Due to massive computer issues on my part, a podcast with Robert and Colin has been delayed.  Fortunately, there’s lots to discuss on the draft front.

To start, both Mary Schmitt Boyer from the Plain Dealer and Bob Finnan from the Morning Journal note how the Cavaliers are doing their best to find an underrated, special player during this week’s combine.

Jason Lloyd over at the Akron Beacon Journal covers how, surprisingly, the Cavaliers will not meet with Otto Porter at the combine.  Thankfully, he notes, Porter has made it clear he’d like to play for the Cavaliers.

On Bleacher Report, Greg Swartz details how Mike Brown will improve the current Cavs squad’s D.  Suffice to say it will be a challenge.

Finally, Rant Sports’ Cody Williams touches on Shaun Livingston’s season with the Cavaliers, and speculates about his future.

–Update–

DraftExpress just published the NBA Draft combine measurements.  Notables include Rudy Gobert with the third biggest wingspan, (7’8.5″), and the second tallest standing reach (9’7″) in combine history.  Also, Otto Porter ranks among the lightest players for his size in combine history at 6’7.5″ and 198 pounds.  The entire sortable historical database is posted here.

No Cheating.  Take the Final Exam and see (honestly) how well you know the Trends, Ranks, and Outliers of our beloved wine and gold.

1.) The Cavaliers ended the season with a block differential of:

a.) -82 (or, 1 less block per game)

b.) -167

c.) -226

d.) +30 (Stop being so negative!)

2.) The Cavaliers finished last in the NBA in accumulating what basic box score stat:

a.) Blocks

b.) Forcing Turnovers

c.) Defensive Rebounds

d.) Free Throw Attempts

3.) The Cavaliers finished 1st in the NBA in differential for what basic box score stat:

a.) Turnovers (“Take what you can!  Give nothing back!”)

b.) Blocks (they see me trolling)

c.) Technical Fouls (ain’t misbehavin’)

d.) Field Goal Attempts (Keep on chuckin’)

4.) The Cavaliers’ leader(s) in technical fouls was(were):

a.) Marreese Speights and Anderson Varejao with 4 each

b.) Tristan Thompson, Dion Waiters, and Boobie Gibson, with 3 each

c.) Moondog with OVER 9000?!?

d.) Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, and Marreese Speights with 2 each

5.) Rank the following players by # of Double-Doubles in 2012-2013: Tristan Thompson, Blake Griffin, J.J. Hickson, and Greg Monroe

a.) 1 Griffin, 2 Thompson, 3 Hickson, 4 Monroe

b.) 1 Griffin, 2 Monroe, 3 Thompson, 4 Hickson

c.) 1 Hickson, 2 Monroe, 3 Thompson, 4 Griffin

d.) 1 Thompson, 2 Griffin, 3 Monroe, 4 Hickson

6.) How many players did the Cavaliers have with a PER over 15 and how does that compare with the 2008-2009 team that won 66 games.

a.) 3 Players, and thus 3 less than the 6 on the 09 team

b.) 4 Players, and only 1 less than the 5 on the 09 team

c.) 5 players, and as it turns out, 2 more than the 3 on the 09 team

d.) 6 Players, which gave them 2 more than the 4 on the 09 team

7.) Choose the correct order of these Cavaliers by number of tweets: C.J. Miles, Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, Daniel Gibson, Tristan Thompson

a.) Gibson, Waiters, Irving, Miles, Thompson

b.) Irving, Gibson, Waiters, Thompson, Miles

c.) Miles, Irving, Gibson, Waiters, Thompson

d.) Waiters, Gibson, Thompson, Irving, Miles

8.) Dion Waiters shot 100 more free throws than he committed personal fouls.  (+100)  How did Tyler Zeller fare at this made up stat?

a.) +21

b.) +7

c.) 0

d.) -4

e.) -94

9.) (Of players that played more than 500 minutes) Luke Walton led the Cavaliers in a number of dichotomous statistical categories.  Which ones?

a.) First in assist rate, last in Usage%

b.) First in assist/turnover ratio, last in ORtg

c.)  First in steal rate, last in % of points coming from fast breaks

d.) All of these.

10.) Rank these Cavaliers by improved WS/48 from last season: Irving, Thompson, Varejao, Gee, Livingston, Miles.

a.) Thompson, Livingston, Varejao, Miles,  Irving, Gee

b.) Thompson, Varejao, Irving, Livingston, Miles, Gee

c.) Varejao, Thompson, Livingston, Miles, Irving, Gee

d.) Livingston, Varejao, Thompson, Irving, Miles, Gee

11.) Rank these in order of how expensive (amount/salary) they were this season:

a.) TT shots outside 15 feet

b.) Kyrie Irving All-Star Points

c.) Anderson Varejao Double-Doubles

d.) Luke Walton Free Throws

12.) Apply the following rankings (based on +/-‘s) to the below lineups: Great = +53 in 190m, Good = +13 in 153m, Good =+7 in 99m, Awful = -62 in 421m, Putrid = -66 in 185m

a.) Irving – Waiters – Gee – Thompson – Varejao

b.) Irving – Waiters – Gee – Thompson – Zeller

c.) Pargo – Waiters – Gee – Thompson – Varejao

d.) Irving – Gee – Miles – Thompson – Zeller

e.) Irving – Ellington – Gee – Thompson – Zeller

13.) Of opponent shooting splits, the Cavaliers placed in the top 6 at defending what?

a.) Field Goals

b.) Corner 3s

c.) The Paint

d.) Free Throws

14.) The Cavaliers were 4th in the NBA in point differential against this team:

a.) Thunder

b.) Heat

c.) Clippers

d.) Hawks

e.) Rockets

15.) What percentage of Shaun Livingston’s assisted baskets resulted from Luke Walton?

a.) 18%

b.) 28%

c.) 44%

d.) 63%

16.) The Cavalier players with the best Adjusted Plus Minus numbers this season were:

a.) Thompson, Irving, Varejao

b.) Jones, Livingston, Varejao

c.) Waiters, Ellington, Speights

d.) Irving, Ellington, Livingston

1. The Cavaliers ended the season with a block differential of: -226

Answer: c

Oh, you knew to pick the worst one right?  You’ve read this column before…

2. The Cavaliers finished last in the NBA in accumulating what basic box score stat: defensive rebounds.

Answer: c

I know I wanted to answer blocks too!  They were actually 2nd last in the NBA at blocking shots but finished last in total defensive rebounds.  (Inbounding the ball under the other basket really hurts defensive rebounding numbers)

3. The Cavaliers finished 1st in the NBA in differential for what basic box score stat: Field Goals Attempted

Answer: d

The Cavaliers had the highest FGA – opponentFGA differential of any team in the league.

4. The Cavaliers’ leader(s) in technical fouls was(were): TT, Dion, Boobie (3 each)

Answer: b

Anyone remember the game where Boobie got ejected (2 Ts) in a span of 8 seconds for making a ‘hey I got hit on the arm’ gesture followed by a “hey man, gross neck tattoo” comment to Soulja Boy (Boi?).

5. Rank the following players by # of Double-Doubles: JJ Hickson, Greg Monroe, TT, Blake

Answer: c

Now you know.  The only stat more ridiculous than the Triple-Double is the Double-Double.  STOP USING IT.  David Lee led the NBA by a country mile in Double-Doubles and he’s had his playoff minutes quadrupled by Draymond Green. (Update: This is a bad argument because injuries may have given those minutes to Green) And everyone hates JJ Hickson right?!

6. The average PER comparison: ’13 Cavs = 5 players with >15 PERs, ’09 Cavs = 3 players with >15 PERs

Answer: c

PER – great stat for offense, misleading stat for overall value.  How can 5 players with PERs above 15 lose 40 more games than a team with only 3 players with “above average” PERs?  Defense, synergy, coaching, and one of the 3 players being LeBron.  I’m weaning myself off PER.

7. Choose the correct order of these Cavaliers by number of tweets: Waiters, Gibson, Thompson, Irving, Miles

Answer: d

Everyone went for BoObY’s World right?  No, it’s actually Waiters with almost as many tweets as the rest of that list combined.   Here’s the tweet-count:  C.J. Miles: 2,501 tweets, Kyrie Irving: 2,746 tweets, Dion Waiters: 17,126 tweets, Daniel Gibson: 9,816 tweets, Tristan Thompson: 4,974 tweets.

8. How did Tyler Zeller fare at this made up stat (PFouls – FTA): -94

Answer: e

Hit the weights and the “muscle milk”, Tyler.

9. Luke Walton led the Cavaliers in a number of dichotomous statistical categories.  Which ones: All of them.

Answer: d

Amazingly, Luke Walton was all of those things this season.

