According to Cleveland.com, he’ll be playing in tomorrow’s game against the Nets. It’ll be good to have him back, and the Nets are a good team to return against.
Delonte West To Return To Lineup
February 8th, 2010 by John KrolikProgramming Announcement: I have been signed by NBC
February 8th, 2010 by John Krolik
As you may know, NBC is starting up a new sports website. It’s called Pro Basketball Talk, and the goal is to provide a one-stop destination for NBA fans on the internet, much like Pro Football Talk for NFL fans. What you probably don’t know is that I’ve been tapped to write for them. Kurt Helin, formerly the head of Forum Blue and Gold, is heading up the project, and will be editing the site. The other team members are slated to be Rob Mahoney of The Two Man Game, Matt Moore of Hardwood Paroxysm, and Ira Winderman of the Sun-Sentinel. It’s a great team, and the site should be wonderful, so I strongly encourage you guys to stop by.
I’ll be doing short-form, general NBA posting, and I’ll be banging out posts from 5:30-8:30 PM EST on Mondays and Fridays and 1:00-5:00 on Tuesdays and Thursdays.
Obviously, I’m tremendously excited about this opportunity and thankful to Kurt for giving me a chance. Since I started my first blog two and a half years ago, I’ve never ceased to be amazed at the things I’ve been able to do, readers I’ve been able to share my point of view with, the people I’ve met, and the opportunities I’ve had. It’s an amazing time to be a writer and a sports fan if you work hard and are passionate about what you do. This is probably the biggest one yet, so I’ll do my best and hope to do well for Kurt and NBC.
As for the effect this will have on Cavs: The Blog, everything should be pretty much business as usual. As you can see, I’ll be working for PBT in the afternoons, and the recaps and substantial posts for this site generally get written in the evenings. What might change right now are the Links To The Present posts, which generally get done during the period that I’ll now be working for NBC. I’ll try to find a way to make it work, but I might look into alternate solutions if it’s too much.
Finally, I just want to thank you guys. This community has really grown this season, and one of the best parts of my day is waking up in the morning and hearing what you guys think. I try to get better every day, and you guys have helped me do that. As always, thanks for taking the time to read and comment. Be well, and be sure to check out Pro Basketball Talk. Until later.
Statistics And Dreamscapes: LeBron James Is Good At Basketball
February 7th, 2010 by John Krolik| Jokes.com | |
| Mitch Hedberg – Blocking the Fire Exit | |
“I hate Turkeys. If you go to the grocery store and stand in front of the lunch meat section for too long, youi start to get pissed off at turkeys. You see turkey ham, turkey pastrami, turkey bologna — someone needs to tell the turkeys, ‘Man, just be yourself. I used to draw you.’
-Mitch Hedberg
Sometimes Mitch Hedberg would get mad at turkeys. Sometimes I get mad at the triple-double. It’s an arbitrary stat, and people make too much of a big deal over them. The stat doesn’t count when a player gets close to a triple-double, and assumes that a player’s scoring, passing, and rebounding were equally valuable. Often times, that isn’t the case. Triple-doubles are excellent, and very seldom does a player record a triple-double in a loss. But triple-doubles are a novelty stat that carry more weight than they deserve to.
My specific problem with triple-doubles is that the fascination with the triple-double has put too much emphasis on LeBron’s rebounding. Ever since LeBron’s rookie year, the preferred mode of contextualizing LeBron’s statistical dominance has been to take his triple-crown numbers and put his name next to Michael Jordan and Oscar Robertson’s. It’s a good statistic, but it’s not the best way to show how LeBron impacts a game.
I don’t want to come off as a rebounding philistine here. Rebounding is very important. Part of what makes a team good is the ability to get as many possessions as possible, and rebounding is the best way to control that. Ever since Mike Brown took over, rebounding has been a major component of why the Cavs win, and they currently have the league’s best rebound rate.
LeBron is definitely a very good rebounder. Not only does LBJ pull down 7 rebounds a game, but his per-possession rebounding statistics are very good. He’s 11th in rebounding rate among small forwards, which is especially impressive when you consider how many other good rebounders LeBron plays with and how much he shoots the ball on offense. With his hands, hops, and instincts, LeBron has all the tools to be a great rebounder, and he knows how to use them.
