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Glass Half Full Draft Reflection

Sunday, June 26th, 2011

The draft is over, so this will be my last posting to Cavs:the Blog for a while. Writing these entries does take a lot of time. Lots of credit to John Krolik, for maintaining such a high quality blog for the last several years.

My “reaction” to the draft was a look at draft day from a “glass half empty” perspective. This will contrast that; reflecting on things that went well, as I want to end on a positive note. The negative reaction was based on spending a lot of time, as the Cavs: the Blog Draft Expert, thinking about the draft and having formed opinions on what the Cavs could do. I strongly preferred the Cavs to draft Jonas Valanciunas with #4. I preferred the Cavs do something like trade the #32 and #54 to the Spurs for #29, and take Jimmy Butler. Or at #32, draft Jon Leuer and keep him. Basically something to end up with a player from the 32 pick. At #54, I preferred a lot of players over Milan Macvan. I was unsatisfied with three of the Cavs four picks and dwelled on that. I still would have preferred different selections (and am confused about all the PF’s), but ultimately I’m just a fan with a computer. The Cavs have ways to quantify player contributions that I can’t begin to understand, and they like Tristan Thompson. Here are the positives I see in the drafted players:

Kyrie Irving – It’s folly to forget the Cavs’ good fortune of acquiring the #1 pick in the draft. The Cavs took on an extra $12 million in salary commitments to acquire a likely late lottery pick in a weak draft. Obviously this pick became #1 and has allowed the Cavs to begin laying a great groundwork for the future. Kyrie Irving is an excellent young point guard. The low end of his potential is considered as an above average NBA starter and the high end is as an All-Star. He’s everything a point guard should be; an efficient scorer, good shooter, quality distributor, hard worker, and intense defender. At 19; he is mature and confident, and appears to have a great NBA career ahead of him. On Thursday, the Cavs re-building process took a big step forward in acquiring Kyrie Irving.

Tristan Thompson – Going into Thursday, the Cavs had one player under 25 that was potentially a part of the long range plan (my opinion, see draft reaction). With Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson, that number has tripled. Thompson still needs to develop his offensive skills, but he undoubtedly brings a lot to the table on defense. He has good size and strength for a 20 year old and was the most agile big man at the draft combine. Thompson should be able to defend power forwards in the post, on the perimeter, and even cover some small forwards. Per 40 minutes, he averaged 3.1 blocks and 1.2 steals in his freshman year. He had very effective defensive games against two other lottery power forwards. In a narrow NCAA tournament loss, he held Derrick Williams to 17 points on 42% true shooting, and in a mid-season victory over Kansas, he had five blocks while the Morris twins struggled to the tune of 26 total points on 42% true shooting. As John noted in his post draft summary, the Cavs were very lacking in defense last year; and Irving and Thompson will both step in and begin restoring the Cavs commitment to defense. Finally regarding Thompson; I would be remiss to not mention that he rated as the third best prospect in John Hollinger’s 2011 draft rater. Hollinger’s draft rater is not perfect, but it historically has been good at picking top performing big men.

So there are definitely positives from draft day that I didn’t discuss in my “reaction”piece. Similar to the reaction though, I still am look forward to an interesting trade, a 2011 – 2012 NBA season, and the start of the Irving / Thompson era in Cleveland (complete with a championship where Thompson shuts down Durant).

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Posted in Draft Profiles, Off-Season Moves | 15 Comments »

Another Cavs Draft Reaction – by Kevin Hetrick

Friday, June 24th, 2011

The following post is fairly critical of the Cavs’ draft day decisions. I will preface the post by noting that the Cavs have much more information at their disposal than I do and surely have very talented people working on their player evaluations. They could also have a big trade in the works. Finally, it is foolish to evaluate a draft one day afterwards. With that said…

