Tonight, the Cleveland Cavaliers kick off a new season. Last week, I predicted that behind 40+ points from Kyrie, they start with a victory. And hey, I already surmised that Dellavedova and Sims would stick, so consider Irving’s big night a lock. But how many other wins for the Wine and Gold this season? Let’s complete the trek through these pseudo-scientific projections and see.
Archive for the ‘Kevin’s Pseudo-Scientific Projections’ Category
As the calendar hits one week until regular season basketball, I will roll out a concept from last season: one pre-season prediction for each win that I expect from the Cavs. And this two-part article features a special brand of pseudo-science. No spreadsheet or aging curves needed here; this is the type of pseudo-science that happens in my brain (warning - no actual science content). Today, a daring offering of the first twenty prognostications. Then next week, a tumultous finale tallying up to 40 wins? 50? 60? We shall see.
Building on the previous four of these, today a good case RAPM projection will be distilled. I used the same minutes distribution and assumptions that transitioned the Win Shares projection from unbiased to good case. For those without photographic memory, those changes were three:
- Kyrie continues leaping towards superstardom, buoyed considerably by a massive improvement defensively from age 20 to 21. His 3.2 RAPM mirrors Chris Paul’s Age 21 season
- Andrew Bynum experiences relatively strong health; approximately 50 games. His level of play approaches 90% of his prime (I guess his prime is behind him at age 25?).
- Dion Waiters performs as a league average player. In his case below, like Kyrie, that involved big strides on defense.
With the 2013 – 2014 season rapidly approaching, it’s time for serious talk about the Cavs. Me though, that’s not my thing. So I’ll add another to my earlier musings, this time derived from a favorite stat; regularized adjusted plus minus (RAPM). This time the pseudo-science gets brazen.
Last week, an “unbiased” and “good case” view for the 2013-2014 Cavaliers season was offered through the lens of basketball-reference.com’s Win Shares data. More so than any team in the NBA though, the spectrum of likely outcomes spans wide for Cleveland. Built from an enticing mix of players young and / or repeatedly beset by injury, a 30-win or 50-win season is believable. A sampling of outcomes driving the team toward another lottery trip looks like: (more…)
The week began with an “unbiased” projection utilizing Win Shares for the 2013-2014 Cavaliers season. That is a fine disposition for a Monday, but heading towards the weekend, the sun shines brighter, skies are bluer; it’s time for a cheerier outlook than 41 wins.
Transitioning to a “good case” only took three adjustments. The end result with those modified Win Shares per 48 minutes and Win Shares is:
We slowly wake and stretch, yawning loud enough to shake earth. We’re hungry, and a little cranky; Colin may be a lot cranky. That is what arising from hibernation looks like though. Unlike most mammals that enjoy long naps however, the Cavs:the Bloggers doze off in the summer. But as this sunny season rolls towards September, our old routines resume.
For me, that involves tenuously linking numbers, hoping to fall on the right side of the line separating projecting from making things up. Over a series of articles, various advanced stats will be utilized to forecast “unbiased”, “good case”, and “bad case” scenarios for the 2013 – 2014 Cavs. For this team, a large, very realistic spread exists between those latter two. Today, a projection forms utilizing Win Shares data from basketball-reference.com and this associated aging curve. The “unbiased” outlook is presented in this article, with only the team’s minutes distribution subjectively assigned by me. And generally, I used history as a guide there, too. Aside from that, the projection is built from: