WFNY pulled an interesting quote from Tom Reed’s interview on the Bull & Fox show concerning the Cavs’ status as possible players in the free agency market this summer:
“No, not at all. The only types of guys that they will bring in here, is if they feel that their leadership may be lacking, maybe they bring in kind of a smaller name type player. They will not put any significant money into free agency. When they do that it will be more like a final piece… they are not going to overpay anybody.”
This matches up with what Chris Grant and Byron Scott said in their presser after the last game of the season. I think the Cavs are taking a Prestian approach to building this team. Which is to say they’re going to cultivate young, inexpensive talent, then add free agents only when that young talent has made significant growth. You’ll remember, the Sonics/Thunder drafted Durant in 2007 (at #2), Westbrook and Ibaka in 2008 (at #4 and #24, respectively), and Harden in 2009 (at #3) before reaching the playoffs as the eight seed in 2009-10. My point is they finished with pretty abysmal records for three consecutive seasons, mostly because they spent that time playing young guys and cheap free agents.
I’m sure most of you are aware the Cavs are playing with fire. The Presti approach works well in theory, but it has only worked in practice because the Thunder have drafted exceptionally well. (With the exception of trading for Cole Aldrich on draft day in 2010. That guy’s probably a stiff.) It’s a lot easier said than done to claim, “The Cavs have drafted one future All-Star. Now all they need to do is draft two more.” But Chris Grant hasn’t given the fan’s much of a reason to distrust him (time will tell if he screwed up Thompson vs. Valanciunas, but, more importantly, he got Irving vs. Williams right), and I’m encouraged that it seems like there’s an unwavering philosophy in place and that Grant has Gilbert’s support to construct this team as he sees fit. It might not work—odds don’t really matter after you’ve already lost a bet—but I’m cautiously optimistic. And pleased the Cavs won’t be throwing the max at Eric Gordon or $9 million a year at Javale McGee.
Think of Grant as a poker player. This is a game of chance, and he doesn’t know what he or the other GMs will be holding in a month or two. Makes no sense to say, “I’m gonna make a really big splash this round!” so I’m glad he’s not giving off that vibe. He needs to have discipline in sticking to a plan, but… if an unexpected opening/opportunity arises – a team in a weak position – then he has to evaluate and jump quick. You never know when something like that could happen, and you certainly shouldn’t count on it. My confidence in him is that 1) he’s shown restraint and 2) he’s made a big move with no hesitation (Clips trade). Have to be able to do both.
You’d have to think that some of the Cavs FA plans would be influenced by what happens in the draft. If they don’t come away with a SG, I’m sure they would consider making an offer to O.J. Mayo, maybe Eric Gordon.
We already know that Grant won the Big V vs Tristan in so far as TT will be a year ahead of V in regards to developing into the kind of big Byron wants in his system. There is still a chance Big V is Europe’s next great gift to the world of Basketball, but don’t underestimate what Tristan’s year of “learning what it takes to succeed” from Byron has given him.
The fact that the Cavs passed up Big V is reason for hope. I will be shocked if he is ever a rotation player let alone a starter.
Since when does scoring a big free agent synonymous with over spending? The Cavs should jump at any opportunity to get real talent, especially with so much space.
@Jimbo… What is that based on. The guy has put up stellar numbers in Europe and while I think TT has more potential, I think Valanciunas will definitely be a quality big man.
I’m not worried. I think Grant and co are well aware of what needs to be done and they are dedicated to rebuilding this team the right way.
To me, this is just more of the same news. Obviously we don’t want to make any crazy offers (like we discussed in our last podcast). That being said, as Colin stated, we’re pretty much playing with fire and if any of our picks don’t work out, it’s time to look for a new plan of attack. Time will tell what kind of GM Grant is – we should have a pretty darn good idea by this time next year.
Jimbo – are you serious? Big uncoordinated guys like Aesik are getting big minutes in the playoffs, and you don’t think a highly SKILLED big man will make an impact at all? After watching Big Z all those years even?
I agree with the philosophy of not spending a lot this year. Cap flexibility in the future will be key. When the punitive luxury tax hits in 2013 teams are going to be having fire sales, and the 2013 free agent class is LOADED. It’s 5x better than the 2012 class. http://www.hoopsworld.com/2013-nba-free-agents We can afford to be choosy. The clear target should be Harden or Ibaka: the cream of the restricted free agent class that year. OKC will only be able to sign one to a max deal, if that. (If it were me, I’d ship out Westbrook and keep those two).
The Cavs will have to spend a bit of money to get to the salary floor this year, and we should keep Gee if the price is reasonable, but one year deals for character veterans is probably the way to go. Then kill it in the 2013 free agency bonanza, and nail the ’12 and ’13 drafts. The Cavs should be contenders for a long time if they can do that.