10. Rank these Cavaliers by improved WS/48 from last season: TT, Livingston, Andy, Miles, Irving, Gee

Answer: a

Thompson (+.060), Livingston (+.047), Varejao (+.042), Miles (+.029),  Irving (0), Gee (-.027)

11. Rank these in order of how expensive (amount/salary) they were this season: Walton FTs, Andy DDs, KI all-star pts, TT mid-range js

Answer: d-c-b-a

Luke Walton Free Throws (10/$5,680,000 or $568k each), Anderson Varejao Double-Doubles (16/$8,368,182 or $523k each), Kyrie Irving All-Star Points (15/$5,375,760, or $358k each), Tristan Thompson shots attempts outside 15 feet (11/ $3,894,240 or $354k each)

12. Rank these Lineups:

Answer:

a.) Irving – Waiters – Gee – Thompson – Varejao  = GREAT

b.) Irving – Waiters – Gee – Thompson – Zeller     = AWFUL

c.) Pargo – Waiters – Gee – Thompson – Varejao  = GOOD

d.) Irving – Gee – Miles – Thompson – Zeller         = GOOD

e.) Irving – Ellington – Gee – Thompson – Zeller = PUTRID

Try figuring this out.  Subbing Zeller for Varejao makes a Great lineup Awful (alright so far so good), but taking that Awful lineup and subbing C.J. Miles for Dion Waiters makes it Good.  Huh?  Also, the only difference between lineup d and lineup e is a Miles for Ellington substitution and about a net of +70 points.  Good luck analytics team.

13. Of opponent shooting splits, the Cavaliers placed in the top 6 at defending what: Opponent’s FT%

Answer: d

Yeah, the Cavs sucked at defending all shooting – except they were 6th in the NBA in opponent FT% which is excellent!

14. The Cavaliers were 4th in the NBA in point differential against this team: Heat

Answer: b

That’s right, the Cavs were the Heat’s 4th toughest opponent.  Houston, unfortunately, found only 1 opponent easier to shred than the Cavs.

15. What percentage of Shaun Livingston’s assisted baskets resulted from Luke Walton: 44%

Answer: c

Livingston and Walton had quite the 2-man game going this year.

16. The Cavalier players with the best Adjusted Plus Minus numbers this season were: Kevin Jones, Shaun Livingston, and Anderson Varejao

Answer: b

Livingston and Kevin Jones rated highly on Advanced Plus/Minus Calculations

So, how’d you do?

Scoring: out of 16

16: The prestigious Cavs:TheBlog McDonald’s I’mLovingIt KiaSephia KrogerBrand cotton swab JoeTait’s Sweaters Award for Excellence in Cavalier Acumen.

15: The You can’t believe someone tweeted more than Boobie / Brian Windhorst Got Everything Right Except, You Know, the Whole LeBron Thing Award for Almost Perfection

14: The Terrell Brandon Bookended by SuperStars Award for Brilliance – may you not be forgotten in the annals of Cav:TheBlog lore

13: The Hot Rod Williams Swagger Stare Award

12: The Anderson Varejao over Chris Bosh Fancy Locks of Love and Evil Award

11: The Bobby Sura Has Never Been Used as a Draft Comp Award

10: The Tyrone Hill Cliched Blue-collar Award for Grabbing Rebounds Away from Bigger Guys

9: The Shawn Kemp Probably Has More Illegitimate Offspring than ThisAward

8: The Summer of 2005 Award for Overpaying Free Agents into Guaranteed Mediocrity

7: The Damon Jones Leg-Kick Award

6: The Kevin Hetrick/Jon Leuer Excellence in Prognostication Award

5: The Delonte West High as a Kite Award, Presented by KFC

4: The Donyell Marshall Forgot Something? Award

3: The David Wesley Layup has Been Viewed over 3 Million Times / The Internet is Cruel Award

2: The Jiri Welsch Panic Award

1: The Ted Stepien has as Many Championships as Sam Presti and Daryl Morey Combined Award

0: The Carlos Boozer/LeBron James High-Character Award

It began with a sandwich.

The sandwich had bacon and cheddar upon it and the sandwich, when teamed with inevitable add-ons Large Fries and Cool, Refreshing Coke, begat a package of basketball player cards. And it was those cards, one of which featured a certain young man whose name having been given to the sandwich, that along with said sandwich made a certain young man feel, in his words, “seven feet tall.”

What do you mean you need context? Oh, okay..

And with that, Brad Daugherty was seven feet tall and he was teamed with inevitable add-ons like Craig Ehlo and “Leaping” Larry Nance, and they begat a team of basketball players named the Cleveland Cavaliers. And, in the 1991-92 NBA season, it was those Cleveland Cavaliers, who featured not just Daugherty, Ehlo and Nance, but also Mark Price and … um … that other guy … Mike something, and this team reached the Eastern Conference finals after going 57-25 to tie the eventual Finalist Portland Trailblazers for the second best record in the NBA (though, both of them a full 10 games behind the eventual champion Chicago Bulls) only to lose to those Bulls in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals that made this certain young (at the time) man feel, in his words, “well, you know, kinda bummed?”

The playoffs can be tough. No, I’m not talking about the nail-biting games or the physical pounding endured by players facing suddenly ratcheted-up intensity. I’m talking about having to watch other teams’ players enduring this and not those players on the Cavs. I’m talking about foaming at the mouth and chewing on my draft tether for another six weeks and hearing rumors about the summer of 2014 and about keeping Kyrie happy and about defense, defense, defense.

So, allow me, if you will, to escape to a simpler time — to the “time we were really good” before the most recent “time we were really good,” to the year and the playoff run where I cut my teeth on the Cavs, the NBA and Cleveland’s just-come-up-shortness. Ladies and Gentlemen, if you please, let us remember and consider…

Your 1991-1992 Cleveland Cavaliers*:

C: Brad Daugherty (7-0, 245 —  21.5 PT, 10.4 REB, 23 PER) The ’91-’92 Cavs were statistically the best of that Lenny Wilkens group from the late-80s/early-90s. There was no Ron Harper, sure. There hadn’t been for a few years, at that point. But the Cavs saw career-best (or veeeeery nearly so) years from Daugherty, Price and Nance. Daugherty’s career was limited to a relatively short eight years — and he only played close to a whole season in six of those eight. But he was a legit seven-footer, a 20/10 guy, who excelled at a time when the NBA was much more a center’s league. Offenses played inside-out and if teams didn’t have a star at that position (Ewing, Olajuwon) they had a body and some elbows to throw at you (Cartwright, Laimbeer). Still, Daughtery probably doesn’t receive credit for being as good a player as he was. He could never shake the label that he was “soft” and his Cavs teams, of course, could never shake Jordan’s Bulls. It’s fun to imagine a healthy Daugherty in today’s game, though, where his combination of finesse and relative speed for a man his size could be even more effective than he was in his day. That hairline, though, is effective in any era.

PF: Larry Nance (6-10, 205 — 17.2 PT, 8.4 REB, 3 Blocks, 21.4 PER) The old man to this rag-tag bunch of unkempt youth, Nance’s elite shot blocking anchored this team, known more for its offense than its defense, and his ability to consistently hit the 10-15 foot jump shot spaced the floor for Daugherty and Price, making him the anti-J.J. Hickson. You know how commentators like to drool over Serge Ibaka and his shot blocking? Well, Ibaka led the league this year (with Brook Lopez) at 3 a game, the same as Nance in ’91-’92.

SF: Mike Sanders (6-6, 210 — 12.6 PT, 4.7 Fouls, 60.8 True Shooting Percentage, 13.6 PER) Sanders is fascinating to look back on. Completely fascinating. He scored decently enough, but he rarely shot three pointers and still wound up with a FG% just under 60% at a “towering” 6-6. That’s crazy to me. I just struggle to come up with any rotation player on a championship-caliber team (which these Cavs were, don’t forget) with such an off-kilter production line. I don’t struggle with the 4.7 Fouls per 36 minutes, though. That, I love. Just run him out there for 40 minutes a game and watch him foul out every time. We gotta get us some MIKE SANDERS!

SG: Craig Ehlo (6-6, 180 — 13.9 PT, 41.3 3-point percentage, 13.8 PER) “Mr. Everything,” as my internet searches claim Ehlo was nicknamed, has a pretty good line for the team’s fourth option on offense. That 41.3% from three is particularly impressive. You have to imagine, if Ehlo played today, he’d be a Three-and-D guy, known for hitting uncontested corner threes and getting abused by the other team’s best player … oh. Oh, wait. Yeah, I guess some things never change.

PG: Mark Price (6-0, 170 — 21 PT, 9 REB, 94.7 free throw percentage, 22.7 PER) Lost in Price’s constant battle with John Stockton and Jeff Hornacek for “guy who looks the least like a professional athlete,” is just how good of a professional athlete Price was. It was just that he was 6-0 … and had those sleepy eyes … and had the knees that he had … and that problem with Jordan that his team kept having that often gets him shuffled toward the back of the Great Point Guards Discussion. Price was underrated off the dribble and a joy to watch shooting the basketball.

This team will unfortunately go down for what they did not do. Still, I wonder what a team like this team would look like today.

I know, I know… different league, different style, different rules, buuuuuuuut there is a similarly dominant player set on running away with MVPs and the (perhaps) title(s) in this current era that will surely push some player from a Kerr to an Ehlo. On the one hand, you could make the simple comparison— that the ’11-’13 Pacers, ’11-’13 Bulls or even the ’11-’12 Celtics are the few christened to carry the torch of the Conference runner-up, the same position of sharing a conference with a transcendent talent playing at his peak as the ’91-’92 Cavs.

But that’s the simple comparison. That’s always going to happen.

I want to know what collection of current NBA players when put together most mirror the ’91-’92 Cavs roster — their starters, at least. I used statistical comparison as a jumping-off point. But, in the end, this experiment is two parts numbers with the rest filled up with gut.

So…

NOW get on your feet to meet your … um … well, your 2012-13 ’91-’92 Cleveland Cavaliers:

C: Brook Lopez (7-0, 260  — 23 PT, 8.2 REB, 24.7 PER) Lopez is really where this whole crazy idea started. After two years of arguing with Nets fans about how much Lopez sucked, I saw him grow, this season, into, if not a dominating force, at least a guy who is a franchise offensive center whose closest comparison was one Bradley Daugherty. Lopez doesn’t rebound on Daugherty’s level but, boy, he smacks of him in many other tests, specifically the eye test.

PF: Old Kevin Garnett (6-11, 220 — 17.9 PT, 9.4 REB, 1.1 Block, 19.2 PER) Okay, Old Kevin Garnett is very different than Kevin Garnett, but his rangy frame, defensive intensity and reliable jumper earn him the spot as this team’s Larry Nance. Old KG is still a better rebounder than Old Man Larry (aided, in part, by Garnett’s playing center for the small-ball Celts the past year and a half) and Nance was the better shot blocker. But Garnett brings with him a similar late-career all-star glow that Nance flashed during his Cavs career.

SF: Kawhi Leonard (6-7, 225 — 13.7 PT, 6.9 REB, 59.2 True Shooting Percentage, 16.4 PER) For the record, I told you Mike Sanders was going to be a tough player to replicate. I told you that — and I’ll readily admit that Leonard is probably overqualified for this spot (somehow he just can’t figure out how to foul at such an elite level…). This was a gut move, reinforced by their similarly high true shooting percentage. Yes, Leonard’s going to take and make more threes than Sanders (i.e. any) but, to this point in his career, he’s been a defense-first, athletic, glue guy. Mike Sanders, I’ll be looking for your “thank you” card in the mail.

SG: Thabo Sefolosha (6-5, 215 — 9.9 PT, 41.9 3-point percentage, 12.8 PER) Sefolosha was a much easier selection. I just asked myself “Who plays two-guard for a contending team, contributes in multiple ways, likely is tasked with stopping the opposing team’s most dynamic wing players and, more than likely, will wind up on the wrong end of a big game-winning shot?” Thabo, meet Craig. Craig, Thabo.

PG: Stephen Curry (6-3, 185 — 21.6 PT, 6.5 REB, 90.0 free throw percentage, 45.3 3-point percentage, 21.3 PER) Price was challenging for many of the reasons I listed that made him so fascinating. Jameer Nelson? No, Price was better than Jameer Nelson is. What if Jameer Nelson ate Mike Conley and J.J. Reddick? Nah, I’m not even sure that digestive breakdown would warrant an all-star selection. Maybe I’m huffing too much of the playoff zeitgeist, but from the choir boy looks to the insane shooting, Stephen Curry is your present-day Mark Price. Yes, Curry is probably an even better shooter than the insanely-good-shooting Price, but imagine what Price might have done in a more free-shooting league that played a more guard-oriented offense. I’d take that. Yes, please, with seconds.

That’s a pretty good team. I’m not convinced they’d win a championship (or even have a top-three record) but, like the original, I’d wager Eastern Conference Finals, coaching depending. Okay, fine, they have Phil Jackson. Let ‘er rip!

Until we’re back in it, folks…

*All Cavaliers stats are for the ’91-’92 season, contemporary stats are for the ’12-’13 season, all are adjusted to “per 36 minutes” (though, to be fair, all of the Cavs starters averaged very close to 36 minutes that season) and all are courtesy of basketball-reference.com.

I’ve been of two minds lately.  My inner pessimist keeps spouting off: Kyrie Irving’s not good enough. He’ll never play defense. He likes making commercials more than making improvements. The half empty glass whispers, The Cavaliers would be better off trading Kyrie Irving. It’s a dialogue between doubt and faith.

Faith knows that Irving is as good a young offensive talent as has ever played in the league.  His rookie numbers were up there with the all-time greats.  But his sophomore season?  He regressed in a couple of areas.  His shooting splits dropped from .469/.399/.872 to .452/.391/.855 with his usage going up from 28.7 to 30.2, these are still fantastic numbers, and fairly minor fluctuations.  His assist rate dropped from 36.5 percent to 32.7 percent, but his turnover percentage also went down from 16.1 percent to 13.8 percent.  Irving passed a little bit less and shot a little bit more.  Most of these changes were fairly unremarkable.  And Kyrie once again led the NBA in  crunch time scoring per 48 minutes.

2012-2013 NBA Season Crunch-Time Stats

2011-2012 NBA Season Crunch-Time Stats

But  his efficiency dipped considerably.  Irving was ridiculously good in 2011 and clearly expected the same success this season.  But he was much better at shooting, rebounding, and not turning the ball over in crunch-time during his rookie season.

He was a turnover machine at the ends of games his year.  10 turnovers per 48 is awful, and a .67 assist to turnover ratio is Drew Gooden territory.  Much of this was due to the fact teams figured out how to defend Irving: trap him high, and force him to give up the ball or try to make a hero play.  If Byron Scott deserved to be fired, one of the key reasons was that he let Kyrie develop some very poor late-game habits. Kyrie is not good at passing out of high double teams.  He doesn’t get any zip on the ball: he loops it or jumps to pass, and the ball gets picked off a lot.  He also overdribbles, and more than once dribbled off his foot in a key moment, or stumbled and threw up a weak shot as time expired. He hasn’t yet adjusted to the defenses teams throw at him when the Cavs absolutely need a bucket.

These are the sorts of scenarios Irving will encounter with increasing frequency if the Cavs grow over the next few seasons into a perennial playoff team. Which brings me to another troubling fact: the NBA playoffs historically belong to big men.  The ability to get a shot up over the defense is key to winning and winning consistently, and being inordinately tall just helps.  Of the last 23 NBA champs, only one team has featured a point guard as its best player: the 1989-90 Detroit Pistons, who featured Isaiah Thomas. The 2004 version of Chauncey Billups might have some claim to that mantle as well, and Tony Parker nabbed a Finals MVP in ’07, but neither player was head and shoulders above everyone else on their team the way Thomas was, or the way Kyrie is. (Plus, Chauncey had Sheed, Parker had Duncan, and Isaiah… well, prime Isaiah was a transcendent player.)  If Chris Paul’s brief Clippers tenure proves anything, it’s that it’s hard to dominate in the NBA playoffs if your best offensive player is a point guard.

And we all know and bemoan Irving’s defense, as late as April 5th, Kyrie was guilty of inexplicably lazy defense.  Those games didn’t matter in any tangible sense—the Cavs were firmly in the hunt for lottery balls by the time April rolled around—but in a game the Cavs eventually won, Kyrie docilely stared at a Jason Terry fourth quarter three from the left block.  I said in November that, “Kyrie’s sins aren’t sins of execution or understanding, they are failures of effort, focus, attention, and accountability. If he doesn’t fix the way he plays defense, he will not win. It’s as simple as that.”

But, Kyrie did get better since I penned these two pieces (part 1, part 2).  Take Kyrie’s Synergy stats in comparison to a player whose defense I respect a lot, Eric Bledsoe. (Irving’s numbers are on top, in the white rows.)

Here, Kyrie is comparable to Bledsoe.  He has much better numbers against isolation, but I’m betting a lot of this is because Irving consistently gets put on the worst isolation offensive player and is often helped with double teams (which would explain Kyrie’s 19 percent defensive turnover rate against isolations), whereas Bledsoe is consistently put on above-average isolation players.  If we compare some other numbers, we see that Bledsoe holds opposing point guards to 14.9 PER, while holding opposing shooting guards to 22.7 PER.  He also helps his team defend 4.9 points per 100 possessions better when he is on the floor.  Irving, by comparison, holds opposing point guards to an 18.1 PER, and his team defense is 2.1 points per 100 possessions worse when he’s on the floor.  But the difference isn’t as stark as you might think, and .87 points per possession by Kyrie is a lot better than I thought he’d be before I looked at the numbers.  It has been clear in limited stretches that Kyrie can play defense when he wants to, with focus and effort.