My reaction to the Cavs’ draft is confusion. Draft day started with so much promise. The Cavs had the 1st and 4th picks, two second rounders, a huge trade exception, and an owner willing to spend money. The options seemed limitless and, at a minimum, it appeared the day should end with the Cavs having two long-term starters and a quality role player in tow. Something completely different happened. No picks were bought or traded for; instead a pick was traded away. At #4, the Cavs reached for a player that most had in the 8 – 10 range; who also plays the same position as two of their three best players under the age of thirty. Of their fifteen players, the Cavs have four point guards and six power forwards. Are the Cavs trying to remake themselves as the Minnesota Timberwolves? The trade exception expires in two weeks. Surely a trade is coming. This can’t be the last memory prior to a depressing lockout, can it? For pick by pick analysis:

Kyrie Irving – Kyrie should be the Cavs point guard for the next 12 years. If I was taking a glass half-full approach, more time would be spent discussing this pick.

Tristan Thompson – After the Irving pick, my assessment of the Cavs current roster of players under 30 would have been:

Part of the 10 year plan – Kyrie Irving

Part of the 5 year plan – Anderson Varejao

Gets one more year to prove he belongs as a starter in the five or ten year plan – JJ Hickson

Belongs in the NBA, but isn’t part of future plans – Daniel Gibson, Ramon Sessions. I’m sorry, Boobie. You were fine when the Cavs dominant ball handler was a 6’9” small forward. Now that the dominant ball handler is 6’3”, it’s time for us to go our separate ways. Thanks for the memories and good luck with your continued NBA career.

Players with one more year to prove they at least belong on an NBA bench – Samardo Samuels, Ryan Hollins, Semih Erden, Christian Eyenga, Manny Harris & Luke Harangody.

The top five are point guards and power forwards, so the Cavs could really use a center and some wing players. Hickson, Gibson, and Sessions would have been available for the right price. Fortunately for the Cavs, the best player available was a center; Lithuanian Jonas Valanciunas. Jonas is seven feet tall with a 7’-4” winspan. He has been a great U18 player in Europe and had a very promising season in the Euroleague, the second best professional basketball league in the world. Some scouts thought he could eventually be the best player from this draft; and two of the best run organizations in basketball (Spurs and Thunder), were rumored to want to trade into the lottery to draft him.

Then the Cavs draft Tristan Thompson. I liked Thompson well enough and had him rated as the #11 prospect; but he wasn’t the best player available and fills a lesser need than Valanciunas. Despite being a freshman, Thompson is 20 years old (2 months older than Derrick Williams, 14 months older than Valanciunas). Thompson has great potential as a defensive player, but overall he is very raw. A few random stats on him:

 Draftexpress.com compared 17 big men’s situational play. Overall, Thompson was fourth to last for points per possession (ppp). His 0.747 ppp on post-ups was second to last and his 0.654 ppp on jump shots was the worst, despite taking less than one jumper per game.

 Thompson got to the free throw line more frequently than any other big man; however he only shot 49% when there. Thompson is a very raw offensive prospect. He scores on putbacks, cuts, and occasionally in isolation situations when he can beat less athletic players off the dribble. He will face many fewer “less athletic” players in the NBA.

 Thompson was a great offensive rebounder, grabbing 14.0% of available offensive rebounds. If he can eventually rebound with the same efficiency in the NBA, he would be a top five offensive rebounder for a power forward. The flip side is that he only grabbed 13.6% of available defensive rebounds. It’s pretty rare for someone to rebound better on offense than defense. Even if he can grab defensive rebounds at the same rate in the NBA as in college; he would rank as a bottom ten power forward in the NBA, comparable to players like Danilo Gallinari and Rashard Lewis. His poor defensive rebounding is generally attributed to poor fundamentals and positioning. He definitely needs to improve these skills in order to fill his most likely role in the NBA.

Hopefully time reveals that this draft is a huge success for the Cavs, but one day later it’s hard to get excited about Tristan Thompson at #4, considering the huge potential that the start of draft day promised.

