Links To The Present: March 9, 2010

March 9th, 2010 by Tom Pestak

“If you had somehow been able to show me this game film at the start of the season I would not have believed what I saw from J.J. Hickson. He battled Tim Duncan without fear all night. He looked to make plays for himself when he got the ball. He attacked late in the game like a seasoned veteran. He made clutch free throws. He got a clutch rebound. His growth has been astounding this season.” [Brian Windhorst - PD]

“The defense gets a fair amount of credit, too. After trouble with dribble penetration in the first half — George Hill stepped in for Tony Parker and scored 23 points — the Cavs closed up the paint in the second half. They allowed just 43 points in the second half, just eight in the paint, and just 26 percent shooting in the fourth quarter.” [Brian Windhorst - PD]

“West will not deliver a title to the Cavaliers, but the Cavaliers need him if they are to deliver a title to Cleveland.” [Patrick McManamon - Fanhouse]

“Williams logged 34 minutes of play (only JJ Hickson received more time), finishing with 17 points (7-of-16 from the floor), eight rebounds and eight assists.  With a small-ball lineup surrounding him for most of the night, Williams was frequently pushing the pace, leading to easy buckets, drawing the ire of Spurs coach Greg Popovich.” [Scott - WFNY]

“Nash and the fourth-ranked player on this list, Mark Price, are the only two players in history to shoot better than 50 percent on 2s, 40 percent on 3s and 90 percent from the line for their careers. And as it happens, Nash’s general manager in Phoenix, Steve Kerr, is second on the list.” [John Hollinger's list of Greatest Shooters Ever]

Boobie came in last night and hit a deep contested 3.  No one else has mentioned it yet so here’s the proof. Every time he shoots a 3 I think it is going in.

“His performance as it relates to who he’s playing with and against is far and away the best in the league no matter how you measure it — box-score metrics, adjusted plus/minus or the old-fashioned way of just using your eyes.” [Ken Berger on NBA Awards]

“Antawn Jamison’s MRI today showed nothing serious. He’s day-to-day with sore left knee.” [Brian Windhorst's Twitter]

Now this is interesting:
Look at these two lineups:

1.) M.Williams-Parker-James-Hickson-O’Neal
2.)
Gibson-Parker-James-Hickson-O’Neal

Lineup 1 has been outscored by 42 points in 380+ minutes.
Lineup 2 has outscored opponents by 34 points in 138+ minutes.

One thing to note is that the 2nd lineup got more of its burn when Mo Williams went down with injury which was against fairly modest competition and mostly at home.  However, Boobie played well against Miami both times and played very well against Orlando.  This is also a reason to point out that 82games was finally updated again over the weekend.

Recap: Cavs 97, Spurs 95 (Or, The Time The Cavs Won Without LeBron)

March 8th, 2010 by John Krolik

Overview: The Cavs outscored the Spurs 25-19 in the final quarter to get their first win without LeBron James since March 13th, 2007. Antawn Jamison and Mo Williams each had 17 points to lead the Cavaliers to a 97-95 victory.

Cavs-Related Bullets:

Last time the Cavs won without LeBron, here were the starters:

Larry Hughes

Sasha Pavlovic

Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Drew Gooden

Ira Newble

In fact, the only player who played in that game and still remains on the current roster in Anderson Varejao. Also, the top 10 pop songs at the time included tracks by Avril Lavigne, Hinder, and Keyshia Cole, who recently had Daniel Gibson’s child.

Because of all that, I’d say that getting a win without LeBron was good for the franchise. Onto some notes:

-Thank you for showing up, Mo Williams. Only one layup is a little bit disturbing, but Mo was draining his pull-ups from the left side of the floor, getting involved with passes and on the boards. And as is custom for Mo, his one three of the night came at the perfect time. Good to see Mo starting to get his confidence back.

-Jamison was a beast when he was in there, hitting some threes and getting some tricky finishes. (His midrange game was MIA in this one.) Bummer he went out with the knee, but according to Windhorst he should be back by Friday. That gave me a scare for a moment there.