It’s also clear that, at times, he sticks to screens like they’re made of fly paper, makes horrible defensive pick and roll decisions, and gives up on plays.  What frustrates people is that Kyrie doesn’t seem nearly as focused on improving as a player as some of his peers.  Damian Lillard is rumored to be locking himself in the gym with Gary Payton this summer to learn defense.  Steph Curry is currently leading the Warriors on an extended playoff run.  Meanwhile?  Kyrie Irving is doing clinics, making a paid appearance at Interop for Cisco, and has plans to teach Kangaroos how to dunk down under.  My worry is Kyrie is satisfied with where he is as a player and doesn’t seem to be willing to put in the work to be anything more than a friendlier and better shooting version of Allen Iverson—that Kyrie thinks it’s all about gettin’ buckets, not preventing them…

OK, That’s an unfair criticism.  Kyrie’s not stupid — far from it.  Kyrie has to know that the key to being a great player, is learning to play defense, and learning to be an elite point guard — not just an elite scorer.   Knowing what one needs to do in order to improve, and having the will, desire, and the ability to accurately self-evaluate in order to make those changes, are very different things, and those things take time.  Kyrie has a reverence for Malcolm Gladwell and his theory that it takes 10,000 hours to become an expert at something.  According to Kyrie, he put 10,000 hours into basketball by the age of 19.  If he has that kind of dedication to being a great basketball player, he’ll put in the next 10,000 hours to be a winner.

But I fret, because that’s what fans do: what if Kyrie has peaked?  What if he has put in his 10,000 hours, and he’s done growing as a player?  What if he’s happy where he’s at: all star, ankle breaker, commercial maker…?  Of course my expectations are immense, and completely unfair.  Look, Kyrie’s going to be a very good player. it’s just that he needs to be really freaking great if  the Cavs are going to win a title with him. and even then, he’ll need help.

If the Cavs are smart, they will realize that Irving’s preternatural abilities come with preternatural weaknesses.  He’ll never get to be a good defender.  He’ll never be able to get his shot off consistently in crunch-time.  He’ll never learn how to pass hard out of the double team.”

You’re a 37-year-old blogger from Alaska who hacks everything that moves in pickup games.  What do you know about being a 21-year-old millionaire basketball prodigy?  Damian Lillard is a year older.  Steph Curry is 25. Give Kyrie time.  He’ll learn.  Just because he’s not giving interviews to Spin Magazine about summer training with Gerald, ‘The Jordan Buster’ Wilkins, doesn’t mean that he’s not working on defense.  KI logged 10,000 hours in the gym before he went pro.  That’s dedication, Holmes.

What if the Cavs’ best option is to trade him now, and build the team around a lesser point guard and an all-star big man?  Could they flip Kyrie and the #19 pick into Al Horford and Eric Bledsoe, then try to trade for Gasol or Pierce?  Will they some day be settling for the four quarters for a dollar trade that Oklahoma City got for Harden, the hodge podge of young assets Orlando got for Dwight Howard, or the near-nothing Cleveland got for LeBron James…?  What they really ought to do is trade Kyrie for a shot or two at Wiggins or Jabari Parker…

You’ve been spoiled.  Even if everything works out perfectly, it’s going to be a long climb.  The Cavaliers aren’t taking the Heat to game six of the conference finals in two years.  Do you know what kind of effort that is going to take?  Look at what the greats had to do to to get to the finals: LeBron in 2007: 25 points, 8 boards, and 8 assists.  He was 23.  Dwyane Wade in ’06?  28.4/5.9/5.7 and 2.2 steals.  He was 24, and he had Shaq at the end of his prime.   How about Tim Duncan?  In his first finals, ’99? 23.2/11.5/2.8 with 2.6 blocks, and the Admiral playing on his team.  In 2003?  27.6/14.4/5.0 plus 4.3 blocks.  Duncan was 23 and 27.  Holy pantheon.  It’s obvious that this kind of greatness doesn’t even start till 23.  The lone exception to this?  Magic Johnson, who was 21 in his first finals team, but that Lakers team was loaded, and Magic is 6’9″.  Kyrie’s development has been matched only by the all time greats.  He’ll do his part.  The rest of his game will get there, and everything else is up to his teammates and the organization.  If there’s anything Mike Brown can teach young players, it’s how to guard the pick and roll.  Don’t let Mike’s fart-whiff face get you down.  No one ever succeeded without failing first.

ARGH we’re all guilty of irrational optimism.  We’re going to be spending the next few years waiting for some other shoe to drop.  But despite my well reasoned malaise, there’s no way the Cavs are trading Kyrie any time soon.  Still, I can play with the trade machine to get multiple all-stars for Irving. Meanwhile, the wallabies better be helping Kyrie channel his inner Mookie Blaylock.

Not a lot of Cavs news lately, but there have been a couple stray bits of information that filtered out over the last few days.  Let’s round ‘em up.

In not so shocking news, another mock draft, this time at nbadraft.net, has the Cavs taking Otto Porter at number three.

Saturday, Bob Finnan of the News-Herald told us not to expect the Cavs to “spend like summer of 2005.”  He also reported that the Cavs are expected to “kick the tires” on O.J. Mayo in free agency this summer.

Bill Simmons over at Grantland finally completed his annual NBA trade value series which stretched over three weeks this year.  He ranks Kyrie Irving at #7, one spot ahead of Chris Paul. He sums Kyrie up nicely and ominously with a comparison to current Sacramento mayor Kevin Johnson.

So we’ll see about Irving, an electric offensive player who is already one of the league’s best clutch scorers.¹⁵ He’s only two years into a favorable rookie contract. And he’s also just 21 years old, a baby for God’s sake. There’s a lot to love. Ironically, I think he’s Kevin Johnson 2.0 as a basketball player — just as devastating off the dribble, just as unstoppable getting to the rim. Let’s hope that comparison doesn’t stretch to his durability, too.

Oh, and the footnote?  “15. He’s a weak defensive player right now. Has to be mentioned. Not good at all.”

In the best news of the weekend, Mary Schmitt Boyer of Cleveland.com / The Plain Dealer dropped this pleasant bit in her “Hey Mary” Q&A column: Anderson Varejao is off blood thinners and should be ready for training camp.

Finally — and the connection to the Cavs is tenuous at best — Grantland’s Zach Lowe profiles Buckeye alum, Mike Conley.  I’ve been saying all year that Conley is the most underrated player in the NBA, and one of the best two way players out there.  If there’s one player that Kyrie Irving should be emulating when it  comes to development, it’s Conley.  Similarly ambidextrous, Conley has gone from being a “frail” defender to one of the top five in the league, and has become a pick and roll savant.  Irving could do a heck of a lot worse than becoming a better version of Mike Conley.

Self indulgently, I’ll leave you with this gem from Simmons on pick-up basketball, just cause I liked it so much.

I love playing basketball — even now, with my body breaking down and my game decaying to alarming degrees — if only because it’s one of the few places left on earth where you can connect with total strangers like that. Age doesn’t matter, backgrounds don’t matter, nothing matters. You have four teammates, they can be anybody, and you either know how to click with them or you don’t.

–Update–

Well, speaking of teams of five random guys, nba.com posted the all-rookie squads this afternoon, and Dion Waiters made the first team, along with Anthony Davis, Harrison Barnes, Bradley Beal, and rookie of the year, Damian Lillard.  Tyler Zeller represented the Cavaliers on the second team, but was the lowest vote getter on the two teams.  Still, the fact that Zeller beat out the likes of Moe Harkless and Andrew Nicholson when voted on by a panel of 30 NBA head coaches bodes well for him.  Congratulations, Dion and Tyler.

An athletic big with a history of strong production, but attitude issues? Take him at #19 and see if a glimpse of D-League life brings him to his full potential.

All credit for stats and much information goes to draftexpress.com, statsheet.com and eurobasket.com; three unique and awesome websites.  Certainly I worked in an original opinion somewhere though.

Regarding the first round of the 2013 draft, I still think the Cavs benefit best by bringing aboard one player to the active roster next year.  Kyrie, Tristan, Dion, 2013 lottery pick, and Zeller need to be surrounded by veteran talent: players to share lessons learned, teach them how to be pros, etc.  Based on that thought, the nineteenth pick would be traded, Euro-stashed, or invested in a young player destined for a year of D-League time.

The latter scenarios present interesting opportunities to swing for the fences.  The Cavaliers employ the aforementioned crew of youngsters, plus possess a multitude of future draft picks to acquire role players.  Why not shoot for the moon with this year’s other first-rounder?

Here are some options.

Tony Mitchell – Over the last two seasons, I have been fairly practical about my pre-draft evaluating.  This year, at #19, I say roll the dice; this North Texas sophomore fits that bill.  Ranked 18th in the high school class of 2011, he resided above 2012 lottery picks Dion Waiters, Terrence Ross, Meyers Leonard, and Kendall Marshall.  As an athletic, long combo-forward, after originally enrolling at Missouri he missed a season due to academic issues.  Heading to North Texas, he flashed his impressive skills for one year, before mightily regressing this season, as his squad quit on their new coach.  Certainly as the star player, the enigmatic Mitchell carries much blame for the team’s lackluster 13 – 18 record.  Currently sitting 21st at draftexpress and 30th at ESPN, check out these per-game averages:

• Freshman – 29 minutes, 15 points, 10 rebounds, 3 blocks, 1.6 assists on 57 / 44/ 74 shooting.  His PER registered at thirty.
• Sophomore – 32 minutes, 13 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.7 blocks, 0.8 assists on 44 / 30 / 68.  His PER precipitously dove to twenty-one.

Can one year relegated to the D-League kick him in the butt and help him locate his ceiling?  I would be willing to take that chance.