That being said, I think it’s obvious that LeBron’s rebounding doesn’t make anywhere near the type of impact that LeBron makes in other areas. LeBron is capable of skying to grab impressive rebounds, but he rarely mixes it up inside to grab tough boards. Most of his rebounds come from LeBron swooping in from the perimeter to grab an easy carom. Often times, LeBron’s ability to cover ground makes him the first one to grab an uncontested board that a teammate would’ve easily had if LeBron didn’t grab it. The Cavs only rebound the ball 1% better when LeBron is on the floor. Compare this to the fact that the Cavs’ eFG% is 6.6% better when LeBron is on the floor, and 8% more of their baskets are assisted.
There’s nothing wrong with any of that. The Cavs have plenty of great rebounders who do mix it up inside, LeBron has to guard people on the perimeter, and having LeBron wear himself out or get fouls trying to battle for boards in the circle would be a poor allocation of resources. And hey, I don’t have a problem with people pointing out that LeBron James is good. My issue is that focusing only on the triple-crown stats doesn’t paint the most accurate picture of LeBron, because his rebounds are the closest thing to “empty stats” that LeBron accumulates. More pressingly, there are stats that do describe Lebron’s dominance that aren’t points, rebounds, or assists.
In particular, LeBron’s scoring efficiency is far more impressive than his rebounding prowess, but it seems to rarely get mentioned. One reason for this could be that the best statistic to measure scoring efficiency, True Shooting, hasn’t acquired the power of language yet.
Like batting average in baseball, nearly everybody agrees that Field Goal percentage is an incomplete statistic. Like batting average, it fails to account for more valuable hits/shots (extra base hits/three-pointers) and plays that produce points but don’t count as official at-bats/shot attempts (walks/free throws.) True Shooting takes both of those factors into account, and is a much better measure of a player’s shooting efficiency.
LeBron’s field goal percentage is a very good 50.4%, but that number vastly underrates how good of a scorer LeBron is. For starters, LeBron likes to shoot threes. A lot. LeBron is scoring 29.7 points per game this season while averaging five three-point attempts per contest. If he keeps this up, it would be only the fifth time an NBA player has scored that many points per game while taking that many threes. (The others were Tracy McGrady, Jerry Stackhouse, and Kobe Bryant twice.)
Free throws are another statistic that’s often overlooked, much like walks in baseball. There’s no good reason why made free throws aren’t given as much weight as made field goals. While there are situations in baseball where a hit provides benefits that a walk does not, free throws score points while also getting a team into the “bonus” and/or getting an opposing player in foul trouble. As you may be aware, LeBron shoots a lot of free throws. He’s currently tied with Dwight Howard for the league lead in total free throws, recording 523 attempts at the line in 52 games.
LeBron’s field goal percentage is good enough, but when his three-pointers and free throws get factored in, it becomes apparent just how good of a scoring season LeBron is having. LeBron’s True Shooting is currently at 61.2%, which is almost unheard of for a high-volume scorer like LeBron.
In fact, only three other NBA players have scored more points than LeBron has this season with a True Shooting percentage of 61% or better: Adrian Dantley, Karl Malone, and Michael Jordan. This would be the seventh time somebody has scored more than 29.7 points with a True Shooting of 61% or better for a full season: Malone did it once, Jordan did it once, and Dantley did it four times.(Kiki Vandeweghe came extremely close, scoring 29.4 points per game on 61.8% True Shooting during the 1983-84 season.) Even when only LeBron’s scoring is considered, LeBron is having a historic season.
That’s impressive enough on its own, but watch what happens when LeBron’s passing gets brought in. LeBron is currently averaging 8.2 assists per game. The only other player to score 29 points per game, have a true shooting better than 60%, and average more than five assists per game is Michael Jordan, and he only did it once. The only other players to ever average more than 29 points and five assists per game on 60% True Shooting are Jordan, who did it four times, and Larry Bird, who accomplished the feat in the 1987-88 season.
Here’s the bottom line. Yes, LeBron’s triple-crown numbers are amazing. The only other players to average 29/7/8 over a full season are, you guessed it, Michael Jordan and Oscar Robertson. However, LeBron’s scoring efficiency is a much better indicator of how LeBron is helping the Cavs win than his rebounding numbers. When you consider LeBron’s True Shooting in context with the rest of LeBron’s statistics, it becomes apparent that LeBron is truly having a season for the ages. Averaging a triple-double for a season would make LeBron the answer to a bar trivia question. LeBron scoring the ball efficiently is what could bring the Cavs their first NBA championship.
One last thing: Perhaps the lone flaw with TS% is that it normalizes the impact of “And-1″ shots by having free throws count as .44% of a shot attempt, as opposed to .50%. The reasoning for this is that and-1s weren’t tracked until recently. Hoopdata tracks them now, and the numbers show that LeBron is as good at getting and-1s as any perimeter player in the league. As scary as it is, True Shooting is actually underrating how well LeBron is currently scoring. LeBron James: Good at Basketball. Until tomorrow, everyone.