-Good Lord, Manu Ginobili. A few years ago, there were two types of serious basketball fans: people who didn’t understand per-minute or per-possession statistics, and people who were freaking terrified of Manu Ginobili. Manu lost his explosiveness before I thought he would, and he hasn’t been nearly as good as he used to be. Even in this game, Manu missed at least four layups by my count.

What Manu does still have is that evil step-back jumper of his. I’ll never know quite how Manu gets the space that he does for that thing. The release isn’t quick, it’s kind of low, and Manu barely jumps when he shoots it. He makes it work somehow, and tonight Ginobili was just raining threes. About the only thing that could slow him down was an extra coat of paint on the line that turned his game-tying three into a two. Between Kobe and Ginobili, the three-point line has really helped the Cavs out in the race for the league’s best record.

-The last five Cavalier field goals of the game were scored or assisted by Delonte West. He is one guy who will give it his all every game, no matter who’s on the floor with him. Also good news: the Cavs ended the game by making eight straight free throws.

-Possibly the best news of the night was the undersized front line keeping Tim Duncan in check, holding him to 13 points and five rebounds. Duncan did finish with five assists, but he wasn’t able to destroy the Cavs. Again, that’s a good sign.

-Last year, Roger Mason Jr. might have been the one guy I’d rather have take a big shot than anybody else. Tonight Mason was 0-8 from deep, and missed a game-tying look with three seconds to go. Every shooter is a streak shooter. Every single one. Except Anthony Morrow.

-Ultimate Jawad played a nice enough game and hit some shots. However, only two free throw attempts and one assist in 34 minutes are not promising signs.

-George Hill went 26th? I really hate the Spurs sometimes. Although there were a lot of really good players near the end of the first round in 2008.

Alright campers, that’s all for tonight. Good to get that win without LeBron. No games until Friday for the Cavs, but I promise we’ll have fun in the meantime. Be well, folks.

Preview: Spurs at Cavaliers, March 8th

March 8th, 2010 by John Krolik

According to Windhorst, no LeBron for this one. As such, who knows what’s going to happen. Your recommended reading is 48 Minutes of Hell. Open thread.

Links To The Present: March 8, 2010

March 8th, 2010 by Tom Pestak

[Brian Windhorst wrote an excellent piece on the vastly underrated Dan Gilbert] “But much of what Gilbert promised has indeed come true, and certainly the most important promises have. And five years in, Gilbert’s reputation is for backing up promises and putting his money where is mouth is has become rock solid.”

We’re all a little worried about Mo Williams.  Rick at WFNY discusses what we really need from Mo this post-season.

[Mary Schmitt Boyer on Mo] “Williams apologized to Cavs fans on his Twitter account on Saturday night, using an expletive to describe his performance. But by Sunday, he sounded as if he was on the road to recovery.”

[Brian Windhorst on Tonight's Game] “If he fights me hard enough, maybe I’ll let him play,” Brown said. “But I think this is an opportune time for him to get some rest with the amount of days we have in between games.

On Saturday the Cavs lost to the Bucks but there was a moral victory for LeBron and Cavs fans being won at the same time.  And no I’m not referring to the argument that LeBron is more valuable because the Cavs cannot win without him, I’m talking about the MIT Sloan Analytics Conference.  Neil Paine at basketball-reference.com has the best collection of news from the conference.  One of the most profound topics was a paper called “The Price of Anarchy”.  In it, Brian Skinner argues that it’s counter-productive to have 1 player taking the majority of the big shots.  John Hollinger summed it up: “The solution? Distributing the shots (or the traffic) to take advantage of all the possible avenues to Point B (or the basket) — even if it involves erecting barriers to the path of least resistance (a shot by Kobe). By this theory, creating a few more shots for Farmar and a few less for Bryant seems suboptimal at first, but it will have such a positive impact on the remaining attempts by Bryant that the Lakers come out ahead on the bargain.” Remember the debate over LeBron’s decision to pass to Donyell Marshall in game 1?  I think if the Cavs had a snuggie for every time someone said something about LeBron not having that “killer instinct” because he doesn’t always take the last shot they could fill The ShoeBW wrote about this years ago. Just another piece of evidence that LeBron plays the game the right way by keeping his teammates involved and trusting them to take the last shot of big games.