Giannis Adetokunbo – The 6’ – 9” Greek / Nigerian garners a look in the mid-to-late first round.  Playing weak competition in the second-level Greek League, he averaged 22 minutes, 9.5 points, 5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.6 turnovers and 1 block on 46 / 31/ 72 shooting.  His team lost in the championship, missing an opportunity to ascend to the Greek first division; Adetokunbo posted a disappointing 4 points, but supplemented it with 9 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 blocks. His primary strengths include great length with smooth athleticism; relatively skilled, he frequently ran the team’s offense.  Considering his age (basically a high school senior, he started last season at 17 years old) and size, his nearly 1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio serves as a credit to his unique skill-set.  Next season, he begins a four-year contract with Zaragoza in Spain’s first division, the world’s second-best national basketball league*, reportedly with attainable annual opt-outs (via draftexpress).  Given his age, size, athleticism, burgeoning skill set, and chance to nurture in the Spanish ACB for a couple of years, he may be one of the few opportunities to snag a true difference-maker with the nineteenth pick.

Lucas Nogueira – A Brazilian Center with a 7’ – 5” wingspan, his early years were plagued by immaturity and lack of work ethic.  Rumor says he improved in these regards, and his production appears to support that.  Not turning 21 until July, Nogueira posted a 24.6 PER in over 400 minutes in the ACB this year, blocking nearly three shots per thirty-six minutes and converting 66% of his field goals as an effective pick-and-roll slasher and offensive rebounder.  His contract in the ACB runs for one more year, and pairing him with a fellow Brazilian in 2014 – 2015 (Andy, for those not thinking very hard), could serve as a great springboard to rein in this youngster’s elite combination of size and athleticism.

There you have it.  Three guys likely to be available at #19, with elite ceilings…of course, they also have floors of solid EuroLeague starter.  This is the type of player I think should be targeted at #19 though.

* Apparently, Giannis has passport issues that impacted his ability to travel to the Nike Hoops Summit and could impact his ability to play in the Spanish ACB.  This has to get resolved though, right?  He can’t be forced to stay in Greece for the rest of his life, right?

Breaking conjecture: Chad Ford—in his pre-lottery mock draft that, while interesting, is the hypotheticalest article because we have no idea where the Cavs will be selecting come June—has the Cavs taking Otto Porter with the third pick. We’re probably going to be beating each other over the head with chairs by the time the draft rolls around while debating the merits of Porter, Victor Oladipo, Alex Len, et al., so I advise that, for your mental health, you not worry too much about what the mocks say until at least after the lottery. Otto Porter, though, huh? He has very long arms, a great motor, and intangibles so strong they threaten to become actual things. I give it an A-minus. (I have almost no idea what I’m talking about.)

Oh, and Kyrie Irving is going to hold some coaching clinics in his native Australia this summer. No word yet on whether or not, during downtime, he plans to shoot a commercial in which he dribbles through a pack of dingos, crosses up a koala, then finds a kangaroo—which basically has the same catching and leaping ability as Tristan Thompson—for the slam, but that would be super cool. (Get at me Nike’s marketing department! I have tons of great ideas!) Maybe the kangaroo could wear a Thompson jersey? (See what I mean?)

Mike Brown’s first hiring came with a clock. Cavs owner, Dan Gilbert, fearing his newly christened coach lacked a certain ability to grasp conceptual metaphor, was kind enough to bring an actual, physical clock to Brown’s introductory press conference. The clock, Gilbert explained, symbolized that Brown, even before he coached his first game, was “on the clock” and was expected to win immediately.

By Brown’s second hiring, Gilbert believed that we all had grown cognitively enough to interpret signs and symbols without his help. Either that or he just forgot the clock at home. There absolutely was a clock at Brown’s second press conference, though. Only this clock when it tolls, assuming that the clock had some sort of alarm function on it (and there’s no reason to believe it wouldn’t because … well, Dan Gilbert can afford really nice clocks), it tolls not for Mike Brown, but for CG.

Chris Grant firmly hitched up his GMsmanship to Brown and the next two years will basically decide whether or not Grant sticks around to further rivet the girders of his Cavaliers Rebuild blueprint. If Brown instills some manner of offensive and defensive identity (preferably a good ones) into the team of young players Grant has acquired since Brown left in 2010— and if those identities lead toward better professional basketballing in Cleveland, multiple playoff appearances, contender-dom, etc.— it will be hard to not give Grant a good deal of the credit. His run is identified by controversial (but generally agreed-upon in hindsight) draft picks, largely static off-seasons, long-term salary obligations wiped away from Cavs’ spreadsheets and a cupboard now bursting with future first rounders. It’s also featured a three-year run of some pretty terrible basketball but, at least on paper, Grant seems to be a man who can GM with above-average efficiency. He’s done arguably better than expected. No Jim Paxson, he.

But what if all that still isn’t enough?

Being a successful GM, we believe, is about vision— about being able to identify players who will excel for your team at a better clip than the person doing the same job in 29 other NBA cities. The great GMs are 20% Nostradamus and 80% used car salesman: drafting wisely, winning trades and wooing free agents. But what they really are is 100% lucky— lucky they came around at the right time, lucky they chose at the right spots in the right drafts, lucky their guy didn’t get hurt while the other team’s guy did. GMing is a skill— clearly some people are better at it than others— but just like the players they use to fill out their rosters, NBA GMs, even those disposed to being good at their job, need the right situation to succeed.

In much the same way as people say things like “Michael Jordan would score 45 a game with today’s hand check rules” or “Mikan would have been destroyed by Russell, Wilt, Shaq… heck, even by Tyler Zeller (cough… cough)” when comparing a player to prior or future generations, there can be arguments made for “What would Sam Presti have done with his Westbrook pick (fourth overall) in the 2012 draft?” or “Maybe Chris Grant would have gotten the 2004-09 drafts right.”

The following is a completely useless exercise, but I do it because, while completely useless, it’s also extremely fun to think about: what if the Cavs had the first round picks they’ve had the last three drafts over three consecutive years of a more talent rich period in league history (see, when I say “completely useless” I really mean it…)? That would be the first and fourth (2011), the fourth and 23rd (2012) and, l0ttery results not withstanding, the third and 19th (2013). So far, Chris Grant has used those picks to draft Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson, Dion Waiters and traded the 23rd and two 2012 second rounders for Tyler Zeller (17th overall). You all know this. Right. Of course, you do. But— again, purely for fun and in the spirit of the old “the Cavaliers never surrounded a certain someone with any talent” argument— let’s see who the Cavs would have drafted if they underwent an identically slotted rebuild in the 2003-2005 drafts.

2003 would have netted the Cavs LeBron James (still a wise pick) and Chris Bosh (huh, I wonder if they’d be any good playing together?). In 2004, they would have drafted Shaun Livingston (hey, we know him!) and— wait a second— the Cavaliers, just like in the future, trade up to the number 17 spot to select Josh Smith. Finally, in 2005, the Cavs get Deron Williams (who will end up getting Paul Silas fired just one year into the start of the 10-year contract extension the Cavs coach signs in 2007) and Hakim Warrick (yeah, I know… this is where this game gets decidedly less exciting). Three of those players have been multiple all-stars and a fourth (Smith) is often in the snubbed/nearly-made-it debate. Now, that there’s some franchise changing talent. It also happened to be available (along with others) in these drafts.

At the start of 2006, the Cavs have the theoretical rotation of Williams, Livingston, James and Bosh (all on inexpensive rookie contracts) plus Zydrunas  Ilgauskus (oh, don’t worry, Carlos Boozer, picked in 2002, still ends up doing his bizarro Robin Hood  robbing-the-blind-to-feed-Carlos-Boozer act and is no longer with the team). What the Cavs had, you’ll remember, was the much more real-feeling (in the way in which reality comes with its lumps) rotation of Eric Snow, James, Drew Gooden, Ilgauskus and over-paid versions of Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall and Damon Jones.

Sigh.

I realize I’m not blowing anyone’s hair back with the wild assertion that having a bunch of high draft picks in strong drafts is better than in weaker drafts, but it leads me to a couple of broader “like Cavs in the hourglass” issues to consider:

1.) Maybe sometimes effective rebuilding isn’t possible. Are we really saying “If Chris Grant is really the tops— if he can GM better than other people GM— then he will be able to build a contender here regardless“? Clearly, that’s what his boss says, but is it really true? If Phil Jackson would have coached the Bobcats last year, how much better would they have been? 30 wins? A playoff team? Probably not. Likewise, as much continued success as I wish for (and, okay, pray for … I mean, like, a lot) Kyrie, Dion, Tristan and the gang, what are the chances that we came to our “build through the draft” organizational strategy during an uninspiring time for amateur ball players to be turning pro? What if being an NBA GM at this particular three-year stretch is the equivalent of coaching the Bobcats? Scary thought. If Chris Grant loses his job because the team does not improve markedly over the next two seasons, maybe his press release goes something like this: “Um… and what would you have done exactly?”

