With the Lakers 2nd round playoff loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder yesterday, Round 1 of the Ramon Sessions trade is in the books. And Cleveland’s winning. In 12 playoff games, Ramon posted an 8.5 PER and was worth negative win shares. Meanwhile, the Cavs plummeted to the third best lottery odds.
Despite the Cavs having the trade up-against-the-ropes, it’s still too early to predict a knockout. Still to come:
Round 2: Does Cleveland land a rotation player at #24 in this year’s draft?
Round 3: Does Ramon pick up his player option for 2012 – 2013? If not, does he re-sign with the Lakers and for how much? (Despite the imagery of “winning” the trade based on Ramon’s non-success, Cavs: the Blog wishes him the best for the remainder of his career.)
Round 4: Can the Cavs package Luke Walton’s expiring contract at the trade deadline for something worthwhile? Or do they just pay Walton $6.1 million for “veteran leadership”?
Round 5: How does LAL finish next year? Can Cleveland land a valuable piece with LA’s 2013 first rounder?
Alot of blows still to be exchanged, but so far, so good for Chris Grant and company.
After LeBron left, I decided, maybe it was LeBron, and not MB. Maybe MB deserved another shot. After games 4 and 5, I decided there needs to be a new NBA commercial with pissed off looks from Kobe then LeBron — cut to Antawn Jamison and Pau Gasol looking clueless and frustrated, and finally a cut to Brown flashing that dopey Al Roker grin and generally looking unfazed. Cut to Andrew Bynum watching a rebound go over his head, and then Donyell Marshall bricking a game winner. “The NBA: Where Mike Brown coaching in the playoffs happens.”
Maybe LA can hire Stan Van Gundy. They weren’t able to get Dwight.
In my opinion…
Round 3 doesn’t matter at all. Sessions wasn’t going to resign with us, so the move had to be made. Even if Sessions finds a jump shot and some defense and goes on to be an All-Star point guard, this trade is at least a wash. But…we can win this trade by at least capitalizing on Rounds 2 and 4.
Round 2. Finding a rotation player with the Laker pick this year will not only weigh into wether we win or tie this trade, but it will determine if we can continue this Irving-accelerated rebuild, and ultimately may say more about Chris Grant than it does about this trade.
Round 4 is just a bonus. I honestly don’t expect much to come out of the Walton contract, but if we get anything at all, its just adding insult to injury.
Round 5 is the key. With a little luck, the Lakers will overreact and trade Gasol, Bynum will get hurt, and the Lakers will just miss the playoffs giving us the rights to the 14th best odds or higher in next year’s lottery. If that happens, then this trade was so incredibly lopsidded that it won’t matter who we draft at that spot.
This trade has always looked good from where I sit. Razor Ramon was a nice backup, but he clearly is a limited player. With the KI show in town, it made sense to unload him. Getting a #1 this year (in a very deep draft) makes us the winner in my view. Period.
As an aside, I finally listened to the podcast and was surprised that everyone agreed that KI’s ceiling was below Rose’s. KI’s shooting efficiency this year was higher than Rose’s has ever been. KI’s PER was substantially higher than Rose’s in his first and second years, and nearly as high as Rose’s during his MVP year. While Rose has a physical presence that KI will never have, I think KI is by far the more skilled and efficient player. If his Defense evolves, I see no reason he can’t be better than Rose. I know I may be a homer, but I would not trade KI for Rose straight up if given the opportunity.
Richard and Hot Sauce,
I always like the trade, too. At the time, some people thought the Lakers ripped the Cavs off, and I, like most Cavs fans, disagreed. I just wanted to follow up on the outcome of the trade now that some time has passed.
Now, we just need to wait and make sure that Ryan Hollins doesn’t win NBA Finals MVP with the Celtics…
Richard,
I agree that Round 3 only matters as it applies to the Lakers not “losing” the trade, which really has little to do with Cleveland (obviously there can be win-win trades).
Also, if the Lakers’ pick ends up in the lottery in 2013, then Cleveland doesn’t get the pick. Cavs fans need to root for LA to finish 8th in the West next year.
Hot Sauce,
The two players are different, and both are amazing. Rose is the youngest MVP in league history though, right? I certainly can’t blame anyone for suggesting he has a higher ceiling.
@ Kevin:
I was under the impression that only the 2012 pick was lottery-protected. I thought that if the Lakers wound up in the lottery in 2013 we could still take it.