Recap: Cavs 113, Knicks 106 (Or, Of Early Explosions, Late Implosions, And LeBron James Being Really Good)
February 6th, 2010 by John Krolik
Overview: LeBron James scored a franchise-record 35 points in the first half against the Knicks, including 24 straight points. Although the Knicks were able to cut a 24-point deficit to as little as three in the fourth quarter, the Cavs were able to hold on for a 113-106 victory.
Cavs-Related Bullets:
In two games against the Knicks this season, the Cavs have outscored the Knicks 84-45 in the first quarter. In the other six quarters combined, the Knicks have outscored the Cavs, by a count of 152-129.
The Cavs started out the game attacking the rim. The Cavs’ first 15 points came on dunks, layups, or free throws. David Lee had no chance against Shaq inside. JJ Hickson continues to look like a new man, especially early on. The lightbulb seems to have gone off for him on the offensive end. He was making sharp cuts to the rim, making catches in traffic, and finishing with authority.
25 of the Cavs’ first 30 points came at the rim. Then, with 1:55 remaining in the quarter, the real fun started. LeBron made five consecutive jumpers. The first came from 25 feet, the next from 20, the next from 26, and the final two from 32 feet. He scored 14 points in just under two minutes, and only used five possessions in doing so. He stayed hot at the beginning of the second quarter, making a layup and three straight mid-range jumpers to push the score to 52-31 with 9:38 remaining in the second quarter.
During his torrid stretch, LeBron scored 24 straight points on 10-11 shooting from the field. It took him just over four minutes to do it. There’s not much to be said when LeBron goes off like that. It looked more like a glitch in The Matrix than basketball. It’s awe-inspiring, demoralizing, unstoppable, unsustainable, terrifying. LeBron finished the half with a layup and two free throws, giving him a franchise-record 35 points in the half. In that first half, LeBron had 20 points on 11 shots outside of the paint. Unreal.
In the second half, LeBron cooled down from the outside. That was inevitable. The Cavs having no idea how to attack the zone defenses the Knicks started throwing at them wasn’t inevitable.
The ball stayed on the perimeter, and all the Cavs’ attempts to go inside were home-run attempts that the Knicks had little trouble picking off. When the ball did move, it was just around the perimeter. The ball would stay on one side of the floor for far too long, and LeBron wasn’t involved in the offense when he didn’t have the ball. At no point was an effort made to get LeBron in the high post at the middle of the floor, which is how the zone should’ve been attacked. Between LeBron holding the ball and forcing jumpers, the Cavs having no point guard to initiate the offense, and the Cavs letting up because they had a big lead, it was a perfect storm of bad offense.
With the Knicks knocking on the door in the fourth quarter and LeBron struggling from the field, LBJ kept his cool. He scored six straight points to close out the game. He utilized a “screw this, I’m going left” drive to get two free throws. On the next Cavs possession, LeBron made a great catch of an attempted Anderson Varejao lob, dribbled out like he was going to re-set the offense, then calmly turned around and drilled a mid-range jumper. Finally, LeBron got Jordan Hill on a switch, used his dribble to get space, and pulled up for a 20-footer to ice the game. It wasn’t quite as amazing as what LeBron did in the first quarter, but it was what the Cavs needed to prevent what would have been a very bad loss.
According to ESPN’s stats and information department, the Cavs scored on 74% of LeBron’s possessions in the first half, with those possessions producing 49 total points. In the second half, the Cavs only scored on 32% of LeBron’s possessions, which produced 16 points. LeBron’s game is more feast-or-famine than other superstars’, and that’s something Cavs fans just have to accept. Overall, LeBron finished with a line of 47/8/8 with 5 steals, on 69% True Shooting. I’ll take that.
-The Cavs’ defense was an issue. On the one hand, it’s completely understandable why they would allow themselves to let up a little after jumping out to an early start. The Knicks were also red-hot, shooting 12-27 from deep. Nate Robinson was making everything he looked at, launching quick-release threes and hitting five of the seven he took. Even still, the Cavs should not be getting beat in transition and allowing stretches where the opponent makes 10 of 11 shots from the field.
-The night definitely belonged to LeBron, but a few other Cavs had nice games. As I mentioned, David Lee had no answer for Shaq early. The Cavs had trouble finding him after the Knicks zoned up, but Shaq still finished with 19 points on 8-13 shooting from the field.