#32 pick – This pick was confusing when the Cavs picked Justin Harper. Another power forward? The Cavs and Timberwolves should play one game next year where all that plays is point guards and power forwards. Anyways, Harper was at least a quality addition and a player that I had rated as #31 in the draft. Then the Cavs traded him for future 2nd round picks. What? I thought the Cavs were the team that was going to be buying draft picks; or they were going to trade #32 and #54 to move into the late part of the first round. Instead they punted? Perhaps with the lockout coming, the Cavs thought it was better to have picks in future years. Maybe they tried to trade into the late first round and draft Nikola Mirotic, but the Bulls made a better offer. Regardless, as far as short term satisfaction is concerned; the outcome of the #32 pick is surely lacking. Even for long term considerations, the value of two picks in the 40 – 50 range is unlikely to have better benefit than picking someone at 32 this year.

Milan Macvan – This is a throw away pick. Macvan is 6’9”, 265 lbs. He is technically a center in Europe, but there is no way he ever plays center in the NBA at 6’9” with poor athleticism (so the Cavs drafted another PF). Even as a PF, many expect he will never play in the NBA; both due to lack of necessary ability but also due to lack of desire to come to the NBA. He is a totally serviceable center in the Euroleague, and I wish him a great career. If the Cavs wanted to stash a Euro here; they could have drafted Adam Hanga (who the genius Spurs drafted at #59) or Georgi Shermadini, a 7’-1” center who had a PER of 23 in fifteen Euroleague games this year. There were also at least ten American players that were drafted later or weren’t drafted, that are more likely to see minutes in the NBA than Macvan (ten players with a chance greater than zero).

Like most Cavs fans, I was disappointed by yesterday’s outcome. I hope that several years from now, when I re-read this, all I can think is: “Wow, I was really dumb for doubting the Cavs. They never would have won their NBA championship if Tristan Thompson didn’t lock down Kevin Durant like that. I wonder if they’ll retire his jersey some day?” For now though; I’ll hope for an interesting trade, a 2011 – 2012 NBA season, and the start of the Kyrie Irving / Tristan Thompson era in Cleveland.  (I added Thompson to the last sentence as an edit.  Welcome to Cleveland, Tristan.  Hopefully any doubts only drive you to become a better player.)

Posted in Draft Profiles, Off-Season Moves, Opinion | 36 Comments »

On the Cavaliers’ draft

Thursday, June 23rd, 2011

The good news is the good news; The Cavs made the right choice with the #1 pick. Irving is ultra-safe, he has more upside/star potential than he’s being given credit for, and there’s a clear plan in place for him. He can platoon with Baron in order to keep some pressure off of him for the first year, take the lion’s share of the minutes from Baron in the second year, and fully take over in year three. And with Irving’s ability to shoot, I have no doubt that Baron and Irving will both be on the floor to finish the games, which is far more important than who starts. The Cavs got the best player in the draft. That’s a good thing.

Now, about that Tristan Thompson pick. What the heck. I see three basic scenarios for why the Cavs decided to go with Thompson:

1. The Cavs picked Thompson for someone else, with the belief that they would be able to trade back, still get Jonas, and get another pick to boot.

This has been the main theory in the comments, and it seems to make sense. Because of the buyout, it looked like Jonas would be available in the 7-10 range, where Thompson was expected to go. Grant may well have had a deal in place with one of those teams, picked Thompson for them, and then got a sharp shock when the Raptors passed on Knight, Walker, and Biyombo to take Big V. (Turns out the Raptors’ new coach actually realizes that having a true center who plays defense is a GOOD thing in the NBA.) Not good GM work. Not good GM work at all.

2. The Cavs weren’t willing to wait a year for Valanciunas, and wanted to give the fans something in 2011-12 after an abysmal 2010-11 campaign.

I give Gilbert and Co. credit, because I don’t buy this theory. Thompson isn’t anyone’s definition of a sexy pick, and by all accounts he’s too much of a project to step in and make the Cavs significantly better this season. If they wanted to go the “exciting, win now” route, they would’ve taken Williams with the #1 and Kemba/Knight with the #4. I think the Cavs tried to do what was best for the team going forward, not what was best for ticket sales in the long-term.

