Archive for the ‘Silly Posts To Help Us Cope’ Category

A Bunch of Random Observations, One Liners, and Parenthetical References

Thursday, November 21st, 2013

Matthew Dellavedova has stolen our hearts. Maybe he should have been the No. 1 pick.

Could the Cavs just save themselves a lot of money and heartache by using the DraftExpress top 100 prospects list to run their draft every year?

Kyrie Irving has to be embarrassed that Matthew Dellavedova has played better defense in two games than Irving has in any game in two seasons, right?

Matty D should get a start tonight. Though, I’m not sure our perception of his defense against Washington wasn’t amplified by the fact that he was the only one playing it. Also, Randy Whitman helped more than a little.

Watching a Brown/Whitman coaching duel is like watching kindergarteners play Stratego.

Subway’s sponsorship of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire makes me more than a little queasy. <Insert Sriracha joke here>

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Sizing up the Central: The Milwaukee Bucks

Thursday, August 29th, 2013

I know you remember the game the picture above is from.  So do Dion and Andy, as they daily recollect the commitment they made to each other in this moment…”we will never let the Bucks beat us like that again”.

And they’re right; Brandon Jennings is gone.  Following up on Robert and Patrick’s looks at the Pacers and Bulls, I drew the short straw and preview Cavs versus Bucks.  On the other hand though, the Bucks were the Eastern Conference 8th seed last year; this may be the most important match-up for the young, playoff-hungry, Wine and Gold.  On to it…

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Kevin’s Pseudo-Scientific 2013-2014 Projections, Part 3!!

Wednesday, August 28th, 2013

Last week, an “unbiased” and “good case” view for the 2013-2014 Cavaliers season was offered through the lens of basketball-reference.com’s Win Shares data.  More so than any team in the NBA though, the spectrum of likely outcomes spans wide for Cleveland.  Built from an enticing mix of players young and / or repeatedly beset by injury, a 30-win or 50-win season is believable.  A sampling of outcomes driving the team toward another lottery trip looks like: (more…)

Kevin’s Pseudo-Scientific 2013 – 2014 Projections, Part 2!!

Friday, August 23rd, 2013

The week began with an “unbiased” projection utilizing Win Shares for the 2013-2014 Cavaliers season.  That is a fine disposition for a Monday, but heading towards the weekend, the sun shines brighter, skies are bluer; it’s time for a cheerier outlook than 41 wins.

Transitioning to a “good case” only took three adjustments.  The end result with those modified Win Shares per 48 minutes and Win Shares is:

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The Summer of Rationality

Thursday, August 22nd, 2013

Hi! I’m Patrick Redford, new staff writer here at C:TB. Here is Part 3 of my discussion with Nate and Tom.

Most teams exit through out door of the offseason hopeful about their future, if not their present as well. However, it’s dark inside that ride and the sun tends to blind with contrast once you’re outside. Reality will knock a lot of teams on their butts. Prospects will stall out, contracts will go unearned, and promised successes will turn into lottery slots. This is the rule of the offseason, and the zero-sum nature of the NBA obviously prevents every team from improving this year. I have a lot of expertise in this area, having also followed the Kings for years. The last few summers featured the Maloof ship actively sinking, and as it was taking on more and more water we were told, “Don’t worry! John Salmons has come back to save us!”

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Dear Papa Noel…

Monday, December 24th, 2012

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, everyone.  There will be no complaining today or tomorrow from anyone on the Cavs the Blog staff.  December 23rd was Festivus, and we’ve spent the better part of the last month practicing the traditional “airing of grievances,” at least as far as the Cavs are concerned.  So regardless of whether the Cavs won or lost Saturday night in Milwaukee (they won), it seems like a good time to reassess our attitude towards the team.  One of the reasons that it’s good to do this is that when we write about the team, watch the team, and dissect the team on a daily basis, it is easy to forget that these guys are human.  They have families.  They have friends.  They have dreams.  They have fears.  They have stories of tragedy.  They have stories of triumph.

One story that always sticks with me is when I was at a Cavs game several years ago, and they were asking all the Cavs’ about their favorite Christmas memory.  Zydrunas Ilgauskus’ story always stuck with me.  He said (I’m paraphrasing through the haze of memory), “My favorite memory was my rookie year in Cleveland because it was the first year that I was able to have a Christmas tree, because I grew up in the U.S.S.R.”  That story cuts through a lot of BS.  There are more important things in life and in the world than basketball.

One thing I like about the current Cavs team, is that they seem like a pretty good group of guys.  I dare you not to like some of these guys after watching this video of them visiting the Cleveland Clinic Children’s Hospital on December 4th.  In fact, the Cavs website is packed full of lots of great holiday moments.  For a list of some of the many charities that the Cavs support, go here.

So with the warm wishes of the holiday season in mind, we thought it would be fun to come up with a Christmas wish list for the Cavs.  In some cases it was hard to come up with something appropriate, but we tried to delve into the depths of the Cavs’ psyches to get a glimpse into what makes them tick, in order to come up with a crappy gift for each one of them.

Kevin Jones: Our most recent Cavalier addition has been relegated to lugging around basketballs, buying donuts, and generally being the butt of most of the good natured rookie ribbing.  He’ll be getting the ubiquitous Krispy Kreme gift card, for all those donuts he’ll be buying over the next few months.

Donald Sloan: According to his twitter account, Donald Sloan is wishing for tickets to the Cotton Bowl where Oklahoma is playing his alma mater, Texas A&M.  Sadly for him, the Cavs have a game that night.  In lieu of that, the elves have weaved this snazzy t-shirt, commemorating the 2013 bowl game, which should suffice.

Jon Leuer: For a history major in college, and a current NBA player, what could be a better gift than an NBA history book?  One written by Bethlehem Shoals of  FreeDarko.com, a blog that published an NBA history book, certainly seems apropos to me.  May you leave your mark in the sequel, Jon.