2.) Being back in the lottery for the third straight year is not a good indicator of future success. Lottery picks are good to have. No one is disputing that. That is where most franchises start to turn it around. However, one of the reasons the Cavs did not pick so high again after drafting LeBron— and why Oklahoma City did the large part of their building over two drafts [correction: the Thunder took James Harden third overall in 2009, making it three straight trips to the lottery just like the Cavs— however, over the prior two drafts they added Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka in 2008 and Kevin Durant and Jeff Green in 2007. Green was later traded for Kendrick Perkins, so I stand by the statement that a "large part" of their rebuilding was over two drafts but, yes, Harden is also really, really good.]—and why, heck, you can even extend this to Indiana with Roy Hibbert and Paul George: drafting franchise changers tends to change the franchise for the better rather quickly and so, when we look at how successful teams are built, we often find ourselves looking at one or, more likely, two drafts.

The Cavs are in their third consecutive lottery. That looks a lot more like the Minnesota model or the Sacramento model than the OKC model. Chris Grant is on the clock. Mike Brown is on the clock. This whole team is on the clock.

The Golden State free agent situation is as important to the Cavs as any team in the league’s.  The Warriors cap situation next year is brutal.  They have $24 million committed to Richard Jefferson, Andris Biedrins, and Brandon Rush who have ETOs they won’t exercise.  Carl Landry will probably opt out of his $4 million dollar option.  This leaves $69 million in salary commitments next year for the Warriors with the current luxury tax at $70 million.  There is a lot of speculation as to what the tax threshold will be next year.  There are estimates that NBA revenue will be up 20% this year.  The big question is, how much of this will be “basketball related income,” which is the number upon which the luxury tax is based?  A huge BRI increase would actually be devastating for the Cavs’ free agent hopes, and small market teams everywhere.  One of the theories behind the 2011 collective bargaining agreement was that the deal would help small market teams compete in luring and keeping free agents, because it would punish big market teams that overspend on player salaries.  But if the NBA revenue pool increases faster than salaries, those teams won’t hit that limit.  If this happens, teams like the Thunder will definitely kick themselves, as they would have easily been able to keep Harden.

With the luxury tax threshold higher, teams will be able to throw around some crazy money at NBA free agents, and the theory that the Cavs could pay more because teams would be reticent to wander into luxury tax territory will be blown out of the water if teams suddenly have $14 million more to spend to be under the tax.  Suddenly Miami will have an easier time keeping the axis of ego together…  *(correction: the Warriors wasted their Amnesty on Charlie Bell.  If the tax threshold goes up, $14 million should still be enough to sign Jack, Landry and a rookie). Someone smarter than me needs to investigate this.

Now that that pessimism over optimism is over, let’s get to the talent.  Yesterday, we covered the pending free agents and trade targets in the first round of the eastern conference playoffs.  The available talent in the western conference is clearly superior.

Garcia provides shooting where the Cavs need it most.

Oklahoma City Vs. Houston: Only Francisco Garcia, who has a $6.4 million team option which probably won’t be exercised (though given the above, who knows) will be free from the Rockets.  The 6’7″ swingman played in only his second playoffs in eight years, and after only playing 18 minutes in the first two games, started the next four.  He had a very nice series, scoring 14 points per 36 off .440/.459/.600 shooting.  He averaged 8.1 three point attempts per game, but his hot zone is the corners, and the Cavs need a guy who can hit corner threes.  Garcia probably garnered a nice little payday, and there is an outside shot the Rockets pick up his option.  If they do, a trade for a one year hitch with the Cavs might be in order. As for defense, Garcia contested shots, averaging 1.3 blocks per 36, and finished with a very scrappy +4 for the series.  Garcia fits the Dunleavy/Korver veteran shooter role, but with a little more spring in his step than those two.  Additionally, his career minutes are only about 10,000, due to injury, so there’s less mileage in his legs.  But, he’s been hurt a lot off some pretty fluke injuries.

Speaking of corner three shooters, Kevin Martin will be available from the Thunder.  30 years old, 6’7″, and 185 pounds, Martin is an elite shooter, but struggled from inside the arc, shooting .348/.375/.880 for a very pedestrian .513TS% .  In 28.9 minutes a night, and 22.8% usage Martin’s funky sidearm release might finally be catching up to him.  While it’s quick, it’s a little easier to close out on than a classic release. For the money he’ll command, at least $8-$9 million, I’d like to see the Cavs grab a younger player who’s a better defender.  Martin’s always been a little twiggy.

San Antonio Vs. Los Angeles Lakers: The Spurs have a bevy of pending free agents, starting with Manu Ginobili.  The odds of the Cavs signing one of the best sixth men of all time are pretty low.  Manu didn’t have a dominant series, totals wise.   Coming off an injury, it’s not as if San Antonio needed him to be so.  Still, 20.8/5.5/8.8 with 3.2 steals per 36 minutes is, um, pretty good, even if he didn’t ever play more than 20 minutes.

The Cavs could do a heck of a lot worse for a bench big than DeJuan Blair.  When Blair did play for the Spurs this year, and in the playoffs, he played well, but his minutes were pretty limited.  In 45 total minutes, Blair scored 26 points on .706 shooting, and grabbed 13 rebounds.  Still, he was set up for a lot of wide open looks and putbacks.  He’s not a natural shotblocker either, and he gets most of his buckets at the basket.  He duplicates a lot of what TT does, in a wider frame.  It remains to be seen if he’s really as productive as his offensive numbers, or whether he is a product of the San Antonio system.

DeJuan Blair (left), Tiago Splitter (right)

6’11″ Tiago Splitter (restricted), one of my top free agent candidates, didn’t play very well in the first round, scoring only 7.6 and 3 rebounds per 36 minutes of .357 shooting.  Splitter sprained his ankle in game 3 and gets an incomplete here.  Look for him to bounce back in the next round, when the Spurs are playing a good team.  The fear is though, that Splitter is a good regular season player and a bad playoff one.  Bounce Tiago, bounce.

Gary Neal (restricted) should have played better than he did, going against the defensive sieves that are the LA Laker guards.  Shooting .355/.250/1.000, Neal struggled but he does have some size at 6’4″ and rebounded well for a guard at 4.5 per 36.  He wouldn’t make the worst bench guard for the Cavs but it better not be at anything more than the veteran minimum.  At that price, the Spurs will probably keep him.

For the Lakers, it wasn’t pretty.  Andrew Goudelock provided some scoring punch for the Lakers in garbage time after Kobe went down, but it wasn’t efficient.  Despite a 23.1% usage, Goudelock had a TS% of .488 in 80 minutes and despite scoring 16.2 per 36, posted a negative wins shares and only a 10 PER.  Maybe the D-League MVP will catch on somewhere.  He did show that he could score when nothing hangs in the balance and he might be worth a training camp invite. Darius Morris put up similar stats in blowout losses, but did not get a trophy.

Regular season breakout player, Earl Clark (restricted) laid an egg in this series, shooting .350/.0/.0 attempting no free throws as he left the starting lineup for Pau’s return.  And then there’s Dwight Howard and Antawn Jamison.  Dwight’s not coming to Cleveland… Move along, there’s nothing more to see here.

Denver Vs. Golden State: This was as entertaining a six game series as I can remember, and there were a lot of players playing for a paycheck this summer.  I was super high on Corey Brewer mid season, but he cost himself a lot of money in this series.  In Dino Gallinari’s absence, Brewer had the opportunity to show what he can do as a major contributor for a playoff team.  The results?  Yikes!  Brewer posted a negative -.051 Wins Share per 48 minutes.  He shot .309/.250/.667 for 16 points and only 2.7 rebounds (he’s 6’9″!) per 36 minutes.  In the last two games of the series, Brewer was 1-11 and 1-8 and was outplayed by rookie Draymond Green.  Brewer’s agent, Happy Walters just pulled a mackerel out of the freezer to mail to Corey.

Jarret Jack, conversely, made himself a lot of bank this of series.  He had a monster series against Denver, exploiting Ty Lawson and Andre Miller when they were put on him.  Jack doesn’t start for the Warriors, but he often finishes, and the Jack/Curry backcourt is another example of the dual hybrid guard offense that so many teams are going to, Cavs included.  Jack shot .526/.308/.906 against the Nuggets and got to the line 5 times per 36 minutes.  He scored 17.8/4.9/6.6 with 3.8 turnovers per 36, with an 18.9 PER, and +35 for the series… The scary thing is he had really good numbers and only shot 30% from 3.  If he hit his regular season average (.404), he’d have been even scarier.  Also a solid defender, If he keeps it up, Jack may end up in a starting gig making $8 million plus somewhere (probably Golden State) this offseason.  This would probably price him out of the Cavs range. Still, he would be a fantastic 2nd or 3rd guard to have on the Cavs to always keep the pressure on the defense.

Google: where you can find an image of Carl Landry with a goofy Russian center in 5 seconds

Carl Landry is another Warrior who’s had a fine regular season and an even better post season.  He’s scoring 22 points and 6.9 rebounds per 36 minutes off .569 true shooting.  He’s posting a 20 PER in 21 minutes a night, and is a great bench power forward who constantly puts pressure on the defense.  He can shoot from almost anywhere inside the three point line.  Consider him a cheaper version of Paul Millsap.  A 3 year gig as the Cavs backup power forward would lock up that spot till 2016.