3. The Cavaliers honestly believe that Tristan Thompson is a better prospect than Jonas Valanciunas.

Maybe this is what Chris Grant and Co. believe, and they have more scouting information than I do, but I would disagree with that assessment. Thompson can’t play center, can’t shoot or score in the post, doesn’t pass, draws a lot of fouls, is a serious shot-blocker, and is a great rebounder.

The Cavs certainly needed a shot in the arm when it came to defense and rebounding, but I have no earthly idea how a Varejao (who is Cleveland’s best player)/Thompson frontcourt is supposed to work. Andy can play the center position, but he’s better as a four, and needs someone who can either stretch the floor, post-up and give him opportunities to cut, or make good cuts himself and let Andy operate from the high post. Thompson can do none of those things.

The Cavs came into this draft with one really good player under the age of 30, and that player is a great defense-and-rebounding power forward. With a top-5 pick, they took a defense-and-rebounding power forward instead of a potential franchise center who is a true seven-footer, had a higher overall FG% than Thompson did on shots at the rim, and makes 85-90% of his free throws instead of 48% of them. I’m having a hard time selling myself on this pick.

The Cavs got the best player in the draft and got a defensive upgrade that they desperately needed, but I can’t help but feel like they royally screwed up the Valanciunas situation and missed a great chance to put two core pieces in place for the future. However, we won’t know any of this until we actually see Thompson on the floor next season, assuming there is one, and Valanciunas on the floor in 2012-13, assuming he comes over. For now, the team is better today than it was yesterday. The only problem is that it’s hard to shake the feeling they could have done a lot better in this draft.

Posted in Draft Profiles, Opinion | 35 Comments »

The Cavaliers draft Justin Harper

Thursday, June 23rd, 2011

The Cavaliers have selected Justin Harper with the 32nd pick of the draft. Our profile on Harper can be found here. I am fine with this pick.

Posted in Announcements, Draft Profiles | 6 Comments »

The Cavaliers draft Tristan Thompson

Thursday, June 23rd, 2011

The Cavs passed on Jonas Valanciunas and drafted Tristan Thompson. Here is our draft profile on Tristan Thompson. I do not like this pick.

Posted in Announcements, Draft Profiles, Off-Season Moves | 86 Comments »

The Cavaliers draft Kyrie Irving

Thursday, June 23rd, 2011

It’s been predicted for months, and now it’s official. Kyrie Irving went 1st overall in the draft, and he went to the Cavaliers. My post on the Cavs’ draft will come later tonight. For now, here’s Kevin Hetrick’s draft profile on Irving.

Posted in Announcements, Draft Profiles, Off-Season Moves | 4 Comments »

#54 pick – Draft Profile

Tuesday, June 21st, 2011

The draft is this Thursday. It’s been fun providing these Draft Profiles and hopefully they’ve spurred some good discussion of what the Cavs can do in the draft. The remainder of my top 30 are:

14. Nikola Vucevic – Very big, versatile scorer. Anchored PAC-10’s best defense.
15. Tobias Harris – Quality offense and rebounding and turns 19 next month.
16. Jan Vesely – I view Vesely as an athletic finisher and energy player
17. Jordan Hamilton – Good offense will help offset disinterested defense.
18. Chris Singleton – Impressive defensive player that would benefit by developing three point range.
19. Jimmy Butler – I like what he brings to the table
20. Klay Thompson – Good shooter but limited as a play maker and defender
21. Reggie Jackson – PER, offensive rating, on-court splits really like Jackson.
22. Marshon Brooks – For some reason I think of Jamal Crawford, a scorer on average teams.
23. Josh Selby – Explosive athlete. A year ago, was considered one of the best in class of 2010.
24. Jon Leuer – Quality Stretch 4
25. Donatas Motiejunas – Disappointing Eurocup season. Lacks defensive intensity.
26. Darius Morris – Big point guard, could play similar to Andre Miller.
27. JaJuan Johnson – Good athlete and mid range shooter, could contribute on offense and defense.
28. Nikola Mirotic – Talented 20 year old European. Would be higher except for contract extension with Real Madrid.
29. Charles Jenkins – Had a great senior season in a surprisingly strong conference (3 tournament teams)
30. Norris Cole – Great pick and roll point guard who has been impressing in workouts.