Samardo Samuels: The 2008 USA Today High School player of the year lists his favorite show as “Martin” and Will Smith as his favorite actor on his NBA profile.  What better item to get for a man who loves Will and Martin?  Only a commemoration one of the finest duologies by one of the great auteurs of the 21st century: that’s right, Samardo, may Santa bring you an autographed copy of the poster for Michael Bay’s Shakespeare rivaling epic: Bad Boys II.

I'm talkin' 'bout Mike Lowwwery.

Luke Walton: What better gift to give everyone’s favorite deadhead than yet another Grateful Dead boxed set?

Alonzo Gee: For the NBA’s most underrated dunker we’re asking the fat man for an all expenses paid trip to the 2013 NBA all star game to participate in the dunk contest.  We know you can do it, Alonzo.  This is going to happen.

Jeremy Pargo: So judging from his twitter pics, he’s a fan of the striped socks.  So here you go, Jeremy.  I know.  It sucks to get socks.  But these are pretty classy…

C.J. Miles: For the self proclaimed “king of video games” Santa’s trolling ebay for the rare NBA2K13 dynasty edition, which retailed for $99 when it was released and now sells for no less than $150 on ebay and other sites.  Enjoy C.J., I hope I never meet you online, because I’m terrible at that game.

Tyler Zeller, Tristan Thompson, and Kyrie Irving: For the guys that represent the most masked team in NBA history, we’re going to lobby David Stern to remove the requirement that your masks be clear and have the elves make bad@$s custom artwork to strike fear into the hearts of Cavs’ opponents.  If the elves won’t do it, then click on the pic for the guys who will.

Omri Casspi: What should we get him for Hannukah?  (I know we’re a week late).  After lots of research to come up with something appropriate, I decided to leave it up to the experts, and just get Omri a gift certificate to Lax and Mandel, which according to google and their own website, is Cleveland’s #1 Kosher Bakery.

YUM

Dion Waiters: So Dion, I uh, kind of made you a T-Shirt.  That’s right, get your own Saint Weirdo t-shirt, right here.  It’s yours, Dion.  Embrace your enigma.  Embrace your inner saint.  Embrace the weird in wine or gold.

Byron Scott: A tie from E. Marinella of Napoli, makers of some of the finest neckties in the world. I’m quite sure that would be right up Byron’s alley.  Santa, you’d better have some cash.

Zydrunas Ilgauskus: If you’ve seen him lately, you’ll notice he’s quite svelte, and that he wear’s some pretty classy sweaters.  Here’s a tasteful piece from Nordstrums, snooty department store of the west.  Pricey, but we know Z’s on the nice list.

Chris Grant: A treatise on strategy, not that he needs it.  But maybe a book on unorthodox strategy could help him take on the big boys.  But perhaps something even better, a wargame, Hannibal: Rome versus Carthage.  He and Z should stay up nights playing it.  Hint.  We’re Carthage.

Dan Gibert: What should Kris Kringle get for a man who has everything?  A coffee mug, of course.

Daniel Gibson: Don’t know what to get him.  I’m finishing this article at 3 in the morning, checking his mad twitter.  It’s incessant.  It never stops.  My personal favorites, “A turkey sandwich right now would put me in gangsta’s paradise.”  and “I was battling internally with myself and my conscious.. trying to piece it all together” but my favorite is “It’s 2:30 n the morning & I have come to the conclusion that Black folks never see Big Foot, nor do they hunt them. #ItsAWhiteThing”  I don’t know what to ask Santa to get Daniel “boobie” Gibson, so I’ll just say “thank you.”

Thank you Boobie for being positive and hardworking the entire time you’ve been in Cleveland.  I have a feeling that this might be your last Christmas in a Cavs uniform, with your contract expiring, and if it is, I just want to say, that you’ve been a joy to follow for your entire career in Cleveland.  You’ve done a ton of work in the community.  You stuck up for the whole team when LeBron tried to punk us in the comeback game.  You’ve been here since you were 20 years old, and you’ve been nothing but a class act.  You exude a mix of positivity, professionalism, and just enough fun quirkiness that you always leave me with a smile.  And you’re also responsible for my single greatest Cavs memory.  So Merry Christmas to you and your family, Mr. Gibson.  I hope Santa uses his best judgment and brings you a lifetime of happiness, and that you keep ballin’ and helping people here and around the country.  Dang.  I just got a little misty…

Anderson Varejao:  As much as I’d like to get him a spa day, I think I’d rather wish for an All Star game slot.  So if you’re listening Mike Woodson or Eric Spoelstra, you’d better be adding Andy to your squad, cause he’s the most hustlinest passinest funkylayupinest reboundingest statstuffinest center this side of Barra do Chuí (the southermnost city in Brazil), and clearly at the top of Santa’s “awesome” list.   If you don’t give him some run in Houston, Papa Noel will mess your stuff up.

Merry Christmas, and Happy Holidays everyone.

Thoughts on James Harden Part III: It’s Never Too Soon to be Thinking About June.

Sunday, December 9th, 2012

Ah... Summer.

In my last installment of this series, I wrote about what the plan needs to be from here on out for the Cavs.

The Cavs have to start trying to contend in 2013-2014.
In 2013, Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson will be on the 3rd year of their rookie scale contracts, leaving two seasons for them to play before they’re eligible for extensions.  Additionally, the best dollar for dollar player in the NBA, Anderson Varejao will be on his ridiculously underpaying contract at less than $10 million a year for 2013-2015.  Further, the only salaries the Cavs have to pay next year are Andy, Dion, Irving, TT, Gee, and Zeller: the core.  This comes in at $27.6 million.  Given the cap holds for another top 5 pick, and a 15-30 pick , we can estimate a cap hold of around $5-6 million.  So, the Cavs will have a total salary of roughly $34 million.  Given a cap of $58 million, this gives the Cavs $24 million to play with.