-Anderson Varejao continues to have some trouble getting shot attempts without Williams and West playing, but he still provided energy. He shot 3-5 from the field, and was able to add four offensive rebounds.
-Anthony Parker was aggressive, making some tough shots in the lane and scoring in double digits for the first time in a while.
-I’d love to see more plays like that And-1 to end the third quarter from Jamario Moon.
-Gibson, James, and Jawad combined for 20 assists against the Knicks. Everyone else on the Cavs accounted for two.
-LeBron played some very good defense on Al Harrington to close out the game.
Bullets of Randomness:
-Sadly, no Larry Hughes for the Knicks tonight, who was out with a toe.
-David Lee had a great line, finishing with 20 points on 10-14 shooting. However, both him and Gallinari were sitting as the Knicks made their big push. Interesting.
-Jordan Hill can play. He might always be the guy the Knicks drafted instead of Jennings, but he’s a great athlete, and showed some nice touch around the rim.
-Alright, that’s all for tonight. Next up, the Nets.
Points by Quarter: The Effect of LeBron James on Margin.
February 6th, 2010 by Mark Cameron
What a great time to be a Cavaliers fan. Aside from some All-Star weekend snubbing and injuries, only positives exist: The NBA’s best record at 40-11, a 10 game winning steak, and an eight game home winning streak with four straight home games around the bend. What more could we as fans ask for?
Well, a little statistical observation of how the Cavaliers perform from quarter to quarter would be nice. John emailed me earlier this week with a theory of his. He wondered how the Cavaliers performed when LeBron James came out scorching in the first quarter. He is under the impression that his teammates will stand around on offense and that the lack of activity carries over to the defensive end, where the team will let up a lot of points.
So I figured it’d make for an interesting study to chart both the points and assists of LeBron James vs. the team’s scoring margin by quarter. After all, LeBron James is one of only three players (Parker and Hickson being the others) to play in all 51 games this season and, with all due respect to Anthony and J.J., he has always been the driving force of the Cavs offense.
A few disclaimers.
First, just because I broke the numbers down by quarter, the quarter figures are not equivalent. In a typical game, LeBron James will play the entire first quarter and then go to the bench and not return until around the seven minute mark of the second quarter. This means that first quarter figures should theoretically be close to double the second quarter statistics since James is logging nearly twice as many minutes in the first quarter. The same could be said for third quarter stats vs. fourth quarter stats. Therefore, while it is important to compare quarters, understand that some statistics, like a second quarter margin, don’t hinge as heavily on the shoulders of LeBron James.
Another important disclaimer is the distinction between scorer and creator. Just because LeBron tallies 5 assists in one quarter and only 2 in the next, it doesn’t necessarily mean that he decided to focus more on scoring and not on creating for his teammates. There is no stat for passes that find open teammates, yet lead to a miss and no assist for the creator. This is why it’s important to also look at field goals and free throws attempted, as these figures provide a better measure of whether or not LeBron James is looking to score or if he is looking for his teammates.
Lastly, there have been three fourth quarters that LeBron James has not played in this season due to a blowout. Therefore, for both the chart and graphs, I have included statistics from only the 48 fourth quarters that James saw action in.
So without further ado, let’s take a look at LeBron’s numbers by quarter.
LeBron James’ stats by quarter.
| Q | Pts | Asts | FG/FGA | 3P FG/FGA | FT/FTA | Cavs margin (TOT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 8.7 | 3.1 | 165-291 (56.7%) | 23-63 (36.5%) | 89-114 (78.1%) | +3.2 (+162) |
| 2nd | 6.5 | 1.5 | 102-187 (54.5%) | 15-41 (36.6%) | 110-143 (76.9%) | +1.9 (+97) |
| 3rd | 7.4 | 2.3 | 135-298 (45.3%) | 30-87 (34.5%) | 76-103 (73.8%) | +1.2 (+60) |
| 4th* | 7.1 | 1.4 | 99-219 (45.2%) | 22-61 (36.1%) | 123-154 (79.9%) | +1.0 (+47) |
| OT | 5.5 | 1.0 | 4-9 (44.4%) | 1-3 (33.3%) | 2-2 (100%) | +5.5 (+11) |
*contains only 48 quarters of play.