Statistics and Dreamscapes: Fun with EWA

March 7th, 2010 by John Krolik

pacman

LeBron’s PER is currently sitting at exactly 32. That number would be one of the best PER marks of all time. For most people, PER doesn’t mean too much. Since it’s a formula and doesn’t manage anything tangible like points or rebounds, a stunning PER doesn’t carry the kind of weight that it should in the mind of the public.

In a move that made his statistic more accessible if slightly less perfect, John Hollinger took PER and combined it with minutes played to create “value added” last season. The stat is a measure of how many points a player adds over a “replacement”-level player at his position. Hollinger then divides that statistic by 30 to get “wins created,” which estimates how many wins a player has given to his team that a replacement-level player would not.

Now, that statistic is obviously a rough estimate. It doesn’t account for defense or chemistry, and there is no statistical way to directly tie wins to the statistical contributions of one individual player. If you take the statistic at direct value, you’ll find all sorts of funny things, like that Brook Lopez has an EWA of 12 and the Nets have seven wins.

But just for a second, let’s use EWA to help illustrate just how statistically dominant LeBron James has been this season when compared to his peers.

LeBron James currently leads the league with 26.3 wins added. Dwyane Wade is second, with 18.3 wins added. That is an 8-win gap. The size of the gap between James and Wade is the size of the gap between Wade and Marc Gasol, who is currently 18th in Wins added. If the Cavs had lost eight more games, they would be behind the Magic for the lead in the East, and right in the mix with Boston and Atlanta.

James, Wade, and Durant are the only players with more than 15 wins added. Only nine players have half as many wins added as James does so far this season. The gap between James and Dirk Nowitzki, who is currently #8 in wins added, is the size of the gap between Dirk and Dante Cunningham, who is tied for 198th in wins added.

According to EWA, if James was replaced with a replacement-level small forward like Mickael Pietrus, the Cavaliers would be 23-41. That would make them a slightly worse team than the Clippers this season.

James has his 26.3 estimated wins in 63 games. This means he has produced .42 estimated wins per game by himself. Consider that for a second.

Here is a lineup of five players who do not have 26.3 wins combined and have played 55 or more games this season:

PG: Aaron Brooks

SG: O.J. Mayo

SF: Vince Carter

PF: Michael Beasley

C: Andrea Bargnani

That lineup would produce one less estimated win than a lineup of James and four replacement-level players.

Okay, that was some harmless statistical fun. I’m off to watch some Oscars. Go Hurt Locker. By the way, one more thing to love about EWA: The lowest EWA among qualifying players belongs to DeShawn Stevenson, who has -2.6 estimated wins at this point in the season. He’s such a great locker-room guy, though.

Recap: Bucks 92, Cavs 85 (Or, The Time The Cavs Played Without LeBron)

March 7th, 2010 by John Krolik

Overview: Without LeBron James in the lineup, the Cavs lost 92-85 to the Milwaukee Bucks. Antawn Jamison and Delonte West combined for 57 points, but were the only Cavaliers in double figures.

Cavs-Related Bullets:

Man, it just didn’t seem right without LeBron. This red-hot Bucks team was going to be a threat for the Cavs with LeBron. Without LeBron, I’m just happy the Cavs put up a good fight. Let’s go through the good and the bad for the bizarro Cavs:

The Good:

Antawn Jamison. The man can score the basketball. Antawn had the green light to shoot all game, and shoot he did. He ended up having a really nice game, scoring 30 points on only 18 shots from the field. The free throws continue to be a problem for him, though. What makes it worse is that this makes no sense. Make free throws, Antawn.

Delonte West. I predicted early on that the only way the Cavs were going to win is if Delonte went into beast mode, and it nearly came true. Delonte was one of the only guys able to get to the basket off the dribble with LeBron out, and he was able to get into the teeth of the Bucks’ defense and score 27 points. Never count Delonte out of a game, or a possession.