Now that we’re in the dog days of December, and the worst part of the Cavs’ schedule, it’s nice to look ahead to a happier time when visions of all stars will be dancing in our heads.  The end of June will mark the start of NBA free agency, that lovely time when career scrubs who’ve had one good year get massively over-payed, and old vets get minimums to be player/coaches.

When I wrote the above, I did not count for the cap holds for the qualifying offers and non-guaranteed contracts of the other members of the team.  As can be seen on the link, the numbers for Casspi, Miles, Pargo, Samuels, Sloan, and Leuer add up to just over $10 million in cap room, all or any of which can be renounced.  Miles, most interestingly has a completely non-guaranteed 2013 salary which can be a nice trade chip for next year in a trade-and waive scenario.  This gives the Cavs anywhere from $14-24 million to play with depending on who they want to keep.  Remember, they MUST spend 90% of the cap, which means around $54 million total.  This means that the Cavs will need to spend a minimum of $10 million on free agents in 2013  just to get to the salary floor, and that’s if they keep all their draft picks and restricted free agents at around their qualifying offers.

I’ve written many times that the new CBA is going to change everything.  Teams over the luxury tax threshold are going to have to make hard choices about who they want to keep.  Only the mega-rich are going to be able to go well over the tax threshold for extended periods: New York, Brooklyn, L.A., and maybe Miami.  With that said, the Cavs plan should be to pluck free agents and restricted free agents from teams that are in danger of going over the luxury tax.  With that in mind, let’s start looking at the 2013 NBA free agent class.

The Max Guys:

In a word, these guys are “the balls”: the Ron Burgundys of their fields: the all stars.  They are getting max salary or close to it.  Most of these guys are going to be re-signed by their current teams, and if they’re not, the odds of them coming to Cleveland are about as high as the odds of the Browns running the table and winning the Super Bowl this year.  Players include Chris Paul, Monta Ellis, Manu Ginobili, Paul Pierce, and Dwight Howard.

There’s one player in this group who might be the longest of shots to sign with the Cavs:

Andre Iguodala: Long coveted by the Cavs, Iguodala has an early termination option that he will exercise unless he gets hurt.  He currently makes $16 million, and would be a fantastic player for the Cavs with his defense, finishing, leadership, and ability to play without the ball and run the floor.  Unfortunately it’s going to take $17 million plus per year to sign him and make Denver think twice.  Also, he’s currently sporting a 14.2 PPG/ 3.8 APG /5.2 RPG/ 1.2 Stl /13.64 PER line (the per game averages will follow this format throughout this post) which is below average efficiency.  He’s also 28 and has a game founded on athleticism and hustle.  He would be a big risk on the back end of a 4 or 5 year deal, but he would give the Cavs instant credibility, as he’s respected around the league.

The Just Below Max Guys:

Most of these could get a close to max contract if the situation worked out right for them.  These are the guys that are going to be using teams like the Cavs for leverage, and we can probably only afford one of them.

O.J. Mayo: Breakout year for him with a 20.9/3.5/3.9 19.25 PER.  The Mavericks fleeced the rest of the league signing him for a paltry $8 million over 2 years last summer.  Unfortunately for them, he will, barring injury, decline his player option for next year and hit free agency looking for a substantial increase on his $4 million dollar per year salary.  Given the future (hopefully) strength of the Cavs back-court, he would be a tough guy to commit $12 million+ per year to.  The Mavs have $44.4 in other salary commitments and they need to pay Darren Collison, so they may or not elect to keep Mayo.  Knowing Cuban, they will probably elect to re-sign mayo, but  if they bow out, there will be plenty of other suitors.

Josh Smith: A VERY intriguing player who would probably be in the max group if he was having a better year.  At 17/3.6/8.4/2 blocks 17.4 PER, he’s been coming on of late, but is shooting only 45% from the field, but a mind boggling 38% from three.  He’s a player who’s always thought he was a stretch 4, who couldn’t shoot like it, yet this year he just might be the player he’s always wanted to.  Also, 82games has him at a net of +9.3 points per 100 possesions.   Smith is 27, and probably has 1 good contract left in him, especially since he’s a player that relies on athleticism and will probably have 23,000+ minutes in his career by year’s end.  Unfortunately, he’s a bit of a head case and the longshot of longshots.  It would take the max and a major dissatisfaction with Atlanta for him to leave.  Additionally, since Atlanta has only $18 million in Salary commitments next year they’ll be able to match any offer.  They’ll be competing with the Cavs for free agents.  Danny Ferry has done an awesome job flipping the Joe Johnson albatross for flexibility.


That's right, I may make more $$ than any other player this offseason.


Al Jefferson: One of the last true centers left in the NBA, big Al has one of the most polished post games in the league.  At 17.4/2/10.7/1.2 BLK &  21 PER, he is having a very good year.  But big Al seems to have good years when his contract is up, and the worry at 27 is that this is his sign and retire deal, especially given his large size and somewhat sketchy injury history.  Given that he brings a very rare combination commodities in the NBA: size, rebounding, and a post game and already makes $15 million, he could command a very large salary of around $19 million per (the NBA max).  The Jazz have 26 Million in commitments, and a lot of holes to fill.  The choice for the Jazz will probably come down to him and…

This one's for Dani.

Paul Millsap: The #1 mentioned 2013 free agent at CtB.  At 14.6/2.6/8.2/1 BLK 18.9 per game, he has had to play a lot at the 3, given the Jazz’s crowded front court, and has stretched his game out past the 3 point line shooting 50% this year, on only 1 SPG, but 46% in general from the floor.  He’s 27 and has a game predicated on athleticism and strong shooting play and around the basket .  With decent durability, he can probably be a good get on a 4 year deal.  He would immediately move TT to the bench, and be a decent 2nd or 3rd option in the Cavs offense.  My guess is it will take about $13+ million a year to pry him away.  He or Jefferson may have to come by sign and trade.