Timofey Mozgov (restricted) didn’t even get to play, and wasn’t very happy about it.  By all accounts, he desperately wants to go somewhere he can get some playing time, and doesn’t want the Nuggets to extend him a qualifying offer.  With a PER of 12.37 in 9 minutes a game, Mozgov is a big body who could have some utility to the Cavs.  Did I mention he’s 7’1″ and 250 pounds?

Which brings us to perhaps the best pedigreed free agent of 2014, Andre Iguodala who is expected to opt out of his contract this summer and look for a deal with long term guaranteed money.  Denver may have lost, but it doesn’t look like the fault was Iguodala’s.  AI averaged 16 points, 7.1 boards, and 4.1 assists per 36 with just under 2 steals and only 2.5 turnovers.  Shooting better than he has in any playoffs, Iggy posted splits of .500/.483/.720 for a .621 TS%.  The biggest problem? Given how well he was playing, Denver didn’t use him enough.  His usage probably should have been higher than 18.3%.  He was -3 for the playoffs and played well on and off the ball.  His defense seemed adequate, but much of Denver’s problem was that Golden State had too many weapons to guard, and Iguodala couldn’t guard everyone.  Iguodala is a polarizing figure because many feel he won’t be able to compete when his athleticism fades.  I still would like to see him on the Cavs.  A four year deal with a non-guaranteed fourth year starting at $12 million would be the limit of what I’d spend, and it would keep me up at night if it kept me from getting a premier free agent next year.  Also, if the cap goes up, Iguodala will make a lot more than that.  Also, I would regret people the Cavs would be forced to pass on if they had Iggy.

Wilson Chandler, the man with two last names, is a frequently mentioned trade target, as he often seemed superfluous on the Nuggets.  6’8″, 225 pounds, and 25 years old, Chandler struggled with a hip injury to start the season, but finished strong.  Chandler can play at the 2,3, and 4, and spent a lot of time this series guarding Carl Landry and Harrison Barnes.  That didn’t go so well.  Wilson struggled offensively in this series, scoring just 12.6 per 36 with 5.8 boards with splits of .335/.310/.750, with a usage of 18.4.  Wilson is an extremely streaky player who will go on long bouts of above mean and below mean play.  He could be had if Denver looks to cut salary, but my bet is that they let Brewer walk, and hang on to Wilson for now, especially with Gallinari out for the better part of next year.

Los Angeles Clippers Vs. Memphis: +33 for the playoffs so far, trick or treat Tony Allen averaged 2.4 steals and .7 blocks in the first round, playing his normal brand of harassing defense for the Grizzlies.  Not a prolific scorer, but an adequate one in this series, Tony had 12 points and 6.5 boards per 36.  Allen shot decently, rebounded well, and generally caused havoc against the Clips, especially in the closeout game where he posted a 19/7/6 line with four steals.  With a 19.1 PER for the season,  the offensive utility of Tony Allen is still questionable, but his defense is not.  31 years old, and 6’4″ and 213 pounds, Allen is a stat geek’s dream.  He’s consistently one of the better +/- players in the league.  He’s aging, though, and he’s not particularly long.  How much longer can he be this effective?  If he looks to leave, it would behoove the Cavs not to overpay him, and only give him a one year deal with an option or non-guaranteed year beyond that.  Shorter defensive role playing wings generally do not thrive into their mid-30s.  However, he would help change the defensive culture.

In warmups, Bayless is more flexible than Allen. On the court? Not so much.

Jerryd Bayless (player option) might be a younger version of Jarret Jack.  However, Bayless seeems content to let it fly even when he’s not hitting.  With a whopping 30+ usage in 16 minutes a night, Bayless shot .383/.318/1.0, chucking 8 three attempts per 36, with poor rebounding numbers and a 1:1 assist to turnover ratio.  Bayless was also lit up early by Jamal Crawford, but adjusted to play better defense as the series went on.  Let’s pass.  No, really.  I mean stop shooting so much, Jerryd.

Matt Barnes desperately tried to keep the Clippers in this, with a monster closeout game of 30 points and 10 boards.  He frankly, played the best playoff series of his career at 33, scoring 15.8 with 6.7 board per 36, with a .678TS%, but most of his damage came in three games, and he had four games where he shot .400 or below.  Still, he beat a path to the line this series and attacked the basket, but his inability to consistently recover to the likes of Quincy Poindexter hurt the Clips.  I don’t think he’s worth bringing in.  He’s always been volatile on the court, and he seems like a west coast guy, which is my way of saying he’ll be 34 next year.

Chris Paul played, of course, like the best point guard in the league, which he is.  With a monstrous PER of 29.4, and 22/3.4/6.1 per 36, Paul shot a lot this series and was less of a distributor, posting a career playoff low assist percentage, but no one is complaining.  Paul effects the game every second he’s on the court.  It may seem like a done deal, but Dan Gilbert ought to give Chris a call.  Of course Paul is probably irritated by Dan’s attempt to block his trade to the Clippers a couple years ago, but they went to dinner during the famous summer of 2010.  Maybe Dan should call, smooth it over and tell Chris to come play in Cleveland for a max salary and hook up with his buddy from South Beach next summer.  Between Paul, KI, and Akron’s finest, the Cavs would be pretty good.  I put the odds on this happening at .002%, but my notes on Mike Brown coaching the Cavs consisted of a video of Bradley Cooper saying “that’s not gonna happen,” so I’m liking the reverse jinx here.

If the Cavs can’t get Paul, they should consider going after Eric Bledsoe.  I know, they already have two ball dominant guards, but Eric Bledsoe is second only to Mike Conley as the most underrated player in the league.  The Clippers probably won’t have the money to pay him what he’s worth, and they already have an all world point guard.  Would an Andy for Eric trade make sense for both teams?  Bledsoe posted a PER just under 20 in this series and a 22 PER last year.  How athletic is Eric Bledsoe?  He’s a 6’1″ guard who averaged over a block per 36 minutes against Memphis.  He’s absolutely one of the most beastly on ball defenders in the NBA and a pretty good off ball one.  Advanced stats consistently rate him as one of the best +/- players in the league and he was +9 in this series.  Bledsoe scored 14.5/5.6/6.7 per 36, and shot .500 from the field but struggled behind the line converting only .110 this series.  He’s also a bad free throw shooter.  But in the coming hyper athletic NBA, you can never have too many great guards who can defend.

I’d scout Lamar Odom, but I think he’d literally turn into a homeless vagabond who spouted lines from Camus and the Roots while constantly high on tootsie pops if he left L.A. again to play on the north coast.

Chauncey Billups: 18.8 minutes, 4.6 points 1.2 assists, .250/.308/.883.  Time to hang ‘em up Mr. Big Shot.

Ronny Turiaf posted an 11.1 PER in 59 minutes over 5 games.  At 30, he might be a vet minimum big to give the Cavs bigs some toughness and to lay some wood on a guy when the situation calls for it….

DNP (or barely played): Keyon Dooling, Austin Daye (restricted — a Nate fave), Jon Leuer (restricted, sorry Kevin), Ryan Hollins (restricted — not by contract, only by talent and ability to play without looking like a doof).

*Correction: the article originally stated that “With the ability to amnesty a guy like Jefferson, the Warriors would suddenly be under the cap, and have almost $25 million under the tax threshold.”  This was untrue as the Warriors amnestied Charlie Bell instead.

An entertaining first round of the NBA playoffs concluded this last weekend.  How does this concern the Cavs?  Uh…

…Oh.  Right.  There’s quite a few players in the playoffs right now who will be free agents in the offseason.  In addition there’s several players who played who’ll be tempting trade targets.  Let’s look at some.

Miami Vs. Milwaukee: Miami won this one handily.  Miami’s free agents are Ray Allen, Chris Anderson, Mario Chalmers, Juwan Howard, James Jones, and Rashard Lewis.  None of those guys are probably on the radar for the Cavs.  Mario Chalmers and James Jones might be interesting pickups, but James Jones played only 5 minutes.  Hailing from my home town of Anchorage, Alaska, Mario Chalmers would allow the Cavs to have employed every single Alaskan to play in the NBA, joining prestigious Cavs alums Trajan Langdon and Carlos Boozer.  However, he had a particularly meh first round averaging 6.5 points off of .517 true shooting and 4.5 assists per game.  Tough to grade anyone on Miami.  This series was like a butterfly hitting a Buick.  I admit, I didn’t watch a game.

In looking to fill the Anthony Parker/Luke Walton role of seasoned veteran who plays too many minutes, the Cavs could do a lot worse than Mike Dunleavy, who at least offensively acquitted himself well, scoring 19.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per 36 minutes, with shooting splits of .567/.438/.889.  Just don’t ask him to guard LeBron though.  And if you come to Cleveland, Mike, please rock the ‘stache.

Honorable mention: Samuel Dalembert who might be a decent 4th big, only got to play 9 minutes, continuing his career trend of massively underplaying his contract.  Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings got torched by Miami’s guards, but aren’t realistic options anyway.