One of the first things that sticks out to me is how overpowering LeBron James is in the first quarter. As I mentioned he does typically play the entire first quarter, but to average 8.7 points and 3.1 assists per game on 56.7% shooting in the first frame is very special. For those of you who remember, when I took a look at LeBron’s assists last month, he had 323 assists with 110 of them leading to three-pointers. This means that the average assist from James leads to 2.34 points. Using this number to estimate how many points LeBron’s 3.1 first quarter assists lead to, James accounts for roughly 16.0 first quarter points either by direct scoring or assisting them. In the end, this could explain why the Cavaliers are second in the NBA in points per first quarter with 28.2 points per game in the first (LeBron James boasting a ridiculous 56.7% hands on points ratio in this quarter).
But what about LeBron’s role of scorer vs. his other role of creator? The first quarter marks the largest margin of victory for the Cavaliers, but it also holds the most amount of LeBron’s points and assists. This means it’s impossible to tell whether or not the large margin is more so a product of LeBron’s ability to score or create for others.
A large margin for the Cavaliers is obviously a combination of the two forces, but is there a stronger connection with one and not the other? What would a plot of LeBron’s assists vs. the Cavs margin look like and how would that compare to his points vs. team margin? Well, look no further.
LeBron’s points and assists vs. Cavaliers +/- margin.
The first thing I noticed was a positive, linear relationship between the two variables for both graphs. Now, the correlation isn’t overwhelmingly strong and there are some outliers, but overall it appears that there is a correlation between LeBron’s performance in the quarter and Cleveland’s margin of victory in that quarter (what a shock!).
The interesting thing to note is how the line of best fit appears to be stronger (more steep) regarding LeBron’s assists rather than his points. Whenever LeBron tallies a certain number of assists, the first chart illustrates how the margin very rarely dips into the negative portion of the graph. On the other hand, there are instances of LeBron James scoring 20 points and the Cavaliers losing the quarter by 6 points.
LeBron’s points and assists vs. Cavaliers +/- margin with stipulations.
For a better understanding of this phenomenon, here is a zoomed in version of the graphs, focusing on a minimum number for each stat. So far this season LeBron has had at least 4 assists in 30 different quarters. Similarly, James has scored 12 or more points in 33 separate quarters. Therefore, here are the same graphs from above, but with only quarters featuring 4 or more assists or 12 or more points.
With these graphs you’ll notice a stronger correlation between margin and both variables with a slope that is nearly equal for each graph. But look at how much higher the line of best fit is in the first graph that charts assists vs. margin. Out of the 30 quarters that saw LeBron James dish out at least 4 assists, 24 of them led to a positive margin for the Cavaliers (80%). On the other hand, with the 33 quarters that LeBron scored at least 12 points in, only 21 times did it lead to a positive margin for the quarter (63.6%).
There have been only two instances of LeBron James scoring at least 12 points with at least 4 assists in a quarter and the Cavaliers won both quarters by an average 10.5 points. I would hope this would be the case since 12 points and 4 assists would account for 21.4 points on average from LeBron’s distribution alone.
How the Cavs fare later on when LeBron comes out scoring in the first.
But while this information is very useful, it doesn’t really touch on what John was referring to. How do the Cavaliers fare in the later quarters when LeBron comes out shooting and scoring in the first?
| Q | Pts | Asts | FG/FGA | 3P FG/FGA | FT/FTA | Cavs margin (TOT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 15.6 | 2.1 | 57-77 (74.0%) | 10-16 (62.5%) | 32-27 (86.5%) | +7.1 (+71) |
| 2nd | 6.1 | 1.7 | 15-43 (34.9%) | 3-7 (42.9%) | 28-32 (87.5%) | +5.2 (+52) |
| 3rd | 5.6 | 1.9 | 19-43 (44.2%) | 2-10 (20.0%) | 16-21 (76.2%) | -2.8 (-28) |
| 4th | 7.4 | 1.6 | 23-48 (47.9%) | 4-5 (80.0%) | 22-25 (88.0%) | +2.1 (+21) |
| OT* | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1-4 (25.0%) | 0-1 (0%) | 0-0 (0%) | +13 (+13) |
*contains only 1 overtime game.
As one would expect, when LeBron scores at least 12 points in the first quarter the Cavaliers win that frame by a significant margin (+7.1 points). Furthermore, James shoots the ball very well in these first quarters, converting 62.5% of his three-pointers and 86.5% of his free-throws.
But what’s really interesting is the tone this sets for the rest of the game. First, LeBron isn’t nearly as hot in the second quarter, averaging 6.1 points on 34.9% shooting, yet the team remains strong, winning the second quarter by an average of 5.2 points. However, this leads to a third quarter lull where neither James nor his teammates appear prepared. James shoots worse from three (20.0%) and the free throw line (76.2%) in the third than in any other quarter. Perhaps as a result, the Cavaliers are actually -2.8 points in the third quarter of games in which LeBron scores 12 or more points in the first quarter. This is pretty crazy when you consider the Cavs are +2.1 points per third quarter in the 41 games that see James score under 12 points in the first quarter.