Kevin Martin: The sharpshooter OKC acquired from Houston is currently making $12.5 million, and scoring 15.4/1.7/2.4/1.2 Stl 18PER, shooting .465/.478/.931.  He’s a lights out guy, and would not be a bad player on the Cavs, but at 29, and with the need to overpay him ($13-$14 million to get him), he’s probably not what we’re looking for, even though his offensive skills probably won’t decline too much with age.   He can play either wing position, but isn’t much of a distributor.

David West: A very solid player who at 32 (note the age, Andy trade proponents) sports a line of 17.3/2.7/8.6/1.1 BLK 20.5 PER for the Pacers.  He might be worth overpaying for 2 years to bring some professionalism to the team and work with Tristan Thompson for 2 years, especially given their similar body types.  West currently makes $10 million, and keeping this rate of pay up or even a modest raise for a couple years wouldn’t hurt the Cavs much.  I like him very much as a fall back plan for the above bigs, or even in addition through sign and trade.

Reuinted, would it feel so good?

Andrew Bynum: Who would’ve been solidly in the top tier just 5 months ago, is currently hemorrhaging future money with his knee issues and meh attitude towards basketball.  He’s currently paid $16.7 million and will probably have to sign a make good contract this off season.  If anyone gives him long term big money, he’ll sign it.  This is Gilbert Arenas in 2008 all over again.  The Cavs should RUN from giving a long term deal to a guy with Bynum’s attitude and and knee issues.  If they could take a flyer on him on a 1 year deal with a team option, he might not be a bad gamble.  It will be interesting to see how dumb teams are when it comes to Bynum.

Does it ever get old?

The Intriguing RFAs:

The restricted free agents’ current teams all have the ability to match any offer that the Cavs would give, as long as they extend the player a qualifying offer.  Large RFA offers usually really irritate the teams that own the players rights.

This is my "happy to be in Sacramento" face.

Tyreke Evans: 15.5/3.7/4.9/1.3 STL 17.85 PER is the line this year for the mercurial player from Sacramento.  2010′s rookie of the year has been trapped on the league’s most dysfunctional franchise for the last four years, and had his role shifted in the offense multiple times.  The results have been sketchy to say the least, and he’s currently battling a mysterious knee ailment.  However, he can attack the basket, play three positions, and seems desperately in need of a leader to follow.  He has a $6.9 million dollar qualifying offer that the Kings will probably extend.  Given his remarkable similarity to Iggy’s numbers, but his increased efficiency, wouldn’t he be the perfect high risk/high reward player to bring in on a front loaded contract that the Kings might think twice about matching?  Say $13 million for 2 years, dropping down to $10 million in the 3rd and a 4th year team option?  This also keeps with my plan of pissing off all the other teams by tying up their cap money in restricted free agents.

Brandon Jennings, Darren Collison, & Jeff Teague: Good players, but we don’t need another alpha point guard.  However, the fact that they’ll be taking up other teams’ time and money will be good for us.

Gerald Henderson: 13.3/1/2.7/1.3 Stl / 19.31 PER, Henderson has a $4.3 million dollar qualifying offer, and is currently a very efficient scorer, though not much else, and a lot of that is coming off an otherworldly 63.6% from 3.  He will undoubtedly regress to the mean.  But could be a high value wing.  It will probably take a $10.5  million+/per year offer for his Airness not to match, which is probably a little rich for Gerald Henderson.  Alonzo Gee is a homeless man’s Gerald Henderson at a third of that price.

Tell me he and Andy wouldn't scare you a little.

Tiago Splitter: 6’11″ 240 pound 27 year old super sub for the Spurs.  9.2/1.2/4.7 21.5 PER.  A teammate of Varejao’s on the Brazilian national team.  I’m sure Andy would love to play with him, and he’s probably due for a big pay raise.  With a $5.9 million QO, he will probably get most of the money captain Jack is making this year, stretching his salary to $9 million+.  We could probably overpay to get him at $11 million, which would make for a strange dynamic with Andy, and I’m wondering how much of his numbers are the magic of Popovic.  Still, he might be the most intriguing of the restricted free agents.

Conclusions:

Ideally, we could get one of these guys, and then one of the guys who’ll be featured at the top of Thursday’s article, ToJH (might be time to drop that since none of it is even about James Harden) Part IV: the Mid Tier Free Agents.  As for the guys on this list, my vote is to make a run at Tyreke Evans and/or Tiago Splitter.  Evans is the only quality affordable wing on this list, and a Splitter/Andy lineup would be a thing of beauty.  Tie up those teams cap money if they match, and then if that doesn’t work out, go after David West.  I like Josh Smith and I like Al Jefferson, but I think they’re simply going to cost too much money, and the odds of us getting them are too low.  Being smarter with Dan Gilbert’s money will help the Cavs trade for guys like that or pick them at pirates’ terms when they need to be traded.  As for Paul Millsap?  I think he’s fine, but the guy at the top of  Thursday’s installment in this series is an even better value.

Trends, Ranks, and Outliers

Wednesday, December 5th, 2012

“It’s early.”  Repeat that 3x.  Of course with time: trends, ranks, and outliers become less noisy and more meaningful.  Trends level off, ranks become more stable between games, and outliers become more impressive.  Here’s a few that I researched after a little quiet reflection.

Trending: UPWARD.

Omri Casspi and positive adverbs can stand to be in the same room with each other lately.  Now, I can only count on one hand the number of times I have been forced to pay attention to Omri Casspi on a basketball court since Kyrie Irving had his suit drycleaned.  However, almost every one of those times I saw something positive.  He looks like a walk-on playing defense – earning every minute he gets. (It’s quaint)   He seems to be a three point threat, even though a few of the shots have the body language of “this could be my last chance – better make it count”.  You could make the case that Casspi’s NBA career has been in decline since he arrived on the scene.  But this year might be different.  Casspi’s production in general seems to be trending back up.  Specifically his 3PFG% the last 11 games looks like this.

a healthy 18/36 on the year

If he can keep his 3PFG% above even 40% that would be an asset for this shooting-deficient team (assuming he gets more playing time – something that many on this blog have advocated).  The Cavaliers have no shortage of 3 point gunners, but are lacking in marksmen (at least so far this year).  We’ll check back with Casspi at a later date.  There are some harbingers that he’s on the up and up.

