Links to the Present: Lottery Edition II: Electric Boogaloo

May 30th, 2012 by Colin McGowan

This isn’t breaking (breakin’? I’ll see myself out) news, but the Cavs are sending Nick Gilbert to the Draft Lottery tonight. Is it weird that I’m reassured by this? With the Gilbert kid there (hopefully) in a bowtie and his big glasses, I’ll feel 3% better about the Cavs’ chances at landing Anthony Davis.

I know the writers don’t often choose their headlines, and so I don’t blame Jason Lloyd for his brief breakdown of how many times a team in a certain slot in the Lottery has won it being “Cavs in Prime Spot to Win,” but I don’t want to hear anything about the history of the Lottery. I’m not as stats-oriented as a lot of other NBA writers, but I learned how probability works in first grade: regardless of past outcomes, having a 25% chance to win the Lottery is better than having a 13.8% chance. Shammgod willing, the Cavs can defeat probability.

If you’re confused about how the Lottery process works, this breakdown from Conrad Kaczmarek over at FTS is incredibly useful. The long and the short of it, though: the Cavs have a 13.8% chance at Davis and cannot fall lower than sixth. I also echo Conrad’s advice: positive vibes, everybody! Throw on your favorite record, wear your hat inside out and backwards, whatever you need to do.

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