Bogut did get held to only 15 points, and Jennings only had one field goal inside the arc. Small-ball didn’t kill the Cavs’ defense in this one.

The Bad:

The legitimate worry for this game involves Mo Williams. Way too willing to pull up for jump shots, wasn’t really penetrating, and he finished 3-17 from the field. I don’t know what to say at this point. The Cavs clearly need Mo to get his game back, but he’s just as clearly hurting them right now. His shot looks flat, and his shot selection is terrible. I don’t know what is going to happen here.

The Cavs average 44.3 points per game in the paint. They got 30 in this one. LeBron being out does help to explain that.

Hickson and Varejao: five combined points in 45 minutes. Yes, they need LeBron to be successful. Since the Cavs are built around LeBron, I don’t think this is the worst thing in the world.

Awesome that you picked tonight to find your outside shot, Brandon Jennings.

The Cavs are built around a player who’s been easily the best player in basketball this year. It’s no surprise they struggled without him, especially against a team playing as well as the Bucks are. Let’s try to erase this one from our memories, and hope LeBron returns soon. Last time Cavs won without LeBron was March 13th, 2007. Fun times. Have a good weekend, campers.

Preview: Cavaliers at Bucks, March 6th

March 6th, 2010 by John Krolik

Relevant Statistics:

Pace: Cleveland 93.4 (25th) vs. Milwaukee 94.9 (15th)

Offensive Efficiency: Cleveland 109.4 (2nd) vs. Milwaukee 101.7 (23rd)

Defensive Efficiency: Cleveland 101.0 (7th) vs. Milwaukee 100.9 (6th)

Notes:

This game worries me. Bogut is easily the best center the Cavs have gone up against without Shaq or Z. Cleveland’s on the second night of a road back-to-back. Milwaukee’s won seven of their last eight, and the one loss was in overtime against the Hawks. What’s more, that eight-game stretch has included five road games and three back-to-backs. This game is a serious test for the Cavs.

The key will be stopping Bogut. Throw double-teams, don’t let him get easy baskets on the pick-and-roll, go under the screen on Jennings and force him to slingshot in jumpers. Jennings has also struggled to finish at the rim, so it’ll be important for the Cavaliers to contest his drives.

The less time Luc Richard Mbah a Moute gets to guard LeBron straight-up, the better. He’s a beast on that end of the floor.

Luke Ridnour has been having the best season of his career this season. He’s been automatic on long jumpers, so the Cavs can’t take a nap on him when he checks into the game.

Recommended Reading:

Bucksketball

Brew Hoop

Recap: Cavs 99, Pistons 92 (Or, The Time Everyone Realized It’s Just a Game)

March 6th, 2010 by John Krolik

Overview: The Cavaliers came back from their biggest home deficit of the year to pull out a 99-92 win over the Detroit Pistons. However, the game was overshadowed by Rodney Stuckey mysteriously collapsing in the third quarter.

Special Note:

First of all, what happened to Rodney Stuckey was frightening and certainly made everybody realize that there are things more important than basketball. Best wishes for him and his family, and hopefully he has a full and speedy recovery. I will talk about basketball now, but Stuckey’s health is easily the most important story of the night. I trust sources better qualified than I to keep you updated on that situation.

Cavs-Related Bullets:

The Pistons got out to a big lead in the first half, but it was honestly more a product of the Pistons making shot after shot after shot than it was about anything the Cavs were doing wrong. Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince were making every jumper they looked at, and there’s no real answer for that. In the NBA, you have to dare teams to beat you with deep two-point jumpers. In the first half, the Pistons did just that, but that doesn’t mean the Cavs were playing bad basketball. Kwame Brown even hit a 17-footer, for crying out loud.

Meanwhile, the Cavs were running a layup line, but couldn’t buy a jumper. In the second half, the jumpers starting missing for the Pistons and going in for the Cavs, and they took the game.