Regardless, the Cavaliers typically bounce back in the fourth quarter, winning that quarter by a larger margin than usual. It’s also interesting to study LeBron’s fourth quarter numbers in these games where he goes off in the first. His shooting numbers are greater than usual as he averages more points and assists in these fourth quarters than usual. Perhaps he’s saving some of that first quarter magic for the end of the game, explaining the porous play in the third quarter.
The most important number, however, is the fact that when LeBron James scores at least 12 points in the first quarter the Cavaliers are 10-0, winning by an average 12.9 points per game. Typically eager to destroy the New York Knicks early and often, like when he scored 19 points in the first quarter earlier this season in New York, we as fans can only hope he comes out firing tonight, leading the Cavaliers to an easy victory.
The ideal first quarter.
After looking at so many individual trends (LeBron scoring 12+, dishing out 4+ assists, etc.), I figured it was time to look at LeBron’s numbers when the team is playing well in the first quarter. So far this season the Cleveland Cavaliers have won a first quarter by at least 10 points on eight occasions. Here are LeBron’s averages from those big first quarters.
- LeBron’s points (8 games): 10.0 points.
- LeBron’s assists (8 games): 5.4 assists.
- LeBron’s shooting (Fg/Fga): 33-45 (73.3%)
(3p/3pa): 8-12 (66.7%)
(Ft/Fta): 6-9 (66.7%)
Perhaps the most interesting factor for this ideal first quarter is the establishment of the three-point jumper. With these numbers coming from eight double-digit first quarter victories, the average fan would assume it came from LeBron being aggressive and getting to the free throw line. However, he only averaged 1.1 free throw attempts over this span, shooting fewer free throws than three-pointers and connecting on them at the same rate (66.7%). Maybe the key is for LeBron to come out, hit a three or two to keep the defense honest, and then attack the lanes the rest of the quarter, freeing himself up for layups and his teammates for wide open three-point shots.
Whatever it is, I’d like to see it tonight.
Final shots.
- The Cleveland Cavaliers have had 25 quarters with at least a 10 point margin of victory so far this season. Nine of these times LeBron had at least 4 assists, nine of the times he had at least 12 points, and the two patterns intersected twice as well. In Cleveland’s 15 quarters with double-digit deficits, LeBron has had at least 4 assists once and at least 12 points twice, with the two events never occurring simultaneously.
- It’s nice to see that LeBron’s highest free throw percentage comes in the fourth quarter (79.9%). Shooting only 73.8% from the stripe in the third quarter, it’s good to have an 80.0% shooter on the line in the clutch.
- If you looked at the percentages in the first chart, you’ll notice that LeBron’s field goal percentage steadily declines from quarter to quarter. I attribute this to two factors, fatigue and defensive adjustments. And since LeBron’s field goal percentage drops from 54.5% to 45.3% from the second quarter to the third quarter, I’d say the latter has more to do with the decline than the former. Since one would expect players to be fresh coming out of their halftime break, it’s more likely that teams are game planning to get the ball out of LeBron’s hands or cool him off in the second half.
- LeBron’s three-point percentages are fairly stable, hovering above 36% with the exception of the third quarter. Once considered the “kryptonite quarter” by Cavs fans because it seemed like no lead was safe once the third quarter began, it looks like it still remains the worst quarter for James, at least in regard to efficiency. Luckily the Cavaliers are +60 (+1.2 per game) in the third quarter this season, so it hasn’t been that big of a deal.
- Lastly, in regard to third quarter woes, it appears that some complacency sets in for James. LeBron is averaging 1.7 three-pointers per third quarter, more than he averages in any other quarter (1st – 1.2 threes, 2nd – 0.8 threes, 4th – 1.3 threes). The fact that he’s shooting worse from three in that frame would suggest he would lay off the three-point attempts, but it appears the opposite is occurring. Over the past 15 games, James is only 5-27 (18.5%) from three in the third quarter, averaging 1.8 three-pointers per third quarter.
Make sure to join the discussion at Numbers Don’t and Real Cavs Fans!
Preview: Knicks at Cavaliers, February 6th
February 6th, 2010 by John Krolik
Relevant Statistics:
Pace: Knicks 96.1 (8th) vs. Cavs 93.4 (25th)
Offensive Efficiency: Knicks 104.0 (16th) vs. Cavs 108.1 (5th)
Defensive Efficiency: Knicks 106.3 (21st) vs. Cavs 99.5 (3rd)
Notes:
-Another game against the team on the second game of a back-to-back. It’ll be tough for the Knicks to play their frenetic style with tired legs, especially since they’re playing an eight-man rotation.