"I don't always google my name, but when I do, I make sure safesearch is on." - CJ MILES the most interesting man on the Cavs bench

Ranks: Dead last, 6th Worst

Is there anything more irritating than a guy shooting contested jump shots off the dribble and missing?  Repeatedly.  With no course correction.  This irritant alienated one fan so much that he blessed the world with this url: http://heylarryhughespleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com/.

I think we need to find that guy and ask him to author:

http://heycjmilespleasetrysomethingdifferentperhapsspottingupforthreeortryingtodrawfouls.com/.

I had high hopes for CJ Miles.  At least until my buddy Wes (@WesEarick) prophesied to me that CJ Miles would be the Cavs 2nd leading scorer.  Given my history debating Wes on NBA topics I had this premonition that CJ Miles was headed for a Lamar Odom-like deterioration.  (He once said Wilson Chandler was a future MVP)  I was looking over Miles’ season stats and one thing that I found particularly jaw-dropping was his 4 FTA to 89 FGA.  Wasn’t this guy supposed to be a pseudo-slasher?  I swear I’ve seen a youtube video of him dunking OVER people.  At the very least, he seems to have some competency putting his head down and driving.  So what the heck?  As it turns out, Miles career FTA to FGA is around .2, meaning, he shoots 1 free throw for every 5 shots.  For comparison’s sake – Alonzo Gee’s career FTA:FGA ratio is .37, almost twice as high.  So clearly, getting to the rack and drawing a whistle isn’t his strong suit.  For the irrationally-optimistic Cavs fans out there I guess we could argue that “CJ Miles just hates flopping” or something.  But 4 for 89?  That’s GOT to be the worst mark in the league right?  Actually no, that record belongs to San Antonio’s Matt Bonner who has yet to attempt a freebie despite 47 FGA.  Once I saw this I was challenged, as Matt Bonner can be pretty valuable.  But my preconception was/is that having a respectable FTA:FGA ratio is a sign of a good player, especially for a wing.  It’s a little more complicated than that, but so far this year, if an NBA player had a higher than league average FTA:FGA ratio his Win Share/48 minutes would also be higher than average.  Obviously the corollary is that owning a less than league average FTA:FGA ratio would have a lower than league average WS/48.  There’s no succinct (sorry RickOH) way to describe the relationship between FTA:FGA and WS/48.  But I think the visualization is kinda neat.  So I put one together here:

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0Bxo35h7IHewyNGhXY1poeVhYMUk ]

Click on the 100% thing to blow it up and then use the arrow keys to scroll along.  The dotted red line is the league average WS/48, and the vertical red arrow is the range.  The dotted blue line is the league average for FTA:FGA and the vertical blue line is the range (which is quite more dynamic).  [A quick note on everything to do with league related statistics: I filter out all players with less than 150 minutes at this juncture.]   Draw your own conclusions from the data, but, on average, it doesn’t pay to have a very low FTA:FGA ratio unless you are an elite spot up shooter or have some other ways to contribute.  So CJ Miles is the worst in the league in WS/48 and 6th worst in FTA:FGA. I think he needs to drastically change both of those ranks immediately.  Actually I think he needs to draw some fouls and hit a few quiet set shots from the stripe to calm the heck down.  Getting to the rim should could open things up for him a bit more –  making him harder to defend.  He needs to change SOMETHING especially if Wes’s “2nd leading scorer” prediction has any hope of materializing. (Although that would be all the proof you need that the Mayans were, in fact, right).

From Oct 30th chat

Outliers: Tristan Thompson’s Block Party

Yes, this title in intended to inflame the masses.  Honestly, it’s the Cavs entire team that is partying, it just seems wrong to have it anywhere other that TT’s house.  I’ve never seen anything quite like this.  I knew the Cavs were getting stuffed at the rim a lot.  But I had no idea how prolific they are at it.  I was also aware that TT’s blocks (the ones where he blocks the OTHER guy) were down from last year.  Digging a little deeper, I learned that the Cavs are worst in the NBA in getting blocked (not completely surprised) but also worst in the league at wagging the finger (a little surprised).  The Cavs block differential?  That is our outlier of the day – and it. is. BREATHTAKING.   For the full effect, click on the image, and then click on it again to get the full screen.

The Cavs block differential (-99) is more than DOUBLE the next worst team – Golden State(-48), who has played without Andrew Bogut for all but 73 minutes this season.  Let that sink in.  I think we can safely tar and feather the next person that utters something along the lines of “Tristan Thompson can be our Serge Ibaka”.

What is the value of spite? A short musing on LeBron James, Cleveland, and this Girl I Used To Love Irrationally, by Ryan Braun:

Monday, February 13th, 2012

In “honor” of LeBron’s coming to town this week:

Now here we have an interesting dilemma, and I’d urge you to think it through before arriving at any, let’s say, decisions…

You know what? Let’s not even start with LeBron. Let’s start with a conveniently analogous anecdote.

****

When I was 22 (a year older than CTB’s own C.S. McGowan), the first girl I’d ever dated broke up with me. I’d made mistakes along the way — mixtapes are cute, but you better be a real lumberjack if you want to bookend one with Aladdin — still, the dumping seemed irrational. I was caring, attentive and I put out reasonably well for a nebbish, sexually-terrified faux-adult whose romantic repertoire prior to that relationship consisted of saying “I’m going to kiss you in 10 seconds,” and then counting down the remaining :09.

In spite of all that, she left me for a disinterested 28-year-old physical therapist.

It was brutal.

It was why, for months afterward, I refused to rehab anything professionally.