LeBron James. Wow. Completely unstoppable when he drove, changed the flow of the game with some absolutely huge three-pointers at the end of the third and beginning of the fourth, made some great passes in the first half, and had a beautiful spinning jumper for the dageer. I’d like to single out LeBron’s rebounding. In the past, I’ve called LeBron’s rebounding the most overrated part of his game, as he often collects far more easy rebounds than easy points or assists. In this game, LeBron made a real impact on the boards. It’s not just that LeBron finished with 13 rebounds; it’s that without a center, LeBron really had to fight for a lot of those boards, and the Cavs often needed them.

The less said about Hickson, Williams, and Parker, the better. Parker at least played good defense and didn’t hurt the offensive flow. Hickson had a setback game, which is explainable; Hickson’s a player who thrives on comfort, and the Cavs were uncomfortable for much of the game thanks to the Pistons’ early scoring. Mo still doesn’t look like himself. The sooner he gets back to playing the way he can, the better. Man, that shot of his has looked flat since he’s returned.

Varejao and West were at their absolute best. Great cuts, scrappy defense, always attacking, after every loose ball. They were the difference-makers off the bench.

This is why the Cavs got Jamison. With LeBron sitting, Jamison hit some outside shots and a tough floater to put the Cavs on top, and they held that lead throughout the fourth quarter. Not many other Cavs in the LeBron era capable of doing that.

Bullets of Randomness:

I don’t think I’ve ever been as impressed by an 0-5 performance as I was by Jonas Jerebko’s effort tonight. That guy was everywhere. He’s a keeper.

Preview: Pistons at Cavaliers, March 5th

March 5th, 2010 by John Krolik

Relevant Statistics:

Pace: Pistons 91.3 (29th) vs. Cavs 93.4 (25th)

Offensive Efficiency: Detroit 100.6 (26th) vs. Cavs 109.4 (2nd)

Defensive Efficiency: Detroit 106.7 (22nd) vs. Cavs 101.1 (6th)

Notes:

Not many for this game. Should be a nice outing for the fun-and-gun Cavs on national television. Detroit clearly has trouble with fast-paced teams, as they’re coming off a 24-point loss to the Knicks. Cavs are on a winning streak, Pistons are on a losing streak. Let’s go, status quo.

Recommended Reading:

Piston Powered

Links To The Present: March 5, 2010

March 5th, 2010 by Tom Pestak

“James broke into a full-blown imitation of the Cavaliers coach and all his idiosyncrasies on the sidelines, in huddles and in practice.” [Brian Windhorst - PD]

Jason Whitlock with some advice for LeBron: “If you don’t win a championship this season, it’s time for you to fire head coach Mike Brown. I know that’s your guy and you love him. But Magic needed Pat Riley and Jordan needed Phil Jackson.”

Chris Broussard on LeBron and Kobe: “This story may be deeper than a nice gesture. It shows that James and Bryant have a legitimate relationship, not one that’s just fabricated in puppet commercials or pushed by Nike’s shoe salesmen.”

“In order for Ilgauskas to return, the Cavs would have to clear a roster spot. The most likely candidates to be waived are forward Darnell Jackson or rookie guard Danny Green because they don’t have contracts guaranteed for next season.” [Mary Schmitt Boyer - PD]

Mr. Cavalier on J.J. Hickson’s growth: “Hickson seems comfortable on the floor now.  He doesn’t panic. He reads the play and reacts to it.  In the first part of the season, he was missing all those passes, fumbling the ball out of bounds because he was rushing. Now, he catches and he finishes. He’s a totally different player now.”

“A Snuggie representative writes that a Guinness World Record adjudicator will be on hand to certify that “the record for ‘largest gathering of people wearing fleece blankets’ has been set.”" [The Huffington Post]

Tweets of interest:

“Yes, Cavs & Pistons players got customized ones RT @MaureenEF: Do they have an XXXXL Snuggie 4 Shaq?” [PDCavsinsider]

RT @vincethepolack: The fact that Zydrunas Ilgauskas has a place in SoHo is endlessly entertaining me today.” [jeskeets]