Regarding my prior rankings, I wouldn’t draft Fredette at #13. He is apparently looking very good in workouts, but the later parts of the draft will include Charles Jenkins, Norris Cole, Ben Hansborough and Andrew Goudelock. If a team wants to draft a scoring point guard that is a potential defensive liability; there should be better value than picking Fredette in the top 13.

The following players won’t be drafted, however they deserve an “honorable mention” as players to try out in summer leagues or pre-season: Gilbert Brown and Brad Wannamaker from Pittsburg, Josh Harrellson from Kentucky, Damian Saunders from Duquense, Willie Reed from St. Louis, and Jacob Pullen from Kansas State.

Obviously with the #54 pick expectations are low, but without further ado; the players the Cavs should consider:

Adam Hanga – Hanga is a 22 year old, 6’7” tall shooting guard from Hungary. He is a good athlete, who last week scored 16 points in the Adidas Eurocamp all-star game. He is a quality shooter and scorer; averaging 17.6 points in the Hungarian League this year with 58% true shooting and 37% three point shooting. He is also disruptive on defense, averaging 2.8 steals per game. He recently signed a two year contract to move up to the Spanish ACB, generally regarded as the best national league in Europe. There are reasons for the Cavs to draft a player that will be in Europe for a few years. The Cavs have 13 players under contract next year. If they sign 3 or 4 players from this draft class, they will need to buy out some existing players. Also in the event of a lockout; it will be beneficial to have a young player developing in a high quality European league, rather than not playing competitive basketball.

Jereme Richmond – Richmond just finished his freshman year at Illinois. He was a McDonald’s All-American and the 27th rated player in the class of 2010. He is a 6’7” small forward who is highly athletic, reflected in the fastest ¾ court sprint at the NBA combine. He had a relatively productive season with 7.6 points and 5.0 rebounds in 22 mpg and showed flashes of great defensive potential. He needs to get stronger and is an un-developed offensive player, but he is only 19 and if the Cavs wanted to buy-out Joey Graham and sign Richmond; that seems fine.

Michael Dunigan – Dunigan is a big body (6’10”, 240 lbs, 7’3” wingspan) that could find a place in the NBA. He was the 24th rated senior in the class of 2008 and attended Oregon. Following a sophomore season marked by poor conditioning, when he averaged 9 points, 5 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks in 20 minutes per game, Dunigan left Oregon and went to play in Europe. In Europe, Dunigan has improved his conditioning and had a solid season playing for an Estonian team. In the elite division of the Baltic League (the12 best professional Lithuanian, Latvian, and Estonian teams), Dunigan played 22.7 minutes per game and averaged a solid 12.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, and 1.2 steals. He was foul and turnover prone, but was named 3rd team all-Baltic league as a 21 year old rookie. He turns 22 next month.

Jon Diebler – Diebler is a 6’6” shooting guard from Ohio State. He does only one thing well, but fortunately for him he does it better than everyone else. Diebler is an outstanding shooter, leading the NCAA this year in 3-pt shooting percentage, true shooting percentage, and offensive rating. He shot 50% on threes this year, and over the last three years has made 326 of 734 from long range (44%). He has one definite NBA level skill and that could make him worth the 54 pick.