New York Vs. Boston: For New York, J.R. Smith had a crazy series.  Never afraid to chuck, he threw up 6.2 three point attempts per 36 minutes, and had splits of .364/.333/.692.  He also sat out the famous funeral game because of a suspension for elbowing Jason Terry.  Without Mike Woodson around to keep him from going crazy(er), Smith would be tough to get on board for.  He’s insanely talented but can’t stop shooting.  29 year old rookie, Chris Copeland (restricted) who had a nice regular season, was awful in this series, posting a negative wins score, .375 TS%, and only 1 rebound in 32 minutes of first round action.

Ironically, JR Smith's neck says "swish."

Career underachiever Chris Wilcox is Boston’s only free agent this year, but long time Cavs nemesis, Paul Pierce might make an interesting addition to the team.  Yeah.  You read that right.  Just hear me out.  Cleveland would probably have to give up a draft pick or a young player to get him, and they’d have to eat a lot of 2013-2014 salary, and Boston would try to make them eat Jason Terry, Courtney Lee, or Brandon Bass’s contract (no thanks), but Pierce would be an intriguing one year option in the battle to get the Cavs back to playoff land.  Now would Pierce want to come to Cleveland?  I doubt it.  He’d probably be able to convince Ainge to send him to a playoff team if he gets traded, but who knows?  It can’t hurt to ask.

Pierce had a rough series.  He shot .368/.268/.897 and turned it over 4.5 times per 36.  16.2 points, 4.5 dimes, and 4.8 rebounds looked nice on paper, but those are rough percentages.  BUT… Pierce was playing a ridiculous 42.5 minutes per game on 35 year old legs (an impressive feat) and posting a startlingly high 30.1% usage.  If Pierce could play 28 minutes a night for the Cavs, his efficiency would certainly go up.  According to the Boston Globe, “Pierce’s contract is for $15.3 million next season, but the team can buy him out before June 30 for $5 million should they choose to do so. It’s a highly unlikely scenario, but Pierce could find his name on the trading block once again in the offseason as the Celtics look to remake their identity without a lot of financial flexibility. Trader Danny (Ainge) has a lot of work to do. ” He would eat most of Cleveland’s cap space this year, but would help with the goal of keeping cap room free for 2014.  How about this: the Cavs select this draft’s Paul Pierce, Shabazz Muhammad, and bring in #34 to mentor him for a year?

Bazz and the Truth

Indiana Vs. Atlanta: Lots of Atlantians looked ready to hit the free agent market in this one.  One of the most significant free agents out there, Josh Smith was his enigmatic self, scoring 18.5 per 36 with 8.1 boards, 3.8 dimes, 2 steals, 3.8 turnovers, and only a half a block per 36.  But his shooting splits were as inefficient as ever for a power forward, shooting .433/.250/.528 and jacking up 3.3 threes a game, with two 5-16 games in the series.  UGH.  There’s a reason they’re leaving you open, Josh.  With a career playoff TS% of .482, I wonder if a coach will ever get through to him.

David West was an efficient counter to Smith for Indiana, with 17.8, and 5.9 boards, with 2 dimes, .6 steals, and .9 blocks per 36.  More importantly, he didn’t jack up stupid threes, and finished with a TS% of .550.  He also closed out strong with 21 in a low scoring game to knock out the Hawks.  I said before that West would make a fine addition to the Cavs, but I doubt he leaves Indiana.  Also, I don’t know if there are enough minutes to go around between he and Tristan.  They both can really only play one position.  Still, I’d love to see his focus, professionalism, and intensity rub off on the Cavaliers.  If he does leave, overpaying West on a one year deal would bring solid returns for Cleveland.

Rounding out our tour of power forwards, Tyler Hansbrough (restricted)  played about 15 minutes a game, shot .419 and posted a solid rebound rate of 16.7%, including 22.6% on the o-boards.  He also averaged a mind boggling and comical 7.7 personal fouls per 36 minutes.  To say that I would be embarrassed to have psycho-T on the Cavs would be an understatement.  To say that it would be massively entertaining, and that the Cavs need an enforcer would also be understatements.  This could only work if the Cavs drafted Aaron Craft next year and Cleveland ran a murderous cherub lineup against other teams.

Ivan Johnson (restricted) had a decent series off the bench for Atlanta.  The 29 year old scored 12 points and 6.7 boards per 36, shooting .462/.0/.667.  He had a -7 +/- for the series, and matched Hansbrough’s foul rate of 7.7.  As an enforcer with a jump shot, Ivan probably matches Kevin Jones’s ceiling.  Ivan is a decent finisher at the rim at .658, he shoots .408 from 3-10 ft, and .400 from 16 feet to 3.  He could be a solid backup power forward for the Cavs.

Devin Harris had a rough one here.  The 30 year old 6’3″ former all-star shot .365/.200/.680 in 36 minutes per game starting at the 2-Guard spot for Atlanta.  George Hill and Lance Stephenson pretty much ate him for breakfast.  I think it’s safe to say Harris’ best days are probably behind him.

Kyle Korver had a nightmare matchup, playing 30 minutes a game off the bench.  For all intents and purposes, he was Atlanta’s starting small forward, and going against Paul George and Co. wasn’t easy.  Korver shot .388/.353/.917, scoring 12.4 and grabbing 4.1 boards per 36, with his patented “I’m shooting off this screen whether you like it or not” offense.  Korver’s never been a great playoff performer when the defense gets ratcheted up, with a career FG% of .408 in the second season but he has been there for the last six years.  He is a floor stretcher, plus he had a pretty nice regular season with an 82games simple rating of +4.  He could also take Walton’s place as the team’s former Tiger Beat pinup.

Jeff Teague (restricted) also didn’t fare well against the Pacers’ D, with splits of .333/.300/.821.  He was particularly bad in game 5 of the series shooting 3-16.  Still, he’s a solid passer at 5.1 dimes, and 2.4 turnovers.  The Cavs don’t need another 6’2″ point guard though.  It will be interesting to see what Teague makes this offseason.

Al Horford is a trade target that has been brought up in case Atlanta tries to tank for Wiggins.  Horford was one of the few bright spots for Atlanta in this series.  with 16.5 points, 8.8 boards, 3 dimes, a steal, and a block and only 1.5 turnovers per 36.  (He also played 36 mpg).  He shot .494/.0/.667 and posted a PER of 19.2.  He’s been in the playoffs every year since his rookie year and never won a thing.  His 16.8 rebound percentage could stand to be a little higher, but he was efficient on offense.  He was quick enough and a good enough jump shooter to score on Hibbert, and big enough to score over West.  He’s an excellent jump shooter shooting over .420 from everywhere on the floor, and .753 at the rim this season.  His post game is fantastic: he’s a .445 shooter from 3-10 feet.  Needless to say, if Atlanta makes him available (they won’t), the Cavs should consider parting with their first pick.

Brooklyn Vs. Chicago: Lots of prospects here.  For Brooklyn, Andre Blatche acquitted himself fairly well.  With 18.8 points, 8.9 boards, and 2.3 assists per 36 minutes, and .500 from the field and .824 from the line, Blatche posted by far his best playoff series.  +17 for the series, Blatche was Brooklyn’s best bench player, but his foul rate of 3.7 per 36 with only .8 blocks doesn’t exactly scream shutdown defender.  As much as it pains me to say it, the 6’10″ 26 year old is an interesting prospect who posted a PER over 21 in the regular season.  The Cavs should do their due diligence on him, and then probably sign someone else.

For the Bulls, Nate Robinson had a monster of a series, including one of the more entertaining crunch time performances in recent memory, when he dropped 34 in 29 minutes across regulation and three overtimes.  17 Points, 3.6 assists, and a steal per 36, the 5’9″ Robinson played the most meaningful basketball of his career in this series, with a PER of 19.3, and was pretty stellar for a team that desperately needed the scoring punch.  He shot .505/.364/.818 and Thibs was able to mostly negate his disadvantages on defense.  But…  Nate Robinson doesn’t really fit the Cavs.

Marco Belinelli was another super sub in this series.  Pressed into service in his first two games, Marco scored 24 and 22 as a starter and logged over 40 minutes both games.  He finished the series with a 21.1 PER, and splits of .467/.350/.905: decent numbers, because he was forced to shoot a lot.  Chipping in 4.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists per 36, Bellineli was a key reason the Bulls won.  At 6’5″ and 27 years old, Bellinelli would probably duplicate C.J. Miles’ role on the Cavs.  Marco was also uninspiring in the regular season with a PER of just over 10, but if the Cavs walked from C.J., Belinelli might be a more seasoned upgrade.

35 year old Nazr Mohammed provided a veteran big body, and played some key stretches when Bulls fouled out of certain games.  He had a pretty good series for being 15 year vet with a 21 PER in limited but effective minutes.  I don’t know if he has a reputation for it, but he is certainly someone who could come in and give the Cavs a solid veteran who could help their bigs develop and play spot minutes.  He’s been around winning programs in Charlotte (yes, Charlotte was a playoff team in ’09), OKC, and Chicago over the last 5 seasons.

Stay tuned for the West in the next couple days.