-David Lee will be an interesting matchup with Shaq. He’s always made a living by getting garbage baskets around the rim with either hand, but this year he’s added a mid-range jumper he appears to have a lot of confidence in. It’ll be interesting to see if he can get Shaq out of the paint by knocking that shot down consistently and/or sneak around Shaq for offensive boards.
-Gallinari has become maybe the most dangerous offensive player on this team. The Cavs will have to keep an eye on him at all times and deny him any easy threes.
-Always fun when Larry Huges comes to Cleveland.
Recommended Reading:
Links To The Present: February 5th, 2010
February 5th, 2010 by John Krolik
-Cleveland Frowns on Worldwide Wes.
-LeBron is close to committing to the World Games.
-Even though he’s been successful as a point guard, LeBron is glad he’ll move back to his natural position soon.
-No Cavs in the three-point contest.
-JJ Hickson loves the spotlight.
Recap: Cavs 102, Heat 86 (Or, Heat Go Cold, Cavs Stay Hot)
February 5th, 2010 by John Krolik
Overview: The Cavaliers were able to prevail over a worn-out Miami Heat squad, outscoring them 46-34 in the second half of a 102-86 victory. LeBron James finished with a final line of 36/7/8, and Daniel Gibson added 7 points in the fourth quarter to help seal the victory.
Cavs-Related Bullets:
-The Cavs started the game attacking the basket. LeBron was making a home at the free throw line, JJ Hickson was hyper-active and getting opportunities at the rim, and the Cavs were using their length to get out onto the break. Of the Cavs’ 56 points in the first half, only 15 of them came on shots taken outside the paint. Wade and Michael Beasley were able to keep the Heat in the game for the first half, making serpentine forays to the basket and soft mid-range jumpers, respectively. In the second half, the Heat’s fatigue showed, and they went cold offensively. Wade missed his first seven shots of the half, and there wasn’t much else working for the Heat offensively.
The Cavs are one of the best defensive teams in the league in the fourth quarter. The Heat are one of the worst scoring teams in the fourth quarter. So the Heat only managing 13 points in the fourth quarter wasn’t a huge surprise.
-With Daniel Gibson missing the first half of the game, the Cavs got a chance to showcase some of their all-length lineups. LeBron started the game at point guard, and 6-6 Anthony Parker was the smallest starter for the Cavs. Danny Green got some minutes in the first half, and the Cavs were able to use their length to pressure the Heat on the defensive end and get themselves out on the fast break.
The Cavs outscored the Heat 20-2 on the break, recorded 9 steals and 7 blocks, and played some of the best full-court basketball they’ve played all season. The alley-oops kept on coming, and LeBron was able to get plenty of chances to do his freight train act in the open floor.
-LeBron had a superb all-around game. After his free-throw barrage in the first half, LeBron got hot from outside in the second half. He went 5-6 on jumpers in the second half, and most of those were contested. Reggie Miller dropped the obligatory “if he’s making those, you can’t stop him” at one point, but I return to a point I’ve made a few times. There’s no way to stop any player who’s making deep, contested tw0-point jumpers. That’s the one shot a defense is forced to concede, because they’re the worst shot in basketball. When LeBron’s making them, it’s game over, but those shots are too difficult to be made on a consistent basis. But when they work, they sure do work.
-LeBron didn’t put on a passing clinic tonight, but he was still very effective as a playmaker. He recorded 8 assists, and many of them led to layups, open threes, or alley-oop jams. Once again, no Cavalier other than LeBron recorded more than one assist on Thursday night. That he can be effective with that little playmaking around him is a testament to just how good he is.
-JJ Hickson continues to look amazing. He’s finishing around the rim from a variety of angles, including awkward ones, and was chasing after every loose ball. He even made some highlight-reel blocks, and it looks like the defensive lightbulb is starting to turn on for him. Before this game, commenter kj noted that the Cavs are 20-0 in games JJ scores 7 or more points. That number is now 21-0.
-Shaq had a very solid game on the offensive end, but his best work was on defense. Wade is the best player in the league at putting the second defender on a string. He’s so good at moving laterally after he gets past the initial defender, and makes a living at getting the helping big out of position. When that happens, he steps into a layup or jumps into their chest to draw the foul. Shaq stayed at home every time Wade got into the paint, and the result was some stuffed drives and only two free throws all night for Wade.