Jamine Peterson – Peterson is a 6’5” small forward with a big 6’10.5” wingspan. He turns 23 in July after having played two years at Providence and one year in the NBA D-League. His time at Providence ended due to him being dismissed for breaking team rules, but he was very solid when there. In 2009 – 2010 in 30 minutes a game, he averaged 19.6 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 1.3 steals; good for a PER of 28. Last year in 24 minutes a game in the D-League, he averaged 13.4 points and 5.9 rebounds while shooting 36% from long distance. Peterson could earn a place in the NBA as a 9th or 10th man, and that’s about all that can be hoped for at #54.

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Posted in Draft Profiles | 5 Comments »

On the Valanciunas buyout

Tuesday, June 21st, 2011

Well, things have just gotten more complicated. According to Chad Ford, there are some buyout issues with Jonas Valanciunas, who most mock drafts had going to the Cavs with the #4 pick and whom I’d kind of fallen in love with. Obviously, things are now more complicated than they were. As I see it, the Cavs now have the following options:

1. Draft Irving at the #1, Draft Valanciunas at the #4, and wait a year for Jonas to come to these United States of America. This would be what I would want, but it appears unlikely the Cavs will pursue this option.

Here’s my justification: Do I think that Valanciunas will be a better player in the 2012-13 season than Kanter or any other non-point guard player who will be available at the #4 spot? I do. Do I believe the Cavs are ready to make a serious playoff run in 2011-12? I do not. Given those two conclusions, I think it makes sense to take the best player, wait the year, and not settle on a lesser player because of impatience.

Top-5 picks do not come often. And if the Cavs end up being horrible again and getting another high-lottery pick next season instead of flirting with the 7th or 8th slot, I think that would ultimately be for the best. The variable here is that we never know exactly how buyouts will go — the Cavs certainly wouldn’t want to risk a Rubio, or, dare I say it, Fran Vasquez situation.

2. Take Irving at the #1 spot and take Kanter with the #4 if the Jazz go with Knight. If the Jazz go with Kanter, you take a risk on either Vesely, Leonard, or Biyombo with the #4. I like Kanter a LOT less than I like Valanciunas, because I worship at the altar of Joakim Noah and Tyson Chandler and think Al Jefferson is the most overrated player in basketball. This DX tidbit is pretty much a deal-breaker for me on Kanter:

This lack of experience shows up first and foremost on the defensive end, where Kanter was incredibly ineffective in the film we watched. His fundamentals, instincts and positioning leave a lot to be desired. He can often be found standing straight up in the paint with his arms down, putting in little to no effort. He rarely boxes out his opponent and generally looks disinterested in anything that has to do with defense. He rarely bends his knees and often fails to get back in transition–doing very little to protect the paint when he does.

From DraftExpress.comhttp://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Enes-Kanter-5168/#ixzz1Ptfnq191

Yikes. Thanks, but no thanks.

Vesely is a huge question mark. I don’t know much about Leonard, but he seems to scream “need pick.” I could actually sell myself on Bismack. He would be considered a MASSIVE reach, but it looks like he’s the best defensive player in several drafts, and the team DESPERATELY needs a defensive identity.

Varejao’s high-post skills actually do exist, he’s a natural 4 on defense, and both Varejao and Biyombo are great post defenders as well as great help-side/rotation defenders. There are worse default options than being able to roll out one of the best defensive frontcourts in the league. And a Biyombo/Hickson froncourt could actually work defensively, even though I think Hickson’s high-post skills aren’t good enough to make that frontcourt really click offensively.

3. Take Williams with the #1 and pick either Knight or Walker with the #4. I don’t love this. I’m 95-100% sold on Irving, 75-80% sold on Williams, and maybe 50% sold on Walker and Knight. Maybe they’ll become the next Durant and Westbrook, but I’m of the Moneyball theory of scouting to some extent — pro basketball isn’t a great place for guys to remake themselves. Knight and Walker weren’t efficient in college. Irving was hyper-efficient. Williams was hyper-efficient, but he doesn’t have a defensive position and the Cavs desperately need a defensive identity.