And it’s kind of related to the debate at hand.

*****

Two weeks ago, I stumbled on Sam Amico’s now semi-dated article re: the prospects of LeBron returning to Cleveland, and it was that which got me thinking about this again (both the LeBron situation and my beautiful ex — the latter pictured below in a visual approximation).

I’m sure you’ve all read the story.

There is talk, Amico writes, that LeBron is discontent in Miami — “less-than-thrilled with certain aspects of the Heat organization.” It’s not Wade and Bosh, SA continues, it’s “the heavy-handed and disciplined style of Pat Riley.”

None of this is particularly substantive or surprising. That Brian Windhorst corroborated kept me from writing off the return possibility without first giving it some thought…but I did give it some thought and came to the conclusion that we’ll see Obama as governor of Mississippi before we see LeBron, as Windhorst speculates, back in Cleveland and honored with a statue.

To even get us to the precipice of a return would require not only Dan Gilbert’s acceptance of a LeBron reconciliation, but an apology from LeBron himself, plus a general admission of wrongdoing. In other words, LeBron would have to publicly take some responsibility for the split with Cleveland and at least in some capacity, publicly admit he may have done a thing or two to draw Gilbert’s ire.

None of the above is going to happen, and perhaps because of that, the likelihood of the above happening is not really what I’m interested in.

I’m interested in us.

I’m interested in what we might do if the situation presented itself.

*****

When that girl broke up with me, I sulked pretty bad.

I didn’t leave the house for a week. My mom gave me a bell I could ring for ice cream and I just stayed in bed for the whole seven days. It wasn’t a good look for a 22-year-old, and about the only thing I gained from the wallowing was an abject certainty that Night Court was underrated.

I also made possible the taking of this picture:

Dark, dark days.

But then, as if forced to by my mother, the next Monday I got up and moved on with my life. I got a job as the production office intern for a movie filming locally and made such an impression delivering lunches that I was offered a job in Los Angeles, also delivering lunches.

My mom spent a week in bed with the ice cream bell, and then I left.

I won’t say my motivation was to become a famous actor solely to spite the girl who’d left me… but I will write it.

My motivation for moving was to become a famous actor solely to spite this girl who’d dumped me.

I’d never acted.

I’d never been to Los Angeles.

It was a healthy and financially pragmatic move.

But it did do one thing; it allowed me the time and the space to recover. It allowed me to move on with my life. It allowed me to start anew (and/or metaphorically draft Kyrie Irving depending on where you are in the analogy.).

Within three years, I was shopping at Whole Foods and driving a Prius. I was still delivering lunches, but now they were fancy.

I didn’t see that girl again for three years, and I really wasn’t planning on initiating anything ever again until she emailed me one day totally out of the blue…to see how I was doing, to see “how life was treating me,” and to see if I’d be attending the wedding of one of our college friends in a couple of months.

And so we started talking, and reminiscing, and telling each other that there were no hard feelings.

I said I’d be going to the wedding and staying in the recommended hotel.

She asked me what floor I was staying on.

*****

My biggest issue with the sports fan of the 21st century is the following: With very few exceptions, the 21st century sports fan is f’ing fickle! I haven’t been alive long enough to definitively state that things haven’t always been this way…but I’m pretty sure that things haven’t always been this way.

Sports have become a mixed bag of opportunism and sentimentality, admittedly for me as much as anyone. I mourned the departure of Big Z, but in no way did I take issue with his trade. I’ve despised the high-profile player movement of the past few years, but I’m the same guy who was pitching Dwight Howard to Cleveland last week.

And now, in analyzing the tenets of immediate gratification (something that, again, I seek as much as anyone)…I’m starting to wonder at what point will opportunism snuff out the sentimentality that gives sports its heart in the first place? And if that’s a possibility, how far gone are we already?

From the booing of home teams in even the most hallowed of locales (its happening from Cleveland to Green Bay), to the relatively crass pursuit of big-time free-agents in every major sport (again, Dwight Howard), I feel like the opportunism is taking over. This is probably a positive in the NFL-ian way that it keeps everything interesting for everyone always…but it’s not so good in the crafting of true loyalty, of true fans, and ultimately, of the lovable “throwback” players we keep pining for.

There’s a romantic (if idealistic) group of sports fans craving a better kind of athlete.

I think in order to facilitate that, we may need a better kind of fan.

Someone for whom opportunism is not the priority.

*****

That said, I totally get why it is.

We’re back at the reception now and I’ve had four glasses of wine plus I really can’t hold my liquor (At all. That “I’m drunk” picture came after a lone White Russian.) and the/that/my girl is looking more pretty than is probably appropriate at a wedding with a bride.

I asked her how her grad school was going and she told me about her residency.

She asked me how my acting was going and I told her about my appearance in a Swedish life insurance commercial.

And then we just stared at each other for a moment…after which time she asked me if I wanted to see some of the things she’d learned in medical school.

I’ve never been hit on in my life…except for potentially that.

“What floor are you on?”

My floor.

Jim Gray walks in and he sets up the camera.

I am not a role model.

*****

What would you say to LeBron James if he asked to come back (and/or asked you up to room 304)?

First remove the backdrop of improbability, and then, with as much hypothetical honesty as you can muster, ask yourself what would you do if the only thing standing between a 29-year-old LeBron returning to Cleveland, returning to a team featuring an abundance of young talent, a blooming superstar in Kyrie Irving, and potentially another in Harrison Kidd-Davis, was you…

What would you do if the only thing standing between a Cleveland team and a 3-4 year championship run was the return of LeBron James?

In that very specific case (coincidentally, an amplified version of so many other cases)… what is the value of spite, and in how much of that spite lies your credibility as a sports fan (or in my case, as a man in general)? In how much of it lies your ability/right to enjoy a championship?

When LeBron James left for Miami, he was most roundly criticized for copping out.