-The Cavs did a great job defending Wade on the perimeter as well. They had his pet jumper from the left elbow well-scouted, and didn’t let him get that shot. Wade went 1-5 from the left elbow area, and three of those jumpers were from outside of 20 feet, which is outside of Wade’s effective range.
-Z missed some rotations on defense, and that led to him watching some easy Wade slams. He did do a good job offensively, and was active around the basket, hit a three from that right corner, and finished with an impressive +12.
-Despite Mike Brown showcasing the Cavs’ length, JaWario had a tough game. They combined to go 1-9 from the field, and the one make was a finish of an alley-oop.
-After missing the first half to tend to his pregnant girlfriend, Boobie had a strong second half, scoring 12 points and making some timely threes. Boobie also set a season high for free throws made and attempted, and came one shy of his career best for free throws made. Good game for Boobie, and thankfully Ms. Cole and her unborn child are doing well.
-I continue to love Danny Green. After air-balling a shot so badly that it barely stayed in the gym, Green hit his next two deep jumpers, showing confidence most rookies don’t possess.
Bullets of Randomness:
When Beasley’s hitting his mid-range jumpers, he looks like an All-Star.
Daequan Cook is the reason I wouldn’t be mad if no Cav got named to the three-point shootout.
36 minutes for Dorell Wright.
Is there a more randomly enjoyable broadcasting moment than when a jump shooter kicks out to draw a foul and Reggie Miller is broadcasting? Here’s the transcript from when Boobie kicked out to draw a foul tonight:
Miller: Looks like he might have done a World B. Free kick-out to draw the foul right there.
(Brief, awkward pause)
Fratello: Or a Reggie Miller kick-out.
Reggie: Why you gotta bring my name into that conversation?
Fratello: You used to kick out against anyone running by you! Players, coaches…
Reggie: Marv, you’re not going to back me up here?
Marv (deadpan): Broadcasters…
The moral of the story: People who went to UCLA will never admit to their sins, and Marv Albert is the lord of the deadpan.
Preview: Heat at Cavaliers, February 4th
February 4th, 2010 by John Krolik
Relevant Statistics:
Pace: Miami 93.0 (28th) vs. Cleveland 23.5 (25th)
Offensive Efficiency: Miami 104.6 (15th) vs. Cleveland 108.0 (5th)
Defensive Efficiency: Miami 103.0 (12th) vs. Cleveland 99.6 (3rd)
Notes:
-The Cavs did a really good job on Wade in the second half of the last game. Flash is coming off an 11-16 performance against the league’s best defense, and you know he’s eager to make up for his slip-ups down the stretch of the first meeting between these teams. The Cavs should stay patient, and try not to panic if he starts making deep jumpers. He’s capable of hitting a three or two, but he’s a 30% three-point shooter on the year and 29% for his career. Play the percentages.
-A good break for the Cavs in terms of scheduling. Miami is on the tail end of a back-to-back, and had to deal with Boston last night. Hopefully the Cavs can push and take advantage.
-Beasley gave Hickson some problems last time. Let’s see if JJ can do a better job sticking to him in this one.
-National game, LeBron vs. Wade, Cavs looking to push their winning streak to double-digits. Cavs should be amped for this one. Hopefully they’ll come out with a purpose and put themselves in the driver’s seat early.
-One thing I do worry about with no West or Williams is how the Cavs would react to playing without the lead. Yet another reason to come out of the locker room ready to play.
-Miami has a thin team, and struggles in the 2nd and fourth quarters. Hopefully the Cavs’ 2nd unit can keep the pressure on during the opening part of the 2nd and 4th.
Links To The Present: February 4th, 2010
February 4th, 2010 by John Krolik
-Windhorst with a must-listen podcast on the trade deadline and other issues. Included: That the 76ers made an offer for Iguodala, that the Pacers are no fun to deal with, that the Cavs don’t trust the Wizards, the Cavs question Amare’s attitude, and much more.
-LeBron James is the Greater Cleveland Sports Commission pro athlete of the year. WFNY was there.
-Chad Ford with a list of impact players most likely to be traded. Amare is #1, Murphy is #2, Iguodala is #5, and Jamison has fallen to #9.
-John Hollinger breaks down some Amare scenarios. The Cavs are included as a possible destination.
-Via Chad Ford’s Twitter, the Suns evidently offered Amare for Iguodala and Dalembert’s expiring.
-How a formula could think Gerald Wallace is more valuable than LeBron James, and why.
-Cleveland season ticket holders have to renew in March.