Cavs Will Not Be Big Spenders in Free Agency
2012-05-10
WFNY pulled an interesting quote from Tom Reed’s interview on the Bull & Fox show concerning the Cavs’ status as possible players in the free agency market this summer:
“No, not at all. The only types of guys that they will bring in here, is if they feel that their leadership may be lacking, maybe they bring in kind of a smaller name type player. They will not put any significant money into free agency. When they do that it will be more like a final piece… they are not going to overpay anybody.”
This matches up with what Chris Grant and Byron Scott said in their presser after the last game of the season. I think the Cavs are taking a Prestian approach to building this team. Which is to say they’re going to cultivate young, inexpensive talent, then add free agents only when that young talent has made significant growth. You’ll remember, the Sonics/Thunder drafted Durant in 2007 (at #2), Westbrook and Ibaka in 2008 (at #4 and #24, respectively), and Harden in 2009 (at #3) before reaching the playoffs as the eight seed in 2009-10. My point is they finished with pretty abysmal records for three consecutive seasons, mostly because they spent that time playing young guys and cheap free agents.
I’m sure most of you are aware the Cavs are playing with fire. The Presti approach works well in theory, but it has only worked in practice because the Thunder have drafted exceptionally well. (With the exception of trading for Cole Aldrich on draft day in 2010. That guy’s probably a stiff.) It’s a lot easier said than done to claim, “The Cavs have drafted one future All-Star. Now all they need to do is draft two more.” But Chris Grant hasn’t given the fan’s much of a reason to distrust him (time will tell if he screwed up Thompson vs. Valanciunas, but, more importantly, he got Irving vs. Williams right), and I’m encouraged that it seems like there’s an unwavering philosophy in place and that Grant has Gilbert’s support to construct this team as he sees fit. It might not work—odds don’t really matter after you’ve already lost a bet—but I’m cautiously optimistic. And pleased the Cavs won’t be throwing the max at Eric Gordon or $9 million a year at Javale McGee.
@kevin
the asik and erden comparison are interesting. JV’s dominance relative to them in Eurleague does suggest that his NBA floor is substantially above their current performance. Which is a good thing to know.
I did find this blog post below that attempts to assess how EL translates to NBA. I don’t know the author and, thus, don’t know exactly how he constructed his data or ran his analysis, but the results are interesting. Rebounds, assists, FT, 3PT shooting all translate pretty well to NBA. But the correlation of FG% is pretty weak.
http://basketball-statistics.com/howdoeuroleaguestatisticstranslatetothenba.html
Before the draft I was hoping they’d get JV, talented player (according to what others said) who can’t help this year, basically means trading the pick for a pick next year (or whatever year he came over) and an improved position for our own pick in the next draft. But after this season, I’m going to use the highly scientific process of, it’d really suck if he turns out to be better than Thompson, so therefore JV is the next Darko. Same theory that says Lebron was underrated in Cleveland and overrated in Miami. Although I’m hoping we don’t grab… Read more »
fiske and others, last year at draft time, I did some research on this. At that time, my comments were: “The 2006 world championships were three years into Milicic’s NBA career. Stats I have found for Milicic as a teenager in Europe (2002 – 2003) are in 20 mpg, he averaged 9.5 ppg and 4.6 rpg on 48% fg shooting and 67% ft shooting. He rebounded and scored much more poorly than Valanciunas.” and (a big one) “Across all 61 of Valanciunas’ games this year, he averaged 19 points per 36 minutes (pp36), 13 rp36, 2.2 bp36 and shot 68%… Read more »
Looking purely at scouting reports, how does JV compare to Darko Milicic’s pre NBA report? Wasn’t he the most highly skilled big man in that draft?
HoopsDog – 1. TT is a big isn’t he? I would argue he has the potential to be a double-double a game player. I’d rather have a player that can actually play his first year out then taking a chance on somebody who has a contract in Europe, but thats just my opinion. 2. You would really trade Westbrook? He is a great defender with explosive athleticism. He may not be a great passer but he is a fantastic fast break scorer, and he has to be put up there with some of the best PGs in the league now.… Read more »
It really just doesn’t make since for the Cavs to be big spenders until we know what we’ve gotten with our draft picks. Assuming we get guys in the relative skill level of Beal and Fab Melo (wing and big) in this draft, we’ll want to see how good they are in NBA terms before wanting to drop a load of money going after a Mayo or Godon or Asik etc. It’s also necessary to see how Tristan and Kyrie develop to understand the dynamics of the team and what the missin peice(s) are befor doing anything. Anyway you look… Read more »
The guy shot 88% from the line as a season. That tells me for any position, he can shoot pretty well. For a big man, that shooting percentage is Dirk/Larry Bird territory. I’m pretty sure the free throw line is in the same spot there as it is here.