We’d hoped he’d be the greatest player of the past twenty years, and instead he ended up choosing to play with his only real rival in the league while complaining about “the pressure of going out, scoring 30 every night.”

“Championships are championships,” LeBron ultimately said. The ends justify the means, because presumably, no one remembers the means.

If history proves him right (and while I sincerely hope that won’t be the case, I do realize it might be), would you be willing to sacrifice championship ends for a means that ultimately may not be remembered?

I think the obvious answer is, “Yes, of course. Pride over title any day of the week.”

And I think that’s what I’d want to say… I just hope I’d say it.

I spent my fourth year in Los Angeles listening to way too much Aladdin.

AWARDS WATCH (39.4% of the way through the season):

NBA MVP – LeBron James, SF, Miami Heat (27.9 ppg, 8.2 reb, 6.9 ast). The real purpose of this article was to compare LeBron James to a girl (WIN)…unfortunately, that girl is playing about three levels higher than anyone else is this season. I don’t know if he’s recovered enough good will to actually win MVP, but he clearly should if Miami ends up anywhere near the top of the league. Along those lines, the Heat are a game back of the Bulls and Thunder right now and while he’s tailed off a bit lately, LeBron has been dominant in keeping the Heat afloat despite inconsitent assistance from Dwyane Wade.

CAVALIER MVP – Andy Varejao, PF/C (10.8 ppg, 11.5 reb, 1.7 ast). I’m in the camp that wants a better draft pick and I still thought the Varejao injury was devastating. Andy’s been playing at an All-Star level all year, and to see that momentum interrupted by such a fluky play is immensely frustrating. Silver lining: There’ll be a lot less pressure on him when we land Anthony Davis.

NBA COY– Doug Collins, Philadelphia 76ers. I don’t think the Sixers are a threat in the East, but boy are they are fun to watch. They’re young, they’re well-rounded and they share the ball. I fear they’ll end up a well-constructed team held back by lack of star power…  but in the meantime, much of the credit for their resurgence should go to Collins.

CAVALIER COY – Byron Scott. I’ve made jokes every week about Byron’s lack of competition for this spot, but in truth I’m really impressed with the job he’s done this year. The games we’ve not competed have been few and far between, and the development of our youth (by far the season’s most important facet) seems to be going remarkably well. Tristan Thompson may have plateaued, but Kyrie Irving and Alonzo Gee get better with each passing week.

CO-NBA ROY – Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves (10.9 ppg, 4.5 reb, 8.7 ast) & Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers (18.0 ppg, 3.5 reb, 5.1 ast). I still think Kyrie’s the better player, but with KI missing a few games courtesy of Dwyane Wade’s knee I think it’s fair that Rubio be acknowledged as well. Ricky’s shooting is a substantial limitation, but it’s one some other stars share. It’s striking how much of his game resembles Rondo’s. Rubio is such a good set-up man and he’s far more active defensively than I initially gave him credit for. Ultimately, I don’t know if I see the athleticism to make up for his inability to shoot comfortably from the perimeter…but if he carves out a niche as a poor man’s Jason Kidd/Rondo, I think Minnesota will deal.

CAVALIER ROY – Kyrie Irving, PG. Since I last did this, Kyrie’s started winning games down the stretch single-handedly. It’s been kind of astonishing to watch. I don’t know if he can make the type of jump LeBron did from Year One to Year Two, but he also might not have as much distance to travel. If he can condition himself to the point where he can run (really run) 36 minutes a game… we’ll all have to reassess what his ceiling might be.

…………………..

Ryan Braun writes at CFAAP.com, and posts a picture with an article once every two Sundays (which he often does barely and by PST technicality). He appreciates your reading, and also you in general.

Destination: 2013, Scenario 2

Thursday, January 26th, 2012

In this second installment of potential paths to turn the Cavs into a rising, 50 win team by 2013, the focus will be on several trades for this year.

First though, I want to discuss my expertise with the Collective Bargaining Agreement, or more precisely, my lack of expertise.  Case in point is that in the first Destination: 2013 Scenario, the issue of “front-loading” contracts drew some skepticism.  I should have referred to “signing bonuses”, which may be allowable (see here and here).  Ultimately it’s not important whether the “front-loading” was legal or not; if the contracts were constructed normally, the Cavs’ salaries go up by $2.2 million in 2013 – 2014 and instead of Omri Casspi as backup SF, the scenario is forced to go with “2013 Miami 1st rounder”.  Essentially, there’s minimal difference.  And that’s the important point; any CBA misapplications in these posts should be minor enough to not affect the big picture.  If this proves untrue, I am prepared for a public scolding. 

In this scenario, three trades will continue stocking the Cavs’ cupboard with young prospects.  These trades are:

Antawn Jamison to Charlotte for Desagana Diop, Matt Carroll, Derrick Brown, and Portland’s 2013 1st round pick (owned by Charlotte) – This is a salary dump for Charlotte.  They’re able to take the $11 million they owe Diop and Carroll off the books for 2012 – 2013.  They get hometown guy Antawn Jamison earlier than planned (Jamison has discussed a desire to finish his career with Charlotte).  They would have nearly $25 million in cap space available in the summer of 2012 for Michael Jordan to pursue a big free agent in addition to re-signing Jamison and D.J. Augustin.  For this flexibility, Charlotte’s price isn’t too high; they give up a kind-of-young, kind-of-decent small forward and a future, late first round pick.  The Cavs get those assets in exchange for the right to overpay two players for a year.  Mychel Thompson and Luke Harangody would be waived.

Ramon Sessions and Cavs 2012 2nd round pick to Oklahoma City for Cole Aldrich and Reggie Jackson – The Thunder are a team trying to win a championship this season, and a season-ending injury to Eric Maynor has left them with a roster hole.  Enter Cleveland to the rescue!  Sessions is an experienced option to spell Russell Westbrook for 15 minutes during the regular season and 8 minutes every playoff game.  OKC parts with two young pieces they don’t need.  Cole Aldrich was a lottery pick just 18 months ago, and despite struggles in limited NBA time, he was very effective in a D-League stint last year; finishing third in blocks per game and defensive rating and fifth in defensive rebounding percentage.  In two D-League playoff wins, he averaged 12.5 points, 12.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks.  He’s big, young, & cheap and a more appealing back-up center option than what the Cavs currently have.  Reggie Jackson was the 24th pick in last year’s draft, and the Cavs could take a look at him as a long-term backup to Irving. 

