyrie and turn around their franchise for real, they just better do their homework and choose wisely.
What are the chances that MJ talks himself into Beal, and the Wiz drafting TRob? Let’s hope those two teams are at least as dumb as they have been in the past.
I honestly think if the cavs pick up drummond, it’ll be alright. He way have apparent issues with work ethic and toughness, but I honestly think TT and coach scott will rub off on him. Scott has already helped TT improve from where he was a the start of the season, and TT has just as much tenacity and work ethic as MKG does. If the cavs draft drummond, he’ll be in an ideal place to grow as a NBA player. I just feel bad for Davis, MKG, and Beal if they’re drafted in the top 3. The hornets had… Read more »
the world ending because we got #4 instead of #3? no. remember that we have 4 picks this year. we can trade 2 firsts for a first and second. a first and cash for the #2. we have options to move up. and the players available have question marks. So do MKG and Beal, albeit not as many. Dont panic, we will be fine.
“I think this pick is a death sentence” hehe, you really want to motivate us to comment ;-) Bit of an overreaction… imo there’s a big chance the Wizards take T-Rob as they want to get rid of Blatche and Lewis, Beal might slip to 4… if not, Drummond or Barnes isnt the end of the world imo… I’m optimistic, but Drummond could develop well with a PG like Kyrie, and Barnes could be a 15-20 point scorer right away which our team is severely lacking… Obviously this isnt the best case scenario, but also not the worst (imagine picking… Read more »
What an overreaction. The draft is far from an exact science, there is no way to predict when a player is gonna be a bust. You have your Greg Odens and Manu Ginobilis there to showcase my point.
This is a very bad approach, I expected better from you.
@Nate W.- I doubt the Bobcats take Robinson or Drummond. Rich Cho is a really smart guy and I highly doubt he’ll pass up MKG or Beal for the big guys. As for Ernie Grunfeld, there is always a good chance he’ll make a loony move.
This is exactly how I feel. Woe is me.
I’ll be letting my frustrations out via podcast tomorrow though!
AlexS I whole heartedly agree with you. GM’s are enamored with big men because of the lack of quality guys in the league. I think both the Bobcats and the Wizards are susceptible to drafting one of Drummond/Robinson (and for opposite reasons). First, both teams have proven to be risky (dumb) enough to draft high upside bigs with big question marks (Drummond). Kwame Brown for the Bobcats (well actually just MJ), and pick your poison for the Wizards between Javale Mcgee or Andray Blatche. Second, because of the first point I think both teams are going to be looking to… Read more »
I agree with the sentiment of others…hopefully Charlotte or Washington talks themselves out of Beal, because he’s 6’3″ or something. Maybe one of them talks themselves into PJ3 even. If he’s engaged during workouts, he’ll look like a complete beast. Other than that, it’s not too worth thinking about this tonight. Like Colin says…time for Cleveland to leave no stone unturned in figuring out who Perry Jones III and Andre Drummond are. If Beal slips to four…that’s great.
Honestly, I think Beal will be available to us at 4. He’s going to be scrutinized as the draft ramps up and the bigger, more athletic players will seem more appealing. I’m actually not sold on him myself, but I like him better than Barnes or Drummond. Perry Jones frightens me because he might make all of us look incredibly stupid for doubting him one day, but we’ll see.
Ford mentioned in an earlier analysis that if Harrison Barnes were teamed with a good point guard, he could be a very good player. Maybe Kyrie could elevate Barnes?
The one hope is that Drummond really impresses in the combine and the Bobcats or Wizards want a big man with a lot of “potential”. I could see Washington wanting Drummond to learn for a few years under Nene before becoming a bust. Big men always rise on draft day, so I hope one of them reaches for Drummond/Robinson.
I’m still holding out hope for Beal, who was my 2nd favorite player, but we’ll need a little help to get him.