Argh. Unlock my comment from the monster’s jaws please.
Also, Jimbo: every championship team since Jordan’s Bulls has had a VERY good big man, or two.
We should also remember that there is a nearly unprecedented number of money available this offseason, with the amnesty provision. Money is going to be spent this off-season like it hasn’t in years. Even if the Cavs were more ready for talent, I would consider skipping this year. There will be no bargains and plenty of “He got WHAT?!?!?!?” You let this off-season go by and let everyone else fill up their cap space.
Not sure we can say JV is “highly skilled.” All we know is that he is highly EFFICIENT when playing in EuroLeague. Whether that efficiency translates to the NBA is the big question mark, and answering that question is ultimately a subjective judgment. What is clear, however, is that repeatedly pointing to his efficiency in Europe does nothing to resolve this subjective debate. Resolving it requires more systematic evidence on, for example, how EuroLeague stats for C’s translate to the NBA, or at a minimum, anecdotal arguments about similar players who moved from EuroLeague to the NBA.
Hopefully we will look back in 3 years and TT will be a monster and Grant will look good.
(Apologies. I love the JV debate. Its just too much fun)
Hot Sauce is exactly right. I find this phenomenon where guys on Internet boards parrot what they read about prospects fascinating. It’s why I find myself actually questioning why Beal or MKG is worth the 3rd pick. It’s why I ask why so many question Henson’s body type when it’s exactly the same as Davis’ who is the consensus #1 pick! In other words, people should step away from the groupthink that tends to accompany potential draft picks.
Speaking of free agency, I’m glad that this Chicago played out the way it did with Asik. Despite his roundly disappointing season, I think a lot of people were still looking at him as someone worth throwing $7-9m at as a starting center. During the Philly series, he was thoroughly outplayed Spencer Hawes, who never had a 20 point game in his career until being matched up with Asik. The guy has no post post moves and looked like about an average defender and rebounder. Hope the Cavs were watching, but it doesn’t sound like they’ll be spending anyways.
The guy shot 88% from the line as a season. That tells me for any position, he can shoot pretty well. For a big man, that shooting percentage is Dirk/Larry Bird territory. I’m pretty sure the free throw line is in the same spot there as it is here.
It really just doesn’t make since for the Cavs to be big spenders until we know what we’ve gotten with our draft picks. Assuming we get guys in the relative skill level of Beal and Fab Melo (wing and big) in this draft, we’ll want to see how good they are in NBA terms before wanting to drop a load of money going after a Mayo or Godon or Asik etc. It’s also necessary to see how Tristan and Kyrie develop to understand the dynamics of the team and what the missin peice(s) are befor doing anything.
Anyway you look at it, JV is a highly skilled C. All you have to do is watch his game film and you can see his athletic ability, ability to shoot, post moves and even a little jump hook he can do with either hand. His skillset isn’t a debate, any scout or basketball fan can see it. The question is, can he be successful in the NBA when he’s playing against more talented bigs that are stronger, bigger and more athletic than the guys he’s playing against now. His footwork and post moves may not be as effective against stronger and faster competition. So his current euroleague ‘efficiency’ may not really be a relevant factor. I think the TT -v- JV debate will be ‘settled’ pretty quickly. I think JV will show what he can/will be by the middle of next season, as a C I don’t look for him to get expinentially better but the flaws and strengths in his game will be seen quickly and we’ll know if his game translates well or not. While I think TT is much more ‘raw’ and doesn’t yet have a dependable set of skills, the question about him is can he acquire and master these skills or not. We’ll know a lot more about him by early next season where we’ll see if he improved significantly or not.
HoopsDog – 1. TT is a big isn’t he? I would argue he has the potential to be a double-double a game player. I’d rather have a player that can actually play his first year out then taking a chance on somebody who has a contract in Europe, but thats just my opinion.
2. You would really trade Westbrook? He is a great defender with explosive athleticism. He may not be a great passer but he is a fantastic fast break scorer, and he has to be put up there with some of the best PGs in the league now.
KJ – 1. I understand why you question MKG, but I don’t understand why you question Beal. He is a knockdown 3pt shooter with deep range, and he is also strong inside with pretty good athleticism. There is a pretty good chance he becomes the best scorer out of this class. The Henson-Davis comparison is a little silly too, as it is quite obvious that Davis is far more skilled in almost every aspect.