Cavs 2012 1st round draft pick plus Hornets 2012 2nd round draft pick (Cavs owned) and Portland 2013 1st round draft pick (Cavs owned, see above) to team with #3 draft pick in 2012 draft –For now, I’m staying the course of previous posts and assuming that the Cavs win 25 games and end up with the #8 pick in the draft (this thought is fading quickly.  I may have to recalibrate after the back-to-back with Boston).  The Hornets pick will be around #35 and the Portland pick should be in the 20 – 25 range.  A third team would be brought in offering a late 1st round pick (let’s say 24th) for the 33rd and 35th picks this year.  So the Cavs’ primary partner in this trade ends up with #8 and #24 in 2012 and #23 in 2013 for the #3 and #33 in 2012.

This seems reasonable to me, considering how redundant the 2012 draft will be for big men.  ESPN projects 7 of the top 13 picks as power forwards, with 11 of the top 15 as centers or power forwards.  The #3 pick this year will likely not be viewed as a “mega-star waiting to happen”.  There is a relatively good chance that the team at #3 can say, “there will be someone we like at #8, plus we get two other decent picks…let’s take the trade.”

This scenario is counting on it and with the third pick in the 2012 draft, the Cavs select  Harrison Barnes.    The Cavs fill the roster with one-year contracts to Derrick Brown and others (Ray Allen for 1 year, $8 million anyone?), and have an up-and-down 2012 – 2013.

Heading into the summer of 2013 (approximate $62 million cap), Cleveland’s existing obligations (and salaries) would be Anderson Varejao ($9.1 million), Kyrie Irving ($5.9 million), Harrison Barnes ($4.6 million), Tristan Thompson ($4.3 million), Cole Aldrich ($3.2 million), and Reggie Jackson ($1.3 million).  After almost knocking off the Heat in the first round of the 2013 playoffs (ultimately wearing them down, leading to a third straight Finals defeat), the Cavs use the 15th pick in the draft to choose Brazilian seven-footer, Fab Melo out of Syracuse.   Melo and the other 1st round pick total $3 million.  Omri Casspi’s option would not be picked up, and Alonzo Gee was re-signed after 2011 – 2012, starting at $1.5 million per year.  Finally, Daniel Gibson would be kept at $3 million per year.  The team’s commitment to those 10 players in 2013 is $36 million; the other $26 million would be offered to:

Paul Millsap –It’s not sexy, but the acquisition adds an offensive force to the front line.  A four year, $46 million contract (starting at $11 million) will take Millsap through his age 28 – 31 seasons.  Last year, he averaged 17 & 8 on 58% true shooting.  He has one of the better power forward jump shots and is a fierce rebounder.  Utah is unable to justify spending this amount on Millsap, as they consider the upcoming contract extensions for recent top 5 picks Derrick Favors & Enes Kanter.

Kevin Martin – To reach an even higher level, Cleveland pursues a fourth source of offense along Irving, Millsap, and Barnes.  Martin has been one of the NBA’s best scoring two-guards for over a half-decade.  A high-salary, short-term offer is made for 2 years and $20 million, similar to, but more pricy than recent contracts for Jamal Crawford and Richard Hamilton.  Houston decides it’s not justified to tie up this money on a thirty year old, as they go all-in pursuing James Harden, Steph Curry, Tyreke Evans or Demar Derozan.

Tiago Splitter – With Varejao, Millsap, Tristan T, and Fab Melo in fold; this is a luxury buy.  Nearly 7 feet tall, Splitter rebounds well and scores efficiently, providing a 4th big man to keep the rookie from being overly relied on.  Also it’s a gimmick; once you start amassing tall Brazilians, it’s hard to stop.  Andy, Tiago, and Fab can do whatever it is that giant Brazilians do in Cleveland.  In order to steal him from the Spurs, the Cavs offer 4 years, $20 million (starting at $4.8).  The Spurs start a rebuilding process that summer and can’t justify paying Splitter through his age 32 season.

The 2013 – 2014 roster is (ages in parantheses):

PG – Kyrie Irving (21), Reggie Jackson (23), 2013 2nd round pick, – With Irving in his 3rd year in the league, he’s makes his first Eastern Conference All Star team.

Wings – Kevin Martin (30), Harrison Barnes (21), Daniel Gibson (27), Alonzo Gee (26), Miami’s 2013 1st  round draft pick – Martin and Barnes represent a huge offensive upgrade from the current roster.  Gibson, Gee, and the first round pick are relied upon for defense.  Barnes would be the team’s 6th man, with a defensive minded player starting over him.

Front Court – Paul Millsap (28), Anderson Varejao (31), Tristan Thompson (22), Tiago Splitter (29), Cole Aldrich (25), Fab Melo (22) – Millsap and Varejao operate as one of the league’s better starting tandems.  In his age 22 season, TT has developed into a great first big man off the bench.

The team probably isn’t a future champion, but an all-star point guard, three additional quality scorers, and a deep front line – that’s a 50+ win team and the average age is only 25.

The most crucial step towards building a champion relies on trading “assets” for the “final pieces”.  There are 5 players under age 25 not named Kyrie, Harrison or Tristan.  There are also seven draft picks total in 2014 & 2015.  Ideally some of this can be packaged with an expiring contract to acquire the right veterans to push the team over the top, similar to the Pistons acquiring Rasheed Wallace in 2004. 

And there it is, through a hazy future I can see it…the 2016 NBA Champion Cleveland Cavaliers!