Wait, since when did we get the Lakers 2013 first round pick too? From what I know, you can’t even trade consecutive first round picks. So it should just be the pick we get this year.
From what I’ve read, the Lakers have the rights to swap their 2013 first rounder with the Miami Heat’s 2013 first round pick, since we have the rights to that. We don’t have any other first round pick from what I can tell.
Pete and Excl,
See below for how realgm has it summarized. My own summary:
Assuming the Lakers are:
1. Not in the lottery
2. Better than Cleveland and Sacremento
3. Worse than Miami
Then Cleveland swaps the Miami pick for the Lakers pick. Ideally, this moves Cleveland up in the draft from 29th-ish to 20th-ish. The Lakers pick at 29th (ish).
And Excl,
You are correct that a team can’t go two years in a row without a first round pick. That is why LA ends up with Miami’s 1st round pick in this scenario.
From Real GM:
2013 first round draft pick from L.A. Lakers
Cleveland has the right to swap the least favorable of their own 2013 1st round pick, Miami’s own 2013 1st round pick (top-10 protected) and Sacramento’s own 2013 1st round pick (top-13 protected) with the L.A. Lakers own 2013 first round pick (top-14 protected). If the L.A. Lakers own 2013 first round pick is #1-#14, then the L.A. Lakers’ obligation to Cleveland shall be extinguished. [Cleveland-L.A. Lakers, 3/15/2012]
Excl you have it backwards, the Cavs have the right to swap their 2013 1st round Miami pick with the Lakers pick.
For those interested, Sam Amick of SI release his draft class assessment.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/sam_amick/05/17/draft.risk.reward/index.html
Personally, I find him and Zack Lowe to be quite knowledgeable about the NBA.
Thanks for clarifying, Kevin. I wasn’t aware of the lottery protection. Also, it pains me to think that I’m rooting for the Lakers to make the playoffs.
Ah okay. I had read from two different sources that it was the Lakers that had the rights to the swap. Probably just lazy journalism and re-quoting. Thanks for the clarification.
So, we are rooting for Miami to finish 11th, Sacramento to finish 14th, LAL to finish 15th, and the Cavs to finish 30th. Got it.
Excl,
Yes…that would be perfect.
Hahaha, Excl, that’s awesome
What’s certain is that John Hollinger’s secure grasp of pre-calculus makes him more capable of analyzing basketball trades.
Yeah…I totally called this when the Session trade happen as a big plus that many naysayers of the trade were overlooking. I never expected the Lakers to go deep in these playoffs and knew that meant they would have peaked with two years exiting in a row. They will almost certainly need to rebuild/retool by moving at least 1 of their big 3, resulting in it likely being tough for them to even make the playoffs next year.
where is mallory defending this trade like he was when it happened?
also – if sessions idiotically does decline his option, theres always the possibility of the cavs making him an offer for $2-3m as a backup…which is what he is continuing to prove he is.
win win either way
Actually, I think he will decline the option. He didn’t play well in the playoffs, but he did during the season. Besides that, he’s got the Lakers over a barrel. They won’t have the cap space or draft picks to bring in another pg. Also, they will have a difficult time making a trade of Bynum or Gasol. Given the Lakers age, they don’t want to wait to make another run at a title. Given all that, I think he can get an increase in pay.
I can’t see the Lakers making a whole lot of noise next year. They’re old and have virtually no financial flexibility. Their one shot at a decent young player is now our 1st round pick. I’m guessing they trade Pau for someone younger and cheaper, even though the talent won’t be on the same level. Amnesty Artest or Blake and those two moves should clear out enough cap space to make a few signings in free agency and buy an early 2nd round pick.
What really kills them, though, is Kobe’s contract. He takes up half of the team’s cap by himself (28 mil and 30.5 mil for his final two years). While they would never amnesty Kobe, it puts them in a similar position as the Heat when acquiring role players.
I’ve been busy, and missed this. That being said, It’s still WAY too early to say that we won this trade suddenly. Like I’ve said all along, the reason I disliked it was I think, when weighing the amount of money we took on, it feels like we could’ve bought a late 2nd rounder for less. Furthermore, Ramon definitely played half-decently for the Lakers during the regular season, so he certainly hasn’t been a complete bust for them.
That being said, if we ultimately do win this trade, I’ll be more than happy to admit I was wrong, and celebrate the victory. But that still remains to be seen. Lets see how we end up drafting.