Speaking of free agency, I’m glad that this Chicago played out the way it did with Asik. Despite his roundly disappointing season, I think a lot of people were still looking at him as someone worth throwing $7-9m at as a starting center. During the Philly series, he was thoroughly outplayed Spencer Hawes, who never had a 20 point game in his career until being matched up with Asik. The guy has no post post moves and looked like about an average defender and rebounder. Hope the Cavs were watching, but it doesn’t sound like they’ll be spending anyways.
Hot Sauce is exactly right. I find this phenomenon where guys on Internet boards parrot what they read about prospects fascinating. It’s why I find myself actually questioning why Beal or MKG is worth the 3rd pick. It’s why I ask why so many question Henson’s body type when it’s exactly the same as Davis’ who is the consensus #1 pick! In other words, people should step away from the groupthink that tends to accompany potential draft picks.
Not sure we can say JV is “highly skilled.” All we know is that he is highly EFFICIENT when playing in EuroLeague. Whether that efficiency translates to the NBA is the big question mark, and answering that question is ultimately a subjective judgment. What is clear, however, is that repeatedly pointing to his efficiency in Europe does nothing to resolve this subjective debate. Resolving it requires more systematic evidence on, for example, how EuroLeague stats for C’s translate to the NBA, or at a minimum, anecdotal arguments about similar players who moved from EuroLeague to the NBA. Hopefully we will… Read more »
We should also remember that there is a nearly unprecedented number of money available this offseason, with the amnesty provision. Money is going to be spent this off-season like it hasn’t in years. Even if the Cavs were more ready for talent, I would consider skipping this year. There will be no bargains and plenty of “He got WHAT?!?!?!?” You let this off-season go by and let everyone else fill up their cap space.
Also, Jimbo: every championship team since Jordan’s Bulls has had a VERY good big man, or two.
Argh. Unlock my comment from the monster’s jaws please.
I agree with the philosophy of not spending a lot this year. Cap flexibility in the future will be key. When the punitive luxury tax hits in 2013 teams are going to be having fire sales, and the 2013 free agent class is LOADED. It’s 5x better than the 2012 class. http://www.hoopsworld.com/2013-nba-free-agents We can afford to be choosy. The clear target should be Harden or Ibaka: the cream of the restricted free agent class that year. OKC will only be able to sign one to a max deal, if that. (If it were me, I’d ship out Westbrook and keep… Read more »
Jimbo – are you serious? Big uncoordinated guys like Aesik are getting big minutes in the playoffs, and you don’t think a highly SKILLED big man will make an impact at all? After watching Big Z all those years even?
To me, this is just more of the same news. Obviously we don’t want to make any crazy offers (like we discussed in our last podcast). That being said, as Colin stated, we’re pretty much playing with fire and if any of our picks don’t work out, it’s time to look for a new plan of attack. Time will tell what kind of GM Grant is – we should have a pretty darn good idea by this time next year.
@Jimbo… What is that based on. The guy has put up stellar numbers in Europe and while I think TT has more potential, I think Valanciunas will definitely be a quality big man.
I’m not worried. I think Grant and co are well aware of what needs to be done and they are dedicated to rebuilding this team the right way.
Since when does scoring a big free agent synonymous with over spending? The Cavs should jump at any opportunity to get real talent, especially with so much space.
The fact that the Cavs passed up Big V is reason for hope. I will be shocked if he is ever a rotation player let alone a starter.
We already know that Grant won the Big V vs Tristan in so far as TT will be a year ahead of V in regards to developing into the kind of big Byron wants in his system. There is still a chance Big V is Europe’s next great gift to the world of Basketball, but don’t underestimate what Tristan’s year of “learning what it takes to succeed” from Byron has given him.
You’d have to think that some of the Cavs FA plans would be influenced by what happens in the draft. If they don’t come away with a SG, I’m sure they would consider making an offer to O.J. Mayo, maybe Eric Gordon.
Think of Grant as a poker player. This is a game of chance, and he doesn’t know what he or the other GMs will be holding in a month or two. Makes no sense to say, “I’m gonna make a really big splash this round!” so I’m glad he’s not giving off that vibe. He needs to have discipline in sticking to a plan, but… if an unexpected opening/opportunity arises – a team in a weak position – then he has to evaluate and jump quick. You never know when something like that could happen, and you certainly shouldn’t count… Read more »