This draft is about building from the ground up. I think that starts with a guy who can definitely run an offense (Irving), and a guy who can help give the Cavs a defensive identity at the 4. I don’t know if an offense can be built around Williams, and in this scenario, the Cavs don’t address any defensive concerns. I don’t like that.

4. Try and pull off a trade with the #4 and land Irving and Williams. I actually have mixed feelings about this (DEFENSE DEFENSE DEFENSE), but Williams is certainly a hell of an offensive player, and an Irving/Williams tandem would give the Cavs something to build around offensively.

The question here is whether it can actually happen. I have no idea what it would take to get that #2 pick. If it’s Hickson, Baron Davis, and the #4, done, although I would honestly have some reservations about giving up on Jonas. For the love of Pete, he’s a true 7-footer who loves defense and rebounding and shot 70% from the field and 90% from the FT line. Defense and efficiency incarnate. I LOVE defense and efficiency, which is why I hate Antawn Jamison.

Those are the options as I see them. We’ll see which one the Cavs go with on Thursday. For now, I’m sad that Cavs: The Blog’s official man-crush on Jonas Valanciunas seems like it will end before it ever really got a chance to begin. I shall weep for thee, Jonas. By the way, a pox on the house of Harrison Barnes, unless the Cavs are really bad again next season. (I actually might have taken Jonas over Barnes. I’m telling you, I am/was a man obsessed.)

Also, any time Sasha Kaun wants to come over, that would be very nice.

Posted in Draft Profiles, Opinion | 27 Comments »

Drawings from the Notebook of Chris Grant (episode five):

Sunday, June 19th, 2011

What really happened to the Heat in the Finals...

Well, we’ve veered a bit off the draft this week…but I still thought this applicable.

Also, I’m pretty sure it’s entirely accurate.

Happy Sunday everyone! By the time I post another cartoon (next Sunday), may the Cavs have their foundation in place.

-Ryan

……………………..

(Drawing from CFAAP.com, colors by Nico Colaleo.)

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Posted in Draft Profiles | 3 Comments »

Vote No for Vesely at 4

Saturday, June 18th, 2011

This is Kevin Hetrick contributing again. I want to add one last take on Jan Vesely. Vesely just finished his Serbian League season, averaging 14 points and 5 rebounds in the championship series. ESPN has moved him to 4th on their list of top prospects and 5th in their most recent mock draft. I’ve researched what Vesely has done through the years, watched what video is available to me, and I don’t understand the infatuation with him. A top 5 pick should become a top contributor on a playoff team, and I don’t see that. I view Vesely as a great fast break finisher and high energy player; not a player that will be a star.

I will start by comparing the Serbian League to the NCAA and build a very rough case that the professional Serbian League is not higher quality basketball than the top NCAA conferences. The league hierarchy of Serbian basketball is as follows:

 Euroleague: The best 24 teams from Europe’s national leagues participate, including Vesely’s team (Partizan).

 Eurocup: The second tier continental league. One Serbian League team (Hemofarm) played and lost in the round of 16.

 Adriatic League: Features the best professional teams from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Israel, Montenegro, Serbia, and Slovenia. In addition to Partizan and Hemofarm, two other Serbian teams qualified. Partizan was champion, Hemofarm finished 6th, and the other two teams finished 10th and 13th of 14 teams.

 Serbian League: Four additional teams compete with the four teams above for the Serbian SuperLeague championship. These other four teams are lesser than the teams that participated in the Adriatic League; as they finished 4, 6, 7 & 8 in the SuperLeague.