Looking purely at scouting reports, how does JV compare to Darko Milicic’s pre NBA report? Wasn’t he the most highly skilled big man in that draft?
fiske and others,
last year at draft time, I did some research on this. At that time, my comments were:
“The 2006 world championships were three years into Milicic’s NBA career. Stats I have found for Milicic as a teenager in Europe (2002 – 2003) are in 20 mpg, he averaged 9.5 ppg and 4.6 rpg on 48% fg shooting and 67% ft shooting. He rebounded and scored much more poorly than Valanciunas.”
and (a big one)
“Across all 61 of Valanciunas’ games this year, he averaged 19 points per 36 minutes (pp36), 13 rp36, 2.2 bp36 and shot 68% from the field and 80% from the ft line. In his 15 Euroleague games, his PER was 26. He played the full season as an 18 year old. These numbers are definitely better than fellow first rounders Jan Vesely and Donata Motiejunas, who both played their European seasons at 20 years old. The numbers are also much better than Darko Milicic as a teenager in Europe.
Two NBA rookies this year were:
Omer Asik – In 2009 – 2010 in Europe per 36 minutes (23 year old), Asik averaged 17.1 p, 10.5 r and 2.6 b with 63% fgs. In 7 Euroleague games, his PER was 15.5. In 2010 – 2011 in the NBA per 36 minutes, he averaged 8.3 p, 11.1 r, 2.0 b, and 55% fg. His PER was only 11.8 however his defensive rating was 97 points per 100 possessions (NBA average = 104.5) and the Bulls were 9.9 points per 100 defensive possessions better with him on the court. To summarize, his offense was worse in the NBA however his rebounding and defense translated very well.
Semih Erden – In 2009 -2010 in Europe per 36 minutes (23 years old, for all 52 games), Erden averaged 13.5 p, 8.9 r, 1.1 b and shot 60%. His PER is 10 Euroleague games was 10.5. In 2010 – 2011 in the NBA per 36 minutes (mostly with Boston), Erden averaged 9.9 p, 7.1 r, 1.5 b with 55% shooting. His PER was 10.3 and his defensive rating was 101 with Boston being 2.6 points per 100 possessions worse defensively with him on the court. Technically Erden was never very good in Europe. His stats dropped slightly going from Europe to the NBA, but it appears his defense was passable in the NBA.
Basically at 5 years younger, Valanciunas was more productive than either Asik or Erden in European basketball. Both Asik and Erden were not fully able to translate their production from Euro to NBA (as expected), however both performed reasonably similar to their Euro stats.
Regarding Jonas looking like a “lurp”, I looked at several NBA big men who came straight from high school. I’ve used the age 19 season for each of these players, because Garnett and Chandler started in the NBA at 19; Bynum and O’Neal didn’t play much in the NBA until 19. So each of these numbers is from the equivalent of Valanciunas’ season next year.
Chandler – PER = 13. Defensive rating = 105, 2nd worst of career (his next season at age 20 was his worst defensive rating).
Garnett – PER = 15.8. D-rating = 107. Worst of his career and 8 points per 100 possesions worse than his career average.
Bynum – PER = 15.4. D-rating = 105, 2nd worst of career
Jermaine O’Neal – PER = 12.7. His D-rating was consistent with his career, but O’Neal did not have an above average PER until his 5th season in the league at age 22.
I’m not trying to compare Valanciunas to these players, just trying to point out that there are growing pains in playing center as a teenager in competitive professional leagues. Each had an average to below average PER at age 19 and most underperformed defensively. I haven’t seen anything to not make me think that:
1. Valanciunas’ age 18 European production is very impressive
2. Europeans stats vaguely translate to the NBA. Obviously decreased effectiveness should be expected, but nothing drastic.
3. Valanciunas’ occassional struggles on defense may be typical for 18 – 19 year old big men playing in competitive professional leagues.”
Before the draft I was hoping they’d get JV, talented player (according to what others said) who can’t help this year, basically means trading the pick for a pick next year (or whatever year he came over) and an improved position for our own pick in the next draft.
But after this season, I’m going to use the highly scientific process of, it’d really suck if he turns out to be better than Thompson, so therefore JV is the next Darko. Same theory that says Lebron was underrated in Cleveland and overrated in Miami.
Although I’m hoping we don’t grab any hyper-athletic raw players this year. Although they’ve dumped Hickson and Eyenga, reminds me too much of the Davis-Miles days in Cleveland, throw in rookie Lebron and you had three players who were basically more/less competent versions of the same player, athlete with size who can kind of shoot.
@kevin
the asik and erden comparison are interesting. JV’s dominance relative to them in Eurleague does suggest that his NBA floor is substantially above their current performance. Which is a good thing to know.
I did find this blog post below that attempts to assess how EL translates to NBA. I don’t know the author and, thus, don’t know exactly how he constructed his data or ran his analysis, but the results are interesting. Rebounds, assists, FT, 3PT shooting all translate pretty well to NBA. But the correlation of FG% is pretty weak.
http://basketball-statistics.com/howdoeuroleaguestatisticstranslatetothenba.html