In summary, the Serbian League is not a high level European league. Other than Partizan, there are no Euroleague teams. They only send one other team to a continental league, and the team was not very competitive there. Partizan has won 10 straight Serbian championships and was 18 -2 this year, outscoring opponents by 14 points per game. One of their losses was against a team where the 3rd best player in minutes, points, and rebounds was Brandon Bowman. Brandon played at Georgetown until 2005 – 2006, peaking at 16 points and 8 rebounds per game his sophomore year when Georgetown went 13 – 15. Georgetown got more talented, and Bowman became their third leading scorer and rebounder his senior year. In summary, the 3rd best player on the 4th best team in the Serbian League was the 3rd best player on a 23-10 Georgetown team as a 22 year old. The other team that Partizan lost to this year was led by Michael Lee, who led his Serbian team in minutes, points, and rebounds. Lee was also the Serbian League’s defensive player of the year. He previously led the 2007 – 2008 St. Bonaventure Bonnies in the same categories when they went 8 – 22. So three years later, the best player from the last place team in the Atlantic Ten is now the best player for the 3rd best Serbian League team. I think this begins to build a case that the professional Serbian League is not better than the NCAA.

The Serbian League ended June 8th, and is the source of the stats I use below for Vesely. There is nothing particularly more impressive about his production in the 2011 Euroleague or Adriatic League. As a league’s talent level increases, Vesely’s production decreases. Also across all games in 2010 – 2011, Vesely shot 120 – 256 on free throws (47%). Something is broken with his foul shooting and fixing it will go a long way for his future production.

Now I will make a comparison to sum up where I rate Jan Vesely. Jan Vesely will be played by John Wesley. Tristan Thompson will be played by Tristan Tomovic. Thompson’s stats are from his freshman year at Texas.

John Wesley is 21 years old and just finished his junior year as a combo-forward at Kansas. He has declared for the NBA draft, and has always been tantalizing as an NBA prospect due to his highlight reel dunks and energy level. He really started to put it all together this year. Per 40 minutes, he averaged 21.8 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.0 turnovers, 1.2 blocks, 1.0 steal, and 5.1 fouls with 58% true shooting. He is relatively raw offensively; scoring on fast breaks and put backs, while still working on his post game and lacking a consistent shot. Scouts were blown away by his length, speed, and leaping at the combine; but are concerned about his agility and strength. His size and energy are good on defense, but questionable lateral quickness and a skinny frame could pose defensive issues in the NBA.

Tristan Tomovic is a 20 year old power forward from Montenegro, who just finished a second season with his Euroleague team. European basketball has rarely seen a player like Tristan. He is 6’9” with long arms, and is strong and athletic. His per 40 minute averages in the Serbian League were 17.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.3 turnovers, 3.1 blocks, 1.2 steals and 3.6 fouls with 54% true shooting. He is raw on offense – scoring on offensive rebounds, cuts, and in transition; but his agility and strength make him a force on defense. He had strong defensive showings against some of the better players in the Euroleague this year.

Who gets picked first in the draft? Wesley scored slightly better and is a more freakish athlete, but Tomovic is also a good athlete and is stronger. Tomovic is younger and not too far behind on offense, while also being more of a defensive force.  Wesley’s team plays five possessions per 40 minutes faster (7% faster), so Tomovic’s stats are even more comparable if viewed per team possession.  If Tristan Thompson was from Montenegro, he’d probably be a top 5 pick. Would John Wesley be viewed similarly to Marshon Brooks; a talented upperclassmen with added appeal due to his athleticism? It would be even more skewed toward Tomovic if John Wesley’s numbers came playing for Xavier in the Atlantic 10. I made the comparison of Vesely to Thompson because both players are developing power forwards who were their teams second leading scorers; however another comparison could have been the Morris twins, who were actually Kansas’ junior power forwards. The statistical comparison of the hypothetical Wesley to the Morris twins is much less favorable for Vesely, especially when accounting for questions about the position Vesely defends in the NBA.

I am not a professional talent evaluator, but it seems to me there is a place for evaluating a player’s “tools” and a place for evaluating skills and production. Vesely has tools. He is fast, long & jumps high, but there aren’t a lot of well-defined basketball skills (besides energy) or a history of great production. With “older” prospects, it seems more credit needs given for skill level and production, and less for “tools”. I have trouble making sense of Vesely as the 4th best player in the draft while the Morris twins are in the mid-third of the first round.

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